Welcome to The Profits form guide for Rosehill Golden Slipper Day and Flemington on 5 April 2014. What kind of track will we be presented with? I will be getting up again at 9.30am after a long night on the form to check scratchings and track conditions and adjusting form accordingly if it hasn’t turned out as I have planned (very wet). There is some very good value on offer today while we are getting good prices on some stand out runners also. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Sydney Best Bet
Rosehill Race 4 Catkins
Loves it wet, loves it dry. Was a great run last start and was brave to the line. Much better at the weights today and I have her rated $1.45 here. We are getting $1.61 but I reckon we get closer to $1.70 at jump.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 1 Soosa Rama
I was taken back by Soosa Rama’s run last start at Moonee Valley. This was a run from the back of the field 4-5 wide around the turn and Soosa won with arrogance.. not just getting there… running away with it. The leader had every chance and was our best of the day and got mowed down by this classy thing. I took note that day and am amazed we are getting such high odds after a run like that in a race like this!
Sydney NEXT Best Bet
Rosehill Race 5 Atlante
Simply put, there is nothing I can say wrong about him today. Weighted well, maps well, handles track well and the price is correct for backing. Off run two back, wins here.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Flemington Race 7 Shamal Wind
Scratched last week but no matter, we get to back her finally today. Most importantly, she is weighted to win what looks a less than classy race. Decircles looks one of two main threats and is 1400m down to 1000m and has never won at 1000m before from 9 attempts. Pocket Rockets is the only other danger and doesn’t seem to be in top form.. but has to be savered. Any other day of the month this would be the best of the day.
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Rosehill Race 9 Kaypers
Keen as mustard on Kaypers today. Loves it wet and gets every opportunity today. Based on last few runs, Kaypers should be rated around a $8 shot here, yet we are getting $30s!
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Flemington Race 3 Gig
Not the highest priced E/W bet you have ever seen me put up, but this is a horse who ran within 1.8L of a WFA-G1 win and is weighted so well in this class today. There are a few progressive types, but Gig is the real deal and we shouldn’t be getting E/W odds today.
Other value runners on the card today
Rosehill Race 2 Maluckyday
Rosehill Race 3 Title
Rosehill Race 7 Suavito
Rosehill Race 8 Eloping
Flemington Race 3 Catered
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Rosehill Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 10, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16
Flemington Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 12, 19, 20
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 12, 15
Promotions
Sportsbet
Massive promo today from Sportsbet. If Earthquake wins the Golden Slipper and your horse runs within 3 lengths of her, you get your money back up to $100! First bet only. Fair to say you won’t get the ‘best’ odds around, but the promo is a great saver option if you like the quaker!
Sportingbet
Money back if your runner runs within a length of the winner of the Golden Slipper! Seems the place to bet on Earthquake if you are keen on her (max refund $100 – 1st bet only).
Ladbrokes
$4 for Solicit or Zanbagh to Win the Vinery Stud Stakes ($50 max bet first 1000 customers).
Best tote or SP + 20% on the Golden Slipper. That means you get an extra 20% on your winnings! Offer will also be available on the Doncaster Mile and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Valid up to $100. Stake is excluded, 20% extra is on winnings.
Bookmaker
$4 for Solicit or Zanbagh to Win the Vinery Stud Stakes ($50 max bet first 1000 customers).
Run 2nd to Fiorente in The BMW? Free Bet up to $50!
Centrebet
Money back if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd in the 2014 Golden Slipper! (Fixed odds or Centrebest – maximum refund $100).
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
Quake and Bake:- Money back if your horse runs second or third to Earthquake (Max Stake $50 – First Best of Five bet only)
The BMW Backup:- Money back if your horse runs second in The BMW (Max Stake $50 – First Best of Five bet only)
Slipper Day Quaddie:- Get a 25% boost on your quaddie winnings at Rosehill (Max boost $200)
Unibet
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Golden Slipper or Tuddoch Stakes? Money back up to $100 (first bet only in each race)!
PalmerBet
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Races covered this week up at Rosehill are: Golden Slipper Stakes, The BMW and the Storm Queen Stakes
Tom Waterhouse
From 9am, Place a bet up to $50 on Tom’s Div for the Golden Slipper and if your horse runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th, money back.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Rosehill Race 1
Much better races to bet into today. Not enough data, especially wet track data.
Comments: Hold onto your money for later.
Rosehill Race 2
Moriarty: Absolute unknown on wet tracks. Only slow start was a fail. Going very well this prep on first two runs and way back in class here weighted to win, but needs to handle the track.
Julienas: Good run last start behind Platy but 0 wins on dead and not been on a wet track.. doubt he runs.
