Horse Racing Form for Rosehill and Moonee Valley Saturday 6 April 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for Rosehill and Moonee Valley! We are blessed with so many group races, but more importantly, great interstate cards. We had one of our most profitable Saturday’s on record last week with the best bets with a $10 and $12 winner. That will be hard to repeat and the Monday/Wednesday write-ups performed poorly, so we hope to improve on those today as well. There are MANY great promotions on offer today so look to use the best available for each race! As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.

Promotions

Betfair are offering $5.50 odds for first 500 mobile users to stake a maximum of $25 on Fiveandahalfstar to win the BMW (from 9am). Also be in the running for $12,000 in prizes with their Tipping competition. They are also offering their normal Saturday promotions such as the Quaddie first leg refund at Rosehill (lose in first leg but back last 3, money back up to $100), 3 Times a Charm (back 3 winners at Rosehill in the day using the Tote Extra product $25 minimum stake for $100 bonus) and Done in a Close one (0.4L or less refund if 2nd) on Tote Extra ($50 max). View the promotions here.

Sportsbet are refunding all win bets up to $100 in the Golden Slipper and BMW if your horse runs 2nd. View the promotions here.
Centrebet are refunding bets up to $100 all day if your horse runs second to the favourite. View the promotions here.
Luxbet are awarding members who back a horse that wins in a Group One at Rosehill ($1.50 or great odds) with a matched Bonus Bet equal to their stake up to $100. View the promotions here.

Best Bet Sydney
Rosehill Race 5 Sangster

Best Bet Melbourne
Moonee Valley Race 2 Lucky Angel

Next Best Sydney
Rosehill Race 9 Ladys Angel

Next Best Melbourne
Moonee Valley Race 5 Jolie Blonde

Best Value Sydney
Rosehill Race 3 King Of Olympia

Best Value Melbourne
Moonee Valley Race 8 Le Bonsir

For those wondering, I only noticed after doing my form and best bets that three of the four best were Angels! Angelic Light didn’t make the list though haha. For those who like a bit of fun, if you want to use your imagination, there is a ‘Royal’ quaddie at MV with Rock Princess into ‘Vittoria’ (Queen?) into Its Prince into King Cotton!

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Rosehill Race 1
Lights of Heaven: Ran well enough last start over 1600m which suggests will be ready to step up here to 2000m. Won 1 placed 1 on heavy so looks suited. No pace in this race so is expected to get an easy run out front and not be run down.
Said Com: Never placed on heavy (both runs this prep), but goes well on slow. Not going well enough this prep it seems? Weighted ok today.
Single: Never placed on slow or heavy but will appreciate the distance today. Isn’t going well enough from last two starts for mine though.
Court Connection: Good win in Canberra and ran well enough before that on heavy at Rosehill. Weighted nicely once again and could surprise.
Lunayir: Ran well enough behind Julienas 2nd last start at course, but failed first up here on Heavy. Needs to improve today on that form.
Strike The Stars: Only won once every and that was on good. Not the best form on Heavy and not going well enough.
Hoylonny: Never won on heavy, but ran well enough two back behind Bello. Needs to find a few more lengths today though.
Why Not: Not good enough on last start run.
Hula Lua: Progressive type who is up against it class wise today. To give you an idea, Princess Rock who she beat by 0.1L two back is $41 in a race at Moonee Valley. Hard to see the progression to beat these.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: All depends on the price we get on the day. If Lights of Heaven is around $3.70 or above, then I will be betting LOH and a smaller bet Court Connection. If lower than that price, Court Connection is the bet with a saver on LOH.

Rosehill Race 2
Fuerza: Ran good enough last two runs, but this looks a little hard off the weights.
Gracious Prospect: Ran well enough last start at Moonee Valley and previously on slow at Tasmania, but hard to see the win here.
Hydro: Ran well enough first up to suggest can go well today.
Ideal Guide: No good on Slow last prep. Needs to find a few more lengths.
Sanosuke: Ran well enough last start. Hard to improve today from barrier.
Diva Dee: Hasn’t progressed far enough this prep.
Champollion: Not good enough.
Rightoncue: Not up to this.
Star Wars: Not enough force to win this.
Aspen: Very strong win last start in a VERY good time. Looks to have improved and is a BIG chance.
Command More: Can go close with that last start run behind Aspen on the board.
Miss Sunset: Hard to tell how she will run today. Should run ok.
Baltic Warrior: Can’t see a win here.
Downdstown Charlie: Ran well enough on Heavy first up this prep but couldn’t win a maiden.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Keen on Aspen here at the E/W. Needs luck but is the one to beat.

