Horse Racing Form for Randwick and Flemington Saturday 13 April 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Randwick and Flemington! Group race after group race. There are some serious fields and we have several horses under the $2 quote, with two $1.40 or less. I don’t normally like pointing towards multis, but you have to feel that Dundeel and Black Caviar is super odds in a multi with other 3-4 leg multis around those two also. There are MANY great promotions on offer today so look to use the best available for each race! As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.

Promotions

Betfair are offering their normal Saturday promotions such as the Quaddie first leg refund at Randwick (lose in first leg but back last 3, money back up to $100), 3 Times a Charm (back 3 winners at Rosehill in the day using the Tote Extra product $25 minimum stake for $100 bonus) and Done in a Close one (0.4L or less refund if 2nd) on Tote Extra ($50 max). There is also a Guess how far Black Caviar wins by promotion and also the Tipping competition. View the promotions here.

*Please note that there are HIGHER confidence levels in Sydney today – even on best bets*

Best Bet Sydney
Randwick Race 4 Hathras

Best Bet Melbourne
Flemington Race 6 Banca Mo

Next Best Sydney
Randwick Race 3 Queenstown

Next Best Melbourne
Flemington Race 5 Sharalam

Best Value Sydney
Randwick Race 8 Lady’s Angel

Best Value Melbourne
Flemington Race 8 The New Boy

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Randwick Race 1
Iconic: Huge step up today. Won very well at Bendigo last start. Needs to improve to win this.
Safeguard: Very good first up win at Flemington. Been off a long time now and has the sectionals to compete.
Diamond Oasis: Strong enough last start at Rosehill but outclassed here.
Divine Calling: Form lines around Diamond Oasis rule him out.
Zaba Zaba Doo: Not the worst. Good win first up at track but times were just average. Can still run well.
Il Cavallo: Super win first up. Rare you see a 4L win over 900m.. over a horse who two back won a 900m maiden by 5L. Form looks strong.
Everage: Strong form lines on heavy and was not disgraced behind Overreach. Can run very well.
Madame Fly: Doesn’t look good enough for this.
Consomme: Hard to see a place.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Expect Il Cavallo to be one of the best backed horses of the day. Main threat is Safeguard.. prices look to not allow a saver.

Randwick Race 2
Tatra: Just keeps on running on well. Will be out the front and should be placing. Still a winning chance.
Toydini: Big big big win last start. Up 2kg today but looks to be going great guns. Will Tatra fall for the same mistake as the others in that previous race and put a stupid speed on?
Lunar Rise: Ran well enough last start behind Fedde but has to improve again here. Probably not going as well as last prep where Tatra had the better of him.
Proverb: Blocked for run but didn’t show much at all last start. Back down to 1600m where has never won but always goes close. Form around Tatra and Lunar Rise last prep but couldn’t beat them.
Flying Snitzel: Big win at Flemington and then ran on well enough last start behind Appeareance. Will appreciate the Randwick straight today much more. Big chance.
Honorius: Can’t see the win on previous 3 runs.
Bradman: Blocked for run and injured during race last start so could be a forgive run. I think he will run really well today and is a sneaky chance.
Hawkspur: Should position further forward today but didn’t show me enough first up. Needs a few more runs.
Diamond Costa: Not in this.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Will Toydini have the race run to suit? I think so. Flying Snitzel may get trapped and is still a question mark around how the horse runs up in Sydney. Still, have to saver. Price on Toydini is right.

Randwick Race 3
Royal Descent: So close last start and will improve up to 2000m today it seems. Big issue is weight today.
Gold Epona: Keeps runnng well. Chance again today.
Unimpeachable: Weighted nicely today against others from Cameo race. Might find one too good again?
Hold Me Tight: This looks much harder today than up in Queensland.
Campania: Hasn’t measured up to this class.
Queenstown: Slowly away and still won by 3L in an easier race in a very good time. Down 3kg today also. Looks the one!
Sail: Ignore last start prehaps? Should run better today.
Express Power: Won well enough last start but this looks much harder today and not good at weights.
Wind Bender: Back to longer distances which should suit. Hard to see up in class today though this horse breaking through again.
Divertire: Meets Unimpeachable 3kg worse off today. Hard to win off that alone.
Coyote Miss: Poorly weighted today.
Torio’s Pride: This is MUCh harder than previous runs.
Fourtracks Forkids: Didn’t show enough last start.
Red Letters: Not up to this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Gai’s runner Queenstown looks the real deal.

