Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley, Eagle Farm and Randwick on 7 June 2014. Last week ended May with a bang with only Arabian Gold letting us down, who was found to be very lame post-race and never looked to be in a correct action the final 400m. It was an amazing day all over and i’d love to repeat it today, but i am also a realist. It’s a tougher day overall but I am pretty dang keen on our best down in Melbourne. Keep an eye out as always for early bias and adjust accordingly. Expecting the MV rail to play out like the gold it normally is while Randwick and Eagle Farm should play quite fair. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Freshwater Storm
A favourite of mine, Freshwater Storm has been very hard to catch in recent times. We got off last start and backed the winner of the race, but Freshwater ran a very brave race and certainly caught the eye. Not only did he beat Zuma Roc home, running 2nd (behind St Jean), he did it by 3.3 lengths. Zuma Roc came out next start and won at Flemington, beating Backstedt. Freshwater Storm today is down 4kg from last run while from the weights of that same race, Zuma Roc is amazingly up 1.5kg today, meaning he has a 5.5kg swing today on the favourite in the race here. Add to that barrier 1, you know he will be in a spot to win this when it counts.
Interstate Best Bet
Eagle Farm Race 6 Almalad
Very impressed by this horse first up. Won with ease. Trainer has a very strong training association with horses out of Al Maher. At the $5+ odds today, the price is wrong, should be much closer to favourite on ratings and looks to have it all to suit today including an easy spot outside the leader.
Melbourne Next Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Akavoroun
Keep it simple. There are two to three runners in this race that could be considered the value runners and I wouldn’t be talking you out of backing, but Akavoroun is the class runner here. Undefeated in four races including a 2L victory in 3YO company, the Maher yard has placed him well all prep deciding to not tackle the big races to start with and to just pass through the grades. Heavy, Dead, Slow, he handles all those surfaces and his best has been shown on dead in the past. Anything above $2 (currently above that) is a great price today, as he does win this, from this barrier more than 50% of the time.
Interstate Next Bet
Eagle Farm Race 8 Srikandi
51kg today, natural leader, very solid sectionals, will be there hitting the line and very hard to run down. Everything going for the horse, hard to knock it and looks over the correct odds at the price. Betfair offering money back if runs 2nd or 3rd max bet $50. Sportsbet paying out first 4 places up to $200 return.
Melbourne Best E/W Bet
Moonee Valley Race 1 Fab Fevola
Oh dear, backing Fav Fevola again I hear you say? I promise you, I said after last start that I needed certain conditions to even consider it. Well we have RACE 1 on a Moonee Valley surface that hasn’t seen racing in some time… we have the rail in the TRUE which always screams leader bias. We have Fav Fevola who last start jumped a full length clear of any other horse and he is jumping from barrier 1. Moor simply didn’t control him and that caused him to spend too much early… Gauci is a much better front riding jockey in my opinion and rates MV very well. Great E/W chance.
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Randwick Race 6 Kneeling
The most genuine wet-tracker in the race, Kneeling won a very hot race at the Bool last start and proved to be in career best form. Weighted nicely here today, the barrier is the only concern to get the best run. The pace will be on with Zaratone in this and with Randwick you can win from anywhere as we know. The price is over the correct odds. Consider savering Avoid Lightning also in the race.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 10, 13
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 11, 14
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Future Solution: Haven’t seen this guy for a fair while and hasn’t won for more than a year. Not his distance based on previous runs but goes ok first up.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Finally got a win last start over in Adelaide and up to 59kg today. Barrier means he won’t get the lead IMO and may even get stuck 3-wide. Not ideal. Others preferred even though i like the horse.
Morant: Just ignore last two runs and rate on three back run at Caulfield ridden cold. Barrier 3 so they will go back and ride for luck today. Weighted to win.
Fab Fevola: Flew the gates last start at Caulfield but just couldn’t settle and ran close to last. Goes much better at track but hard to know what to make of last start to be honest. Weighted nicely back in class.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Hasn’t been able to record a win since a F&M win over 950m at course early in prep. Continues to run well and off 51kg today after claims, maps well and has to be considered.
Grand Emperor: Up in listed company last start at Caulfield he flew home when blocked for a run 2L 6th to Lonhspresso. Equal weight today back in class from barrier 7, will need luck to get a run.
Infinite Energy: Minimum weight today in winable company today… this guy goes well first up and is off 54kg. Rates well enough to win this but better over further.
