Horse Racing Form for Caulfield, Eagle Farm and Morphetville Saturday 11 May 2013

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Saturday 11 May. We take a look at the full Caulfield card while picking and choosing from Eagle Farm and Morphetville with Rosehill having no stand out races. As always, I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 It Is Written

Next Best
Caulfield Race 3 Cosmic Causeway

Best Value
Morphetville Race 7 Amaethon

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Morphetville Race 7
Moment of Change: Ignore last start up in Sydney and look to previous run. Rates to win but is giving most runners a lot of weight. Looks the right price.
Platelet: Big big bi win last start but this looks harder.
General Truce: Was huge last start and down in weight today. From barrier 3 sits further forward today.
Outlandish Lad: Doesn’t look good enough on previous runs.
Galah: Hard to see the win first up in this level of class.
Riziz: If produces two back form has a chance, but looks outclassed.
Facile Tigre: Big 2nd last prep to Mrs Onassis in Group 1. Has every chance today.
Amaethon: Huge formlines this horse. Last two preps has won in times of 1:08’s. Down 6kg today after two solid runs and rates to win today. Will position further forward today. A big price being offered for him!
Zedi Knight: Ran well enough behind Vatican last start but needs to find another step up.
Conservatorium: Hasn’t won since 2011. Hard to see the win on first up run.
Perturbo: Form two back is solid but failed last start.
Justify That: Can’t justify backing today.
Karacatis: Solid run last start behind General truce and El Prado Gold form is solid now also. has ability.
Meadows Jim: Average run last start. Can place.
Yosei: Continues to be blocked for runs but meets Platelet 4kg better off today. Big chance.
Altar: Weighted better today just like Yosei.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Love the price for Amaethon here. Going 2 units place 1 unit win with a saver on Moment of Change.

Eagle Farm Race 7
Buffering: Big start to finish win last start. Looks to be in career best form and deserves a Group 1. Big chance.
Rain Affair: Very strong run last start behind All Too Hard. Can’t dismiss but will have Buffering with him the whole trip.
Temple of Boom: Can’t see a win off last start run.
Spirit of Boom: Can’t see a turn around of last starts difference.
Rarefied: Good win in listed class last start but this is beyond him.
Jetset Lad: New Zealand runner with decent form but not in this IMO.
Better Than Ready: Good win last start but looking over previous runs needs to find much more.
Your Song: Progressive type who should run well first up. Needs to find 110% today.
Reflectance: Not good enough on recent form.
Sea Siren: Very poor this prep the last two runs. Has to improve 4-5Ls
Emmalene: Not good enough for this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing Buffering and savering Rain Affair here looks a very solid play. Will be putting my Saver on Rain Affair through Betfair’s Tote Extra product (Money back up to $50 if Buffering wins the race by 1 Length or more).

Caulfield Race 1
Gracious Prospect: Ran very well two back in 2Y-GP3 class and solid on heavy last start. Back to 1440m suits and weighted well here today. The one to beat.
Great De Here: Won a 4 horse maiden well but you expected it. Needs to find a fair bit more today.
Throw The King: Showed enough first up but has to find a few more lengths.
Inafrenzy: Can’t have on first two runs this prep.
Polanski: Hard to see the progression.
Western Heir: Failed firs tup. Has to improve on from that but not the best in this race.
Zennita: First start and market will be your guide.
I’m An Outoftowner: Ran very well four back behind San Diego but hasn’t measured up since. Better suited to lesser distances it seems.
Prime Motive: Not good enough on last prep but you never know first up.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Gracious Prospect is the best in this race with Great De Here the main danger. Looks a big price.

Caulfield Race 2
Crucial: Consistent mare who continues to run well. Weighted well today off 57kg and off previous two runs this prep looks to go close from barrier 6 today..
Manhattan Maid: Up in weight today and can’t see the progresison on previous runs. Other’s look better in. Never won at distance before.
Motto’s Gem: Continues to run well and go close but just can’t break though. Up in class and down in weight. Will need luck.
Orlando’s Bride: Weighted well enough today to run well on previous form. May just not measure up to class.
Tranquera: Classy horse who hasn’t shown enough the first two starts this prep. One more run then back I suspect.
Imoto: Unlucky to not win last start. Up in class today and poorly weighted against others, but can go close.
Moscow Pearl: Went very close last start but probably the worst weighted from that race here today off 51kg.
Barbara Joy: Outclassed here.
Belle Diva: Outclassed.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Crucial is the class runner here and weighted well enough today. Maps well.

Caulfield Race 3
Under The Eiffel: Continues to run well but just doesn’t get the win. Is he coming to the end of his prep or one last win in him?
Cosmic Causeway: Big win last start over Whisper Downs and that form looks even better off Whisper Downs impressive win last week. Big chance and suited from barrier 3. Loves Caulfield.
Oregon Spirit: Weighted well enough to go close today. Good win last start.
Blackie: Improved run last start and Boss goes on. Has to find a length more though.
De Fine Lago: Ran well enough from dead last first up. Goes better at this distance but probably wants further.
The New Boy: Ignore last start. Got given a horrible ride by the jockey. From barrier 1 will push forward and lead this up.. Newitt knows the horse and is weighted well enough to win this. Big chance.
Angelology: Never won first up or in class but won 3 from 7 at distance. Looks to be suited to further though at best.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Cosmic Causeway looks very hard to beat here today while The New Boy will go close and has to be savered.