Rosehill Race 3
Proverb: Ran very well last start but geez he is short today. Runs ok on wet.
Philippi: Ran well enough last start but I would have wanted him to win  that. Two horses ran better there. Should handle the ground.
Solemn: Not good enough for this on previous three runs.
Rowie: Not good enough on this preps runs.
Knockabout: Decent form lines but needs to find 2-3L.
Laser Flash: Ran well enough last start but this is MUCH harder.
Hippopus: Keeps running well and enjoys rain.
Twisted Emotions: Ignore last start if you think he has a chance.
Gerontius: Not good enough for this.
Indianapolis: Hard to see winning on first two runs.
Perfect Weapon: Not good enough.
De La Dilo: Ran well enough last start. Does go fine on heavy also.
King Of Olympia: Never run on heavy but last prep ran 1.8L behind Its A DunDeel. Has ability.
High Shot: Only ever ran well once in a Maiden (was an impressive run) on Slow. I can’t touch today.
Air Striker: Ran well enough last start but this is a step up.
Sir Denzel: Only won a maiden.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Gai has King Of Olympia set here and showed one of best runs last prep on wet. Will be going towards the front and will REALLY enjoy the distance. Huge odds for an E/W chance!

Rosehill Race 4
Driefontein: Another horse with form lines around the Red Tracer race that people are using as a strong form line today. Very close behind Dear Demi two back and then close again to Appearance and Red Tracer. Big issues and hard to think she can stay the distance, but does go ok on heavy. Somehow 2kg worse off today against Norzita for 1.6L behind.
Dear Demi: Very poor last start but will certainly enjoy the up in distance to 2000m. Won’t get trapped or anything today at least. Needs a perfect run. Up in weight. Has won on heavy.
Norzita: Weighted well today but has not been progressed to this distance before. Form lines and breeding suggest she is crying out for the distance, but will she enjoy a heavy track? Hard to tell! She should.
Habibi: Very strong form lines over in New Zealand and goes well on Slow. Big chance, don’t dismiss.
Longport: Hard to see her winning this on previous three runs. Been average.
Alzora: Keeps putting in solid runs but last start wasn’t good enough. Better weighted today against You’re SO Good. Has placed 2/2 on heavy.
You’re So Good: Never gone on Heavy or Slow previously but expect she can handle it. Looks to be wanting further but will have to work hard to get a good position today.
Cameo: Huge run last start but this seems much harder.
Summerbliss: Disappointing first and second up but should be running on well at this distance. Hard to back on those runs.
Campania: Can’t win on last two runs.
Hoybell: Unplaced on Heavy four runs back and average last start.
Gondokoro: Couldn’t win a maiden.
She’s A Girl: Likes the distance but outclassed here.
Purple Muse: Hard to see here.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Norzita is the class here while Alzora gets a VERY solid run and is weighted to win with big form lines.