Kuaima: Got the win last start in easier company at Sandown and down 5kg today. Maps to get the perfect run, don’t dismiss fully.
Don’t Wake Me: Hasn’t won since 2012 when won a R-72. Hasn’t really measured up recently in town and happy to ignore here.
Play Master: Continued to progress all prep and ran a nice 2nd last start at Caulfield. Back to 1000m looks a little tough up in this class for mine at the weights.
Comments: A few horses of interest here. Morant is well in at the weights in this class and if given the right run and gets luck, could run over them. Prettyhappyabout it is well in at the weights also and maps well from barrier 6. Grand Emperor looks unders today needing a lot of luck and improvement again. I keep coming back to Fab Fevola. I think we just have to realise Fab Fevola has natural gate speed, used it last start but the rider didn’t slow him up correctly and that cost him running it out. 55kg back in this class is quite fair and I think the sting out with a biased rail (true rail is always biased) will give him a HUGE chance.
Strategy: Fab Fevola to win. Smaller bet Morant.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Toothless: The Pies omen bet! Showed enough in first prep to suggest he is a decent horse. 3 months off, he will come back in better form… but need to improve to match up here.
Arctowski: First up well bred. Stable not overly confident in their video preview suggesting he needs the run and is an E/W chance at best.
Club Star: Ran well in a trial but I always dislike backing any horse who lost by 0.1L the previous start. Even in a trial, he showed he doesn’t have that will to slide past. Was still a nice trial and from barrier 4 he goes well.
Gloop: Ran well enough in maiden class first up over 900m. Will take a lot out of that but barrier makes it tough.
Gofa Gold: Medaglia D’oro colt in the kav yard. Barrier is ok but market only guide. I like the breeding but want to see in the yard. If kav is on course, take note!
Nicoscene: Two runs and both average at best in maiden company. Not for me.
Superdisco: Breathing issues last start at Flemington. Previous run at Geelong was solid but times too poor for this today for mine.
Turfane: Two runs first prep just a little too far off. First up run not too much improvement. Hard to have unless the rail was gold in race 1.
What A Hoot: Barrier 1 big plus. Not trialed. Unknown but a big watch for me on breeding from this barrier.
Sebring Lane: Won maiden ok last start in easier company as a $1.60 fav. Was fav in similar company first prep. Has wraps. Barrier 12 hurts.
All Day Baby: Went around fav first up but showed little. Have to suggest improvement shown today. Hawkes yard doesn’t get these ones too wrong.
Axford: Didn’t show enough last two starts to suggest the improvement today.
Comments: Couldn’t bet with any confidence here. Gofa Gold and What A Hoot the two to look for in the yard to see if they look to be forward.
Strategy: Gofa Gold to win. What A Hoot to win.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Kingdom of Dreams: Opened up well supported in the market and was a BIG drifter. Ran ‘ok’ but didn’t exactly impress. Up to 60kg today, happy to take him on.
Self Sense: Disappointing run last start at Flemington but he was ridden back and that isn’t him. He also didn’t appreciate the good ground but that changes today with the rain we have had. Barrier 2 means he will get a perfect sit off the fence and be a big chance.
Refulgent: Was a huge go last start at Sandown running home a close 3rd overracing and wide early on. Up to 59kg from 53kg today is an issue giving up 3kg to Kingdom of Dreams, showing how poorly weighted he is in at the weights.. but senior rider will help from barrier 3. Can win.
Turnitaround: As his name says, he did just that last start with a close 2nd at Flemington. Was that due to the good ground? Has good form on all surfaces but hasn’t won since his maiden. Weighted ok today, infact, 3.5kg better off against Self Sense today! Barrier 1, will be ridden for luck.
Barkly Boy: Finally got a maiden win last start at Bendigo and will be pushing forward today from barrier 7. Looks the natural leader on paper but times are only ‘ok’. If leader bias then can win.
Don Reggio: All three runs this prep have been nice, but this is a massive jump up in class and he just isn’t well weighted.
Believe Me: 2000m maiden winner back to 1600m today. 53kg is nice but has to improve significantly to beat these.
King of Manners: Won his maiden but last start in MUCH easier company didn’t measure up. No thanks.
Kiwi Dragon: Just snuck in for his maiden. Will be too far back today to matter and times not that great for mine.
Leventi: Last few runs have been ok but has to improve significantly to place today.
Pharrell: Heavy track 4.3L winner over in New Zealand. Happy to take him on here, but probably better than odds do suggest.