Entirely Platinum: Only run on Heavy was a 3L win in much easier company. Continues to impress and move through the grades. Probably poorly weighted today all things considered, but he is clearly one of the best in the race.
Winning Glory: Found our first up in the grade. Not able to back here 2nd up in this class.
Junoob: Scratched last start when track looked too wet for him. No Opinion and no The Offer. If we get a slow track, you have to respect him, if heavy, hard to have.
Maluckyday: Never won on slow before, but did run a 2nd at the Melbourne Cup on slow. Handles it wet. Last start was a super run bolting home. Jumped 2L last and that cost him the race. Weighted nicely here and is a blow out chance from the barrier.
Less Is More: Loves it wet and should be happy with a heavy track if it comes today. Just not sure he is going well enough on last start run even though up to correct distance today.
Spillway: Blocked for run first up when ran home nicely behind Fat Al. Much harder race today but handles the slow going.
Disclaimer: 1 start 1 win on heavy over in GB. First up run was very poor over the 1600m on a good track. Up to 2000m suits with wins over 2200m on the record. Weighted nicely enough.
Hippopus: Showed nothing first up. Goes well on slow though.. but I can’t have in this class.
Lucky Lago: Didn’t show enough last start on the slow to suggest she has improved enough for this grade.
Comments: Got this down to four chances with Entirely Platnium the improver, Junoob the proven Quality, Maluckyday the bolter and disclaimer the unknown.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Entirely Platnium to win. Smaller bet on MaLuckyDay.
Rosehill Race 3
Temple of Boom: Loves it wet, but had every opportunity to run on last start and didn’t show much. Lesser grade today but top weight. Never placed at track an issue.. better the Melbourne way?
Hot Snitzel: Huge 2.3L 2nd to Lankan Rupee last start in 2013. Good first up record, goes well at track and in class and at distance. Won 3 from 4 on slow as well with the non-placed run a 0.8L 7th in Group 2 company. Big chance from barrier.
Flamberge: Shown his best on straight tracks but I think he is better than that. Disappointed last start at course and similar distance but I do think he is better over the 1200m. 1 start 1 win on heavy and has won on slow also so will handle the going. Barrier is perfect for him to lead or take a sit today depending on what they want to do. Weighted well enough to win today for mine.
Dances on Stars: Loves to place. Never won on anything but a good track but runs on heavy and slow have always been good. Not going well enough on two previous runs for mine.
Title: Good wet track record. First up run was ok with top weight. Last start was fairly rubbish compared to the others in this race. Needs to find 1-2 lengths on two back run at weights. Is probably over the odds though.
Liliburlero: Good first up win and unlucky to get run down last start. 0 starts on slow for 0 wins is an issue and hasn’t placed. Never placed in this class either.
Bennetta: Not shown us her best last prep but did put in one good run over 1400m. This isn’t her distance and neither is wet.
That’s A Good Idea: So lets rate this guy on his two back run 1L off Territory. Down 4.5kg today for that run on slow.. his first ever place on slow.. only ever won on good. Now compare to Title who lugged 2.5kg more (61kg) that day who is down 6kg (1.5kg better off).. at the weights they are both right in this.. yet one is $31 and the other is $3 favourite… also title has the better gate in 4 while this guy is barrier 8. Massive unders today.
Bull Point: Issue in the stalls, then didn’t jump get, back to the back of the field and his race was done. Vet report suggested hurt himself slightly in stalls so a forgive run for mine last start. Back to 1200m which looks his distance but BACK UP to open class is an issue for mine as you know with 3YOs. Weighted ok though at the 54kg. 2 wins from 4 on slow a nice key.
Said Com: Handles slow well but never won or placed on heavy. Better over further.
Comments: A fair bit of value around in this race. Happy to place three runners here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Flamberge to win. Lesser bets on Hot Snitzel and Title.
Rosehill Race 4
Catkins: Meow! The cat loves it wet. Won 3 from 4 on slow and 1 from 1 on heavy. Weighted so well today, very hard to see her losing this.
Sharnee Rose: Ran well last start but was no match for them. Way more worse off at the weights against the cat today hurts as well. Never won on slow or heavy.
Floria: Goes ok on wet but never won on it. Can’t have on last start run.
Vaquera: Never missed a place on slow and has won on it also. Back to 1500m after a 1400m to 1900m to 2000m prep.. strange. Needs to show a lot more today to win.
Diamond Drille: Very good win last start at Randwick. Got the right run for the day. Barrier hurts here. Goes well enough on heavy.
Alzora: 2 places on heavy in the past. First up record average and hasn’t proven in the past for this class.
