Horse Racing Form for Caulfield 22 February 2014

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield on 22 February 2014 for Blue Diamond Stakes Day which includes the Oakleigh Plate and various other group races. Talked up as a battle of Earthquake and Rubick this year, the barrier draw threw a spanner in the works with a few outside chances now being talked up. Blue Diamond Stakes Day is always a challenging day on the punt, but there is generally tremendous value available throughout the day including with promotions which I will list below! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet

Caulfield Race 3 Marianne
Everything in this race points towards Marianne. Maps perfectly, weighted well, ran on very very well off a luckless run last start and still almost got there. Even if she finds trouble today, as long as it doesn’t take her momentum, I think she still wins. Has a good length on this bunch.

Next Best

Caulfield Race 6 Moment of Change
How can you be against him today at the price? Mr consistent loves the track and distance. He maps to lead it up and any pace he wants with no other contenders and has come up over the odds due to Bull Point, who would be my lay of the day, being so short. He is tough and he never gives in, especially from out the front.

Best E/W Bet

Caulfield Race 9 Arinosa
Always runs a good race. Ignore last start at course when blocked a million times and never got a run.. wouldn’t have won anyway due to track bias. With the rail out 3m today, expect there to be less of a bias and with 8 races prior, the inside will chop up and provide a good passage for Arinosa to swoop late. Over the odds especially on the E/W. Waller rated her to win today also.

Value runners on the card today

Caulfield Race 6 Lidari
Caulfield Race 7 Nayeli
Caulfield Race 8 Karacatis
Caulfield Race 8 Bel Sprinter
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.

Caulfield Quaddie

Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 9, 13, 18
Quaddie Leg Four:  1, 2, 3, 5, 7

Promotions

Sportsbet
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Ladbrokes
Guelph Special – $2.50 for Guelph to win in the Light Fingers Stakes – Maximum $50 bet
Oakleigh Plate refund – Run 2nd or 3rd? Get a refund! Maximum refund $50.

TAB
Boosted Blue Diamond First 4 Pool – Guaranteed $500,000 pool

Bookmaker
Guelph Special – $2.50 for Guelph to win in the Light Fingers Stakes – Maximum $50 bet
Futurity Stakes Refund – Run 2nd to the starting price favourite? Money back up to $50.

Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
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5. Super Multi Bonus – 50% boost on rugby multis – Maximum bonus $100

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Caulfield Race 1
Finishing Card: Just ignore last start in WFA-G1. Back to R90 after winning a LISTED race. A little harshly done by at weights today off 58kg… but not really. Maps to sit 2 back the rails and will have every chance.
Freshwater Storm: Just ignore last start and rate on two back run and four back runs. Goes very well at 1400m and is undefeated from 2 goes at this track on a dead and good track. Weighted very well today off 55kg and maps very very well to sit 1 out 1 back! Keen.
Morant: Got found out last start at Pakenham. Down in class today and rates well at weights when you take his 1L defeat to Akzar who won well last week and Eraset just at course and further distnace. Drop back to 1400m today is the key issue for me and will have to pass a few in run.
Kitten on the Run: Don’t ignore this cat. Won 4 from 5 at around this distance over in Europe/UK. Didn’t measure up in 2013 mid-year but first and only run at Flemington during the carnival had merit from the back when blocked for runs and didn’t get clear. Could be value today and you may never get close to this quote again.
Commanding Time: First up run was pretty poor in equal class. Oliver takes ride today with 20 days of training on. never won 2nd up or at track and only once at distance. Suited to further.
Vizhaka: Average at best first up. Back in class today but suited over further? Had every chance I think.
Westsouthwest: Hurdler but can we really just class him as this? Has won over these distance previously but needs it wetter to win over this distance imo.
Arch Fire: Just here ofr the run like Westsouthwest preparing for the jumps season.
Final Jest: A key chance here today. Won well mid-week at course and distance in much easier race a few weeks back. Down 5.5kg today gets him in well at the weights. Will sit out the back but can run on well enough and contest this.
Kerthos: First up run in much easier company was good enough to suggest he has the ability to run well enough today to place at least. Did beat SIno Eagle early last year over distance. Position closer to speed today. Chance.

Comments: Four key runners in this for me in Finishing Card, Freshwater Storm, Kitten on The Run and Final Jest. In Final Jest ever going to measure up to group company? I can’t see so. FC and KOTR are both listed winners while Freshwater Storm has put down rated runs that are listed company times.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Freshwaterstorm on top and a medium sized bet. Smaller sized bet on Kitten On The Run.

