Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley. The rail has moved from the true position to 3m which was the best ground the past two meetings. Front runners on the rail should have every chance tonight.. while the 4-5M wide ground looks solid enough also based on previous form at the track. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 1 Sprewell
Moonee Valley Next Best
Race 8 Unique Storm
Moonee Valley Best Value
Race 7 Beauty Cash
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 8, 10, 12, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 16 (And add the 1 if track somehow gets upgrade to Good)
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 10, 12
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Blonic Hill: Barrier 10 hurts today but ran well enough first up this prep to suggest can go well again today. One of the top hopes.
Calendar Lad: Handles any condition on form lines and back down in grade here. Lost to a handy type in his only maiden race. Money will tell how this one will go.
Dandog: Two runs this prep have been solid. Barrier 2, can go forward or ride for luck. Suspect he finds another too good.
Feral Cowboy: Not good enough on form. Need luck from barrier 1.
Primal Delight: Only two runs have been on heavy. Guess we have to just ignore that? Watch for any money that comes.
So Does he: Not going well enough. Doubt he places.
Something To Do: Strong first up run but this is a harder race.
Sprewell: The one to beat. 2nd to Jade’s Boy, 3rd to Mays Dream and 2nd to Star Destination are all very solid form lines. Oliver takes the ride, barrier 5 suits.
Berrichon: Didn’t show us enough the last two preps to suggest wins this today.
Comments: Take the early odds for Sprewell with drift insurance (bet365 or centrebet). If comes in, feel confident. If big drift, lay off your stake.
Confidence: 85%
Strategy: Sprewell to win
Moonee Valley Race 2
Alexa Cee: Hasn’t been seen since a 4L 4th to Use The Lot over 1600m. Previous runs have been very solid also with 2nd x2 in maidens and 4th and 5th in 3F-LR. Barrier and weight to suit today. If progressed since spell is the one to beat.
Ankole: Three back run was solid but last two runs were poor.
Cartel Queen: Hard to see the progression from country class.
Firefront: Ran well last start on the slow track. Looks to be wanting a rain affected track.
Gala Princess: First up Kent runner 4YO who has been well backed. Keep an eye on.
Tunisia Traveller: Two back run was solid. Last start had every chance but didn’t go well enough IMO. Could go closer.
Wings of Heaven: Just not going well enough on recent runs if you ask me. Was blocked fo run last start… just keeps finding excuses.
Diame: Last two runs only fair. Not for me.
Little Falls: Excuses last two runs. Needs to find 3 lengths.
Lucky Valentine: Continues to run well this prep and continues to improve.. Barrier 2 gives every chance and should take a sit.
Poet’s Dream: Two back run was solid in maiden class… Barrier 12 hurts but weighted well enough.
Victorious Tale: Will try and push forward from barrier 9. Can lead from start to finish if the rail is playing very well.
Comments: Tough to find the winner here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Alexa Cee on top from Gala Princess
Moonee Valley Race 3
Hornet’s Nest: Not sure what went wrong last start at the Rat on heavy. Should have been suited. This looks a stab in the dark today but the horse is good enough in this level of race if at best to go well.
Altonio: Just ignore last start at Caulfield on a leader biased track and look to run two back BEATING Use The Lot who we have a HIGH opinion of. Big chance and should position slightly further forward today
Val Mondo: Not going well at all this prep. Hard to have.
Rock Musician: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Not going well enough but is weighted ok.
Ayushman: Disappointing the last few runs. I can’t have on those.
Big Ben Chimes: Nice weight today but was still 6.5L off with 51kg. Can’t have.
Geeceegazza: Ignore last start… but hard to have.
Just Junior: Progressive type who continues to run well. Weighted nicely… barrier 2… can get a dream run.
Fetes Alfresco: Goes well over this distance. Last two runs poor but up in distance could be the deal?
Sugar Bush: Not sure he is good enough to be winning this. Could place.
Comments: Have this as a race between the two favourites.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing both Altonio and Just Junior to win an equal amount in return.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Bia Diamond: Disappointed the last two runs but they were on slow and heavy tracks. Just write those runs off and look to three runs back behind Queenstown. This is a huge step back in class today and never runs a bad race here. Weighted to win. Only issue is the barrier.
