Day in Review
Overall it was a pretty poor day all all the tracks for us. Our best bet of the day Jetset Lad who was paying $3.80 was luckless missing the jump by 3-4 lengths, getting blocked on the turn and missing the win by a nose or two. Our Best E/W in Mid Summer Music suffered even worse interference as she was starting to get her run in and got bumped out of it. Galbraith was pulled up with 300m to go, he just simply didn’t look like he wanted to race holding his head up and not producing. It looked like he didn’t like the straight. It’s Prince and Maythehorsebemagic have no excuses, they were simply outclassed on the day.
Our day at Flemington started well with a win in the first but we had to wait until the final race of the day to get a second win. We put up a late post on twitter pointing out how the winner of the last was a very good bet due to how the track was working out. It took us until after race 5 to note a HUGE trend for the day. Nothing carrying weight on the track was simply working home well. The lowest winning number for the day was number 5 and there were only 5 places handed out at Flemington to horses carrying numbers 1-4, which is crazy to think about when there were some big chances from those numbers. There was also a trend later in the day for horses who were getting a nice sit for the run and then making a move before the turn to kick clear and win easily. Overall it was a day to forget so onwards to next week.
Horse Racing Form
Flemington, Warwick Farm and Eagle Farm – Saturday 23 June 2012
Welcome to The Profits 23 June 2012 Form. Last week went very well for us all and we hope to repeat it here again. There are a few value runners around for the day while there is a distinct lack of quality short price runners which means we will have a few blow outs. Keep in contact throughout the day by tweeting us at @TheProfitsComAu. Tips will be updated at around 10am to take into account scratchings. Good luck and happy punting!
Eagle Farm Race 5 – Jetset Lad
Eagle Farm Race 7 – Mid Summer Music
Bet Value Bets
Flemington Race 7 – Galbraith
Flemington Race 5 – It’s Prince
Eagle Farm Race 6 – Maythehorsebemagic
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Starting with an interesting runner. Newitt booked on Isabella Snowflake by Price as a first up runner without a trial. The last time we backed Newitt on a first up runner with no trial it drifted from $5s to $20 on Betfair and won easy.
Royal Chassis is the form runner in this race for us. Down 2kg after a 4L win in a 9 horse maiden on a Heavy track… Will be pushed forward and run well.
Dance Card is an interesting runner. Been competing well recently but not been able to get within 2.5L in this class. Will find a few too good.
Finally we look at General Orders whose form line is solid. Good breeding and should run well.
Flemington Race 2
Spinmeister is a horse not to be underestimated. Many of the chances in this race have runs behind ‘Steep’ for their form. Spinmeister ran 1.3L behind Steep two back and was unlucky not to hold on and win last start. Will go forward from barrier 1 and get the run of the race.
Stars In The Sky seems to be a good thing on form lines but we just don’t know how to place it here. Has to improve on last three runs but not by a great amount.
Montana Man won well two back and wasn’t at his best last start. Down 1.5kg from that run.
Under The leaner, River Cruise and Nextess all chances as well.
Flemington Race 3
Swooper was impressive last up on this track and has been penalised 2.5kg which seems fair. Will be hard to hold out.
Hissing Sid is a classy horse but seems weighted out of this.
Crabs has been running well recently and once again gets a good claim down to 54.5kg. Meets Swooper 1.5KG better off so could test here.
LordOfTheParrots is a massively interesting runner. Ignore last start and has a chance here.
Crafty Cruiser is the one horse in this race treated very well by the weight changes. Down 2kg for last up run 1.5L off Swooper meeting it 4.5kg better off. Barrier 8 isn’t bad and will be close.
Flemington Race 4
You Tell Me has been running very well recently. We rate the 0.1L loss to Classy Chloe and are simply forgiving for last up run over a distance that didn’t suit. Will be suited going forward and taking a sit.
Cyclone Andy is an interesting runner. Not the best in the race but has run well recently.