Randwick Race 4
Mourayan: Will be suited by extra distance today, but has been running poorly this prep. Hard to see much progression to win this, but is in lesser company.
Julienas: Going great guns this prep. Down 1kg today and 1.5kg worse off against Permit today. Rates to win again.
Blood Brotha: Won this prep when positioned forward 4 runs back at 2400m in NZ Group 2 level then ran very average since. Needs to go forward to have a chance.
Permit: Weighted well enough to threaten today but needs to improve 0.5L or so IMO.
Vatuvei: Ran well enough last start at Caulfield and is looking for the extra distance he gets here today. Weighted to win.
Aliyana Tilde: Ran on very well last start and just snuck the win. Down 2kg but up in class. Has to find another level and big questions around distance.
Thy: Meets Aliyana Tilde better at weights today but doesn’t look to be the better horse. No thanks.
Coliseo: Equal weight with Julienas today and hard to see the extra lengths in legs today.
Tremec: Horribly weighted today against Permit. Can’t have on that alone.
Hathras: Was strong enough last start behind Fiveandahalfstar. Should be better suited to less rain and off 53kg is weighted to win. Huge price!
Hula Lua: Run behind Lights of Heaven had merit. Down in weight today but this is probably too hard.
Saintly Sun: Big win last startr in much easier company. A place wouldn’t shock.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Very keen on Hathras here with a saver on Julienas.

Randwick Race 5
Charlie Boy: A lot of talk about his run in the slipper. For mine, 6 lengths off is 6 lengths off. No thanks at the price.
Champollion: Good win last start but this is MUCH harder. Still a very strong chance.
Windjammer: Not good enough to measure up here.
Havana: Progressive type who could sneak a place.
So Man Up: Won a maiden. Moody runner but progress this much? No.
Drago: Everything went wrong. Big question marks about this runner.
Overreach: The one to beat. Was dominant last start. Lasted the 1200m on slow so WILL last the 1400m on dead. Will win.
Guelph: Ran very well last start as expected. Could position further forward to give a chance to run a place today.
Villa Verde: Went backwards in the slipper which was surprising. Ran on very well then hit a wall. Doesn’t have the required sprint.
Scandiva: Slowly run race last start won out the front. No thanks here.
Shahad: Have to rate the run last start off a slow pace. Could be hitting the line hard.
Thump: Nope. Can’t see the win here.
Florid Affair: The horse you can’t stack up. Could be a super horse.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Happy to take the $1.70-$1.80 on offer for Overreach. Should be $1.40 or less.

Randwick Race 6
Voila Ici: Showed NOTHING first up but may position further forward. Not up to this it seems.
Class is Class: Showed enough last start to suggest if trained on can go close today. Don’t dismiss.
Skyerush: Poor last start up in class. Weighted poorly today.
Havana Rey: Huge win last start. Up 3.5kg today seems ok to me. Rates to win again today.
Alma’s Fury: Keeps running well enough this prep. Could go close again.
All Legal: Not good enough on runs this prep after spell.
Stout Hearted: Showed nothing first up. Wants further.
Raspberries: Good enough behind Bello last start but this is a harder level of race.
Beaten Up: Ran on well from way back. Should position similar position today and peak around 3rd up.
Illo: Showed nothing last prep. With Waller now, could turn it around?
Moriarty: 3 from 4 at distance but not the best first up record (did win last start first up). Would like to see him over further but did VERY well last prep.
Mahisara: Ran well enough first up and should run better today. Not in best form IMO and needs a few more runs.
Shenzhou Steeds: Didn’t show enough last start.
Maules Creek: Not good enough for this.
Scream Machine: Ran on well enough but can’t see the progression just yet.
Jacquinot Bay: Don’t discount at the weights. Should be better now training into the prep. Does probably need a run or tow more though.
Less Is More: Didn’t measure up in Australia last prep. Could find more this prep.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 5, 12, 13, 17
Strategy: Havana Rey a huge price again today. Only issue is the gate. Just keeps rating to win these.

Randwick Race 7
It’s A Dundeel: WOW! 6.5L win last start was huge MASSIVE. There wasn’t even much speed in the race. Could come in with 5-6KG extra and be winning this.
Hvasstan: Just ignore last start run when nothing went right. Can run better today.
Philippi: Progresse dwell this prep and is ready to put in another big run. Was great last start winning by 3L. The favourite in Dundeel out markets.
Solemn: Not up to this.
Hippopus: Will position more forward today and should be better suited. Could test Philippi.
Bass Strait: Can’t see a win. Has gone backwards last two starts.
Gerontius: hard to see the progression although rider did lose whip last start.
Kingdoms: Ran on well enough last start to suggest could sneak a place.
High Shot: Lost all hope with this horse. Spell it!
BLoodbuzz Ohio: Nope.
Confidence: 95%
Quaddie leg two: 1
Strategy: Happy to add It’s A Dundeel into any and every multi.