You’re So Good: Close 2nd last start to Riziz but no real wet form and this is MUCH harder. Can’t see it today.
Angel of Mercy: Not going well enough and hates it wet.
Wistful: Blocked for runs last two start. Was an ignore run two back but poorly weighted against the cat today. Minor chance.. if heavy.. can place at odds.
Lorna May: 2L to Kanbagh rates as ok form here off bottom weight. Could handle ground? Place chance.
Comments: Catkins is the best bet on the card all day and is still a backable price.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Catkins to win.
Rosehill Race 5
Vilanova: Don’t really rate this guy. Thought the GP2 win was in a very poor field and won’t go close here. Needs a good track.
Atlante: How wet is it? Slow track? This guys a massive chance. Huge run two back 2nd and can go one better today. Barrier only issue.. better with a sit. Gets it I believe.
Pheidon: No wet track form and never won on anything but Good is a concern. Was a big win last start over the 2000m. Better with a sit? Not sure I can be near him on this track.
Koroibete: Very poor runs first two this prep. Likes it wet but can’t have him.
Best Case: No wet track form. Last start run was ‘ok’ but not the best of the field that is for sure.
Order of the Sun: Only ever placed on a good track. Last start and run before were poor. Very poor. Can’t see running a place here.
Show The World: Shown us absolutely nothing the last two runs this prep and hard to see that turning around unless they try lead or push forward? Unproven on wet ground.
Shikra: Won two in a row well enough but this is a massive step up and no wet form so no thanks.
Singing Flame: No wet form to go off but the yard were keen on him here. Last start was ok but needs to improve lengths to win this.
Gallatin: Missed start last start and paid the price. Was a solid run home… but lack of data and doubt he handles the ground fairly enough??? Although out of IRE and GB dam/sires wouldn’t surprise if he handles it.
Mountain View: Last two runs too poor to win this.
Star Wars: Would need to learn the force to have a chance and would need Luke to blast a few out of the front of him to place.
Brettan: Average runs this prpe… couldn’t win a BM-65 or CL2.
High Tec: Surprised how short he went up and is on the grift. Did win a slow maiden by 7L but that was a maiden. Will handle ground but doesn’t look good enough. Would say last start cna be ignored on blundering and slow away.
Sir Laszlo: Won a BM-60 after failing in a maiden or two. Goood job. Can’t see this.
Rodway: Maiden only winner. Only average last start at MV. Can’t have.
Comments: Hard to go past Atlante here. Sticks out.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Atlante to win.
Rosehill Race 6
Fiorente: Never been seen on a heavy track before, but does have a win on slow over Joshua Tree and Red Cadeaux at Newmarket in the UK by a lazy 2.75L with 58kg over this distance. Has also won a trial on heavy last prep which gives me all the indication I need. Ignore last start and rate on his best.
Foreteller: Seen a few heavy tracks in his time and ran in this race last year on a slow… zoomed home for a 1.4L 5th. A fair questionmark on him over this distance based off last prep but I think he is going well enough to be a small chance today.
Sertorius: Disappointing last start. Lacked the dash required when he needed to let down. Hasn’t seen a heavy track since he won a Show BM78 at Ararat by 3.5L so hard to exactly rate his wet form. Did win his maiden on a slow track. Just not sure he is good enough to place here.
Brigantin: Shown his best on Good tracks and that is pretty much it. Got a Heavy at Geelong last prep and showed nada. I can’t see him going well today.
Angola: Ran very well in the Mornington Cup and then won very easy last start. This is a massive step up in class today. Only start on Heavy was over 2000m and JUST lost at course to Secessio. Goes ok on ground.
It’s A Dundeel: Very distressing news during the week of him being lame in training. Not ideal and what you want to hear for a horse coming into a $1.5m race! Has been very poor first two runs this prep for mine. Has his opportunity in both races. Only run on heavy was 3.6L 4th to Pierro over 1400m which we know isn’t his distance.. he stormed home. After that he went on and won X2 Guineas and a Derby. Last prep his best run by a mile was the win over Atlantic Jewel by 0.1L on a slow track… but Atlantic Jewel’s run that day was no where near her best IMO. There was enough pace on in the race last start to suggest he should have won there for me, so i’m a little bit cautious today here. Probably the right price in the market.
Silent Achiever: Has been absolutely sensational this prep coming off some very strong runs last prep… but she has gone to another level completly. Perfect barrier today and has some very solid Slow track form. Looks the one to beat on paper.
Voleuse De Coeurs: The hardest runner in this field to do the form for. Has three wins on Slow and one on Heavy with some super big wins in her career over in the UK. Last start run when blocked for runs behind Fiorente at Flemington was very good over 2000m. The step up to 2400m certainly helps but she is also wanting further. I think she is a real winning chance.
