Welcome to Saturday racing for Moonee Valley. Glad to have the valley back on the radar after a few months of missing our cash cow. Let’s hope we can start this Saturday with a bang! As you know, I am still in Canada so this will be a short edition again, but I am finished with work and fly over to England arriving Monday so expect to see a daily English form guide plus the normal Wednesday and Saturday guides! As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Moonee Valley Race 7 Alrouz
Moonee Valley Race 6 Digitalism
Moonee Valley Race 8 Mosse Diva
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
A bit of a horror race to start the day for punters but you must admit the favourite looks very short considering the field. I’m Ready for This comes in under the 5 length winner rule quite well while Our Miss Bossy speed maps perfectly to sit outside Frolicked and can run on and win. Don’t be surprised if she sits one out one back though.
Strategy: Very small lay on the favourite with small equal stakes on Our Miss Bossy and I’m Ready For This.
Moonee Valley Race 2
SEALORD!!!! You have to love this horse. 4 from 4 at the track and with a 3kg claim certainly comes in well here today off 58kg. That being said, it is a tough race as always. The issue for SeaLord is that he has’t ever run on slow ground so you can’t be sure he has his sea legs.. but 4 from 8 on dead seems to suggest he will go ok.
Mr Make Believe fronts up as the main danger today to Sea Lord. He should get to the lead but you have to wonder how much pressure Zedi Knight will put him under. He is hard to go past but at the price, with the ground slow not heavy, looks to be the saver.
Strategy: Sea Lord to make it 5/5 at the track. Saver bet on Mr Make Believe.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Nella Fantasia is the stand out here for me. Weighted very well today when considering the runs last start behind Octavia and Hazard. She has proven that over the distances she can stay the 1200m and 1400m from the front and Moonee Valley is suited to this style of runner. The main chances in the race are positioning 3-4 horses back and if she pinchs some cheap sectionals, this could be her race.
Easy to Look At is a very interesting runner. Should sit a little further forward today and position well during running and when you consider she is down 6.5kg today giving a 4kg swing against other rivals.. if she produces her best or even close to it, she can go very close at big odds.
Truffle looks to be the main danger but needs luck.
Strategy: Small bet on Nella Fantasia and Easy to Look At.
Moonee Valley Race 4
An interesting and open race. Mumbeilly has been scratched which screws everyone over who was hoping to get on it head to head vs Aliberani because of the weight differences!
Rock Princess has to be skipped today on the Slow track and this track.
Roccin Jo was super last start in Adelaide and is a massive chance today if gets a split.. keep your eyes out. Price looks overs.
Aliberani and Moreau look to be the two big chances. Both runners are well weighted. Aliberani will certainly handle the ground today, there is no issue with that compared to Moreau who is certainly an unknown on the ground. I am confident enough that Moreau will take the lead and from the dead track form handle the ground. I think the price is value.
Strategy: Back Moreau and a small bet on Roccin Jo.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Two clear standouts in this race for mine with Hunger and Ava’s Delight.
Hunger speedmaps to take up the running and has proven to be a good we track runner previously. Will have every chance today.
Ava’s Delight is a horse I have a lot of time for.. and backing her you have to. She speed maps fairly poorly today but she has the ability to hit the line hard. At the price, I can’t have her on top at all. But she is certainly a saver.
Strategy: Back Hunger, Saver Ava’s Delight
Moonee Valley Race 6
The senior citizen’s race today features a few 6 year olds and 8 years olds.. but the $2.60 favourite is the 3 year old in the race Digitalism.
If Hunger wins the previous race, it certainly franks the form for Digitalism and the money will flow in. This could be a good back to lay opportunity… once Hunger wins.. get on fast and then get out once the price has dropped further.
The top two runners are looking for further while Spacecraft has disappointed us most of pretty much any horse going around this week.
Grey Monarch can’t be touched after that first up run and you would struggle to even make a reason up to back Felidea who was very poor and has no wet track form.
Del Palio is interesting with wet track form but days. That last start win did certainly present some interesting form lines.
Purettan is never far away on slow or heavy with 7 places from 7 starts.
Nice and Neat doesn’t look good enough on paper today.
Digitalism is the stand out with a brave win last start at the track and speed mapping very well today once again to win.
Tenno is hard to tough from first up run.
To Cry For is outclassed.
Strategy: IF Hunger wins the previous race, then back Digitalism in hard. I would want to have a little bit on Del Palio also.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Certainly an interesting race with quite a few chances. The Speed map has three of them pushing forward and the rest wanting to sit back. I would want to be sitting up the front with those 4 personally but the current favourite Westsouthwest speed maps dead last!
Alrouz just keeps on improving this prep and showed a lot of heart last start. Amazingly after a 2L win up in grade today he is DOWN 8.5kg after claims! WOW. He will be sitting out the front and almost impossible to pass.
De Fine Lago looks the main danger considering the close 2nd to Lake Sententia last start who would be starting favourite here.
Auld Burns won’t pressure the leader today, will take a sit and could be a sneaky chance.
Westsouthwest was good late last start and down to 51kg after claims will be at the back of the field and hitting the line hard. Has won on slow previously but will he be able to make up that much distance?
Strategy: Back Alrouz here all day. Small bet De Fine Lago also.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Welcome back to racing my love Mosse Diva! The Speedmaps have her going back today but I suspect Hayes is smart enough to know she is best ran out front!
Queen Delight was huge last start at Moonee Valley and could have found her best again and looks a chance.
Classy Chloe has no wet track form to speak of but meets Royal Bender better off at the weights today.
Royal Bender has a great record on slow tracks with 3 wins from 5 starts (next best conidtion is Dead with 2 wins from 15 starts!). Could really be suited here.
Majority of the runners have a chance here today.
Strategy: Backing Mosse Diva E/W with a small best on Royal Bender also.
Rosehill Race 2
Call me a sucker, but I’m backing Knoydart here again. I reckon they all go hard out front and Reith doesn’t get sucked into it and gets a dream run to hit the line hard late.
Rosehill Race 5
Zaratone is a great trading play here. Will start overs and trade in. Get out, I doubt the horse can last the 1400m out.
Kontiki Park is the one I am very keen on here. Is a superstar but has been off a long while. Gai wouldn’t bring her back unfit. She is ready to resume and win. Goes super first up.
Rosehill Race 7
MCClintock is going around a big odds again. He will hit the front and he will trade in as always. A good trading chance. I personally think he is some hope with the ground condition today if the jock can settle him (good luck haha).
Disciple certainly looks the one to beat in the race.
Ipswich Race 8
Very keen on Conservatorium today. Went absolutely super last two runs and is speed mapped to have a brilliant run today!
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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