Caulfield Race 4
Flamberge: Went further back than previously last start due to barrier 10. From barrier 4 today and off 57kg after claim is a big chance. Probably a better horse over 1000m but goes well enough at the distance.
Lankan Rupee: Did enough last start but couldn’t get the win. Down 1.5kg after claims today and meets Flamberge 2kg better off. Barrier 5 and will take a sit again. Never won at distance but a 0.3L 3rd at course and distance behind Snitzerland is good enough.
Grand Emperor: Won’t measure up on last two runs but back to this distance suits.
Awesome Bro: Didn’t show much last start and weighted poorly today.
Saturn Rock: Disappointing two back but won well in easier company in Adelaide. Weighted well enough to go well.
Falcent: Very wide last start and can sit further forward from barrier 6. Weighted to win today off 53kg after claims.
Prelusive Strike: Wins in easier company. Can’t see this.
Beyond Infinity: Won a very poorly rated race in ok time. Hard to see the progression but the 9L win three back was impressive.
Primitive Man: Looks massive overs if can produce a run similar to that behind Meliora last prep.
Sistine Demon: Up 2kg today. Hard to see the win on that alone. Does look good though.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Falcent looks the one to beat while Lankan Rupee will go close also.

Caulfield Race 5
Cardinal Virtue: Probably back in class today from previous run. Will prefer the extra 100m today but up to 58.kg looks a little hard coming off sickness.
Pago Rock: A horse with huge potential but hasn’t been running for a while. Weighted well enough and has won 4 from 5 first up. Big chance if fit!
Vatican: Big win last start. Needs to find something special to repeat that effort at weights up 3.5kg.
It Is Written: Up 2.5kg today but then down 3kg after claiming so meets Vatican significantly better at the weights. Barrier 10 no the best but won’t matter. Rates to win.
Rockpecker: Didn’t show enough last prep and never won from 11 first up attempts.
Alpha Proxima: I thought he ran on ok first up. Back down to 57kg but needs another run IMO. Still a slight chance.
Dream Face: Not up to this class at the weights.
Overtake: Hard to see the win off previous form and how long he has been off. Does have an ok record first up but 0 wins or places from 5 at track.
Cellarmaster: Never won first up and better suited to further, but has claims to go close.
Bolton: Hard to see him have the win in him first up.
Dee Bee Nine: Continues to run well and go close over in Adelaide. Up in class today but off 52kg has a chance.
Intencion: Hard one to rate. Another Prelate is a good horse but didn’t show much after that. Could shock.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 9
Strategy: It Is Written is a quality horse and the price looks value at the weights. Saver Pago Rock.

Caulfield Race 6
Benenden: Poor run last start. Weighted better today but has to show a lot more today.
Big Chill: Hard to see the improvement.
Ephemera: Ran well enough last start but this is much harder and poorly weighted.
Maluti: Good run two back and then couldn’t win in easier company last start at Mornington. Hard to see the progression today.
Hamam: Ran well here two back behind Sino Eagle blocked for run and losing a blame. Disappointed last start. Can only improve on that run.
Rosscarberry: Not good enough on last start.
Tyanna: Been poor the last three runs. No thanks.
Nautical: Ran well last two starts. Weighted equally today and should be going close today from barrier 4.
Explosive Cross: Hard to see the win today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Not really a fan of this race.

Caulfield Race 7
Success Dostta: Big win last start at distance in Adelaide. Down in class today and up 1kg only. How good was that race compared to this is the issue.
Anudjawun: Hasn’t won since 2010. Not going well enough.
Midsummer Sun: Import alert! Won well enough in Adelaide over 1600m. Boss goes on and down in class and up 4.5kg. Will love this distance. Has a 5th to Mount Athos on his record.
Red Eye Special: Ran very well last start at Bendigo and down 1kg today. May just have turned a corner.
King’s A Star: Not in this off last two runs.
The Big Steel: Ran ok last start but not in this off form.
Laspiel: Disappointing last start but previous run was solid. Up 1.5kg after claims a little harsh.
Fulgur: Unlucky 2nd last start. Up 1.5kg today but deserved. Go close today.
Dowager Queen: Not going well enough.
Harry Trimbole: Ran better than expected last start and weighted well enough again today. A chance.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 9, 11
Strategy: I think the two imports are the BEST in the race… but the pace will be run to suit Harry Trimbole.

Caulfield Race 8
Serene Star: BIG win last start. Most will say Vibrant Rouge was ‘unlucky’ and they may be right.. but Serene Star is down 3.5kg today while Vibrant is equal weight. Has a VERY good record at Caulfield in the last race.
Honey Flower: Ran well enough in Group 3 last start at Morphetville but suspect needs to improve to win this at weights.
Elite Elle: Ran a full 1 second faster last star than the start behind up 0.5kg as well. Was a stupid pace and a poor ride. Sadler off and Hill on. Down 3kg today is in well.
Royal Bender: Hard to see progression after first up loss.
Vibrant Rouge: A non-winner horse due to the rides Thornton has given her. Need to put a real jockey on her and she will start winning.
Vain Attraction: Hard to see the win on last four runs.
Ametsis: I think this horse has a big future. Watch first up run but weighted well enough to win.
Aneto: Does a lot of work wrong during runs. Looks better suited to heavy this prep. Never won at class.
Spot On Maggie: Big run last start behind Lucky Penny. From barrier 1 will need a lot of luck.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 4, 6, 9
Strategy: Very happy to back Elite Elle and Serene Star here for a nice return at the end of the day.

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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