Horse Racing Form for Caulfield and Randwick Monday 1 April 2013

Welcome to The Profits form for Caulfield and Randwick. The fields are not as fruitful as Saturday but we have covered all 8 races at Caulfield and two with fields of interest at Randwick. Saturday provided one of the best days we have had on record with 2 of the 5 best bets getting up at the prices of $10 and $12. It was good getting back into the big winning books.  As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Navorina

Next Best
Randwick Race 8 Mouro

Best Value
Caulfield Race 7 Bishops Castle

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Randwick Race 6
Jacquinot Bay didn’t measure up at Group level and looked a little flat. Should be peaking again 3rd up and up to preferred distance. Can go forward or back. Price is right.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Has huge potential and should be beating these if come back at 80% this prep (proved he had with first up run).

Randwick Race 8
A very competitive race. Mouro looks the one with the most upside returning today. Mr Edison and Hawkspur look to be the main dangers.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Happy to back both here.

Caulfield Race 1
Circle The Globe: Ran well enough last start when had to do a lot of work wide at Moonee Valley on a frontrunner track. Down in class today and only up 0.5kg after claim seems fair. Form behind Champagne Shisha is solid also frm first up run.
Freezy: Failed first up and then couldn’t win in lesser company. Only down 2kg today. Only won a maiden in Italy. No thanks.
Pass The Post: Has won at track and in class before. Improved last start but just couldn’t get the win. Needs to find a length more today.
Green Roller: A horse with huge upside. Should take a sit today and has a big chance. Weighted well down in class.
Sapphire Princess: Up 2.5kg today and meets Circle The Globe 2kg worth off today which looks a bit harsh. Been running on well recently but not getting close enough.
Split The Faith: Can’t see the progression to this.
Bec Said No Credit: Good run two back behind Sino Eagle at Sandown and simply ignore last start at MV. Has ability.
Chateau Latour: Maiden winner. Does have claims.
Newline: Needs to show more today than previous runs.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Top 2 look the key runners here. Start the day with small bets.

Caulfield Race 2
Sambora: Hard to know how he will measure up in this class. Happy to bet around him.
Magical King: Ran well enough 2nd last start at Moonee Valley. Up in class today but in with a chance.
Friday Hussy: Big run last start at Moonee Valley and also two previous runs. Weighted to win today.
Kolokotronis: Nice win last start at Sale. If Pass the Post wins the previous race, could provide a good form line.
Surface Tension: Chucked into the deep end last start and didn’t run too badly. Back to winable grade.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: If Pass the Post surprises and wins the previous, I’m not sure I want to get involved here as I give Kolokotronis more of a chance. Friday Hussy the way to go as long as PTP doesn’t win R1.

Caulfield Race 3
Felidea: Simply huge win last start at Bendigo. Down in class today and up 4.5kg. Meets Rifleman 4k worse off today though for a 2.5L win.
Rifleman: Keeps running well but given an average barrier today, needs to find 2.5L on Felidea for 4kg. Seems doable but needs to get in from out wide.
Nice and Neat: Good last prep but has only won once first up previously.
Our Protocol: Disappointing last start in what looked harder company that this. Has the ability if gets the right run.
Horacio: Keeps running well but this is a step up in class at the weights.
Some Class: Hard to see the progression.
Taxi Driver: Big win last start at Moonee Valley and ran well up in Sydney as well. Will be pushing forward to get a strong run and will be very hard to pass.
Little Bro: Form lines very solid with 3rd to Orlando’s Bridge last start who ran 3rd to Plucky Belle at Caulfield on Saturday in much harder company. 2nd to The New Boy on form lines seems very solid also. Big chance at the weights.
Gracie Louise: Weighted to win today off 52.5kg, Gracie Louise can be forgiven for last start and look to previous two runs.
Bashan: Never won first up. Has ability and win wouldn’t shock.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Really like the form lines of Little Bro here but Gracie Louise has a big chance and you cannot deny that Felieda is a very strong horse.

Caulfield Race 4
Lamingtons: Since first up run has been outclassed. Hard to see today.
Talk Of Angels: Good win last start but this is much harder company.
Yuleba: Doesn’t look good enough to win here off weight.
Beach Front: Progressive type. Ran very well last start. Don’t dismiss.
Navorina: Strong second to Angels Beach 2nd up this prep after a very good win first up. Will measure up and is the one to beat.
Razeena: Ran well enough last start but harshly treated at the weights. Still has a good chance.
Sheza Single Girl: Back in class big time today but didn’t show anything first two starts.
Lady Blackman: Maiden winner. Could progress but doubt it.
Titania Star: Not up to this level of race.
Golden Olive: Hard to see the progression.
Speedy Holly: Time was ok on win but probably wants wet tracks.
Sea Horse: Showed nothing last prep. Can’t see the win here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Very keen on Navorina here. Razeena probably the main threat and deserves a small saver.

