Welcome to The Profits form for Rosehill and Caulfield. A cracking four group 1s are up for grabs in Sydney today and we have some fairly confident picks today. Therefore, the main focus has been on the Sydney races and not Melbourne. As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
I do want to point you to what I will call the ‘Winning edge’ for today. Betfair have been running this promotion all Autumn and it continues today. If your horse runs second by less than 0.5L, they refund your money ($50 max). Find out more at http://betfair.com.au/promotions/.
Rosehill Race 8 Moment of Change
Rosehill Race 9 Earnest Ernest
Rosehill Race 6 Sangster
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Rosehill Race 1
Hot Snitzel: Back to his best form last prep and back to listed company today. Has won 3 of 5 first up. 2nd to Mid Summer Music and 4th to Unpretentious is good enough to win this.
Instinction: Back in class last prep won well at Caulfield and then failed next run. Hard to judge if can run on well here. Only won once first up.
See the World: Decent form lines but hard to see the win on first up run.
Welkom Gold: Has abgility and did win in similar class last prep. This looks harder though.
Didntcostalot: Won second up in a very fast time. Equally weighted today but never wonf rom 8 starts at class. Can go close.
Anise: Hasn’t won since April 2011 and only once first up from 5 starts. Showed enough last start to suggest can go close.
Hidden Warrior: Last start won a Group 3 and then failed in Group 1. Can go close today on recent form.
Hurrara: Form lines are solid enough and can run on well.
Shamus: Good win last start in Canberra but this is much harder company.
Strategy: Hot Snitzel is a special horse and looks to be coming back well today. The price looks overs.
Rosehill Race 2
Villa Verde: Super impressive two runs last prep in Melbourne and looks well in here. Has a 1.3L run over Overreach and equally weighted again today.
Overreach: 5.8L impressive win first up this prep… been freshed up and comes back over a month later. No doubt she is special, but so is Villa Verde. A cracker of a race to come!
Diva Dee: Ran on well last start but this looks much harder class for mine.
Go Again: Bold win first up but this is much harder.
Spurrendous: Can’t see a win here.
Strategy: Keen for Villa Verde to win this and also win the Slipper.
Rosehill Race 3
Sanagas: Didn’t see enough last start. Best is past him?
Alma’s Fury: Huge win two back and then last start was a very strong run. Back in class today and has every chance!
Julienas: Ran well enough firs tup at a lesser distance. Up to 1900m and has a great chance today.
Le Roi: Won four in a row last prep around this distance including a Group 3 last prep (didn’t look anywhere near as good as this race though). Big step up IMO.
Single: Ran well enough last few starts. Ignore last start on heavy and can win.
Frozen Rope: Just keeps putting in good runs and will be there at the end once again.
Hoylonny: 2nd to Bello not looking too bad now. Weighted nicely and up in distance needed. Big big big chance.
Carry Me Bluey: Hard to back here today at the weights.
Lunayir: Huge run from last here last start. Up in class and down 4kg plus up to 1900m.. could be a very good chance.
Izebabe: Hard to see the progression off last start.
Under The Sun: Always looks well in the coat and down 5kg today, but needs to improve from last start.
Strategy: Very hard race. Alma’s Fury E/W with a small win bet Hoylonny looks a solid play.
Rosehill Race 4
Criterion: I thought the run was very impressive last start. Can go close today if repeats that.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Hard to go past this form. 2nd to Miracles of Life in the Blue Diamond and down 1kg today. As long as gets the run, will be hitting the line super hard.
Whiskey Allround: Good run first up when galloped on, jumped awkwardly and tightened. Simply forgive. Go close from barrier 1
Never Can Tell: Didn’t handle the track and also injured during race. Has huge ability but I can’t back here.
Charlie Boy: Decent enough first up but not for me here.
Va Pensiero: Good win first up and then ran on well last start. Kind of unlucky not to win. Barrier 10 an issue.
Sidestep: Equal weight today with Criterion and needs to find more today. Hard to see it.
Windjammer: Couldn’t back in this class.
Havana: Can forgive first up run.
Strategy: Small win bet on both runners.
Rosehill Race 5
Albrecht: Hard to back him today after those first three runs this prep. Shown nothing.
Ashokan: Ran well enough last start at Canberra but you would really have wanted to see him win last start. Still a big chance.
Honorius: Fairly average first up but last start simply forgive last start on heavy. Form lines are decent enough.
Ninth Legion: Progressive this prep but up against it in this class. Should still go very close.
Toydini: Ignore first up on heavy. Can go close today.
Rowie: Ran 2nd to Fiveandahalfstar last prep. Disappointed firs tup though.
Turnley: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to touch.
Force Command: Ran well enough last start but suspect won’t measure up just like ninth legion.
Indianapolis: No thanks.
High Shot: Can’t give him any more chances.
Coyote Miss: Ran well enough last start but this is much harder.
Strategy: Too many chances and hard to match these up. No thanks.
Rosehill Race 6
Manighar: Too far back first up and should get a better run today. Bad second up record but is a good horse and can bounce back.
Sangster: The price on this horse is amazing. New Zealand form doesn’t always match up over here, but when you consider he has won by 2.8L, 2L and 2.3L in Group 1, Group 2 and WFA G1, he looks suited at the 2000m. Big chance!
Foreteller: Hard to back today after 7L behind Fiveandahalfstar at Flemington..
Mawingo: Didn’t show much last start. Should improve today.
