Horse Racing Form for Flemington Thursday 25 April 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Flemington on ANZAC Day. Nothing really stood out today at Warwick Farm which meant it would be a waste of time to waste too much time looking at the card, instead, more research will be put into Saturday’s races.

There isn’t often that I will ask our readers to do something. We provide our service for free (always will) and expect nothing in return. But on a day such as this, it is time to reflect and give a little back for those good men and women who lost their lives to protect the freedoms we enjoy today. The ANZAC Day Appeal is a very worth cause and even a gold coin donation can make the biggest difference, so please, look for someone selling badge today and wear it with honour.

I will be attending the ANZAC Day AFL match at the MCG today so interaction will be lower than normal on twitter. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting. Lest we forget.

Best Bet
Race 1 Long John

Next Best
Race 2 Garud

Best Value
Race 8 Moscow Pearl

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Flemington Race 1
Long John: Huge run last start carrying the weight from start to finish. Looks to be VERY talented. The price is value.
Tikitour: Only won a maiden.. Ran well enough behind Charles in Charge two back though. Should run well
Crime Fighter: Can’t see him turning the tables today.
Lucky Ol’Sun: Ran ok in trial but this looks a hard first up race.
Australian Venture: Didn’t show enough first up.
Kincaple Chief: Doesn’t look progressive enough.
Jayhawk: Not good enough.
Leka Secret: Not good enough.
Ready Cuz: Up in class today but ran very well in a slowly run race. Can compete.
I’M An Outoftowner: Couldn’t win a Kyneton maiden. Has to find much more.
Hey Mariane: Not in this.
Confidence 95%
Strategy: Going big on Long John.

Flemington Race 2
Dame Claire: Disappointing last start but should be better here today. Issue is the weight but is top quality.
Garud: Ran well enough first up and then last start when blocked for run went close. Looks to be the best in this race and weighted to win. Will eat up the extra 600m.
Thubiaan: Ran well enough the last two starts and will go close once again today. Only issue is if the form holds up, probably not.
Unchain My Heart: Not done much this prep but last start ran well enough from the back behind Vittoria. As with Thubiann, not sure the form will hold up.
Urban Explorer: Shown nothing this prep. Much harder today.
Compound: Ran well enough last start but this is significantly harder. Not classy enough.
Cottonwood Sky: Hasn’t won in a while and never gone well in this class even in NZ. No thanks.
By His Design: Only won a maiden.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Very keen Garud here. Saver Dame Claire if you wish but I’m happy to go Garud solid here.

Flemington Race 3
Return Journey: Lots of excuses first up when was very poor. Should be able to improve but probably rather watch and see how goes today.
Kolonga: Kept putting in ‘decent’ runs last prep. Money suggests hasn’t trained on well enough today. Hasn’t win for more than a year. Still, has the ability to go ok.
Lateva: Good 4th to Lady Melksham first up this prep in much harder company and then won 2nd up in harder company than this over 1000m. Looks to be the one to beat today.
Legcut: Good last prep but needs to have trained on significantly today.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Progressive type who won first two races and then found a few too good since. Keeps running solid times nad off 54.5kg today after claims comes in very well. Issue is that Vicario who ran in front of her didn’t measure up in higher class last start.
Truffle: Outclassed in this company today.
Double Dee: Lots went wrong last start and could run better today. Still needs to find a lot more today.
Imprimis: Couldn’t win a CL1 so hard to see a win here.
Razeena: Ran well enough behind Lamingtons last start and needs to find a lot more today. Still a chance.
Titania Star: Ran very well for a maiden winner last start. Does need to show a bit more in this class.
Vain Queen: Form lines around Vain Queen look sound and the times were solid. Maybe a little short though?
Wokpool: Ran well enough last prep but has to have trained on very well to be in this.
Kamarla Rose: Hard to see the progression, but if trained on well enough, can place.
Mrs Hadlee: Put in one very good run last start. Nolen on today makes you think can and will go close. Value today.
Kenji Doll: Hard to see the progression.
Rain Fast: Not in this.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Two with a chance at big odds but doubt I will have a go.

Flemington Race 4
Fiumicino: Never won first up and only placed once first up from 9 starts. Also never placed at this track.
Prince of Capers: Love this horse but hasn’t shown us enough this prep to back today.
Verdant: Ran on very well last start at course and distance. Up 4kg today so hard to see the win.. needs further.
Prizum: Ignore last start and look to two back behind Jet Away. Will take a sit from barrier 5 today and off 54kg go very well. Never won in class but keeps running well.
Blackie: Not good enough for this on previous runs.
Eraset: Ran well enough two back but then back to normal self last start. Hard to see the win from the barrier.
Final Command: Good win two back but last start didn’t measure up. Kah over to claim on the horse down to 52.5kg and gives the horse every chance.
Oregon Spirit: Big win two back but last start didn’t have the legs to run them down at the valley. Better suited today off 52kg and could be value.
Chilie Express: Nice win last start at Sandown. Down 4.5kg today and up in class but that win was impressive. Has good form lines.
Verification: Equally weighted today from last start and could be value at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Sit this one out. Too many chances.

