Welcome to The Profits form for Randwick and Caulfield! The Doncaster is set to be a cracker and who would have thought you would ever see $4 for Pierro outside of a Cox Plate type race every again! There are some serious fields in both states and there look to be some nice anchor horses to get you into the profit today. Take advantage of the amazing offers around the traps! The last two weeks our Best have gone 2/6 both week providing a handy profit due to the large odds normally on offer for our picks (this week is a little slimmer but more confidence). As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.
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Best Bet Sydney
Race 4 Heart Testa
Best Bet Melbourne
Race 5 Elite Elle
Next Best Sydney
Race 6 Scream Machine
Next Best Melbourne
Race 4 African Pulse
Best Value Sydney
Race 8 Danleigh
Best Value Melbourne
Race 8 King of Olympia
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Dalton: Went up to Queensland last prep and ran very strong times and won well. Big chance today.
Lord of the Sky: Market only guide and not liked right now.
Mezeray Miss: Won well last two starts and up in class again. Could find the progression off 55kg.
Ready Again: Market only guide and not liked right now.
Super Hunter: Market only guide and not liked right now.
Kiss A Rose: Good win first up storming home. Looks to be a good thing.
Tiarazou: Huge win first up over 900m and then was a strong 2nd after that. Should have trained on and go close today.
Moparee:Won well enough but looks a step up.
Samarmeteors: Price first up runner. Money coming. Don’t discount.
Strategy: Not a huge fan here but if you twisted my arm, I’d go with Kiss A Rose.
Caulfield Race 2
Twilighting: Shown nothing all prep. Hard to see it turning around today.
Rose Pattern: Weighted well enough today down to 55.5kg. Needs to improve 1L or so though.
Beautiful Buns: Last two runs have been poor compared to Launceston runs.
Rock Princess: Ran on well last start but this is as hard if not harder.
Lucky Penny: Very strong first prep and looks to be set here today. Beat Rose Pattern by 3.5L last time they met.
Sweet Ella: Not run well enough last two runs.
Campagne Ruby: Positioned back which wasn’t what you would expect on previous runs lat start. Down to 52kg today which could be the difference if is ridden as expected.
Elfina: Ran well enough last start. Need to find a few more lengths today but has ability to win.
Koe: Good win in lesser grade last start. Hard to see the progression.
Spot On Maggie: Ran well last start and is weighted better today. Big chance.
No Manners: Was suited by the slow ground in lesser class last start. Hard to see the win here though.
Strategy: If Lucky Penny returns in best form, simply wins this. Campagne Ruby gets another chance today going forward.
Caulfield Race 3
Precedence: Ran well enough first up last start to suggest you cannot discount today. Probably looking for further and weight is a little harsh, but has the talent.
C’est La Guerre: Will enjoy the increase in distance today but never won second up or at distance.
King Diamond: Ran well enough last start and down in weight today. Has a chance off previous runs but probably needs further.
Finiguerra: Very strong form lines with the first up win over Muhaajir and comes in well today. Speed maps VERY WELL.
Cosmic Causeway: Very strong first up run and down 1kg today. Rates to win going forward.
Zabisco: Seemed to not handle the 2000m last start but the step back to 1800m should help. Can go close today.
Whisper Downs: Weighted well enough to win today. Huge run last start behind Jet Away and weighted better than Zabisco today.
Cuban Sunday: Hard to see the progression.
Down Under Boy: Didn’t show much last start but could go close on previous prep.
Harry Trimbole: Ran well enough first up but this is a step up again.
Fabriano: Huge step down in distance. Hard to see this working but down to 52kg makes it possible.
Strategy: Loved the run of Whisper Downs last start. Was huge and will run very well today while Finiguerra’s first run cannot be ignored.
Caulfield Race 4
Amaethon: Big run last start when positioned further back than normal. Should be even stronger second up. Only issue is barrier (once again).
Zedi Knight: Will inject a good amount of pace into the race. Should run well but not good enough for this today unless there is a massive speed lane.