Gold Cufflinks: Hard to see measuring up to even place today.
Comments: At the weights, I come back to TurnItAround as the one to back here on the E/W.
Strategy: TurnItAround E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4
Rememba Howe: Showed nothing first or second up on a surface that should suit. Hard to have today.
Friday Hussy: Takes a while to come into form during her preps and she needs the run today.
Bet You She Rocks: Won 2 of her last 3 and only loss was a decent 2nd on slow. Up in class a bit today and similar weights. Has ability.
Dare I Ask: Overraced last start as $2.90 fav. Harder company today but won well two back. Hasn’t exactly impressed on wetter tracks. Needs to find a length
Warwarick: Showed nothing last prep but previous prep a nice win on slow in similar company… run before that also close 2nd over 1600m. Will be hitting the line hard but not the best early on in prep.
Vihanna Victory: Showed nothing first up over 1300m. Goes ok at 1600m and has had a good month and a bit to train on. May just still be wanting further but has to be considered.
Moreau: Didn’t handle the good track last start and is just a forgive run. Down to 51kg (better weighted than last run) off 1600m and looks suited today with the track condition. Last win was in 3YOF company over this distance on a dead track last year around this time. Two back run suggests she is ready to go close today. Would have preferred a better barrier.
Suspiceieuse: Looked ok first up but similar distance today and probably needs a few more runs to get to full fitness. Should run ok.
Mossmoney: Showed nothing both two runs this prep but generally best later into runs. Goes ok on wetter tracks as well.
Noble Star: Weighted nicely today but never placed first or second up. Takes a while to get into it really.
Serene Tanie: Ran very well two back on slow at this distance at huge odds. Back down in class again today on a wetish track, looks well weighted.
Miss Matty: Never won first up previously only ever won twice before. Might need further and a few runs in.
Loma Diamonds: Showed enough first two runs this prep in much easier company to suggest she could place today.
Comments: Fairly average race if we are to be honest about it. Lots of unknowns. Moreau is the one at the right price to back here. Should push forward from outside with a light weight and with the ground today should be well suited. Has the class factor.
Strategy: Moreau E/W
Moonee Valley Race 5
Octavia: Very poor last start at Flemington, just ignore down the straight form. Was pretty decent two back at Morphetville on slow. Weighted ok today but barrier hurts and has to improve.
Vibrant Rouge: Hasn’t shown us her best this prep and will certainly improve today on previous runs. Won her last two at track over this distance and from barrier 2 will position midfield off a hot tempo. Big chance.
Vain Queen: Wide barrier today in 10 but still inside of Octavia which helps. Ignore first up run and 2nd up didn’t exactly get the best ride you will ever see and still finished ok all things considered. Goes well with a wetter track and from 52.5kg looks well in today.
Halle Rocks: Flying right now on wet or dry tracks, unlucky not to get there last start. The wetter the better for her today so if the rain comes, keep an eye out.
Angelic Lass: Needs it wet to find her best and gets that finally today. Never won first up but from barrier 11 will test them out the front for the speed. Just not sure she is well weighted against this lot first up.
Jolie Blonde: Ran better last start than previous run or previous prep. Putting it together it seems and weighted ok.
Nadeem Lass: Disappointed last start up in class. Did finish ok but has to find much more to beat all these today even at the weights. Barrier helps.
Natural Disaster: Has the form lines to run well today. Two back ran well behind Siwa Lady which is nice form and then just beaten a nose by Nearest To Pin. Up in class but can win from barrier.
Nautical: Goes well first up. Shown best over further distances but has won at this distance in the past. Need luck.
Spellrocker: Never won first up previously and needs 1400-1600m to find her best. Goes well on wetter tracks though and could try push for this lead. Never far away.
To Be Honest: Much better weighted against Nautical today compared to last prep when beating her. 1200m isn’t her best distance though and to mine needs further. Can get a nice spot though from the barrier and could pinch this.
You Can Dance: Very poor on the wet last start.. two previous runs really weren’t much better. Win four back was good but won’t lead today. Not for me.
Nodhima: Two runs this prep have been ‘solid’ but is working her way to further distances. Not today but should run well.
Oh Teary Me:Can’t see her placing here.
Lonhspresso: Won’t be running as ran at Swan Hill on Friday.
Comments: So many runners wanting to take the lead today, it could be set up for one midfield or worse. I keep coming back to Halle Rocks.
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 10, 13
Strategy: Halle Rocks E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6
Voila Ici: Won’t be backing here off last start run even with the claim.