Randwick Race 8
Mrs Onassis: Back down in class today and should position further forward today than last start. Ready to return to winning ways.
Satin Shoes: Not shown anything this prep.
Altar: Ran well enough last start but needs to find much more today.
Dystopia: Every man and his dog is saying they want to back Dystopia today at the price. Up 5kg and down in class today. Didn’t show me enough last start personally. Give her a chance but not on top!
Arinosa: Huge run two back, even bigger last start. Progressive type who is going great guns. Suited by this track and is over the odds.
Karuta Queen: Returned well this prep and is getting to the point where you could expect she can win. All depends if ride out front and times ran.
Miss Stellabelle: Meets Arinosa much better at the weights today but has to find huge improvement.
Detours: Won 3 of 4 first up which is positive but only once from 9 at class. Hard to see measuring up.
Ladys Angel: Disappointing last start. Ignore that. Look to previous run where 1.3L behind Arinosa. Meets an amazing 5.5kg better off today! Run before that 0.5L 3rd to Red Tracer. HUGE chance at a HUGE price.
Soft Sand: Didn’t show anything last start but previous to that 2nd to Appearance. Better suited to further it seems.
Gai’s Choice: Was running well enough last prep and won 3/6 first up but this is MUCH harder today.
Emmalene: Doesn’t look progressive enough for this.
New Beginning: Ran well enough last start but must find MUCH more.
Shamal Wind: Big run last start when got going late. Can improve again.
Forfeiture: Hard to see the progression here… but it is a Snowden runner.
Forarainyday: Needs to find a career best run here.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 5, 6, 10, 11, 16
Strategy: Huge value in this race. Backing my top 2 with saver on Mrs Onassis.

Randwick Race 9
Hay List: We know how good he has been in recent years. Is 6 wins from 6 second up which is interesting. Should run well and will probably be value to place.
Bel Sprinter: Up 5kg today and probably won’t get as vicious a pace out front? Still, that was a SUPERSTAR run last start.
Rain Affair: Ran on strongly for 2nd behind superstar Pierro. Big chance to place today.
Decision Time: Just keeps putting in solid runs. Up against it at weights today though.
Atomic Force: Hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Title: Weighted poorly. No thanks.
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Ignore last start and look to two back. Hard to place today at the weights though.
Onthelookout: How does this horse get a run?
Black Caviar: Superstar. Wins by let’s say 3.3 lengths.
Sea Siren: Poor Poor Poor firs tup. Has to improve today but how much? Needs to find a few lengths for sure today but is 5kg better off against Bel.
Epaulette: Huge last prep and if you take a 2.5L 3rd to Pierro and 2.3L to All Too Hard from last prep, has every chance to place today.
Confidence 100%
Quaddie leg four: 9
Strategy: Black Caviar just slots in nicely to any and every multi at the price. I took the $2 for Bel Sprinter to Place early this week but have lost confidence. I think the prices on Epaulette and Sea Siren to place are value while Hay List is a chance also. Probably skip the fav out or place markets in this race and just simply enjoy it so I can focus on the mighty mare!

Flemington Race 1
Lankan Rupee: Didn’t return in career best form last start. Ignore that down in class today and is weighted well enough to win this if trained on.
Day Procedure: Ignore last start run and look to previous four. Shamexpress franks this form certainly. Weighted well off 54.5kg after claim and if can last out the front is a very good thing.
Planet Voyage: Failed to progress this prep after winning first up. Weighted well but hard to see turning previous prep form around on Lankan.
Flamberge: Just keeps running solid races and may be suited here back over the straight distance. Up 3kg from previous run here though.
Genteel: Surprised to see her first up as the favourite here up in class. Has won 2 of 3 first up. Did win very well at track and distance last prep but needs to improve significantly again.
Walk With Attitude: Finished last prep with a great win at track. She will handle the trip on previous form but you get the feeling would prefer something longer.
Formidable: Ran well enough at Bendigo but this is much harder.
Source Code: Not good enough for this on previous form.
Tricky Glen: Running some decent times but this is much harder.
Starchine: Not up to this.
Royal Rada: Needs to have found an extra leg when off.
Top Cat In Town: Not up to this on ratings.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Too many questions in this race. Happy to also see where the best ground is on the straight and also rails.