Caulfield Race 2
Lion of Belfort: Just ignore first up run where had issues and was blocked for runs etc. Back in class today to 3YO company is a big positive. Up to 1200m suits also. Goes well at track. Don’t dismiss. Need luck to get off fence in running.
Fast ‘N Rocking: Showed enough firs tup behind Bull Point for a 5th (close to 2nd really) and down 1kg today. Maps nicely.
Thermal Current: First up for 4 months… we saw him beat Not Listeningtome by 0.2L last prep after blocked for a run as well but finished behind him down the straight at Flemington. His best runs have been on Good tracks clearly over 1200m and looks well in here today. Maps to sit either 1 out 1 back or outside the leader and is suited by either.
Cruden Bay: Showed enough first prep but first up was found out by a good one in Beauty Cash who has shown a bit since.. but this is a big step up in class. I just dunno. Maps nicely to try and lead.. but this level? Mmm not sure.
Not Listenin’tome: Did nothing wrong last prep with a 2nd to Thermal Current and Zoustar. Better weighted today against Thermal current and maps well from barrier 2 to be in the right position. Looks rock bottom odds though.
Consorting: Was an eye catcher last start at Flemington. First up was blocked and blocked for runs in MUCH easier company than this. I wouldn’t count him out fully but others look better in.
Clairvaux: Ok times this prep but not in this class on ratings.
This Is The Show: First up was ok and 2nd up at big odds didn’t get clear running and probably should have gone close behind Turst In A Gust. Last start did a fair bit wrong in country grade. Looks a great place chance.
Harare: How did they even let the horse in the field? 1 run for a 6L LAST at Sale in a maiden.

Comments: Not Listenin’tome looks under the odds today. Fast ‘N’ Rocking looks the value of the race, especially if you consider Bull Point a chance in the later races today. The key for Lion of Belfort is back in class today down to 3YO Grade while Thermal Current is a bit of an unknown as well. Not sure I could play here with any great confidence.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Only play I could suggest here would be to lay Not Listenin’tome at the price. I think he should be closer to $2.40-$2.50. If backing something, I have Lion of Belfort on top from Thermal Current.

Caulfield Race 3
Bound for Earth: First up run was average at best to be honest. Up to 1400m suits better today but is there 3 lengths improvement? I’m not sold.
Diamond Glow: I think you just have to ignore the run last start and rate on first up run. Will run on well enough today and go closer.
Spirits Dance: Continues to win. There from 3 this prep. Just for interest sake, if you owned the horse and put $100 E/W on it each run this prep, you would be close to $10k richer, not including prize money! Even better, if you had $10 on the horse first up then rolled the winnings into the next two races she won, 60k! Tricky barrier today means won’t get as easy a run and Scofield goes back on is interesting.
Marianne: Slow away and blocked for run near turn. Maps to have the perfect run in transit today and as long as gets the run, looks the one to beat at the weights.
Patricia Dawn: Value alert! Ran a cracking race first up when slowly away, blocked for a run near the 100m but still managed 3rd. Barrier hurts but if gets in and a good run will be right there at the finish over a distance that suits. 4 runs 4 placing at track.
Metaphorical: First up. Last prep won an average maiden and then won at Bendigo on Slow. Failed in equal class on a Good track at Flemington. Not the worst in but others appeal more. Maps ok.
Demandz: Ran well enough first up but I can’t see her making the extra leep in this field today. Needs a few more runs or less classy race IMO. Barrier hurts big time.
Miralago: Ran well enough first up behind Metaphor who proved to be cityclass last night. Sneaky barrier and weight today. Bossy takes the ride. Looks a good price to take a place.
Akikara: Couldn’t have on runs this prep. Expect them to try and lead today from barrier 3.

Comments: I tried to look outside of Marianne but I just can’t. If she jumps well she settles in a dream spot and will be very very hard to hold out. Price looks more than right today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Marianne to win.