Wish Come True: Can’t back on either runs this prep. Shocked if improves that much.
Backstedt: Every chance last start but ran out of gas late. To be fair, the time run was very fast out front and that flattened him a bit. Not much pace in the race today and looks a key chance on mapping.
Zuma Roc: Giving Backstedt 1kg today and best form is on Good tracks with only 1 win from 14 tries and 1 extra place on dead or slow. Hard to have.
Cornell: Ran well last start at Caulfield but I thought he had every chance and just didn’t finish it off well enough. Should get a more consistent pace over the 2000m but this looks harder.
Freshwater Storm: Weighted to win. Meets Zuma Roc 5.5kg better off today at the weights and beat him by 3.3 lengths. Barrier 1 maps to get a perfect run and everything looks suitable.
Bec Said No Credit: Equal weights today with Freshwater Storm but has to make up 1.8L from last start. Poor barrier hurts.
Bells of Troy: Very poor up in grade last start on a Good track.. Will appreciate the wetter surface today but at weights has to improve lengths.
Lightenuff: Hard to see him getting close at the weights on last two runs compared to others here. Could place.
Love for Ransom: A little disappointing last start. Thought she should have shown a lot more than that. Has ability.
Mister Moneypenny: Not in this class today.
Comments: Freshwater Storm is the clear standout at the weights. Very talented horse and has no excuses today, should be winning and is a sensational price.
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 6, 7, 12
Strategy: Freshwater Storm E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Churchill Dancer: Missed the start at Caulfield and ended up too far back last start but finished off the race well. Up 4.5kg to top weight here with no claim looks a tad harsh but last few runs he has carried the weight. Barrier 3, will run well, needs luck but is a big chance.
Hard Stride: Won with ease last start at Caulfield but it looks unlikely he will have an easy time finding the lead today from barrier 16 with a LOT of speed inside of him. Has to find the lead to have a chance for mine.
Weinholt: Ran a 1:08.4 2nd to Sweet Idea first up last prep after blundering at the start. This is his distance and his best runs have been on dead including a 2.5L 2nd to Long John at Flemington. If returns at best will be hard to hold out.
Allez Eagle: Showed his best on a wet track this prep to win a fairly easy race. Needs to show a lot more to measure up here today if you are asking me.
Baker Boy: Stacke em up and won it in a fairly routine run at Mornington last start. MUCH harder race today. Don’t fully dismiss.
Longchamp Belle: Very brave win at Flemington last start over the 1200m. Barrier 1 and will be trying for the lead. If we come up with a slow track then she is a massive chance in this. Does have to improve.
Kievann: Very disappointing last start at Flemington and probably better to rate on previous run… had a spell since and down 4kg today.. but never placed first up from 3 tries. Goes ok at distance but never placed from 5 goes at this class of race.
Belesron: Strong Moe winner by 5.5L… but this is a harder level of race. Does look a good type and more rain should help.. Have to rate.
Tankster: Very strong 3rd two back and 1.3L 5th 3 back. Is an improving type but didn’t seem to handle the slow track last start at Flemington off a very low weight. Up 4.5kg today has to improve significantly.
So Does He: Decent win first up in a R-64 and the times were ok. Has to improve significantly to measure up with these though.
Red Samurai: Won a fairly average R-64 at Sale last start on the slow. Will like the track today but not in this class.
Merrick’s Beauty: Tasmanian runner up in class and up in weight today. Need it to be slow 7 at least to be considered.
Feline Like Flyin’: Decent maiden win first up and backed that up with a nice win in R-64 also. At weights should run ok today.
Baligari: Over from Adelaide. Won a very poor maiden and then ran a 2.3L 2nd in easy company after that. Much harder here. Hard to have for mine.
Oh So Assertive: Didn’t measure up last start and hard to suggest today.
Issawi: Maiden only winner, not the best times, average. No thanks.
Sprewell: Not going to measure up here.
Comments: Bloody hard to be confident in this race with so many runners and so much speed. All about who gets the best ride and run.
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8
Strategy: Weinholt on top. Longchamp Belle second pick.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Shadow Ninja: Surprised a little with a very brave effort at Flemington last start behind Limes when he finished off nicely. Doesn’t handle it wet, but if the course is dead, then he is right in this. Barrier hurts a little but not a load of speed inside of him and could get over easy enough.
African Heat: Showed nothing this prep. hard to have.