Let’s MakeADeal: Untested on a wet track. Goes well on good or dead though. Best shown over longer distances and gets it today off a solid run last start. This is MUCH harder though.
Comments: Four winning chances for mine in Fiorente, It’s A Dundeel, Silent Achiever and Voleuse De Coeurs. The real issue here for mine is the lack of a pace maker. This won’t be a truely run 2400m and the sectionals SA has put down in her final 400m the last two starts is hard to ignore for this type of race.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: Backing Silent Achiever to win Big Bet. Fiorente to win smaller bet.
Rosehill Race 7
Solicit: Weighted to lose last start but was hitting the line well enough. Certainly has to improve today but much better in at the weights in this grade. Maps well.
Zanbagh: 1 run 1 win on Heavy and it was a big one.. but over a poor field. At least we know she handles the heavy. Very close 2nd to Kirramosa last prep over the 2500m and headed out Solicit in that run. Barrier a serious issue.
Marianne: Will she stay the distance today? Has been impressive all prep over 1200m up to the 1600m last start… This is a massive step up in distance today, worse off at the weights against others and to a distance that is unknown. Goes well on slow or heavy or anything you throw at her. Maps well from barrier but question on staying.
Rising Romance: Huge run last start behind Puccini and goes back to fillies class today. Three back run on slow in 3F-Gp2 company over this distance with 0.5kg more. Maps well from the barrier today and looks a winning home.
Miss Mossman: Worked her way through the grades and up in distance to 2400m last start was an impressive winner. Drop back to 2000m a key issue for me today and is 5 runs on slow or heavy for 0 wins and 1 place. Chance on dead but best shown on Good.
Suavito: Maiden race behind Solicit first ever run was a 0.75L defeat to Solicit. Other than that we have nothing to go off form wise on wet tracks. Her best runs have come on dead tracks but last start was impressive as well. She was hitting the line with momentum and had a lot up the sleeve it seemed, so the 2000m looks no trouble on last start run. Oliver keeps the ride today. Barrier an issue.
Define: Blocked for run when a good 2nd last start over the 1500m. Big step up to 2000m today and Newitt keeps the ride. Never run at this distance and this is a massive progressive step again. Never run on heavy or slow. Could be value.
All Cerise: Ran well enough last start but others appeal more here. Never seen over distance or on slow… didn’t place on heavy only start.
Interspersed: Last two runs have been very solid. Up to 2000m looks to suit today. Never seen a wet track the only issue but does look over the odds. Barrier 8 today… They need to sit further forward than 15/15 like last start.
Sensibility: Not going well enough to picture here on last two runs.
Artistic Lass: Two ‘ok’ runs this prep but not good enough to place here. Does have ok slow form.
Forever Loved: Ignore last start run and rate on previous runs. Never run on wet before and poor barrier… but will be pushing forward with a good jock onboard.
Lucia Valentina: Two runs this prep haven’t revealed much about her. I thought she finished off well first up over 1400m from the back at Warwick Farm and then last start I wasn’t very impressed… didn’t have to go too wide but did have to go around a horse in the straight, but last 200m was average, very average. Goes ok on slow but I can’t have on that run.
Casino Dancer: Big step up in grade here. Never won on slow or heavy. No thanks.
All My Loving: Maiden to BM-65 to this. No.
Missvonn: Actually ran home ok last start behind Zanbagh, wide barrier rules her out for me though.
Comments: Field size here today is a joke. 5-6 shouldn’t be running. I have 6 in my Quaddie but focusing on a key 4 runners. Solicit has to be shown respect, but I can’t have her on top.. but there are some saver offers around. Zanbagh stands out on last prep form especially the run behind Kirramosa… but the barrier today certainly makes it hard… they also haven’t been leading or going to the front this prep.. but we know she will handle the ground if it’s heavy or slow. Rising Romance has solid form lines. Barrier helps alot today as well… but another NZ runner first up in Aus and she isn’t their best which is a concern. Suavito is the other one I like. A little biased I know, but she is at her peak and if anyone can give her the required ride, it’s D Oliver.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9
Strategy: Zanbagh to win. Smaller bet Suavito.
Rosehill Race 8
Unencumbered: Failed due to track condition two back on slow and then last start clearly beaten by Ghibellines on a dead track. Hasn’t come back the same horse for mine and others appeal more especially with his barrier.
Jabali: Very poor run last start. Expected more from him. May have peaked in Blue Diamond and going backwards now. Barrier 1 helps. Oliver jumps off tells the story for me.
