Welcome to The Profits form guide for Kyneton & Canterbury on 12 March 2014. Just the two races that stick out today and they are in Melbourne and Sydney. Well, how good was Moonee Valley on Monday? We cleaned up including that 9.2K quaddie (even if you only had 15%, that was delicious) to go with our $1.9 best bet and $9 next best winners. Looking at the fields today, it was tough to find runners I liked. The tip up in Sydney is a bit of speculation combined with the price we are being offered. I rate the horse highly, can forgive the first up run and think the horse is well suited today at the weights with speed on our the front. The race I have gone with in Melbourne is tough. There are 3-4 key horses, but one clear top pick for me at odds over what I believe are correct currently. I’m a big believer in value and backing horses at the right prices, those who have followed me for years now will know the majority of our best bets start well shorter than what they were when we put them up, there is a reason behind this, our strategy is based around value. Those who say ‘you can’t eat value’ As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Race 7 Canterbury
Lonace is certainly the one to beat in this race and the price represents that, but the first up effort on a surface he has proven to enjoy in the past suggests he isn’t going as well as last prep to me. The same can be said for my next horse I mention, but the price is significantly better.
Genteel is the one I like at odds. I’m going to forgive her first up run and just ignore she never went around. Had issues at the start and was too wide on the track. She has shown her best runs on a Good track and radars suggest we have it today. Maps to be further back than you would probably like at this track, but you have to trust Snowden and McEvoy know what they are doing. This mares best run ever was down the Flemington straight in a very fast 56.5 over 1000m and with Lonace in the race, I’m expecting a fast time will be put on our front giving her every opportunity if she is good enough.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Genteel E/W
Race 8 Kyneton
The race of the day.
Terpsichore is an interesting resumer today. Top weight as she is quality, but has been off a year, never won first up or at distance but is 1/1 at track. The run two back when she came home very well from the back off a slow tempo was very solid and she will be suited by the track today. Probably not far enough, but one to respect in the market.
Valid Contract looks the real deal today. Barrier 2 suits her perfectly to take a sit out the front with a sit. Up in class but equal weight today after claims, but if she runs up to last start, then she will go very close today for sure. Better suited back to 1200m a well and this looks winable. Key is sting out of the ground today.
Double Dee: Resuming today after some very classy runs last prep. Never won at this distance which is interesting but has won first up. Showed best last prep over 1400m but that isn’t MUCH further than this. Showed best off rain affected ground as well but did still run well on good tracks as well. Never runs a bad race and way back in class for this first up run. Maps nice enough from wide barrier.
Summer Gem is one of interest. Last win more than a year ago was beating a VERY handy filly named Octavia. Last prep just didn’t go close to breaking through getting only as close as 3 lengths. Best runs have been on GOOD tracks though. Win wouldn’t shock having been off 7 months.
Mrs Hadlee beat home a much easier bunch last prep off a strong tempo which suited taking a sit. Down 3kg today and you saw her quality with the time ran last start. From barrier 3, expecting her to sit 1 out 1 back for a perfect ride. Is proven on a longer straight track and hnaldes dead or slow tracks just fine.
Comments: Valid Contract, Double Dee and Summer Gem are certainly the three top chances here for mine. Valid Contract is the one I want to be with after last start. A repeat of last start would see her winning as long as the two first up runners didn’t train on significantly and were 100% for this first up (which I don’t think they are).
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Valid Contract to win. Double Dee.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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