LuckyI’mBareFoot: The wetter the better for him. Just missed at the bool last start on the heavy. Back to the slow to dead today, he will probably struggle a little bit to compete today at the weights… but not the worst horse. Barrier helps.
Fast And Free: Very disappointing this horse first up. He was very one-paced in the straight and lacked that dash he showed us when he last won. I think he needs another run before he is fit enough for this.
Flyingconi:Finished home well at Sale last start behind Thunderbird One. Up to 1500m today helps, up to 59kg hurts but track conidtion will help and goes well at MV.
The New Boy: Can’t win on slow. Can run ok on dead but hasn’t shown us much this prep to suggest we could back him here and will work hard for the lead.
Akavoroun: Undefeated from 4 starts, never been close to losing on slow, heavy or dead. Even won in 3YO grade as well. The one to beat by a mile. Barrier helps. Super chance today.
New York: Went close two back first up in much easier company off 52kg. Last start only fair to the line and slightly up in class here i’d say. Weighted ok and better on dead and at this distance. Have to consider.
Royal Rapture: Tassy runner coming over and way up in class. Time last start was quite decent.
Darlimurla Star: Showed best last prep on heavy and not sure this is his go today.
Popeye Braggins: NZ runner over here off three solid runs this prep including some nice times run. I think this guy actually looks the real deal on form and has to be considered even from the poor barrier.
Sterosonic: Very disappointing the last three runs after a nice win over in Adelaide. Can’t have at the weights.
Just Junior: $200-1 for a reason, needs further.
Stradale: Very solid win last start at Sandown from start to finish but got away with murder sectional wise. Has ability and weighted nicely. Have to consider.
Excuseable: Likes it wet. Very big win last start at Mornington from the back.. but the leaders did set it up out front with a fast time set. Previous run on slow was solid also. Need to improve again but weighted well.
Beacons: 600m sectional last start at Mornington was very solid on the slow. Big step up in class today but has ability.
Red Corner: Two seconds in a row without threatening to actually win after an ok win three back. Has to improve to win this and poor barrier hurts.
Defiant Angel: Ran ok first up but has to find lengths today.
Comments: I have this down to 5 in the Quaddie but I’m keen on three runners here. Akavoroun is undefeated for a reason, the horse is that good. There is no reason for him to get a bad spot in running today and will be bloody hard to beat. Shadow Ninja looks the value of the race. Last start he was brave to the line and in this class at the weights is well in. Popeye Braggins is the big unknown. You don’t win a BM-85 by 4.3 lengths on a dead track, even in New Zealand, in a 13 horse race without being good.
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 7, 11, 14
Strategy: Akavoroun is the class runner. Saver on Popeye Braggins as it won’t cost us much to do so.
Eagle Farm Race 4
This race look a little more open than the market suggests. A few progressive types while there are also a few with talent returning today.
I was made a believer last start by Cape Kidnappers. It was a super win.
Comments: Happy to back Cape Kidnappers today but I need at least $2.80 in this class.
Strategy: If price is $2.80+ for Cape Kidnappers, small bet.
Eagle Farm Race 5
I’m going out on a limb in this race. Lucky Lago is a horse I feel has star power on the dryer ground. The horse hasn’t won since late 2013 in a FMB-80 class race, but all last prep she showed us signs of her class with 2L 3rd to Red Tracer, a very unlucky 1.8L 5th to Diamond Drille when she probably should have won that race and then up in distance she ran nicely on slow and heavy. She handles any ground type but I feel she is best suited style wise to a dead to good track. From barrier 3, she can sit midfield and with the pace on, she will be suited by a hot tempo with Browne hopefully getting her clear running when it matters.
Comments: Very tough race. I thought the price on offer for Lucky Lago was good and I expect it to actually drift before the race with so many ‘well known’ horses in the race.
Strategy: Lucky Lago 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Eagle Farm Race 6
A tough race with quite a few improving 2YOs in the race.
Time for War won gamely last start but the track was playing nicely for those leading on that day. Brazen Beau will certainly be hard to beat from barrier 4 today.
Looks Like The Cat could improve as well.
Almalad is the one I like at the odds. First up this prep win at Randwick was sensational. The final sectionals were lovely and he really stands out. The Waterhouse stable have a very good association with Al Maher sired horses and it is one of their best strike rates if you go look it up. This horse looks to be very very good.
Comments: Keen on Almalad here and we get almost E/W odds!
Strategy: 2.5 units Almalad to place. 1 unit Almalad to win.