African Pulse: Huge last start win and as long as gets in from outside barrier is the one to beat today off 54.5kg after claims.. Is a group horse.
Dusty Star: Never won first up or on a good track. Expecting dead so that helps.. but been off a long time and didn’t get a win in the last 10 runs (keeps going close). Would have preferred a claim.
It Is Written: Big win last start at the valley. Never placed at this track though and may sit further back today than is ideal. Still a shot.
Dream Face: Not good enough.
Vatican: Didn’t get the best run last start and will probably need to find a length or two more to have a chance today.
Didntcostalot: Ignore last start and look to two back. This does look a little harder but don’t discount.
Forty two Below: Doesn’t seem progressive enough.
My Survivor: Hard to see a win here.
Strategy: African Pulse is a star. Weighted to win today. Happy to back. A claim on Amaethon would have warrented backing.
Caulfield Race 5
Elite Elle: Really an amazing win last start by Elite Elle by 3L in a canter. Beat home Red Fez who in it’s previous start ran JUST behind Norzita. From barrier 2 and off 57.5kg after claims, the one to beat.
Fuddle Dee Duddle: Positions out the back normally and will need a lot of luck. You may think that 2L behind Luckygray and Mr Moet is good form and I would say you are right, but 1200m is just too short here.
Hazard: Won 3 in a row last prep including a win at Caulfield. This is much harder and will need to have improved significantly when spelling to compete here.
Seaside: Big win last start at the valley. Comes in well here and if produces best could be the main danger to Elite Elle. Should position well enough but I get the feeling may be further back than expected.
Ava’s Delight: Huge progression last prep and BEAT Super Cool over 1600m. This distance isn’t her best, but could go very close.
Mareeza: Not good enough on first up run but does have talent.
Thunder Rain: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest has a chance here.
Formidable: Found a few too good last few runs. Off 52kg is well weighted but just doesn’t seem to get there.
Vicario: Good win first up but this is significantly harder. Weighted well.
Melting Moment: Not good enough on form to date.
Sweetner: Not good enough on previous form lines.
Lady Nhung: Only won a maiden. Can’t see the progression.
New Moves: Country class runner. Won’t measure up.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 6, 7
Strategy: Elite Elle looks to be the best of the day at Caulfield.
Caulfield Race 6
Centennial Park: Back to the Centennial Park of old, big win two back at Flemington and ran very well last start behind Havana Rey and Riva De Lago (both very strong form lines). Up to 60kg today is harsh, but the pace should be on out the front.
Zabeelionaire: Should be looking for further than this. Hard to back today.
Niblick: Two very strong wins this prep and just keeps improving. Won 4 from 9 at distance and positions well enough to win.
Under The Eiffel: Ran very well last start behind Budriguez. Has a big chance today.
Parthian: Not good enough on previous runs.
Speediness: Ignore last start and look to two back when was a long way back and put down huge sectionals. May not get a very good run from speed map.
Club Command: Got held up last start but just wasn’t good enough. A big chance today but this looks to be as hard.
Offenders: Ran well enough first up and is fresher than others out of that race. Big chance again.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8
Strategy: Centennial Park will be suited by the pace and be hitting the line hard while Speediness will be sitting further forward today.
Caulfield Race 7
Underestimation: Ran well enough first up to suggest could run well second up. and weighted 2kg better today. Never placed from 4 starts here is issue.
Clinton Affair: Couldn’t win over in Adelaide which suggest will find this hard. Is weighted well enough though but 1400m looks too far.
Electric Fusion: Ran well enough last start 3kg today but his looks harder.
Royal Island: Big run last start and unlucky not to win. Up 2kg today but not an issue.
Union Gap: Went forward last start which isn’t normal for the horse and ran well enough. Down 3kg today but needs to find more than that run.
Forget: Not shown enough this prep.
Hirad: Big run last start after a very strong maiden win before that. Up in class again today but no reason he can’t do it again. Issue is the barrier.
Stars In The Sky: Not good enough on first two runs.
Arousing Suspicion: Won well first up at Mornington but much harder today.
Murcielaga: Ran well enough last start but needs to find another length today.
