Welcome to The Profits form guide for Mornington on Wednesday 28 May 2014. Another weekend of racing down, but I’m not sure we exactly learnt alot. Limes got the job done at double figure odds to turn another profitable week for the Best Bets, but it would be really good to get at least two of them to cash this weekend. Today we look towards Mornington where there is some average racing on offer. A few present themselves at value and i’m happy to have a go, especially at our Best Bet.
Best Bet
Mornington Race 9 GreenEdge
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mornington Race 3
Lamingtons is a city class horse who at 4 should be finding her best. With only 3 wins to her name, it is important to note 2 of those have come first up and she has also placed.. only missing a place once first up (not for the last two preps). She is way back in class in this grade today and with 53kg from barrier 4, expect her to sit on or just off the pace and be strong to the line.
Not the strongest field here and I have real questions on the favourite who looks very short at the price first up. I’d be leaning to the Price runner Vintage Drop over it.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lamingtons to place
Mornington Race 4
Green Roller is the logical and on speed mapping, only speed in the race. This mare has shown she has potential along the way, with her last win coming from start to finish out the front. Down in class today and with the claim of Childs today, she is well in at the weights. I have her rated a slight favourite and the current odds present value.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Green Roller E/W
Mornington Race 6
I’m not sure how I can have a bet in this race.
Brotherly Secret showed huge potential last prep and the price looks overs, but I really want to see what he has to offer this prep before I get involved.
Kraftwerk is given to Oliver to ride today and the 2nd to Anatina last prep is a key form line. Ran very well first up and then even ran ok last start at Rosehill.. but should be better suited back around the Melbourne way. Up to 59kg is the issue today though against others lower at the weights.
The market details the others with chances. This is a watch race for me.
Mornington Race 9
Let’s keep this one simple. Greenedge is a huge price today considering the last two runs behind some very quality horses and form lines that just keep holding up. Key to last run when 2nd to Tax Evader who has come out in much harder grade at Flemington and won by 2L is that he was blocked for a run on the turn and could have finished much closer. From barrier should get back to settle close to 1 out 1 back and get a perfect run.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Greenedge to win
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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