Caulfield Race 4
Vilanova: First two runs this prep had merit but up to 1600m hasn’t meausred up in easier comapny. Hard to see the win today off those runs to be honest with you.
Countersnip: best runs this prep have been over shorter distances. Didn’t stay the test last start at Caulfield out the front in average times. Hard to see measuring up.
Bringsomething: 2.8L 4th to Divine Calling over 1600m last prep is stron genough form to bring into this. Blocked for runs last start firs tup over 1400m behind Thunder Fantasy. Looks very much well in today but has drawn awkwardly in 9 and will need a bit of luck to get a good spot.
Alpha Beat: Stayed on strongly last start at course and similar distance. Up in distance today no issue but will be far back today. Will be running on and does look classy enough to go close.
Saguaro: Done everything right this prep and times have been sound. Looks to be a solid horse. Can improve on today and go close from B6 sitting outside the leader.
MySonharry: Ran fairly last start at Caulfield. Extra 200m will help him but will be a long way back. Needs luck and improvement.
Accord: Showed nothing first up. Williams sticking with him. Don’t just dismiss him. If money comes, respect.
Calendar Lad: blocked for run last start but probably doesn’t win anyway. Maiden only winner but form lines are solid enough.
Justiceforall: Needed to win last two races to prove has what is needed to win this. At weights I can’t see it.
Deliberate: Thrown in the deep end.. maiden only winner but won in a very reasonable time. $3.7 favourite though? As Samuel L Jackson would say in the ads…. JEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZ. Very short. Maps well enough.
Miss Hissy: WOn well enough last start but that was only a maiden and there was bias. No thanks.
Flametree of Thika: Shouldn’t be allowed to race here. 5L or more off a maiden win!

Comments: How is this a Group 2 race? Wishing my horse was fit, he would have gone close to this, and he isn’t group 2 class, just yet anyway. Horrible start to the Big 6.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Bring Something to win.

Caulfield Race 5
Fiorente: What else can you say? Melb Cup winner. 3rd Cox Plate. 4th Turnbull, 1st in WFA-G2 over 1600m last prep. NEVER won first up is a big key but to be fair, 3.3L 6th behind Atlantic jewel first up last prep behind Atlantic Jewel when 4L slow and blocked for runs. Does have issues with jumping poorly. Weighted equally with the field today, comes in very well.
Green Moon: Can’t carry weight, how often do I have to tell you that? Every run he has in WFA! Suited better to longer races. No thanks.
Mourayan: Better runs shown over further than this. Never won first up. Never placed at track from 7 tries!
Foreteller: Last start won WFA-G1 beating home Puissance De Lune over 1600m. Up to 1800m today. Finished off over 1400m well enough first up but having been on to place that day, I wasn’t really impressed that much with the run. How well is he going? I suspect not as well as 2nd up last prep… but 1800m is around suitable distance.
God Has Spoken: In fine form over in WA having run a close 2nd in Group 2 company. This prep ran 1.8L 6th to Lucky Gray over 1600m. I wouldn’t dismiss fully off these form lines. Can run well.
Pakal: Should have won last start but nothing figured out for him. Up to 1800m today which should suit a bit more and he will be much fitter today. KEY today is a GOOD track. He also knows how to carry weight is another Positive. Maps VERY well as long as Bossy gets him a run.
Star Rolling: Got one of the runs of the race last start but was still run down. Oliver jumps off (obviously). New piolet is always an issue. Could be blocked for a good position and caught 3 wide early.
Bass Strait: Hard to see him measuring up at these weights off that first up run.. needs to jump better than he did last start.
Let’s Make ADeal: Looks over the odds if you ask me. Never far away last prep and even ran well behind Foreteller last prep in WFA-G1 over 1600m. Can run well first up.

Comments: Tough race on paper. Do I want to get heavily involved? Not really.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Pakal 2 units to place 1 unit to win.

Caulfield Race 6
Sizzling: Maps out the back today in what shouldn’t be the hottest tempo race ever run. First up run over 1200m behind Appearance was solid but had the chance and wasn’t good enough. Obviously a chance but hasn’t won anything since 3YO-GP2 grade.
Moment of Change: 0.1L win, 0.2L, 0.1L, 3.5L and 0.5L defeats in WFA-G1 class (one in WFA-G2). He is the one to beat on form and always goes close. The step up to 1400m and leading last start was the key. Goes well at this track and appreciates a good track. Will be hard to pass.
Pinwheel: Ran on very well first up in Sydney last start just nosed by Sizzling for a place. Maps to sit equally forward today and can finish off the race well enough. Step up to 1400m the best for him? Not sure.
Sertorius: A tough bloke this guy. Takes a sit today midfield. Thrown in the deep end here over 1400m considering his WFA-G2 win last prep was over 2400m? Won 2 and placed 1 from 3 at track. Goes well first up and only missed a place once really at runs around this distance. Good track as well… I can’t see him being far off but at the same time, I prefer others.
Smokin’ Joey: Just ignore the run over in WA. Rate him on his 2nd and 3rd up runs last prep. He will have been trained on for this since. Barrier an issue and will have to fly from a mile back today. Has the ability to do it but may be found out in WFA.
Clear For Action: Not in this class on runs this prep or last prep over here. No thanks. Placement looks greedy.
Lidari: The value runner of the race.. ran Fiorente to 0.3L at MV over 1600m to end last prep and won first up in Open grade. Proved last prep that WFA is in the legs and this distance suits. Only run at trakc was a win… Maps well and looks overs.
Polanski: Very progressive last prep. Has had issues getting to the races this prep with skin issues and that is a warning sign. First run in WFA instead of 3YO is a concern for me and this horse has shown his best over 1800m+. I think he is better at 1600m and over and just can’t suggest he wins this.
Bull Point: Looks a big lay today in a very competitive Futurity Stakes. How often do we see 3YO’s take this step to WFA-G1, go up at a low price and get done? It’s A Dundeel was one of them. Onto the form. The win first up we were on. He was rated well and won fairly well. The 2nd placed horse finished well behind him but doesn’t look anything special. I’m not saying Bull Point can’t win, I’m saying Bull Point is under the odds. In his first prep he put some very good runs in but showed some cat tendencies, especially that 0.1L loss to Stamina. How much improvement does he have to give today getting only 3.5kg on the older horses? I think he needs to find at least a length to go close.