Medvedev: Form last start was good enough. Will be going back today from barrier 14 and weighted well enough. Could be value in this race.
Just Do Something: Big maiden win but this is much much harder.
Magniloquent: Last prep form strong enough but this is significantly harder. Doesn’t look Moody’s best.
Here To There: Unlucky last start but probably won’t measure up here.
Aeratus: Hard to see the progression.
Maharaaj: Didn’t show enough last start to suggest win here.
Kachada: Not up to this.
Quaddie leg three: 6, 7, 9, 13
Strategy: Too many chances here to back from confidence. Hirad looks very progressive and is over the odds.
Caulfield Race 8
Castlzeberg: Ran well enough over in New Zealand. Back down to 1800m today but has ability and showed enough in NZ to suggest could win this off 58kg after claims.
Gold Medals: Good win last start at Moonee Valley. This looks harder task but should go close.
Subiaso: Ignore last run and look to two previous. Has the ability when you consider weight today. Should position well enough from barrier.
Backstedt: Big progression this prep. Need to find a lot more today.
Floatmyboat: HUGE run when very wide. Can go close today.
Hunger: Good run last start but needs to show a lot more today without a rail bias.
Tronador: Impressive 2nd last start. Speed maps very well and weighted nicely. Every chance today on previous run.
King of Olympia: Ignore last start in much harder company and look to previous runs. Weighted very well down in class and going forward. Value.
Averau: Big win last start in much easier company. Don’t dismiss.
Cooldini: Hard to see the progression for this race.
Prince of Penzance: Nice win at Ballarat but this is much harder.
White Sambuca: Doesn’t seem good enough on last start.. may not be suited by distance.
Prisoner Of War: Didn’t show enough last back and will be too far back.
Host Of The Party: Disappointed last start. Hard to have.
Magnapal: Not good enough on recent form.
Remorse: Form lines solid from last start but this is significantly harder.
Sweet As Bro: Times were solid and a 7L win is hard to dismiss. Outside barrier hurts but price looks value.
Tigerish: Hard to see the progression on previous runs.
Fifth Century: Not good enough.
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 18
Strategy: King of Olympia will be going forward and is a BIG chance today while Sweet As Bro and Tronador are both major chances also.
Royal Randwick Race 1
Studio: Big win last start over 1900m and step up to 2400m doesn’t look an issue. 61kg does look a little harsh and will need to take a sit to win today.. but speedmaps out front.
Vittoria: Speed maps to get a sit behind Studio today on the rail (not the place to be going into the straight?). Just got home last start at the Valley leading all the way off 51kg. Up to 57kg today after claims but back in class and with a sit looks very hard to beat.
Coup Acclaim: Ran well enough last start behind Studio and meets 1.5kg better off today. Speed maps well enough to be a chance.
Tunes: Continues to run well this prep but up in grade significantly today and only down 1kg looks a little harsh. May position outside the leader which won’t be the best place today.
Above All: Meets tunes better off at weights today and keeps running well, but hard to have on recent form. Should find one too good here at least.
Saintly Sun: Failed in group company last start but previous to that ran well. Will eat up wet ground and is a chance.
Red Shift: Hard to have on last few starts. Hasn’t shown us enough.
French Gift: Weighted nicely today but couldn’t get close to a few in this race last start.
Piazza San Pietro: Major step up in class here and doesn’t look progressive enough.
Emeritus: Good win last start but almost equal weights with Saintly Sun today off 1L loss.
Strategy: Vittoria continues to run well and with the sit today will be hitting the line hard. Only issue is barrier and if she gets the best ground. Price looks overs.
Royal Randwick Race 2
Everage: Big run last start when loomed as winner but just got passed by a better horse. Down in grade today and up 3.5kg looks fair. May struggle to get in from barrier which is a concern but if gets a win 3 back on the outside will be very hard to beat.
Major Conquest: Hard to knock his form behind Scandiva who finished infront of the Golden Slipper runner and just behind Guelph last start. Speed maps to get the gun run today and will be hard to beat.