Zoomania: Down to 58kg after claims and comes into this with three very solid runs this prep. Last start behind a good runner in Girl Gone Rockin who is very classy while the previous cup run was also solid. Barrier 1 and goes forward. Hard to pass.
Titbit: Three runs this prep have been poor. Up in distance but only placed once from 5 tries at this distance. I can’t see it.
Blazing Dragon: Last five runs have all been solid. She continues to run well. Down in class again today and will be ridden for luck from barrier 2 off a nice weight. Has every chance especially if they kick up a little closer to the pace today.
Princess Rock: Runs well at this track and distance. Last start was a good win but what did she beat? Not much IMO. Oliver keeps the ride which helps.
Proper Madam: Poor this prep. I can’t have even though up to a more suited distance.
Vihanna Victory: First up run was solid but last two runs were not good enough to win this. Did conditions suit on slow or heavy? Not too sure. Could be value to place but I couldn’t back to win.
High Design: Won a poorly rated country race last start only just. Two previous runs got beaten by a horse who wouldn’t win this. Can’t have.
Cool Attraction: Good win two back at Donald beating much easier company. Last start went close at Bendigo. Big step up here but weighted ok.
Marlais: Hasn’t shown anything good enough in last three runs.
Comments: Three ‘key’ chances here IMO. Bia Diamond, Zoomania and Blazing Dragon. Banking on the rail being perfect.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Zoomania on top from Blazing Dragon.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Fab Fevola: Super disappointing both runs this prep when if at best would have gone close or won both. Barrier hurts and top weight. No thanks.
The Minister: Just too far back last start and didn’t get a solid run. Can run better today but weight hurts. Barrier does help.
Johannapine: Ran just ‘ok’ first up. Equal weight back down in class. Runs better 2nd up but I can’t have on that run.
PrettyHappyAboutIt: Up 5kg today but 3kg claim does get her back in well. Barrier 13 means she could get caught wide which is the MASSIVE issue.
General Jackson: Outside barrier hurts. Running well in CL races but this is a big step up. Weighted poorly if you ask me.
Beltonic: Just ignore last start run on a rain affected track. Look to previous three runs. Back down to 955m is strange if you ask me but can go well from barrier.
Hard Romp: Ran well last start at course. Barrier 4 gives him the dream run. Looks suited today.
Sorisam: Last prep finished off witha bang. Can run front or back. Barrier does make it awkward.
Observer: Weighted to win today. Barrier to win today. Only issue is if he is slowly away like two back.
Clevadude: Had every chance last start and was ran down late. Very disappointing really that day! Barrier 16 makes it very hard for him to get the right run today.
Thiamandi: Rates to go close and win this today. Barrier 2 gives every chance and 55kg looks almost a gift. Won’t have to work as hard for the lead or to sit outside the leader today.
Prelusive Strike: Not the worst form coming into this. Heavily down in class off 3YO runs and 53kg.. but others do look better suited. Will be coming hard late.
Innocent Hero: Is she the real deal? Start to finish leader the last two runs. Weighted nicely but barrier 8 makes it hard.
Kaiser Sun: Good win last start of last prep. Down 5kg. Barrier 3. They are probably smart enough to take a sit today?
Monsieur Pierre: Doesn’t look good enough for this.
Comments: There are about 7 horses who wouldn’t mind leading this tonight. Will be a very fast 55 second challenge. If the rail is playing out to be the place to be then I don’t see our top 2 getting crossed or being beaten home.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 8, 10, 12, 15
Strategy: Observer to win from Thiamandi
Moonee Valley Race 6
Fresh Light: Lat two runs have been solid but this is another step up. Maps well enough here today and both runs previously at track have been solid.
Scelto: Hasn’t returned the horse this prep. Can’t have even at weights.
Suspended Gem: Very strong run behind Tombola two back and then ran very well last start at Cranny. Another step up but looks well suited.
Mister Cool: Hasn’t been able to record a win in country class. This doesn’t look much easier if you ask me. Weighted poorly.
Luckycent: Good win two back from start to finish. Last start ridden incorrectly. Boss goe son. Don’t dismiss fully.
Magniloquent: Best run has come on Heavy TBH last prep when beat Electric Fusion! Since then hasn’t fired many shots. Last start run was ‘ok’ and extra step up could help.