Flemington Race 2
Lady of Harrods: Got beaten but was still a huge run last start when didn’t run where she is best suited. SHOULD be pushing forward today and from 57kg down in class today be winning this.
Energia Elegante: Weighted well today but up in class again. Hard to see it.
Big Chill: Ran well enough 2nd to Sari last start but never placed at track or won at distance.
Mama’s Choice: Never placed at track or distance from 3 tries or 2 tries 2nd up. Needs further.
Coins: Went close to a win first up this prep and down 2kg today and up in distance and class. Has the ability to run well.
Later Gator: Very strong run last start behind Sino Eagle. Down to 52kg today which gets her in well.
Zombie Dancer: Ran well enough first up but this is much harder. Will still be going close.
Maluti: Down from Sydney. Has placed at distance previously and placed last two times 2nd up. Has ability and weighted nicely.
Easy To Look At: Can’t have. Shown nothing last two runs.
Spitfire Lady: BIG win last start at Bendigo in a 6 horse race. This is much harder but is weighted well enough.
Tyanna: Ignore last start and rate on run previous to that. Not weighted nicely against Later Gator today though.
Rosscarbery: Decent win 2nd up this prep up in Sydney. Much harder race today though.
Mybenz: Very close last start at Bendigo which came out of nowhere. Down to 51kg today but hard to see the progression.
Young Girl: Ignore last start when galloped on. Still doesn’t look good enough for this.
Catered: Big run last start when blocked but needs to find a lot more at weights.
Nautical: Can’t win a maiden!
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Very keen on top two picks in this race. Both suited and hard to see anything else progressing past them.

Flemington Race 3
Churchill Dancer: Huge run last start and only up 0.5kg today. Progressive enough to win this.
D’Ampezzo: First starter for Snowden yard with Duric booked. Half-brothers/sisters look to be ok but nothing special.
Hard Stride: Weighted to win today down 2kg. Boss goes on.
Kievann: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Star Realm: Ran well enough last start but others look better.
Tonyboy: Every chance today on form lines behind Hard Stride at Bendigo first up. Don’t dismiss.
Washington Square: Ran on very well behind Il Cavallo who looks to be a solid type. Could be value.
Pathways: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Spirits Dance: Needs to be less green today to stand a chance.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Pass!

Flemington Race 4
Serpent: First up in Australia after winning 3 in a row. Word is that this horse is very good. Up 4kg today is big issue.
Kings Palace: Won well last start at Caulfield and meets Shoreham 1kg better off today also. Big chance on previous runs.
Shoreham: Keeps running well but hard against it at weights.
Green Roller: Poor last start at Caulfield. SOmething went wrong? Hard to see progression to win this.
Perfect Length: Blocked for run last start but was too far back anyway.
Bessano: Keeps going close so don’t count out but may not be up to this.
Bel Thor: Went well last start but hard to see the tables turning at weights.
Kemtain: Won a maiden. That is all. Needs better form for this race.
Northern Journey: Not good enough on previous runs.
Lighthouse Flame: Won a maiden and not overly convincingly. No thanks.
McNulty: Can’t win a maiden but doesn have potential.
Like A Carousel: Can’t win maidens.
Apparos: Can’t win maidens.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Better races to bet on today.

Flemington Race 5
Callanish: Just keeps finding ways not to win and put in worst run all prep last start. Down 0.5kg today after claims. Never won at track but loves the distance.
Star of Giselle: Have to forgive last start and look to previous runs. Harshly weighted you have to suggest.
British General: Been up so long this prep and just keeps on running very well. 56.5kg looks suitable today and runs best at Flemington. Big chance today.
Lidari: First up Moody runner over from France. Not sure will measure up in this class first up but did go ok over there.
Bonaria: Ignore last start and look to two back when got VERY lucky. Needs luck but can go close.
Laristan: Hasn’t won since 2011 and last prep didn’t show much. Hard to have.
Eraset: Down to 53kg today which looks ok but hard to have.
Verdant: Down to 52kg today after claims and has won first up before. May be wanting further, but there will be a true pace on and off the weights could run very close.
Sweet Ella: Doesn’t look suitable in this class off last start.
Sharalam: Big win first up at Sandown and then 2nd placed runner won this week on Wednesday also. Weighted well enough to win.
Altonio: Looking for further you feel but this is a chuck at the stumps. Looks overs when you consider won 2 of 3 at distance previously.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 3, 10, 12, 13
Strategy: Sharalam should be too strong for these. Very progressive while Verdant is weighted so well and is a horse with Huge upside. Better suited to further but we saw what Puissance De Lune could do over 1600m, plus many others who are better over further. Back both and saver Brit.