Ghibellines: Snowden was keen on this colt going here and disappointed two back… but redeemed last start at huge odds. Key is that he missed the start and was slowly away last start, if that happens here, his race is done.
Valentia: Last two runs have been solid and he continues to improve. Never been seen on slow or heavy but Dead form has been sound. Destroyed first up by Rubick is an issue. Others appeal more.
Cornrow: Blocked for runs last start and I can see why Oliver gets the ride on him today and takes it over Jabali. His run 1.8L behind Earthquake at Caulfield was very strong and last start he showed me he has a lot in the tank… he lost momentum for 100m and was still hitting the line super. Massive chance today if he handles the track.
Law: Unproven in this grade. Big Randwick win in 2YO class over some average horses. Last start on slow well and truly found out. Couldn’t have.
Modoc: Went ‘ok’ on heavy last start but better suited to Good. Others appeal more on form.
Risen From Doubt: Been backed in both starts this prep but just hasn’t trained on. Doesn’t look much of a chance on form.
Earthquake: BOOM. Huge win last start off what was a fairly average tempo compared to her last two wins.. Weighted well again as per normal. How does she map? From the barrier she will start well and go forward. I think she gets in and even if she doesn’t, she proved last two starts she is all quality. The massive issue no one knows is whether she will handle the ground having only raced on Good. The quality horses generally all do handle it.
Mossfun: Had every chance to beat Earthquake last start but didn’t have the sprint on a Good track. Won well enough first run on slow and then even better 2nd run.. but she won’t get such a cruisy speed today. Also alot more trouble getting in for a run. Very good horse and deserves to be backed in, but looks a touch of unders now for mine.
Oakleigh Girl: Did nothing wrong last prep and continued to run well. Not been seen since the MM 2YO 2nd. Never like a first up run into such an important race and the records speak against her here on that. Maps to be out the front. No wet track form to speak of.
Eloping: A lazy 6 length win at Bendigo last start over 1000m convinced them to send her up for this today. Always showed that she had a fair bit of class this prep and did run 2nd to Earthquake 3 back. Got the speed wrong two back at Flemington and didn’t really handle the straight IMO. Looks a chance on paper for mine if handles the going today and will be one they have to get past. Blowout chance.
Alpha Miss: On the day I thought her run was really good, but on reflection I liked More Radiant much more. Maps well from barrier today is the key for her chances.
Bring Me The Maid: I’ve reviewed her run last start and it was sensational on the Heavy track. She layed in and layed out and raced very very greenly, but Schofield gave her an amazing ride to still win. From barrier 5 today there is NO way they sit so far back today. She has to be midfield today at worst. She handles the ground is the key. Big player.
Memorial: Very poor run last start. Has excuses firs tup on slow. Can’t discount her today but from barrier very hard to see this coming off.
Believe Yourself: Beating Twirl is a good first up run form line.. but this is a massive step up on untested ground.
Scratch Me Lucky: Not on form no.
Comments: Probably about 8 horses who could win this but I have it down to 6 in my Quaddie and i’m happy with those numbers. If this was a good track today then Earthquake would be winning. It would be that simple, but we don’t have a good track. Ghibellines showed that he is the real deal last start and has to be respected. Mossfun has shown her best on slow tracks and even though I believe she is under the correct odds, you have to include her, she will run well. This brings me to my main four that I will be betting around. Eloping was huge last start. The price put up today is ridiclious considering she will go out the front so there shouldn’t be much issue of finding a slot. Cornrow showed me last start behind Ghibellines that he is peaking. Earthquake is the star in this race. She is 2 lengths the best horse here, but will she handle the ground. As i’m writing this I’m watching the radar and it ain’t looking pretty. I keep coming back to Bring Me The Maid. Her run was super dooper last start. She handles a slow and true heavy i’m sure of it and she maps beautifully.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 10, 12, 14
Strategy: If we have a heavy track, Bring Me The Maid to win. Lesser bet on Cornrow and Eloping. If we have a Slow track, include a medium sized bet on Earthquake.
Rosehill Race 9
Malavio: Two runs this prep have been average without impressing much. Up in weight here today to top weight doesn’t exactly help. Goes well at course and distance and is 2 wins 2 places on slow.
Strawberry Boy: 1 start 1 win on slow. Ran on much better than expected last start at Newcastle. Up 2kg today giving up some weight. Best runs i’ve seen from him are on Good tracks.. don’t dismiss but would like a slow track at worst and leaders running on well enough.
Weary: Ran well first up flashing home on a slow track. Last start ran home well also on Good but was no match for Messene. Up 3.5kg today is a little iffy at the weights, but I think he is a winning shot and barrier helps.
Centennial Park: Never won on heavy but goes ok on slow. Hasn’t won for a long time and I can’t see it here.