Queen Pin: Didn’t measure up last prep. Could have improved but no thanks here.
Little Miss Smiley: Good maiden win from start to finish but will struggle to repeat today.
More Than Mum: Not in this.
Quelle Beaute: No money for this horse yet but trialed well enough. May not be of quality. Money will guide.
Scrutiny: Not up to this on first run last prep but could have improved signifanctly.
She’s A Danica: Unlucky last start and should position well enough today. Can’t discount.
Sunshine Royale: Green first up and been off since. Could run well.
Twodiamondroses: Doesn’t look good enough.
Strategy: Hard to split the two at the top but due to weight factors Major Conquest looks the one to beat. Savering the second favourite and you can still get a good $2.50 odds for the win or money back for Everage which looks a profitable long-term play.
Royal Randwick Race 3
Fuerza: Speed maps well today and finished strongly last start. Just needs to find another gear and can win.
Ideal Guide: Big run last start and maps very well again. Issue is up 1kg today for that run.
Gracious Prospect: Outside barrier not ideal today but equal weight and has the ability to win.
Hydro: Positions to lead today which isn’t ideal for the day, but could sneak a few easy sectionals.
Diva Dee: Too far back last start and ran on well enough. Position slightly closer today and hitting the line hard.
Rightoncue: Missed start and almost got there on the line last start. Will position slightly further forward today and will have no issues with a split on the inside. Watch Cassidy hug the rail. Big chance.
Aztec Rose: Ignore last start and look to previous run. Maps well enough today only query is 1600m.
Artistic Lass: Progressive type but others look better on maps than this filly.
Riocetto: Ran far better than anyone expected last start and looks progressive. Step up here today but has ability.
Star Wars: Hard to see the progression here.
Strategy: Rightoncue looks the value here but it is very open and my money will be staying in my pocket most likely.
Royal Randwick Race 4
Platinum Kingdom: Another New Zealand runner first up. They have a shocking record first up over here. Won 2 from 3 at this trip and is expected to run well.
Heart Testa: Unlucky not to win last start. Has huge form lines and should be the one to beat today. Maps FAR better today. Third up and will be peaking today.
Eximius: Won a much easier mid-week race last start. Big step up here and only down 1kg. Needs to find a few lengths.
Limes: Keeps running well but hard to see the extra progression today.
Casual Choice: Impresseed last start taking a backfield position and hitting the line hard off a fast tempo out the front. Not expecting as hard a tempo today.
Boban: Huge run off 50.5kg last start when pulling and almost got there. Down 6.5kg today and up in class. Will position dead last and need a lot of luck.
Maximilian: 2kg better off today but needs to find a few lengths.
Rock Magic: Just keeps running and winning. Form lines not as good as they look though. Looks unders today.
Air Striker: Didn’t handle the 2000m so back down to 1400m. Form lines are sound and is weighted nicely and positions well. Overs!
Recess: Not up to this today off previous runs.
Thunder Row: Only won a maiden.
Strategy: Heart Testa is in very well today and deserves hard backing while Air Striker is over the odds and gets a bit of my money on it.
Royal Randwick Race 5
Stratana: Very poor last prep. Looks to have trained on but can’t back here first up off the weight even if down in class.
Bound To Blush: Adebisi would be winning this race today so you have to say she is a good chance off 56.5kg after claims. Major issue is barrier.
Hurrara: Speed maps very well today but form line don’t seem good enough off the 59.5kg.
Snitsky: Very strong win 2nd up thjis prep when showed much more. Down in class today and down 0.5kg. Barrier a massive issue.
Eucumbene: Eats up the wet ground so if we have a slow track, you would be backing him for days. Has the ability to blow them away and maps VERY well.
Australian Star: Brave 2nd last start to Senta De Noche and meets 2kg better today. Should be beating him.
Earnest Ernest: Ran on well enough last start. Will be getting back and most likely ridden for luck on the rails. Could get there at the line.
Fedde: Suited by insanely fast tempo out front last start. THis is much harder from the back. A lot of horses to pass. Need luck.
