Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley on Friday 14 March 2014. Just a quick one guys, Races 1-4 will have full form posted before the start of races on Friday. I’m catching a 6am flight up to Sydney in the morning, but will spend the later afternoon completing the form. So currently, just the one ‘best bet’ until I have the time to put into these races. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Chloe In Paris
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 2 Crucial
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 3 Back To The Bar
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Host of the Party: Up to appropriate distance today where he is 2 from 3 up in Darwin… but his first two runs this prep have been very very poor over the 1400m distances. Win would shock me tbh.
Grand Sai Wan: Way back in class today after a very solid 0.3L 3rd behind Tigerland in Open class last start. Only up 2.5kg today after claims as well! Goes well at this distance based on last prep and there doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race suggesting he will try and control it. Can win from the front or taking a sit.
Tunes: Shown nothing this prep and hard to suggest he turns it around here.
Soaked: Gets back in the run but impressed closing in a much harder race last start. Well weighted here today and should be fine with distance. Looks the chance at odds.
Commemorate: Weighted very well here today. Just have to ignore last start and rate on three previous runs. Weighted to win.
Valediction: Goes ok first up and placed 5 from 6 at distance. Looks under correct odds first up to me though.
I Maximus: Found out in this class recently but based on three and four back runs we can’t discount him fully.
Wilshire Flyer: Hasn’t been able to get a win this prep and is up in class again today. Down 8kg but not for me.
Comments: Grand Sai Wan is certainly the one to beat. Soaked is the one I like to swoop but is certainly short in the markets compared to what I expected.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Grand Sai Wan to win.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Crucial: Never runs a bad race and is well in at the weights here after claims. From barrier 4, maps to have every chance and is heavily back in grade if you ask me today with only 1-2 showing runs suggesting they could measure up. The one to beat.
Summerbliss: First up went around at $7s after blowing massively in the market. Back to her best distance today but off that first up run, I’d suggest she needs a run or two more to hit peak. Maiden only winner but classy.
Iggimacool: Run last start was certainly a peak in much harder class (was the company as good?) with a 3.8L win over 2100m. Best from the back is the issue today and barrier 1 means she will need luck to get the right run. A serious threat and one of the top chances.
Madam Archer: Keeps doing everything required of her with two close wins in a row at similar distances. Way up in class here but looks a very good place chance from the barrier today.
St Issey: Luckless last start at course over 1600m and previous run failed on a forgive run at Mornington. Previous run won well in lesser grade at Sale Has the potential and could run very well today at weights.
Lerichi: First up over 1300m showed enough but last start was average at best. Last prep went well over this distance but in far lesser grade. Can’t see her placing.
Blue Eyes: 3rd run ever and massively up in class after not getting within 3L either start. Carey yard so aimed for this distance.. but surely not against these.
Comments: The form around Crucial has been standing up all Summer and should continue to this season. The price looks very backable and I’m keen.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Crucial to win. If you are faint of heart, saver Iggimacool also.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Stratumsphere: Done alot wrong last two starts missing the start in both. Probably could or should have won both times as well and won two previous races. Weighted nicely today after claims and from barrier 6 maps to sit 1 out 1 back or similar. This is the type of horse you want to only back inplay once it jumps well. Who cares if you lose 10%, it’s more profitable long term to make sure it jumps well and is where you mapped it.
Tramuntana: Been competing in the country but hasn’t been able to break through this prep. Keeps running ok though. Harshly weighted today though against some genuine city class horses.
Reel Way: Done nothing wrong this prep at all. All runs have impressed me! Weighted so well today after claims as well and is suited by extra distance. Unlucky last start blocked fo runs and should have won. Rail bias the only thing that may hurt his chances.
Back To The Bar: Has some noteable form lines from last prep. Beat home Final Jest over 1170 from the back and ran ok in open class. First up changed tact and opted to lead. Won well in a solid time. Equal weight today after claims and will be fitter for that run, looks a genuine chance and could try lead this up.
Beach Front: Up in class but down in weight today. Mallyon off is disappointing and Carr on. Maps poorly from barrier but should get a spot about 2-3 back on the outside. If reproduces best runs this prep she will go close
Dashiell: All runs this prep have had merit but this bloke is hard to figure out. Fails out the bac tw back at Bendigo off a hot tempo out front but wins well at Geelong from the back off an only average tempo. Run before those at Caulfield was good also. Weighted nicely for this grade but hard to figure out if he will turn up today.
Dasilva: Maps to sit behind the leader or 2 back the rails today. Should have won last start and two back run was decent enough. Previous 3 were all wins as well. Weighted very well today and I suggest she is still peaking. One of the chances.
