Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley. The rail is in the true position again this week and it was a tough day last time out with winners coming from everywhere. The front runner one off the rail position started playing well late in the piece and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens again late tonight. The first few races a little light on info for runners, but I didn’t want to waste around reviewing horse I felt had no chance in them. Two stand out tips tonight go in as the best. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 4 Bono Vox
Moonee Valley Next Best
Race 8 Baluch
Moonee Valley Best Value
Race 7 Ali Vital
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 11, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
A tough race to open the card. Some fairly average horses in this so you have to look back through their runs to see the potential.
Kiss me Ketut‘s win last start was solid enough to go close today. Up 4kg but back in class. Most importantly, the runs previous to that are very solid and some nice form lines.
Go Again is back in class again today but really should have won two back with the perfect ride out front. The horse just wasn’t good enough. I can see 1 or 2 passing her.
Jessy Belle won her maiden well last start. Looks to have some progression but is she better than the previous two we mentioned?
The other three don’t look good enough on previous form.
Comments: No enough equity around yet, but fixed odds on offer are stacked towards the bookies.Kiss me Ketut looks to have the most going for it today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: I’ll probably be skipping this one, but Kiss me Ketut to place will be about the right price needed due to being a ‘three horse race’ for the top 2.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Maiden race at the Valley.
Comments: Do you really need to have a bet here? REALLY? REALLLLLLLLLY? Come on now.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: IF you really have to.. Tremont has the most upside and the track should run to suit.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Some progressive types in this race. The next big thing could be here as well.
Tankster is one who went in our blackbook. Last start win was very solid and the horse infront had every favour but he still got past. Down in class today and only up 3kg. Great barrier and maps to win.
Boer has run $1.20 and $1.30 the last two runs and lost the first maiden while winning the 2nd one solidly. Looks a good sort and maps well from barrier. If there is a leader bias, keep an eye on this one.
Great De Here won well in maiden and then ran 3rd to Polanski in 2YO class. Not bad form? Been off since and back in distance which could suit. If Kav is in the yard, this is the one to be around.
Magnaro is weighted very well today. Should push forward from barrier 1 and can run well.
Comments: Hard to pass up the form of that win Tankster had here last prep and maps even better today. Some value to be had in the race also.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Tankster 2 units to win. Great de Here 0.75 units to win and this amount increases if Kav is in the yard.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Bono Vox‘s last two runs were very solid at Flemington and Caulfield. Found best at similar distance in the past. Back in class today and Oliver takes the ride. Will position a little further forward today from barrier 5 and is the one to beat.
King of Dudes ran VERY well last start at Ballarat getting the win at big odds. Up in distance today which suits and you can’t write him off at all.
Classic Hussler’s last two runs have been ‘solid’ but this is a step up in class. Barrier 1 so maps to lead.
Jileks Spur last two runs have resulted in wins over similar distance. Barrier 15 means will have to work extra hard early to get a good spot but is weighted nice enough to go well.
Ayushman ran on very well from the back last start after missing the start. Down 1.5kg today and weighted better than most who finished in similar positions. Should position further forward. A chance.
Ran on well last start to 2L behind Use The Lot. Up 0.5kg today but should run well and maps nicely from 2.
Yuka Joy had every chance with the pace out front but couldn’t stay. Hard to see winning.
Ezee Ezee ran a solid time last start at Mornington but this is a step up in class again. 53kg does give her a chance.
McNulty has disappointed the last two runs. Weighted well but needs to improve again today to go close.
Ran on well last start in much easier company and is off 52kg today after claims. Could be hitting the line hard.
Comments: A few chances here but with the price on offer for Bono Vox, it’s way over what it should be.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Bono Vox E/W. Saver on King of Dudes.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Observer’s run last start wasn’t in a super fast pace. Up 1kg today and down in distance. Outside barrier means needs to work harder to not get caught out wide.
Intreeg ran dead last at course and over 1000m last start then spelled. Three runs back ran 2nd to It Is Written at course. Never won first up and weight looks tough.
Jarrah Twist has won 2 from 3 first up. Last win was at MV over 1200m. Will be going forward and if at best can test there.
Legcut is a super horse who struggles to win always finding 1 too good. Never placed first up, but if trained for this then can go well from barrier 3. Have to respect in this class of race.
Tabasco Force ran ok 2nd up but hard to see improving to win this. Has won a 950m race last prep.
TheBarwonprince is an old favourite of mine. He loves to place here but just doesn’t win. First up run was solid and will be hitting the line hard. F4 always.
Miss Mazzeo didn’t impress much last start. Can’t have.
Song of Joy not the same horse this prep.
Sweet Agi looks out of her depth here even after a strong enough win first up. Oliver takes the ride does make you think the horse is going well enough to win though is the only thing. I can’t have at this price.