Comments: I keep coming back to Moment of Change. He goes close and the odds are correct today. Lidari looks the blowout chance at odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Moment of Change to win. Smaller win bet on Lidari.

Caulfield Race 7
Boomwaa: Showed some class with a big Flemington win beating some pretenders and then found two too good up in Sydney and was pantsed in WFA-G1 last start. Can’t see him placing.
Rubick: Wasn’t hurried to the front last start but from barrier 10 today there will certainly be more urgency. Looked to be dying on his run and the key is extra 100m today. Giving 2kg to Earthquake.. how often have you seen a 2YO able to produce three of these runs in a row and peak for the 3rd one? Not often. Have to be a SUPERSTAR to win today. Looks under the correct odds to me. Deserves to be a favourite, just not this short.
Mohave: Ran poorly last start but was vetted at the barrier (passed fit). Maps very well today but has to find a lot more that i don’t think is there.
Chivalry: Ridden cold last start and went WOOSH but was all too late. Barrier 5 today, expect him to be more on-pace than last start, sitting midfield. He is a genuine chance and if you rate his win over Bugatty who wasn’t disgraced in WFA-G1, then he comes into this with claims.
Nostradamus: Was the other horse running on late with Chivalry. Poor barrier today hurts his chances but will try chance a spot just further back than midfield today. Has the quality, just needs to get the run.
Jabali: Caught my eye last start behind Rubick. Got out of stride about the 100m which hurt his run watching the replays. He was closing very well. Barrier 3 today, you know he will get an absolutely charged run and if Oliver can produce a gem of a ride, he could very much steal this race. Big Chance.
Cornrow: Didn’t do much right in the staight laying in. Ran home well enough. Could place.
Zululand: A bit of an ignore run last start but is he this quality? I doubt it.
Francesco: Ran well enough last start without threatning. A minor contendor here for F4.
Malaguerra: Didn’t have the opportunity to run on in straight when blocked but is he good enough? Magnus colts better at 3. TOugh race no thanks.
Stratum Star: A chance at big odds, Stratum Star was blocked for a run in the straight and you could argue he should have been much closer in the end. No thrills run from Newitt to come. Will go back and will run on. Good track will help. If he can sit say 13th in run instead of 17th, then He has a big chance. Over Odds
Earthquake: The one to beat for mine. She has done absolutely nothing wrong. Finds herself 2kg better off today than the males as you know. Barrier is the only issue. I think she wins.
Nayeli: Probably the most interesting runner of the lot. Could kick up and lead this race from the barrier. Beat Bugatty by 2.3L and Peggy Jean by 2L this prep. The form lines are there and she is very very very hard to ignore.
Golconda: Showed enough last prep but this prep hasn’t shown anything to suggest can go close.
Top Dolly: Lame after race first up. Just ignore this run and rate on previous run last prep. WIll be a long way back is the issue and barrier hurt.
Piacenza: Ran well enough last start but can’t see the improvement.

Comments: The key chances are in no order: Earthquake, Rubick, Jabali, Nayeli, Stratum Star and Chivarlry.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Earthquake to win. Nayeli 2nd pick and smaller bet.