Skateboard: Has won first up previously. Hates the wet. Does ok at distance.
Upshot: Also ran well last start behind Fedde. Two runs before that were just not wins. Positons well enough on maps but could get trapped wide.
Vilakazi Street: May find it hard to slot in but loves the distance and is well weighted. Big chance.
Senta De Noche: Progressive type that just keeps running well. Won’t be suited by leading today as we suspect the ground to be suited to those taking a sit or back further. Need to be something special to win this from barrier 14.
Territory: Need luck to get in but off weights of 54kg today meets Senta 2.5kg better off today and has every home.
Potions: Only ever won a maiden but always runs well. Never won first up. Best to watch today.
War Charm: Keeps getting blocked for runs. Good horse but not in this for mine.
Deceiver: Ran well enough last start but others in race look more progressive on form lines.
Eminent Domain: Suited by tempo last start. Hard to see the same run here.
Prince of Thunder: Not in this.
Strategy: This race depends on track condition. I will update this strategy around 11am latest on Saturday but if we have a slow track, I am very keen to be on Eucumbene at massive overs.
Royal Randwick Race 6
Kelinni: Huge run last start and seems to be reaching peak fitness. Was asked to go a little too soon and will enjoy the drop back to 2000m on wet ground. Perfectly suited if we do somehow get a dead track. Speedmaps well enough and hopefully takes a sit.
Crafty Irna: Get a gun run behind the lead horse today off what shouldn’t be a overly fast speed. On two back form can win this but last start was very poor. Harshly weighted.
Fibrillation: Disappointing when backed the last two starts. Not sure how it was backed in.
Hoylonny: Brave rails run by Cassidy last start but wasn’t good enough to beat LOH. Will be ridden for luck again and be there at the finish. Up 2kg today.
Said Com: Every chance last start. Can’t back again today even if he loves a slow track.
Single: Take a sit today which is probably better for the horse but doesn’t seem to be going well enough to back today.
Court Connection: Great win two back in Canberra but this is a step up class wise.
Lunayir: Failed due to track last start (slow). Interestingly placed two previous runs on slow so not sure I believe that honestly. Has the ability but will need to pass a wall of horses.
Maules Creek: Maps to go forward today but can’t win on previous form lines.
Strike The Stars: Good luck forgiving him again today. Won’t be winning.
Scream Machine: Runs have been very solid last two runs and looks to be peaking. This horse takes 3-5 runs to get to maximum fitness and seems to be there back up to the 2000m. Perfectly weighted and maps VERY well. Hitting line hard!
Gazza Guru: Puts in a very good run every so often then disappoints. Hard to catch.
Sindarin: Hard to see the progression here. Others better.
Pirate Bay: Arrrr. No thanks matey.
Sysmo: Big run at Bendigo two back and then got the cash last start at Cnaterbury easily when looked gone on the turn. Don’t dismiss.
Our Girl Charlize: Hard to see here today.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 4, 8, 11
Strategy: Back both runners to win or Scream Machine E/W.
Royal Randwick Race 7
Dear Demi: Should be peaking at the trip but was VERY disappointing last start. Weight class and weight today, something has to change… the long straight may be the difference?
Habibi: Ran well enough last start and will enjoy the extra 400m today, but has to overcome an extra 2.5L to Longport.
Longport: Huge run last start. May not be suited by the track today.. but speedmaps suggest he will have the race to himself out front and can dictate the speed. Will trade in shorter than the current $8 quote in run for sure.
Royal Descent: Seems to be peaking after a very strong win last start a course and similar distance. Don’t dismiss.
More Than Sacred: Another New Zealand Runner first up over here. Up against it.
Cameo: Failed last start over 200m and looks to struggle over 2400m on paper for mine.
Summerbliss: Needs to position further forward to have a home.
Gondokoro: Ridden for luck but not good enough last start.
Wind Bender: Can’t see a win here.
She’s A Girl: Gone backwards last two runs. Not good enough.