Misscatelli: Shown nothing after a solid first up 2nd at course and distance. 3 weeks off between runs but even at the very well weighted scale today and mapping well, she looks unders on the tote.
Glamour Planet: Hard to have or be anywhere near. Some speed maps have him leading but he hasn’t his last 3 runs so i dunno about that. Can’t have.
Comments: Bloody tough. About 6-7 with a chance. Back To The bar stands out here forme as a horse who could lead this up and has improvement to come. I think Reel Way will be hitting the line very hard and be hard to hold out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back To The Bar to win. Smaller bet on Reel Way.
Moonee Valley Race 4
I couldn’t have a go in this race and frankly, with an unseen Hayes first up runner and two Price trialers, it’s a tough race! If you wanted me to pick a runner that I think is on top here, it would be Orujo.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Lady Melksham: Expected to sit further back than normal today, we know she is certainly this class and has won 3 from 4 first up including last start in much harder company 1L 5th at Caulfield over 1200m. Only run over this distance was in this class and she got there on the line to beat a fairly average horse in Chinzia… but ran a solid enough time… which was her only win on a Good track. Weighted poorly for mine.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Weighted to win today, 52kg but gets a poor barrier draw today which hurts her chances. Never runs a bad race over this distance and will be very hard to beat. Form suggests she runs well.
Brilliant Bisc: This classy filly is way back in class today. First up run 2L off Shamal Wind over 1000m is solid enough form to win this. Off 55kg today, she is very very well in at the weights, but is yet to actually prove herself by winning since 2YO (Did beat a little known horse called Guelph). Barrier 5, expect Schofield to try and lead on what should be a very good rail and expect her to be hard to pass.
It’s Poets Day: Never won first up or at track but always runs well here. Last prep best runs seemed to be on slow tracks. I can’t have today tbh.
Siwa Lady: Three runs this prep in much easier grade for 0 wins and didn’t go close. I can’t have this runner even if it is a weir runner.
Lateva: Ran home very well start start from out the front but couldn’t hold them out. Will be further back in run today and I can’t see it here.
Easy To Look At: Poorly weighted today up in class here and when you consider run 3.5L behind Prettyhappy 5 back, hard to have.
Kochamma: Didn’t measure up to this class last prep and hard to see placing today. No thanks.
Bring Me Sunshine: How is this horse even allowed a run today? Had 50kg in a CL1 over in Tasmania and couldn’t finish within 9L. 0 Chance but may ‘screw up’ the pace out front.
Rattlin’ Red Rosie: Placed in a BM-45 three runs back… are you serious?
Comments: Excuse my language, but Bring Me Sunshine and Rattlin’ Red Rosie fuck up this race for me. This horses will be lucky to finish within 10 lengths of the leader and both of them are set to try and contest for the front. It’s an absolute disgrace that they are even allowed to go around today. I would be much more confident today on Brilliant Bisc if they were not in this field, that’s for sure.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Strategy: Brilliant Bisc to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Vilanova: Had the race at Caulfield set up for him. I don’t rate the form out of this race to be honest. Barrier 13, will be very far back and I’d be shocked to see swoopers get close enough. Only positive could be Newitt trying to be more positive today.
Honey Steel’s Gold: Ran home well enough last start at Sandown to get the win but barrier 16 today will see him work hard early and looks porly weighted up to this class.
Surge Ahead: You know my opinion of him. Been on him both runs this prep (last start was a tad ambitious but ran VERY well). Looks suited up in distance again today and rates to sit out the front or outside the leader with a lack of speed in the race. On ability, is one of the best in this. Big chance.
Late Charge: Did alot run last start and two back run was solid. Untested over 2040m so unsure how he will go staying the distance, but from what we saw last start, he looks well suited today from midfield.
Pheidon: Maps to lead this up and continues to improve this prep. Been off half a month between runs and Oliver takes the ride. Will be one to beat for sure.
All Rigged Up: On two runs this prep very hard to have.. but did run 3L 3rd to Savvy Nature last prep so I dunno. Can’t fully dismiss?
Bring Something: Ran well enough last start but got well beaten in the end. Looks better suited to lesser distances to be honest and to wetter surfaces.
Mista Spot: Ran home well enough last start but this is a significantly harder race. Other swoopers preferred.
Mysonharry: Surprised by running home 4th last start. Need a lot of luck to get a run today and needs to have improved 3-4 lengths today.
Cadillac Mountain: Surprised first up with a decent win after they set a solid tempo in the race. Will sit a bit further forward today IMO and even though up 3kg today, I think he is a genuine chance.
Slew Left: Maiden to Moe to this? No thanks.
Bardem: Showed enough first up over 1400m but then last start over 1600m found nothing… was it the good track? Was it the extra 200m? I can’t have here.