Rosehill Race 5
Foreteller: Huge win last start chasing down Fiveandahalfstar late. Form lines around him have been strong with Budriguez winning in Melbourne for us at big odds. It all comes down to how the race is run. I don’t expect Bowman to go as fast as Robl did last start and foreteller doesn’t get as good a run as last start. Will be pushing very wide. Still in with a great chance. No real issues with wet tracks for him.
Mawingo: never won from 2 starts on heavy but ran ok last start. Has to find MUCH MORE today.. should fit further forward which could help? Yet to overcome Foreteller this prep.
Niwot: 2 from 2 on heavy and up to a distance that suits. Ran 4th behind Niwot in Canberra which was a solid run but didn’t find enough last start on Good. May swim very well today.
Kelinni: Poor run last start as 2nd favourite. Never won on anything but dead or good so hard to see the win today off those stats. 5 wins 1 place from 6 at distance though… those are some fine stats and 4th in Melbourne Cup.
Maluckyday: Never run on heavy and only ever placed on Slow. Run last start was over-hyped. Wasn’t as good as everyone is saying, Sangsters was much better.
Gatewood: Pushed forward and given no chance from the run he got IMO. Could run better today but didn’t handle Heavy first up.
Kutchinsky: Good enough run last start behind Norsqui and good win at Flemington before that… but very hard at the weights up in class.
Sangster: Slowly away last start was what cost him. Also hit his head by all reports. Will ENJOY the extra 400m today, position further forward and eat up the swamp ground. HUGE chance and over the odds.
Le Roi: Will handle the ground if you jduge off last prep. 2/2 on Slow. Should be slightly further forward today than first up. Will the horse measure up? Time will tell.
Hathras: Beat nothing last start and was good in much easier company two back on heavy, but up to 58kg today is certainly up against it.
Silent Achiever: 2/2 on Slow but never run on Heavy. Suspect no drama with ground but has to show much more today.
Fiveandahalfstar: A massive questionmark in this race, Never placed on Slow or heavy from 3 starts! In career best form now though and should be given a better ride. Would prefer something else to lead out at a furious pace. Looks vulnerable today!
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Forgive Sangster last start and back again. Saver Fiveandahalfstar with the Betfair offer at 9am on mobile for $5.50 odds.

Rosehill Race 6
More Joyous: 11 wins from 15 at track, 12 wins from 15 at distance (instantly no other places.. wins or loses). 7 from 8 second up. 0 wins 0 places from 2 on heavy! Will she be scratched? An absolute superstar and up to a distance that suits more. Will she get trapped on the bad ground from barrier 1? I think so! Under the odds today.
Secret Admirer: Ran well enough last start but no slow or heavy form to really speak of. Could run well.
Appearance: Big win last start but up against it on weights alone today. Does go well on heavy.
Red Tracer: 5 from 5 on heavy but this is MUCH HARDER than the two back heavy win (only just got in). 0.2L or less within winning the last 3 runs. Gets a hard run from the barrier though.
Streama: Positioned poorly last start but ran well enough. Goes ok on heavy, but not good enough for this IMO.
Mid Summer Music: 3/4 on slow, 2/3 on heavy. Quality horse, but probably not this quality.
Spirit Song: Huge run and win last start at Moonee Valley. Peaked last prep fourth up and the run before that as well. This is fourth up and looks set. Only (major) issue is will she handle the wet? If they think she will handle it, she will run.
Pear Tart: Not going well enough this prep even though is 2 wins from 2 on heavy and 1 from 1 on slow, just can’t get close.
There’s Only One: Couldn’t get a run last start at Moonee Valley. Is 2/2 on Slow and has a good rating in this class. Rates well on three back run?
Shannara: Ran well enough last start but don’t see winning this on heavy.
Cathay Lady: A horse I have a lot of time for. Where will she position from barrier 3? If she jumps well could Shinn try take up the running? Was very good first up when you consider had never won first up, was over a distance that isn’t her best and was really going or this race. Beat home Havana Rey and Babel last prep which when you consider both those horses have gone on to win VERY good races this prep, you can’t count her out.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: More Joyous is exposed here in my opinion and i’m happy to have a go around her with the other 3 quaddie picks. If Spirit Song runs, She is my top pick, but word is she might not be running.