Eagle Farm Race 7
I understand why Vilanova is favourite off that last start run. It was impressive, but this horse is also very hard to catch. It’s previous win was a big step up and then it went wayyyy backwards the next 3-4 runs. Will have to be ridden cold again today and not so sure there is a HUGE amount of speed in this one.
Sonntag impressed last start at Caulfield winning a fairly nice 3YO race with solid sectionals. From barrier 7 it will position nicely and I think he has a good chance!
The horse i’m most interested in here today jumps from barrier 12, Happy As Hell. Expected to settle midfield, I’d want there to be a bit of give in the ground today to be backing him. If we get some of that rain that is around to hit and drop a few MM onto the ground, then I think the $30+ odds are way overs based on last start behind St Jean who is a key form-line horse right now.
Rock Diva will need to be ridden more forward today to win based on last start but was huge late.
Comments: Tough race and i’m not exactly jumping out of my skin to get involved.
Strategy: If dead track or a small amount of rain I could be convinced to put an E/W bet on Happy As Hell.
Eagle Farm Race 8
Shocked to see two 3YOs come up favourite here off 51kg each. Hucklebuck will probably get stuck further back than most expect while Srikandi should have no troubles in jumping and leading. I think Srikandi is the read deal with 51kg and can run a very fast 1400m which will be very hard to run down.
So who are the challengers?
Knoydart at the weights is the obvious. Down 6.5kg today and gaining 5.5-3.5kg on runners from last start, he is weighted to win. The only issue is the horrible barrier. He will be running on late.
Sacred Star was good first up in Aus but this is Much harder and only gets 1kg better off today and I think is exposed here.
River Lad returned well last start but looks poorly weighted.
Smokin’ Joey can’t be written off after a HUGE win on slow last start at Morphetville in Group 1 company. Nice weight today and will be running on, but barrier 3 hurts his chances alot.
Temple of Boom has been solid all prep, finds himself 2kg better off than his brother today and has to be considered.. but barrier sucks.
Red Tracer is Red Tracer. Rate her runs on last start and three back runs when 1.3L 3rd to Appearance in WFA-G1 company and last start 0.5L 3rd in FM-GP1 company. 56kg today and Waller should have got her right.
Famous Seamus looks only fairly weighted today in harder company.
Rebel Dane will be going back from a shocking barrier draw again and I think is a better horse sitting closer to the speed. I have to avoid today.
Spirit of Boom is the most poorly weighted horse in the race, but is also the most consistent. Giving weight to all contenders today, at least gets the right run today from a positive barrier.
Comments: On my ratings, I have three key chances in Srikandi, Red Tracer and Knoydart. I think Knoydart has been a disappointing horse all things considered apart from that huge Mornington win. He has offered alot but never followed through, especially that two back $2f 2nd to Hot Snitzel. Red Tracer is Mrs Consistent. She always gives you a good run no matter thr track condition and 1400m is her distance range. The barrier hurts is all. She looks the overs. Srikandi is the one i keep coming back to on times. I hate backing 3YOs in these races but I like the money back offers going around and 51Kg on a horse with great sectionals just makes sense.
Strategy: Srikandi to win. Smaller bet Red Tracer. Make sure you at least put some of your money through the $50 money back 2nd or 3rd promo.
Eagle Farm Race 9
Keep this one simple. If we get rain coming throughout the day and get a track downgrade, backing Mr O’Ceirin on the E/W. if not, sitting this one out. Hard to split the form lines but I’d suggest Moriarty’s form is slightly better than Precedences… but Predecence back in a smaller race today has every chance to not get blocked for runs. Of course Zephryon is going well also.
Randwick Race 6
Two key runners here for me in the best wet trackers. Avoid Lightning and Kneeling. Kneeling won a very hot race last start at the bool in a genuine heavy track while the previous race was unlucky 2nd to a class runner in Halle Rocks on slow. Barrier isn’t exactly ideal but not an issue with enough speed in the race to set a genuine tempo to swoop if she gets too far back.
The other runner who is key here is Avoid Lightning who was sensational last start at course and distance. Before that just too far back when 2nd to Cosmic Endeavour who is a sensational form line. Previous to that, won on only run on heavy beating Plucky Belle and a gap to 3rd. I wouldn’t exactly say she handled the Heavy super well, but she did like it.
Strategy: Back Kneeling and Avoid Lightning to win. Alternative strategy is to bet Kneeling E/W and to saver Avoid Lightning.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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