Calendar Lad: Showed enough last start to suggest he can run well today, but from wide barrier, have to work very hard to get the position he wants. A few others look better.
Scratchy Bottom: Failed to turn up last start when $4.3 2nd favourite behind Solicit. Track was no issue. Far back today.. not for me!
Comments: Tough race. I’d have to be backing 3 runners here to play.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 10, 14
Strategy: Back Surge Ahead 1 unit, Pheidon 0.75 units and Late Charge 0.5 units.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Le Bonsir: Ran very well last prep when up in WFA group company but just couldn’t measure up. First up today and goes well first up. Good barrier 2 today to get a forward position and back to listed company. Weight looks to be the only issue.
Happy Galaxy: Is this runner poorly weighted today? Took off too early in the Oakleigh Plate and was just a forgive run. Oliver takes the ride today which is of interest and best is over 1200m off fair times. Will be hitting the line hard late.
It Is Written: Ran home well last start at Mornington over the 1200m but was clearly beaten.. forgive due to the ground taken? Not sure. Always runs well here and will go close again from a good barrier.
Go The Knuckle: Flashed home last and showed he is wound up this prep. With so much speed in the race out the front you have to believe this race will be suited if he can get a run.
Zedi Knight: Huge run wide last start at course and distance. Up 1.5kg against Go The Knuckle today but when you consider the wide run and barrier 3 today, he should get an easier run today. Only issue is I think he is better suited over lesser distances.
Elite Elle: Ran well enough last start at Flemington. Not a straight runner, we were against her that day as you know. Weighted well enough but is she going well enough for this class of race? Not so sure. Will run well but from the wide barrier will have to work hard for a good spot.
Planet Voyage: Shown nothing this prep. Hard to even think about backing, only thing in his favour is weights.
Snitzem: I saw a lot of merit in his first up run. 2.5kg better off today against Go The Knuckle and 4kg against Zedi Knight. Barrier 4 should have him in a good spot… looks one of the runners to beat at weights. Distance the issue.
Solsay: Every time this prep he has sat out the front, he has proved very hard to run down and beat. Last start he just ran it too hard out the front and got claimed late. Up in class here today, he will go very well.. but probably gets passed by one or two in the final 50m.
Mandla: How do we rate him today? This is a massive step up and he isn’t very well weighted today at the prices. Will find it hard to get a positive enough position for mine and I don’t wanna be with him today.
Desert Wizard: Will be sitting out the back today off a hot tempo… is he the real deal? Never run at this distance and is first up so fitness is also a query. Looks too short for mine.
Comments: Very tough race. I have to stick with the front runners today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: Le Bonsir to win. Smaller bet Happy Galaxy.
Moonee Valley Race 8
May’s Dream: Super horse who is better suited over further. Won once from three starts at this distance which to me is a little telling… but to be fair a 0.3L 3rd to Solicit at course and distance is fine first up. Showed her best on dead tracks is an issue for mine also today. Price looks about right.
Miracle to Me: Ran home super last start at Flemington but just couldn’t reach the classy winner. Weighted well again today in this class and will be ridden for luck. I get the feeling they will try position slightly further forward on the rail and Symons will give her every chance.
Miss Steele: Ran well enough first up when blocked for a run to suggest she can go close today. As long as she doesn’t get caught out wide, she will be in a solid position to go close.
Vivi Veloce: Showed nothing to impress last two starts (last prep). On previous prep best can run well today but barrier and weights and form doesn’t help her here for me.
Chloe In Paris: The one to beat for mine. Absolutely luckless first up when smashed at the start, blundered at the 400m and became unbalanced to still finish within 1L of the win. Two runs previous prep were 0.5L 3rd to Kiss A Rose and 0.2L 2nd to Anatina. Lack of speed in this race, as long as she jumps well, she will be very hard to pass at these weights.
Pilly’s Wish: Ran well enough last start in what proved to only be a fair time run here. Should improve 2nd up but these look a touch too good.
Soosa Rama: Showed improvement again last start at course and distance to run home well off an average tempo out the front. Down 5.5kg today… very much in this.
Elle Excite: Runs this prep have been decent enough runs, but at the weights today a few will beat her home.
Just Mouse: Over from tasmania.. very rare these ones measure up. Up in class today and up in weight. Not for me.
No Excuses Bec: Blocked for runs both runs this prep. Weighted nicely but will be too far back for mine.
Real Calm: The pace in the race, she won’t be putting it on too fast out front… 52kg but this is a massive step up. Not for me.
Comments: Chloe In Paris looks suited by the race tempo and mapping today and is way over the correct odds. Miss Steele is a very good price here also from the barrier.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Chloe In Paris to win. Miss Steele smaller bet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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