Rosehill Race 7
Criterion: Ran well enough last start to suggest he is a chance today. Will get a nice run from barrier 2. Don’t dismiss.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: In very well today. 0.2L behind Criterion last start. Ran on VERY well in the Blue Diamond behind Miracles of Life also. Will be flashing home late. Big chance from the back.
Kuroshio: Injured last start so you can forgive that run if you want, but doesn’t look good enough and barrier 16 too hard.
Sidestep: Good win last start and speed maps well enough, but looks under the odds for mine.
I’m All The Talk: Going forward from an outside gate. was really good last start but didn’t measure up on Heavy two back.
Whittington: Strong last start win but doesn’t look the one to beat for mine. Others with better sectionals.
Dothraki: Not good enough on previous run.
Charlie Boy: Hard to have him on last start run but may be better coming from further back.
Va Pensiero: Needs to sit further forward today than speed map suggests to have a chance. Last start run was worst of the lot.
Windjammer: Non-winner. Will be coming late but no thanks.
Overreach: Class is class. Barrier 1, as long as doesn’t miss the start, deserves to be favourite. Times are strong enough and has a huge final sectional. At least saver.
Rudd Awakening: Going great guns over in New Zealand winning the last two races in VERY fast times from the front by 3L and 2.3L. MAJOR issue is outside barrier BUT Williams knows how to jump them to the front from here. CAN WIN.
Sweet Idea: The horse that has been best backed to win today. Good win last start on Heavy but has to improve again today. Speed maps well.
Villa Verde: Just ignore last start, will be better off taking a sit behind others and will be hitting the line hard. Good horse.
Guelph: Ran well enough up in Sydney before being outclassed in the Diamond. Win wouldn’t shock on the wraps of this horse who may eat up the Heavy ground. Don’t dismiss.
Romantic Moon: Should run well enough but hard to see the win.
Havana: Very progressive but doesn’t look progressive enough for this.
Il Cavallo: No idea how to place him.. but if he gets in, will be well backed on that first up nearly 4L win over 900m!
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15
Strategy: Not 100% keen to get any more involved than I am. I have long shot plays on all of my selected horses plus one or two others.

Rosehill Race 8
Shoot Out: Never placed from 2 starts on Heavy but goes well on Slow. Better first up than second up. Never won from 5 starts at track! Happy to be against.
Manighar: Won 2 from 3 at track but was average at best last start. Lame after race though. Hard to see the improvement on first two runs. Never won on heavy.
King Mufhasa: Never won on heavy and worst results are on wet tracks. Never won from 4 tries at track either. Hard to see today off recent runs in Aus.
Reliable Man: Will he live up to his name? NEVER run at this distance and best runs over further. Never run on Heavy but 1 win 1 place from 2 at slow. Looking for further.
Veyron: Decent form over in New Zealand and has won 1/1 on heavy and 4 from 5 on slow. Won 10 from 16 at distance but first time at this track. Positions forward to win today.
Danleigh: Never won from 7 on heavy, but last two runs have been super. Is he ready to improve onwards again today? Will have to take a split on the rail which will be the worst ground?
Happy Trails: Slowly away and sat last. Was average first up but this is his distance. Runs well on slow/heavy but not his best surface. Hard gate to get a good position from but will be hitting the line hard.
Laser Hawk: Never won on slow or heavy but is a super horse. Positions well enough today but has to do a fair bit of work early.
Solzhenitsyn: Never placed on slow and never run on heavy. Do they scratch him? Hard to see how he will run but have to expect will run well? Was HUGE late last start but doesn’t get any easier run today from gate. Still a chance.
Fontelina: Not good enough on all form lines to win this.
Pierro: Big win last start but was exposed on Heavy the run before only just holding on by 0.1L. Rebel Dane will be hitting the line HARD behind him. Will he get caught 3 wide early???
Rebel Dane: Expect the swoopers to have every chance today. He equalled up to Pierro last start on Heavy and the extra 100m may be the different, plus he may get a better run? Williams goes on for the ride and he should be hitting the line the hardest. Expect more pace in the race today. Big chance.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie leg three: 5, 7, 9, 11, 12
Strategy: Happy to take Rebel Dane AGAIN today. Ignore last start and look to two runs back. Gets this race run more to suit. Solzhenitsyn a big chance also on last start run. Pierro is the best in the race, we know it, but Rebel Dane on Heavy isn’t far off.