Bel Setoro looks outclassed.
Comments: Low confidence here
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Legcut is the best horse in the race but finds ways to lose.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Lamingtons has won 2 from 3 first up previously. Scratched from another race recently but comes into this well off. 58kg today and barrier 2 is the most important part. If the rail is working out well or even playing fair, she is a big chance.
Peninsula Dane continues to find ways to run 2nd having ran 2nd all 3 runs this prep. Back in class significantly today and up to 57kg after claims, she comes into this well. Barrier 11 hurts for the speed map but should still be suited as long as gets ridden 2 wide not 3 wide!
Sahara Night has progressed through the grades winning two in a row in solid enough times. Barrier 5 and will find it hard to cross Lamingtons. Looks a new horse. Don’t dismiss.
Bawcatme up 4kg today and meets Peninsula Dane 1kg better off. Ran on well enough first up in Melbourne and up in distance should suit. Barrier not much of an issue but will be running wide.
Pretty Possum can run some solid times but this looks hard for this type of horse.
Royal Scandal will struggle to get the lead or a good spot from the barrier today with speed in the race. Hard to see winning at weight.
Manor Lady’s last prep was horrible apart from the first up win in a very nice time. 55kg today after claims.. can go well if at best.
Hard to rate Metaphor’s that first up run to be enough to win this tbh.
Shot of Siena looks way outclassed on last prep runs.
Easy to Look At ran well from the back but hard to see the extra progression today. Is weighted ok though. |
Frankly Fast may struggle to pass several of these.
Shussing doesn’t look good enough on recent form but could be a sneaky chance if improves again.
Comments: Hard race. Quite a few chances.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8
Strategy: Win bet on Peninsula Dane. Smaller bet Lamingtons. If there is a bias then Sahara Night and Lamingtons may become the plays.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Better Be Sure has progressed very well this prep. The 5th behind Smoken Cash looks good on the record 3 back as well. Need a good run on mapping but is a top chance.
Purple Tiger comes over from WA. Best runs have been over slightly further but this is significantly back in class. Never won or placed first or 2nd up. Barrier hurts.
Ali Vital won a 3YO race over 2200 then ran in the GP1 won by Hawkspur… Back to 1500m today and goes well first up. Can run well.
Catagious looks a little out of class here.
Chamandi’s last two runs have been solid without winning.. Down 2kg today from last start but up in class. Barrier hurts.
Remagen Bridge on runs this prep doesn’t look weighted very well today.
Tilla Bell Rings two runs this prep have seen him get unlucky. Barrier 9 should see him given every chance to come around them. Needs to improve though.
Sistine Demon ran 2nd to Notlistenintome three runs back. Good start to finish win last start and two back ran ok. Good barrier and will go close.
Inanoff has only won once from 17 starts in this type of class. Has won first up previously but should be wanting further.
Kimiko has a very solid barrier today and is better weighted than Better Be Sure. That suggests the price is overs.
Relentless is hard to back here on previous runs this prep. Non-winner.
Triple Tease wont’t win this on previous runs.
Twin Spires hasn’t done much wrong this prep but this is a much harder race. Barrier 5 and will position forward.
Comments: We will know how the track is playing today. Alot of runners wanting to go forward could see a solid tempo on.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 4, 9, 12
Strategy: Ali Vital on top from Sistine Demon
Moonee Valley Race 8
Crimson Lady was horrible last start at Flemington while the previous. If runs on like first up then can go ok.. and this is big down in class. Never placed from 4 goes at distance.
Miss Matty is looking for wetter ground it seems but three back run was ‘solid enough’ to go ok today.
Baluch was unlucky not to get the win last start. Previous runs were solid and looks a genuine chance.
Chateau Latour is one to watch from two back run. Has the potential to run these all down.
Heyday was very disappointing last start. Ridden too fast out front I’d suggest and new jockey goes on. Can go well.
Mancarfio poor gate and up in class here. Can’t see.
Reckless Assassin has potential but this is a big distance step up today. Oliver gets the ride which is of interest.
Princess Mossman won well two back but last start disappointed. I can’t have.
Finley Harper is hard to back here off last start run.
Prie Dieu doesn’t look suited by the distance increase.
Runes won a maiden very well but it was just that. Can’t have a maiden here.
Shibby has won 3 in a row progressing through the grades. Another step up but can go well here.
Spanish Vixen is hard to back here. Couldn’t win in the country weighted well enough so I couldn’t have here. Barrier hurts also.
Marlais Not good enough on recent runs.
Pole Dancing isn’t the worst going around but this is a huge jump in class.
Comments: Baluch is the best horse here but needs to be given a good ride.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 11, 12
Strategy: Baluch to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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