Diametric: Just ignore first up run when had run his race for getting onto the track. No wet track form is iffy but you would expect a GB horse to handle the going. Drop back to 1500m a massive concern for me.
Lucky Chappy: Group horse over in the US. Just ignore his only run here. Into the Waller hard and 2 wins at similar distances suggests he can run well and has been set for this. Hitting the line hard late.
Destiny’s Kiss: 4 wins from 7 on Heavy is a key stat for him. Last prep runs were all very good over much further distances. Probably best shown over 2000m past is his only issue but runs very well on hevy so has to be respected.
Wazn: Goes well on heavy and slow which is important. Has won first up and in class and at track and distance. Best we have seen from him is on further though.
I’m Imposing: Runs well first up. Never won at track. Goes well enough on wet tracks. Best shown 2000m+.
Danchai: 2nd up GB runner. Up to 1500m helps but still looking for further. Only run on heavy was a win, looks the import to follow here.
Rhythm To Spare: Disappointing first two runs this prep and no wet track form to follow on with. No.
Prince of Capers: Likes it wet but first up run was horrible. Goes much better 2nd up on form but hard to see the win here off last start.
Kaypers: The one I like at odds. His last three runs have been very very good. Step up to 1500m suits. Even ran 5 back 2.5L 2nd to Messene which is good form. Key is this horse is a mud lover and a slow or heavy track plays into his favour. Can go forward or back depending where the best ground is.
The Great Snowman: Lives up to his name, he likes it wet! First up this prep.. hasn’t really measured up in the past to group level but has to open class. Shown his best on slow but has run well on all track types.
Almighty Charge: Just missed two back on slow and then beaten well last start at Newcastle. Barrier helps but others look better in this open field.
Leebaz: Painless win at the farm last start. Much harder today. Can win but has to take a sit today for mine.
Desert Wizard: First up run was average at best for mine. No wet form.
Comments: Very keen on Kaypers here today. Ready for a breakthrough and the track should give him every chance today. Of course, watch to see how the track is playing for back-markers as I doubt he gets a forward run, midfield at best from the barrier. Heavy track predicted for this confidence, Slow goes back to 75%.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16
Strategy: Kaypers E/W
Fleminton Race 1
Soosa Rama: Stunning victory that 0.8L doesn’t justify on her record last start on a track that wasn’t suiting swoopers. Looks the bet of the day.
Vivi Veloce: Ran a nice 2.8L 7th when losing a plate last start but has to find lengths today.
Celeritas: Couldn’t win a lesser race at Geelong last start but did lose a plate. Hard to see here.
Duble Barrel Daisy: Looks the main threat today off 52kg. Very good win two back and then ran on well for 3rd last start.
Uraine: 2.8L win last start at Sandown and looked to do that fairly easy. Big step up in class today the only issue.
Leia: Not going well enough on previous two runs to win this today even at weights.
Pearly Whites: Down 6kg from two back run and 2kg better off against Duble Barrel Daisy. Barrier 2 suits and will take a sit and try hit the line hard.. or could try be near the lead. Better sitting and sprinting.
Star Beauty: Weighted nicely today compared to two back. Last start ran well but not good enough. Harder today.
River Delta: Won a slowly run maiden.. how the hell is she this short?
Best Yet To Come: Average horse on weights hard to have today.
Native Land: Run of race almost last start when blocked for runs and hit the line strong. Only fairly in at weights but is a threat.
Sweet Starlett: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Comments: Soosa Rama the bet of the day. I do have to have a little something on Native Land.. has the potential.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Soosa Rama to win. Smaller bet on Native Land.
Flemington Race 3
Gig: Up 3.5kg today after 1.8L 6th in a WFA-G1… back to a MB-84 race… wow. Off those ratings today, if there is enough speed on out the front, she goes very very close and deserves to be favourite.
Means A Lot: Thought her run last start had a lot of merit 4th to Hazard. Three back won well at course and distance in harder grade also. Claim is important today down to 57kg. Big player.
Kazanluk: Last prep showed she had something but never got a place. Goes well first up but better over further? Still ran well 2.8L 6th to Fire Up Fifi first up least prep. Weighted well.
Notice Received: Hard to have off first up run.
Rose Pattern: Not going well enough this prep from what we saw last start.
Genuine Spin: Not been seen for over a year. Was a similar grade to this back then and others with form around her have progressed well enough. Wouldn’t surprise a win today.
Red Fez: First up over 1100m was strong at the track.. up to 1400m a query for mine as she has never won at distance.
Aliyana: Disappointing run last start of last prep trying to go up in class. Back to 1400m first up.. never won at distance or first up but always runs well. Barrier an issue but will be hitting the line well.