That’s The Way has been put up a $2.80 favourite and we just can’t see it. Sure, the first up run was good but in a poorish time. Excuses don’t equal wins.
Molvivre could run a strong race. Been racing in lesser company and running well.
Finally, GreenEdge has been putting down some ok times.
Flemington Race 5
Wide open race with many a chance.
Any Dream Will Do ran well last up and was unlucky not to win. Has been in form and off same weight could produce best.
Future Solution jumped a big price last week time out after a good 3.3L behind Mawingo and just didn’t collect the money. Newitt onboard means they are keen here.
There’s Only One is a horse we like but find this class of race interesting. Has tried this 2 times and yet to place.. hasbeen close both times but just not good enough. 55kg seems fair and will be surely hard to beat with a perfect sit from barrier 1.
Ignore last start for Wealthy Lad, if produces previous runs form can win.
Let’s Be Happy is a horse with massive potential. Ignore first up run and look forward to this. Back up to 1400m and at Flemington with a 2 from 2 record.
Its Prince won at huge odds two back here over 1600. Down slightly in distance… expect it to run forward and stay on.
Flemington Race 6
Let’s start this race with the top weight runner in Population. Pop has been running some massive races recently and just not getting in. Suited by the up in distance to 1600 for sure and barrier 11 not a risk. Speed maps suggest Newitt may take Population forward and run this at a very slow pace.
Stoneblack ran out of his skin last start. If you ignore the previous race then has a big shot here for sure. This is the type of race he has been waiting to win.
Ebony Rock has been cleaning up money on the easy tracks and ran well last start. Up in weight, should struggle here.
Regular Aussie has won in this class before but never placed at Flemington. He is a good that is a little outclassed here but on recent form could run well.
Finally, Testaguy has been running solid races.
Flemington Race 7
Galbraith was given a poor ride last start and we expect Noonan will ride him correctly today. There isn’t much pace in the race so unfortunately we can’t see him getting a sit so we expect he will go forward, control a very slow first 500m and just let down from there and try and hop clear.
Alpha Promixa has been going from strength to strength having won his last two races. Up again in weight and may be handicapped too well here.
Broken is weighted well off of 52kg. Placed 3 of 4 at this track and has good recent times.
Finally we look at JohannaPine. The class of the race, will be hard to hold out.
Flemington Race 8
Starting with what I see as the most interesting runner. Genuine Spin finished 2nd of 11 behind Aeronwy last start. Aeronwy has gone on and won well in a classier race than this. Seems to be suited by slow/heavy tracks and runs well.
Turner Bayou ran on very well last start to win well. Has been running very good recently. Big chance.
Finally, Burnout ran well for 3rd last start. Don’t dismiss.
Eagle Farm Race 5
This is a great race.
This is between the top two in the race who have massive form lines. Jetset Lad is up to a distance that really does suit. That showed big time last start. Well weighted and barrier will go down well.
Firebolt ran three huge races in the last three getting close to Solzehnitsyn who is a very handy horse. Will run well as well.
Eagle Farm Race 6
An incredibly hard race to pick a winner in.
After the two huge runs put down the last two times out, Kinnersley has to be considered with Munce on board.
Hume can’t be discounted.
Wazn came home huge late last start and is one to watch here.
Warrior Within at big odds boxed on well for 3rd last start.
Maythehorsebmagic is a huge chance here today. Ignore last start when off 60kg and this handicap of 54kg is much more suitable. Will sit midfield and just go on hard late.
Eagle Farm Race 7
Mid Summer Music ran a massive race last start to win the big one at $40s. Jumps shorter here but after that 1.8L win, is still huge value at over $6! A nice E/W bet on a track that she is 1/1 at and a distance that she is 4/3 from 8 at. Especially considering she is down in class.
Others to watch for strong runs from in this race are Red Tracer, Gai’s Choice, Bonnie Mac, Shopaholic and Soft Sand
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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