Flemington Race 6
Norsqui: Huge win last start over 3200m in Adelaide. Back to 2000m today doesn’t suit for mine. Off 57kg is ok but not for me.
Banca Mo: BIG BIG BIG win last start over Dany The Fox and very strong 2nd previous to that in Adelaide behind Under The Eiffel. Down 2kg today to 56.5kg and looks suited. 2/2 at distance and 1/1 from 2 at track.
King Diamond: Ran on well last start behind Cosmic Causeway and at weights looks to be in well.. but probably wanting 2400m+.
Black and Bent: Another run to get fit for Hurdles.
Zabisco: In very well today at the weights up 2.5kg for two recent runs behind Jet Away.
Cuban Sunday: Poor first up run. Ignore if you like and go off other runs. Can go well but never won 2nd up.
AUld Burns: Turned a corner this prep and weighted nicely again today. Just seem sto be outclassed here though.
Goldoni: Will be liking the extra 300m today and certainly wasn’t disgraced last start at Caulfield. Could also enjoy the straight. Big chance.
Streaky Fella: Better further into runs but was ok last start. Needs further.
Storm BUrst: Super disappointing last start. Down 2.5kg today but doesn’t gain much on banca Mo. Probably want’s shorter distances for mine.
Muirfield: Ran well enough firs tup but has to find much more.
Westsouthwest: Ran on very well last start at the Valley but this is much harder even though weighted well.
Garud: Big run behind Under The Eiffel last start over a distance that doesn’t suit. Staight to 2000m today and is suited big time. Expect a huge run!
Shiny Buttons: Just keeps running well but disappointed last start.
King’s A Star: Big win last start. Could be value.
Xavi: You can’t count him out ever. Up in class today but reasons to forgive last start loss.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 9, 15, 19
Strategy: Banca Mo one of the best of the day here. Weighted and rated to win. Garud looks a big threat and deserves a bet also.

Flemington Race 7
General Truce: Ran VERY well last start behind African Pulse at Caulfield… and last two runs at Flemington have been sizzling over this distance in this class. with one win and a close 1.8L 6th. Weighted well today.
Winter King: Hard to see him up in class today turning the tables on General Truce.. but two back run was good.
Lady Melksham: How good was her first up win? Was it special? I’m not so sure. Remember, the last time she ran at Flemington on the straight she lost in similar grade. This is the testing material and she looks a little short!
That’s The One: Runs well first up and weighted well today. Has a very good record at the track winning 2 from 4 and last win was here but was over further. Never actually run the 1000m before so no idea how will go.
Eight Bills: Off the 51kg today after claims. Last start blocked for runs after being slowly away off a very slow pace out front as well. Every chance today if produces best.
Sharnee Rose: Big win last start by Sharnee Rose who has returned in fine form. Who am I to question this runner who is now winning!
Dash For Viz: Better suited to further distances but does like FLemington. Better further into prep.
Decircles: Things just keep going wrong for him. He keeps finding one too good. Hard to have but you know he will go close.
Livingno: Can’t have on previous runs.
Societal: Not in this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 6, 8, 9
Strategy: Sharnee Rose looks to be in career best form this prep and more progression to come while General truce is rock hard fit and loves this straight. Back both.

Flemington Race 8
My Bentley: Never won at distance or second up before. Looking for further and isn’t in good form.
Scaredymac: Goes very well first up and does measure up in this class normally, but weight looks a little harsh.
New York: Not going as well as last prep but still very much in this today. Back to 1400m is a big plus and claim of 3kg essential today. Will take a sit forwardish and be running on.
Lake Sentenia: Word around that she is flying at the moment. Hard to rate off the Bool run where didn’t go as well as you would hope. Think she wants further.
Twilighting: Poor first up and hard to see the progression here.
Crucial: Runs well first up and ran well here last prep. Don’t dismiss.
The New Boy: Freshened up for a month and back at a track he loves. Ignore last start and look at previous 4 runs where 0.4L or less away from a win. Will be rolling forward today and be the one to pass. 1400m is a BIG bonus IMO.
Clanga’s Glory: Poor last start and can’t see winning this.
Manhattan Maid: Hard to see win here on last few runs.
Dowager Queen: Need luck to win this today. Is weighted ok though.
Laspiel: Hasn’t shown anything all prep.
Hidden Message: Quality horse with some big runs in her. Very strange to see the drop back to 1400m today. Weighted very well off 52kg and has the ability to win no doubt. Have to include in quad.
Mecir: Not going well enough it seems.
Subiaso: Back in class today but will he measure up? Hasn’t been going well enough for mine to win but can’t leave out of quad.
Little Bro: Keeps putting in solid runs and even off 51kg probably wont place.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 5, 6, 9, 15
Strategy: Yep, The New Boy, Again. We will get him one of these days and does look suited here.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

Leave a Reply