Niwot: Was actually ok second up. Could run on very well.
Kelinni: Not shown us enough first two runs this prpe. Needs a few more runs.
Maluckyday: Up against it off 59kg today. Will be running on late.
Gatewood: May position further forward today to be in with a chance, but hard to see the win on previous form lines and runs..
Silent Achiever: Very strong run last start and can win today off that run.
Fiveandahalfstar: Super 2nd last start when galloped on. The one to beat.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 6, 12, 13
Strategy: 3 units to place 2 units to win on Sangster.
Rosehill Race 7
Streama: Just couldn’t measure up against Steps In time. Hard to see winning today.
Red Tracer: Brave win last start but this is a step up and prefers wet.
Steps In Time: Huge win last start in a very fast time. Will go close today! Only issue is barrier.
Pear Tart: Weighted better today but not good enough for this.
Appearance: Weighted well but won’t measure up.
Dear Demi: Big win last start and down 1.5kg today. Others weighted better though.
Norzita: A little flat last start and poorly weighted here today against Flying Snitzel.
Zurella: Won at distance last prep in similar class. Ran very well first up this prep in NZ in WFA-G1. Very good chance.
Star Of Giselle: Speed maps very well to take a sit. Can go close off weights. Always runs well.
Driefontein: Just keeps putting in solid runs and down 3.5kg today meets Dear Demi 1.5kg better off today which could be the difference. Issue is barrier 12.
Flying Snitzel: Super running on after being slowly away. Hit the line very hard. Down 3kg today and meets Norzita 2kg better off today for beating her by 1.3L! Value!
Bennetta: Speed maps to win this race and weighted to win off 54kg. Has to be given a better ride today!
Risk Aversion: Great run first up and weighted nicely. Just hard to see her measuring up here but could surprise with a place..
Irish Dream: Not up to this.
Quaddie leg two: 3, 8, 11, 13
Strategy: Happy to back Bennetta and Flying Snitzel hard. Both look good here.
Rosehill Race 8
Happy Trails: Huge last prep. First up last prep won at a similar distance. This looks a little tougher than that, but can run on well. Better suited to 1300m than other favourites here.
Rain Affair: Didn’t show anything last prep. On his best, he can win this. Has never lost at track.
Moment of Change: Super effort last start when you consider the time the race was ran in and he did all the work out the front. This won’t be run at such a frantic pace and he will be the one to beat IMO.
Solzhenitsyn: Looks outclassed here for mine. Good horse and can place, but not measuring up.
Fontelina: Not up to this.
Aeronautical: Outclassed on weights.
More Joyous: Won 11 from 13 at distance. If runs up to last prep runs, can’t win this.. but looks to be going well in track work.
Secret Admirer: Never won first up. Goes well always but this may be too short.
Mid Summer Music: Going well but not well enough for this!
Pierro: Is this his best distance? I suspect he is a 1600m horse personally. Still the 2nd rated horse here for mine.
Quaddie leg three: 3, 10
Strategy: Very confident on Moment of Change here today.
Rosehill Race 9
New Day Rising: Hasn’t won since 2011 and hasn’t ran well for a long time. Been off a while but the weight looks certainly too much.
Agister: Won well two back and ran on well last start. Can go close today.
Earnest Ernest: Dangerous horse deep into preps and ran 2.8L behind Moment of Change last prep when blocked for run! Has the ability to win.
Australian Star: Hard to see him winning here around form lines.
Raceway: Shown nothing this prep but both runs on heavy.
Snitsky: Big step up in class today, but has shown ability. Don’t dismiss.
Territory: Can’t see winning in this class.
Segue: Good win last start and before that.. but this is a big step up. Can run well.
Ying La: Not up to this even after good win last start.
Senta De Noche: Impressive first up win and down 4kg today. The one to beat.
Quaddie leg four: 4, 7, 11, 13
Strategy: Very keen on Earnest Ernest here. 3 units place 2 units win (saver Senta).
Caulfield Race 1
Couldn’t touch this race. Looks between Gravitational and Northern Jewel on last start form.
Caulfield Race 2
Whisper Downs comes into this race very well. Auld Burns doesn’t look suited by the track and ate up the Flemington straight. Whisper Downs just keeps running well here and looks weighted to win off 56.5kg.
Caulfield Race 3
Platelet was HUGE last prep. Back in class today but up to 60.5kg. The horse CAN carry the weight so don’t be put off by this. Main rival does look to be Elite Elle who is very progressive and weighted nicely.
Caulfield Race 4
Garud looking for further.. but is well weighted. Looks to be a race of two. British General never won at track previously but suspect will go close while Under the Eiffel also from 7 starts never won here. Big win last start though in Tasmania in WFA-LR level.
Caulfield Race 5
Average race at best. Suspect Tyanna can go forward today and run very well off 54kg after claim.
Caulfield Race 6
Very tough race with many a chance. Ready to Rip up against it at the weights but will run on well again, Go The Knuckle can win on last start run, Undeniably has the form lines to go close, Honey Flower resuming has progression and Forty Thirty is weighted well enough.
Caulfield Race 7
Hard to split the three at the bottom of the weights here in Xavi, Oriental Ruby and Spelldancer. All with huge claims and weighted well. Xavi looks the one who has the most progression and speedmaps best from barrier 4.
Caulfield Race 8
Very open race to finish the card. Petite Diableese shown enough to be the one to beat here.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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