Caulfield Race 5
Prussian Power: Expect him to go back today after going forward last start didn’t work. If produces similar run to two back, can win, but needs to improve again today.
Sandusky City: Little harsh up 2kg today, but last start run was quite impressive and should improve.
Simmo: Not sure he is suited to this distance. Looking for further. Can run well still.
Observer: Good win last start but this is much harder class.
Signal Fire: Good run last start at werribie. Win wouldn’t shock.
Sutanoc: Winning in country grade (very well last start). This is much harder.
Redangelo: Williams booked is interesting. Never won first up big issue.
What A Treat: Hard to see her overcoming the loss to Observer.
Awaken The Dragon: Very strong form lines from last start. Didn’t run well up in class but back in similar company to this kept going close. Weighted nicely today and speed maps well.
Rockshaft: Form lines are decent enough but not won since start of 2011!
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Awaken The Dragon worth the gamble to have trained on. Only needs to find half a length and will win today.

Caulfield Race 6
Pixie Eyes: Ran very well last start over 1000m and down in class today. After claim, only up 0.5kg. Big chance.
Poplin: A horse who was running in England at FM-LR level (over further) and had placed at this distance. This is HUGELY down in class and off 57kg looks well in and over the odds.
Peronne Lady: Up in class again today but has been running well. Needs to show more though.
Martindale Hall: Can’t see the extra progression today.
Cinnamon Sticks: Win wouldn’t shock but looks outclassed.
Notice Received: Very strong run last prep behind Le Roi at morphetville. Has won at this distance previously. Big Chance.
Reigning Lass: Doesn’t look good enough on previous two runs and bad barrier.
Unscrupulous: Won last two in row but step up again in class. Has ability.
Arrogant Cat: Keeps putting in strong runs. Needs to find a few more lengths.
Leica Duel: Badly mapped. Never won first up and not up to this class.
Codice Fiscale: Looking for further and never won first up.
Silenzia Blue: Moody runner with huge upside. Expect a bold run.
Al Maisan: Should position well in run and has the ability to go close once again.
Suite Sucess: Didn’t run well enough first up to suggest can win this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 8, 14
Strategy: Pixie Eyes will go very close today.

Caulfield Race 7
Electric Fusion: Ran well enough first up and should run well second up down in class big time. Don’t count him out.
Magnus Reign: Ran very well two back at Moonee Valley and then so close last start. Taxi Driver could frank form today in early race. Will go close today.
Mareeza: Ran 2nd in Group 3 class last prep. Returns today and if produces similar runs is one of the ones to beat.
Melting Pot: Progressive type who won very well last start at Bendigo. Big chance today, only issue is speedmap.
Stars In The Sky: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest can improve today.
Tricky Glen: Big run behind Melting Pot last start. In this.
Coins: Ran well enough last prep, out of Snowden yard, needs to have found another length but maps ok.
Bishops Castle: Maps very well today. Was huge last start behind Bradman at Bendigo and form lines around that race are strong. Weighted to win here.
Ephemera: Ran well enough from the back of the field at MV last start. Way down in class but will struggle to get a good spot.
Falcent: Weighted much better than Melting Pot today and speedmaps perfectly. Big chance.
Zombie Dancer: Big win over 1600m last start but this looks much harder and better suited to 1200m.
Bon Vacance: Could run very well today down in class. Keep an eye on this one.
Samuelsson: Has ability but up against it today on previous form.
Kachada: Only won a maiden.
Rock Vantage: Only won a maiden.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 4, 10, 13, 15
Strategy: Many chance in this race. The two top picks look very good and the ones to be on.. but the two speculation bets also big chances.

Caulfield Race 8
Daybreak: Equal class and weight today after running very well last start behind Taxi Driver. Big issue is gate today.
Littlebitaluck: Huge run last start from dead last. Will be hitting the line hard.
Roman Eye: Hard to see the win on last start run.
Poitier: Two strong runs this prep just couldn’t get there. Down in weight today and that may be the difference. Speed maps to win.
Lord Durante: Slowly away and blocked for run last start. Looked to be the one who would win if jumped well.
Severn Road: Can’t see the progression here. Needs further.
Cyclone Andy: Ran ok last start and equal weight. Others look better.
Devonshire Duke: Last prep 3rd to Fat Al over 1400m looks fairly solid. Couldn’t win an easier race last start though.
Skating For Gold: Won 2 of last 3 races and could run well again today.
Stanzior: Not good enough.
Al Ragno: Only won a maiden. Has ability.
Secret Toy Bizness: Not good enough for this on first two runs.
Hirad: Big win in very easy company. Not sure can run as well here.
Beneficiary: Ran 1L behind Who Stole My Sock a few runs back. Has the ability to win but barrier is bad today.
Northern Edge: Not good enough for this class.
Resetalenko: Has to find more today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 6, 7, 17, 18
Strategy: Happy to back the top two here.

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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