Rosehill Race 9
Rolling Pin: Has won and placed twice in 3 first up runs. Been off a fair while now after Spring. Last prep won a group 3 and Group 2 over 1500m and a 3rd in Group 1. Is 1200m too short? Has won twice previously. Can win if produces best run.
Happy Zero: Showed some form last prep but needs further.
Skytrain: 5 wins from 10 on heavy including last start 1.8L win over Streama (who wouldn’t win this). Form lines are solid and has a big chance today. Issue is how far he gets back.
Tiger Tees: Runs well on slowy and heavy but first two runs were NOT good enough to win this.
Hot Snitzel: Ignore first up when lost plate and was slowly away. Has ability to go close today, but may not appreciate the heavy track.
Rarefied: Hasn’t raced in a LONG time but the form from when he was running is brilliant. Last prep ran x4 2nds all close behind horses such as Sister Madly and Ortensia! Don’t Discount.
Second Effort: Was never winning first up on the good ground. Has a great record at the distance but more importantly, has very strong form lines on Heavy with 3 from 4 and 4/4 on Slow. Only issue is getting in for a good run from so far out.
See The World: Dominant win second up but what did he beat? Has good slow form but only average on heavy. Needs to find much more.
Smokin’ Joey: Never won or placed on slow or heavy and looks best suited to good tracks this horse. The first up run was massive so you will want to back him on a good track next start.
Star of Octagonal: Ran well enough last prep placing in two group races, not the best heavy or first up form and never won at distance.
Wild and Proud: Last win was in 2012 on Heavy at this race over 200m extra beating a decent horse called Manawanui raspberry. Since then has gone backwards I reckon. Never won first up.
Ladys Angel: If you think Red Tracer can beat More Joyous then Lady’s Angel HAS TO be a huge chance today in this race off run two runs back. Was very good last start as well on good track.
Say No More: New runner for Waller. Weighted nicely but I couldn’t back on previous form here in this race.
Aeronautical: Never placed from 6 attempts on slow or heavy. Huge last two starts but not here.
Welkom Gold: Can’t see the progression and not the best wet track runner.
Hidden Warrior: No form on wet. This is a major step up, not good enough.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 4, 7, 8, 9, 13
Strategy: Lady’s Angel and Second Effort at the key runners on wet while Skytrain has massive form lines coming into this. Lady’s Angel weighted to win today.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Nothing sticks out from going over the form. I don’t want to lead you into anything in this race. There are 17 better races to choose from in Melbourne and Sydney.

Moonee Valley Race 2
Lucky Angel: From Barrier 4, speed maps are suggesting she can get a REALLY good run more forward today than previous attempts at the valley. Down to 55kg after claim, back from a Group 3 2nd and 4th at similar distances. Just an insane price and SHOULD be winning!
Oriental Ruby: Great run home last start but will get trapped rails or have to come around the whole field you suspect (unless ridden for luck). Still a great chance. Quality mare.
Blue Ribbon: Ran well enough 2nd to Vittoria having everything in her favour last start. Just keeps running well and is weighted nicely today.
Friday Hussy: Poorly weighted today compared to Blue Ribbon here. Has a chance, but up against it here.
Thorn Star: Went more forward last start as expected and got the win. This looks much harder but has every chance.
Spelldancer: Disappointing last start not staying out the trip. If the rail is true today, will be very hard to run down.
Crimson Lady: hard to see a win here today but has ability.
Mumbeilly: This is significantly harder today.
Fits and Starts: Can’t see the progression.
Applebottom: No Thanks.
Confidence: 80%
Strategy: Lucky Angel is huge overs here. Back with confidence!

Moonee Valley Race 3
Road Trippin’: Good win last start on Heavy and before that at Morphetville. Harshly weighted for mine today though.
Floatmyboat: The runner to be on here. Great runs last two starts. Only query is how far back he will be. Newitt to give a dream ride?
Harvey’s True Heart: Form is ok but needs to improve a length today.
Hunger: Goes forward but couldn’t run out first up well enough.
Excited Spirit: Good win in much easier company last start. Can run well.
Ekibuuka: Not in this class.
Gold Medals: Hard to see the progression on first two runs this prep but last prep showed enough.
Magnapal: Going to be hard from the barrier but if produces two back run, can go close.
Prisoner Of War: Not in this class this prep.
Muertos: Trained on well but is he the real deal? Doubt it.
Kuakata: No thanks.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Floatmyboat the one here.