Flemington Race 5
Corvidae: Ran well enough last start at Cranbourne but looks to be in harder class at equal weight. Had every chance on a slow pace and couldn’t win.
Hollowlea: Hasn’t won since 2010 and hasn’t shown anything recently.
Morant: Blocked for run last start and went very close off a very good run. Could be peaking now.
Mister Milton: Hasn’t won in a while and first two runs this prep not good enough it seems.
Sheahan: Not suited by this distance or class first up.
Upbeat: Ran well enough last prep but probably looking for further and never won first up.
Youbolt: Ignore last two runs and look to three previous runs where positioned further forward and went close each time. Weighted well enough.
Jayconi: Ran well enough last start when ridden back in the field. Should position further forward today and run well.
Rebel Truce: Interesting form lines including a win at course. Didn’t seem to have returned at his best so hard to have. Win still wouldn’t shock.
Festina Lente: Very poor first up. Didn’t show any heart at all. Hard to see a win today without massive progression.
Decircles: Mr unlucky. Just keeps running well and finding ways to lose. Looks to finally be in a winable race.
Hot Spin: Ran average at best first up.
Bellissimo: Never won first up but weighted nicely today. A chance.
Khalifa: Very progressive last prep and has won 2 from 2 first up. This looks much harder today but can win.
Cross of Gold: Very strong 3rd last start when slowly away and blocked for a run behind Generalife.
Right To Roam: Ran 1.7L behind Philippi last prep but at a further distance. Good win first up and could run well.
Red Rain: Hard to back today after last two runs.
Bashan: Ran on very well last start but needs to improve again today and poorly weighted in this class.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one:  3, 8, 9, 12, 15, 16, 17
Strategy: Decircles can win today while Cross of Gold looks good enough to go close again. Open race.

Flemington Race 6
Hippopus: Ran 8L 5th to It’s a Dundeel in GP1 last start and 2nd to Philippi before that. Should enjoy the extra distance today and rates very well. Williams on board and barrier 1, rates to win.
Serpent: Fairly average first up and hard to see the progression. Another NZ runner who looks to be overrated IMO.
King of Olympia: Sudden jump up to 2800m looks strange but could this be the aim all along by Gai? Best runs have been from out front and last two runs went back.. hard to stay on but Rodd is riding for a reason?
Kemtain: Maiden winner hopelessly outclassed today.
Captain Smith: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Master’s Degree: Maiden winner who isn’t up to this.
Mcnulty: Average last start and hard to see measuring up here.
Befitting: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Like A Carousel: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Chapkin: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Green Roller: Horse with a load of ability and ran a strong 3rd last start. Could go close.
Bessano: Good run two back at Bendigo but was shown up last start.
Wowee: Ran well enough two and three back but this is much harder.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3, 11
Strategy: Keen on the Hippo here while if you backed King the last two runs then you can’t get off today.

Flemington Race 7
Goldoni: Ran very well last start behind Banca Mo and is up 5.5kg today but significantly down in class. Will be hitting the line hard and looks the one to beat.
Westsouthwest: Up and down this prep. Down in class but up in weight and to a higher distance. Hard to see the progression. Needs to spell.
Anudjawun: Shown nothing last two preps.
Shiny Buttons: Very good run last start when blocked for run but hard to see the win today. Needed to show a bit more.
Lucky Angel: Average a best last start at the valley. Weighted very well today in this class but may be looking for further. Still has a great record at this distance and track. Don’t dismiss, race probably wasn’t ran to suit last start with the times run.
Rambert: Very good win three back but hard to see the win today on last two runs.
Second King: Outclassed last start. Up in weight today so hard to see the progression needed but win wouldn’t shock.
Zevada: On form he looks progressive, but looking closer, he hasn’t beaten much this prep. Sharalam failed last start up in class and Oneman Wolfpack didn’t have much form to go off of. Hard to see the progression here.
Laspiel: Ran very well last start at course from the back at a massive price. Weighted similarly today and up to 2000m could be the difference, but has never placed at distance. Don’t dismiss but not the best.
Model To Nite: Poor first two runs this prep so hard to see progression here.
Fulgur: Ran very well first up at Sandown but this is a significantly step up in class. Still, rates well.
Grado: Not in this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 5, 9, 11
Strategy: Keen on Goldoni here even with the weight difference while Lucky Angel can be forgiven for last start and looks a massive price. Fulgur looks the main threat.

Flemington Race 8
Readings: Horse with huge talent. Strange drop back in distance but wouldn’t count her out.
Min River: Didn’t handle the slow track last start. Ignore that run and back with confidence if you like her here.
Rock Hit: Showed nothing first up. Win second up last prep was in this class and distance but at Moonee Valley.
Hisstar: Running well enough this prep with wins in much easier company. The testing material.
Thorn Star: Poor last start. Didn’t seem to handle the distance. Barrier an issue and may just not be genuine enough to win here.
Crimson Lady: Ran poorly last start but previous runs were strong. Hard to see turning table on Thorn Star though.
Emmooki’s Star: Big win two back and then last start won in a very strong time. Speedmaps very well and will hit the line very well.
Motto’s Gem: Not going well enough to win this level of race.
Orlando’s Bride: Huge step back in class here when running a valid 3rd at Caulfield and only up 2kg. Major issue is can she overcome the 2.8L.
Imoto: Ran ok first up but geez she is short today. Looks under the correct odds should be around $6.
Lakers Bay: Hard to see a win here even at weights.
Magic Tigress: Good run two back in Adelaide but last start didn’t show enough. Hard to see the progression.
Moscow Pearl: Progressive horse who ran very well 2nd behind a Waller runner in a VERY strong time when positioned out the front. Down to 1kg today with Beriman’s claim, has a VERY good chance and looks value.
Notice Received: Not going well enough this prep to measure up here it looks like, but weighted ok.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 9, 12, 15
Strategy: Moscow Pearl is a massive price today. Happy to back E/W all day.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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