Zuccotto: Hard to see the progression.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3
Strategy: I would like to revisit this race tomorrow once the rain has come. I think Dear Demi is a big price if we don’t have much rain overnight. I would feel much more confident on a dead than slow track.. while Longport is the only front runner I want to be on all day due to the tempo of this race and where the chances will position.. but only on slow. He reminds me a lot of might and power the way he just stays on when he gets a lead.
Royal Randwick Race 8
Shoot Out: Just keeps running well and is up to winning this. Only issue is others better weighted today. Should get a solid run from position.
Pierro: The one to beat. Hard off at the weights compared to everyone else in race but is clearly the best. Better suited on Dead than slow.
Glass Harmonium: Always runs well but is better suited to a dry track. Also prefers further.
Veyron: Maps to lead up today with GH. Weighted very well today all things considered and loves a slow track.
Danleigh: Won 5 from 9 on slow… ran 0.5l 0.5l and 1.5l off last three starts. Down 3kg today and meets all runners better off at weights today. Peaking and massive overs.
Happy Trails: 1600m is his distance but how well is he going? Will be coming hard late but others look better weighted. Prefer dead or better track. Did lose plate last start.
Ethiopia: Overrated runner. Prefers further.
Secret Admirer: Good run last start but VERy poorly weighted.
Solzhenitsyn: If you get a dead track or better then he is a huge chance. Just didn’t handle the slow last start and weighted so well today.
Lamasery: Didn’t show enough first up.
Appearance: Just keep swimming. Good, slow, dead.. just eats it up. Weighted well again and will be hitting the line as you know.
Red Tracer: Maps better today than Appearance but may struggle to get in. Never won at this distance.
Streama: Injured during last start and ran very well. Could be a danger.
Norzita: Huge progression this prep and good win alst start. Poorly weighted against Appearance but back to 1600m is good mapping for here. Issue from barrier where she sits.
Monton: Hard to see the win here from barrier but weighted very well agianst Shoot Out. Prefer good track.
Alma’s Fury: Ran well enough all runs this prep and weighted nicely. Has a chance.
Fontelina: Very good run last start but maps poorly but very well weighted.
Sacred Falls: 2nd to It’s A Dundeel doesn’t look bad and down 3.5k today. Hard to see how good this horse is but loves it wet.
Lightinthenite: Not classy enough for this.
Aeronautical: Huge off a very fast tempo at Flemington. May get the chance to sprint but questions at distance.
Strike The Stars: Nope.
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11, 14
Strategy: Take the $50 Tote Extra bet on Pierro on Betfair for money back if doesn’t win and a decent E/W on Danleigh at crazy exchange odds.
Royal Randwick Race 9
Star Of Octagonal: Did nothing first up and hard to see a win here off weights.
All Legal:N t in form this prep.
Macknuckle: Not ran since 2011. Can’t have here.
Instinction: Fairly average first up but should run better today up to 1400m. Suited by track and maps well off weights.
Cantonese: Looking for further and never won first up.
Merlin Mustang: Beat home a handy horse called FORETELLER last prep over 1400m. This looks very winable today even without ever winning first up with bossy onboard. Overs.
Irish Dream: Not going well enough this prep it seems.
Keith’s Legacy: Great win by Keith last start. Should be the one to beat here.
Aerobatics: Not disgraced this prep but needs another run.
Peal of Bells: Too short today.
Brightest: Poor first up but runs very well 2nd up. May be wanting slightly further.
Euryale: If trained back into form can go close today.
Destiny’s Kiss: Average horse in a strong field. Needs further.
Under The Sun: Back to a suitable distance. Won 4 from 6. Doesn’t like it slow but if dead can win.
Altered Boy: Average last start but will enjoy more rain if it comes. Add to quaddies and give a chance if slow.
Home on a Wing: Not a runner for this distance.
Secessio: Good last prep. Looks progressive. Wanting further but can win this trip.
Honourable Aussie: Wants further and poor first up record.
Australian Star: Likes it wet and loves the distance. Don’t Dismiss.
Quaddie leg four: 6, 8, 13, 15, 16, 20
Strategy: Keith looks the one to beat while Merlin Mustang if comes back in form can win.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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