Catered: Excuses every loss. Last two runs have been super and she is due to win. This weight today gives her every chance.
Pamukkale: Blowout chnace at odds based on previous prep runs and weight. Can go close if at best.
Spending: Can’t have her today or anymore. She is sacked. SHe doesn’t have the will to win and continues to go close without winning. No thanks.
Unscrupulous: Thought she had every chance and the race to suit last start but didn’t show much at all. Others preferred.
First Print: Continues to run well and keeps going close without breaking through. Not any better at weights today either.
Misscatelli: Last two runs have been good threatening for a win. Claim of Beriman the key today. Can run well on last start.
Crystalised: Never run swell first up in past and better over further.
Mitford Sister: Not in this class.
Comments: Gig looks way over the odds today and so does Catered and Means A Lot.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Gig to win. Smaller bets on Catered and Means A Lot
Flemington Race 4
The Bowler: Going well this prep. Peaked last start with a 1.3L 7th in Slow behind Written Up in a harder race. Only up 1kg today after claims. May be a hotly contested pace on out the front down the straight is an issue.
The Quarterback: Barrier doesn’t exactly give him many options which is the key issue today. Based on first three runs this prep, he handles the track at Flemington and he is the best horse in the race.
Churchill Dancer: Continues tor un well without winning. Can run well again today but thought needed to get a better weight here.
Consorting: 4L 2nd to Not Listenintome is good form and he ran home well last start at Bendigo but was just too far back. Has run 0.4L 3rd to Dothraki here last prep and is a massive chance.
Melrose Place: Poor first up down the straight but improved last start at MV. Step up in class and up 2kg as well after claims hurts. Win at track last prep after running far behind Anatina (like two back) was impressive. Speed will be on for her today.
Hard Stride: Ran well two back down the straight but didn’t get close. Improved last start and weighted well with Katie M onboard today. Chance.
Miracle To Me: Good record down the straight always going close. Weighted poorly today though I feel. Can still run a nice race.
Bedisguised: Good enough win last start from the back.. much harder today at weights. Can place. Sneaky chance if that to win.
Oliver: Has to be respected on last prep form and then first up run from the back. Handles Flemington.
Search Squad: Two in a row but both much easier than this. Hard to be with for me.
By The Grace: Showed a good amount of ability first prep. Is 1200m his best distance though and will he handle straight?
Washington Square: Handles the straight that is for sure. Did beat Lion of Belfort in a maiden but since hasn’t won with excuses. Last start was poor but surely can just ignore and rate on previous runs if you want?
Pilly’s Wish: Ran well last start behind Soosa Rama. Form looks ok but has to improve. Weighted well.
Vero Beach: 7L win but that was a poor race. Hard to have today even off that win unless Kav is in the yard.
Best Suggestion: Maiden only winner. Not winning this even off 51.5kg.
Docking: Maiden only winner. No thanks.
Comments: Low confidence race. Hard to choose any one on top clearly.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: The Quarterback E/W.
Flemington Race 5
Trust In A Gust: Swapping wins with Written Up and Worth a Ransom recently… weighted much better today but barrier sucks. Can win. Big chance.
Resistant: Ran home very well last start and could improve that again today.
Written Up: Good win last start and two previous runs were good also. Up to 1600m suits.
Worth A Ransom: Didn’t handle the slow. Continues to run well and every chance today but poorest weighted of the lot.
Self Sense: Average win first up but was still a win. Big improvement required.
Storm Approach: 1800m 3YO-LR win last prep over in Adelaide impressive. First up run over 1300m was eye-catching off the 60kg. Can go close here.
Arctic Song: Great run last start but poorly weighted here with Nisbet off. Hard to have at weights.
Inafrenzy: First up run was ok in much easier race then failed last start. Can’t have.
Red Spyder: Ran much better last start and enjoyed the wet track and up in distance. Up in weight today hurts big time compared to a few others is the issue for mine. Don’t fully dismiss.
Gambaccini: Hard to suggest he wins here.
Lord Da Vinci: Runs this prep have been ok but maiden only winner.
Megamind: Not going well enough for this on last few runs.
Boombuster: Had to go WAYYY country to get a maiden win. Not here.
Written: Progressed well through the grades and continued last start with an impressive win. Weighted much better than Arctic Song today also.
Devil Woman: Flashed home last start at Sandown and looks to be peaking. Weight will do her in today though.
Word of Mouth: Couldn’t win a maiden..
Believe Me: Couldn’t win a maiden..
Comments: Wide open race here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 15
Strategy: Storm Approach to win. Trust in a Gust lesser bet.