He’sNotTheMessiah: Just ignore last start on the Heavy. Found one too good and back to the less rain affected tracks today.. he is going very well. Barrier only issue. Needs to get over.
Duplicity Jones: Ran well behind Tombola last start first up. Equal weight today. Can go well.
Oceanographer: Looks outclassed today.
Settlers Way: Continues to run well without threatening to take a win.
Northcliffe: Ran well enough last start but can he beat all of these home? I doubt it.
Gold to Go: Barrier 2 and maps to lead this up. Weighted well. Don’t dismiss.
Comments: Tough race with quite a few chances. All depends on how the race is run.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 8, 12
Strategy: He’sNotTheMessiah on top from Duplicity Jones
Moonee Valley Race 7
Mister Moneypenny: This horse looks simple to figure out. Needs a good track. Weighted nicely and will go well enough.
Projects: Just wipe last start off the record. Before that, he won, won and ran a close 3rd. Tough weight today but he deserves it and from barrier 5, maps to lead or even better, take a sit. One of the horses to beat.
Moving Money: Won an easy race 2nd up this prep and dumped in the deep end. hard to see measuring up at weights.
Work The Line: Good win last prep at Cranny. Always runs a good run and weighted nicely in this grade. Goes well first up. Been off a long time only issue.
Written Off: Better suited to wetter tracks. Could go well if we get a wetter track than I expect.
Cross of Gold: Oh how close did he go last start for us! Was very brave. Maps poorly today though so not my top pick but can go close.
Beauty Cash: He has been under the radar all prep. He continues to run well and the wetter it is the better if you ask me. Weighted very well. Barrier suits. If gets the right split, will win!
Daybreak: Won 2 from 3 first up. Weighted very well after claim today.. Barrier gives him every chance today if at best. Only issue for mine is distance and ground.
Fourdays Of Mylife: Ran well last start but probably should have won if he was good enough. Further back today I’d suggest.
Free of Doubt: Showed big improvement first up when won well in easier company. Don’t dismiss.
Tiger’s Cub: Not sure he measures up to this class today and barrier hurts.
Kim Success: Last two runs were good but not good enough to win here at weights for mine.
Littlebitaluck: Needs more than a little bit! Needs a lot of luck to beat these.
Northern Jet: Not good enough.
Prince Stratum: Maiden only winner who won well first up. Never missed a place at distance. This looks much harder.
Comments: In my process of recording ‘chances for Quaddie’ during the write-up, I ended up with EIGHT who could win. Wide open race. Beauty Cash is the one who sticks out for me.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10, 16 (And add the 1 if track somehow gets upgrade to Good)
Strategy: Beauty Cash to win from Projects.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Invincible Lady: Good heavy win three back and then ran well four back. Need luck from barrier.
Sinhala: May need it a touch wetter than she will get today. Weighted poorly off 61kg. Can’t touch this.
Dashing Shadow: Tough barrier today. Weighted poorly but always runs well here. Finds another too good today surely.
Purrealy Solved: Going very well this prep with a close 6th last start and previous to that a big win over a quality runner on Heavy. Maps and weighted well.
Miss Zoom: First up runs well and last prep was solid. If trained on can win.
Emerenta: Every chance last start and not good enough. Weight hurts here for mine. Never runs a bad race though.
Novaspirit: Last few runs have been solid without winning. Gets far back and will happen again. Barrier hurts for mine as will need to be very wide.
Tayla Lee: Not sure she measures up in this class.
Unique Storm: Maps to get a dream run today from barrier 4. Weighted to win also off 56kg down in class and back to a more suited distance. The wetter the better I’d say as well!
Sherbet Bomb: Looks to be wanting further than the 1200m. Maps to lead from good barrier.
Hampton Girl: Doesn’t look good enough for this grade just yet off last prep… but almost a year of training on so you never know. Probably have to include in Quaddie.
Our Hussey: Not going well enough.
Duet: Never placed first up and only ever won a maiden. First up this prep and didn’t show us a lot last prep to be honest. Not for mine TBH.
Comments: While there are quite a few who can win this, Unique Storm is my clear top pick here. Everything seems right today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 10, 12
Strategy: Unique Storm on top from Purrealy Solved
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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