Caulfield Race 8
Bel Sprinter: Won 5 from 6 first up. Won 4 in this class previously. Goes best on a GOOD surface which didn’t get last first up at MV. Was a hard surface to get traction on. Will be hitting the line hard and looks over the odds today. Loves the track.
Spirit of Boom: Only won once first up from 10 goes but always runs well. All 5 runs last prep in Group 2 and then finally in a WFA-G1 were all within 1.5L of a win or winning. Weighted ok today also. Maps poorly though is an issue.
Lankan Rupee: Class run last start at course and distance with a leader bias rail playing out nicely. The time was very fast. The obvious chance… does he get the lead today? Not sure? Does it matter? No? He is AS good with a sit.
General Truce: He is in fine form. Didn’t expect him to go so close last start but the rail was playing out nicely and he ran a solid time. Down 5kg today and up to this class, looks over the odds and could place. Barrier the issue.
First Command: Ran well enough last start but won’t beat Lankan Rupee today.
Richie’s Vibe: Ignore last start at Mornington when had breathing issues. Rate on previous runs including WFA and he comes in well at the weights. Will be VERY far back.
Dystopia: Rates to win today off 53.5kg. Won this race last start. Barrier 3 suits so well and last prep finished with a 1.5L win over Shamal Wind. Meets her much better today at weights also and reminds me a lot of Mrs Onassis from last year. Maps well.
Happy Galaxy: A talent who looks to have been set for this race. No trial. Where do they sit in running from B1?
Knoydart: Massive win last start in much easier grade at Mornington. Weighted nicely coming into this and can win.
Vatican: Last star trun had a lot of merit. Going well and could sneak a place if gets in from barrier 14.
Shamal Wind: A few people are picking her as their bet from barrier 2 and off 52.5kg she comes in well but she is giving weight to a few who have beaten her previous or who come into this well off. Will need luck!
Flamberge: I have a lot of time for him. Great in 3YO and won last start at Flemington down the straight impressively in Group 3 company. Will need to push forward from a wide gate.. untested over this speed. Odds are slightly overs.
Karacatis: Absolutely set for this race today. CAN run a very fast 1200m so a very fast 1100m from barrier 4 off 52kg looks set. The best chance at odds for mine.
Magnus Reign: Never runs a bad race. Will be suited by a fast 1100m but looks outclassed to me.
Kuroshio: 51kg today, seems to be giving a few others too much weight if you ask me based on his talentes. Hasn’t proven himself off a fast tempo either.
Gregers: Good horse but won’t measure up in Group 1 class if you ask me right now. Runs were all solid enough in 3F-GP races but no thanks.
Iconic: Continutes to run well without winning. Hard to have even at weights.
Minaj: If there was to be one that could go close at a low weight, it’s her. 50kg, first up run when LOST A PLATE won by 5.5L at MV eased up as well. Brained them.. is something special IMO.

Comments: Several chances here. I will be betting on at least 3 from my quaddie list due to prices that are overs.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 9, 13, 18
Strategy: Lankan Rupee to win. Smaller bet on Karacatis who is great value today.

Caulfield Race 9
Arinosa: Just ignore first up run and rate on runs last prep. Best horse in race and swoopers generally have every chance this late in the day at Caulfield.
Bonaria: Blocked for runs ridden for luck first up. up to 1400m suits today. Will need luck again from barrier 1 but has to be considered.
Keep De Rose: Never won first up but never far away first up either. Never won at distance but, you guessed it, placed both times. HAS won at track last prep over 1800m. Won 3 from 4 on Good tracks. Maps very well. Can’t be ignored.
Bippo No Bungus: Can on nicely first up in Melbourne over the 1200m for 4th. Up to 1400m will suit but best she has shown has been 1600m and onwards. Awkward barrier and maps midfield. Can run well.
Danestroem: Maps to sit outside of the leader today. Best runs have been over 1200m but can go fine over 1400m. Just missed last start at Caulfield, but not sure if they get it much slower today with the same leaders in this one. Can win.
Hai Lil: Solid enough first up behind You Can Dance but that form didn’t work out last night with You Can Dance failing at MV. Best has been seen over 1400-1600m. Will be far back. Hasn’t seen this weight marking in a long time.
Hazard: Ran on well enough first up over the 1200m when trainer wasn’t expecting her to win. Got 3rd that day. Heavily back in class today and up in distance.. Maps to sit midfield today. If the money comes, pay attention.. but probably not long enough between runs to find best?
Hi Belle: Plop. Showed nothing first up. Better over this distance and goes well enough at track and on this type of surface. Probably have to forgive that first up run? Better first up than 2nd up on records.
Kneeling: First up went close here in Listed company over 1200m. 2nd up ridden out front was exposed at Flemington off a hot time and then last start in Tassy seemed to ahve her chances. Take a sit midfield today? Continues to find a few too good.
Angelic Lass: Not going well enough off firs tup run and wants it much wetter than this.

Comments: Based on her best runs, it’s hard to ignore Arinosa at the price. Bonaria looks a big threat if gets the right run while DaneStroem will be hard to pass and even Keep De Rose could get clear at the 300m and hit the lead in the straight.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Arinosa E/W

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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