Flemington Race 6
Prairie Star: Very disappointing this prep and would take a miracle to turn around the form to win today at weights.
Zabeelionaire: Very average run first up. Showed nothing last prep. Not for me here.
Escado: Showed enough first up in Melbourne to tell me he is going well enough. Weighted nicely up to 2000m… can run a race.
Akzar: The one to beat clearly. Huge runs the last three in a row and continues to improve. Good off a slow or fast tempo and will be hard to beat at these weight scales.
Hvasstan: Very strong run just couldn’t beat home Commanding Times last start. Down 3kg today after claims but big step up in class.
Ancient King: Average run at best on the slow last start at Bendigo. Up to 2000m today suits, but should be been suited first up more than today I feel.
Whisper Downs: Just not going well this prep. Even at weights can’t have. Need to spell.
Keep De Rose: Not going well at all this prep.
Our Voodoo Prince: Big win first up in Aus over the 1600m. Suited by step up to 2000m today also. Will be a fair way back is the only issue.
Trade Commissioner: Average at best first up. Hard to have off that run today.
Supremacy: Shown not much last prep and first up run was poor. Not this class.
Wells: Jumper. Onto jumps not this.
Tunes: Ran ok last start but not well enough to suggest he can progress to this!
Godspiel: Continues to run well but won’t go close in this level of race today.
Mightiest: Impressed me last start with his run. Weighted nicely today.
Duplicity Jones: Down to 52kg today, he has to be respected on his last three runs. Chance.
Comments: Akzar the best horse in this race by a mile and is over the odds.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 5, 12, 19, 20
Strategy: Akzar to win
Flemington Race 7
Shamal Wind: Weighted super today off 56.5kg after claims. Loves the track and loves the straight. Weighted to win and very hard to beat.
Decircles: Goes super down the straight and loves Flemington. 1400m back to 1000m interesting.. never won at distance but always goes close. Main danger to fav.
Stratcombe: First up run showed nothing. Not in this.
Pocket Rockets: Ran well enough two back down the straight and then last start was average at Caulfield. Two months off between runs. If finds best can run nicely.
Henwood: Last prep form won’t measure up in this class of race. Down to 52.5kg but that is fair. Never won at track but goes well at distance.
Duke of Cornwall: Darwin runner back down here. When was in Adelaide was a lesser class horse. Not for me.
Living on a Prayer: Been battling in the country last prep. Hard to see measuring up in town even off 51kg.
Fab Fevola: Last two runs have been horrible. Back to the straight but hard to see here.
My Survivor: Not going well enough on previous runs to consider a winning chance. Could place.
Menage A Charge: Last start finished off really well. Weighted only fairly at best today for mine.
Comments: Hard to go past Shamal Wind at the price. Massive overs.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 5
Strategy: Shamal Wind to win. Saver Pocket Rockets.
Flemington Race 8
Dany The Fox: Ran very well to win last start over the 1400m, but the time was fairly slow out front so deserved to win. Up 0.5kg today but should be fitter for that run also. Needs to improve again today though for mine and a lot of speed in race.
Smokin’ Joey: Very poor first two runs this prep but turn around in form after a month off wouldn’t shock at all right? Good track, in with chance.
Adamantium: Not sure what the hell they are doing with one of my favourites. Never won on 1400 previously and should be in a 1000-1200m race today. Up in weight and this is a contest with a lot of speed already.
Cosmic Causeway: Ran some good races last prep including a close 5th here from the back. Never won first up previously.
Count of Limonade: Trialed very well coming over from Ireland… best has been seen at 1600-2000m but i don’t see why he can’t win today at the weights. Rawiller takes the ride. Big chance. The class.
Shewan: Not seen him for over a year! Was promising last prep but long layoff hard to see a first up win on a distance that isn’t his best. Wants further.
Flying Hussler: Hasn’t returned with any form this prep. hard to be anywhere near.
Spacecraft: Lost plate, ran wide and was just poor first up. Down to 53kg today helps but has to be ridden to lead to have a chance.
Bec Said No Credit: I like this mare. She is quality. Her firs tup run was against her normal pattern and you have to believe they decide to run midfield today. Can run well off that run but has to improve.
Lightenuff: Unlucky 2nd last start when ran very well behind Laohu. Down 3kg today, not the worst and could run close.
Chile Express: Not going well enough this prep even at the weights for me to suggest he can win this.
Hosting: Probably should have won last start. Much better weighted today. Can win.
Red Inca: Not shown anything this prep.
Comments: Not very keen to bet here. I think Count of Limonade is probably the right price and not much value on offer.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 12, 15
Strategy: Count of Limonade to win.
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