Moonee Valley Race 4
Elite Elle: Up 3kg today after claims after being beaten by an improving horse. I don’t like her heading up forward but so much quality scratched out of this. Has the chances
Sumakaray: Gone backwards the last two runs… seems to need a spell for mine.
Benenden: Very good win last two starts at Flemington and Caulfield. May get caught too far back today on the rail.. but can push up.
Red Fez: Ran close behind Norzita last start. You have to think that form is very good to go off of. Only issue is how far back she gets.
Big Chill: Good run last start and down 2kg but needs to find a length or two more.
Purple Storm: Ran well enough last prep to suggest can go well first up today.
Iriomote: Not sure she is up to this.
Easy To Look At: Big win two back at track but found out last start.
Panzanella: Very strong run last start when losing a plate. Don’t simply dismiss.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lost our best bet of the day from this race. Not confident enough to bet anymore, but these two runners look the key.

Moonee Valley Race 5
Jolie Blonde: Weighted very well today off 57kg after claims. Went very close last start at Flemington and form lines of who she beat the previous two races is VERY strong.
Honey Flower: Impressive run from the back last start. Down in class but up 4.5kg today which will make it very hard when you consider where she is expected to sit. Still, a very big chance.
Rock Princess: Not the best first up records, but she was very good last start (at bigger distances). Hard to have.
Zippa The Rippa: Good win at Morphetville then failed last start. Hard to have on recent form for mine… but could shock with a win.
City Of Song: Will have to pass a wall of horses but off 52kg has every chance. Could be peaking.
Chinzia: Ignore last start and look to two back behind Lady Melksham over 950m. Has every chance today.. but may not be suited by 1200m?
Elfina: Progressed well last prep. Has some decent times and could be something special.
Our Emily Mia: Times are sound and off 51kg looks a very big chance today.
Valrouz: Much harder class today but will have her chance.
Cherish Harmony: Hard to see the progression to a win today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 7, 11
Strategy: Jolie Blonde back to 1200m and Moonee Valley looks suited at the weights. Honey Flower the main danger also worth a bet while Our Emily Mia could be something special so is worth a saver.

Moonee Valley Race 6
Macedonian: Ran well enough last two starts to suggest can run well again today. Still needs to find a few more lengths off 58kg.
I’m Jake: Huge run last start when slowly away and will position forward today and control the pace. Goes well at track and at distance. Big chance.
Montgomery: Last start run had merit but previous runs were average. May be wanting a wet track? Up 2kg today.
Gotta Keep Cool: Not good enough this prep.
Thubiaan: This looks harder today with the step back to 2500m.
Stoneblack: Not going well enough this prep IMO but up to 2500m is the test.
Unchain My heart: Needs to find 2-3L today on previous runs. Weighted ok, but maps poorly.
Vittoria: Beriman will have to do a bit of work early to get into a good position from outside, but off 51kg is weighted to win today. Has been SMASHED in betting.
Fabriano: Don’t dismiss him! Very strong run last start on Heavy, and previous two runs had a lot of merit. Off 52kg can run well.
Major Coup: Good win at track last start in easier company. This is much harder.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 10, 12, 13
Strategy: I took the early money on Vittoria so got in at the good price. I am also happy to get some cash on I’m Jake here.

Moonee Valley Race 7
Black and Bent: Hurdles is the goal not a 1500m race at MV.
Finiguerra: Form lines from last prep are very strong. Big issue is that he is 0 from 4 first up and 0 from 2 at distance. May be wanting further, but should still run very well. Maps ok.
Over Quota: Just not the same Over Quota as last prep. Hard to see the win today even if gets the perfect box seat run.
Secret Liaison: Too far back last start. Weighted better today but will have a harder run. Still, a very good chance.
Oregon Spirit: Maps better today than last start at Bendigo. Still, needs a fair bit of luck and only down 0.5kg up in class.
The Wingman: On speed map will find it hard to win today. keeps running well.
Westsouthwest: Not returned well enough this prep. Need a miracle to pull this off.
Its Prince: Not good enough.
Great Player: Looking for a wet track.
Muhaajir: Maps to win today. Can either go forward and lead or take a sit outside the leader or 1 out 1 back. Times are sounds and weighted to win.
Verification: Weighted as well as Muhaajir but on speed map will have to go through a wall of horses.
Captura: Horse lines not the best in this race. Can’t have.
Full Hand: Can’t win this on previous two starts.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: All about progression this race. Will Muhaajir make the jump? Probably but the price looks a little under what I would want to back.

Moonee Valley Race 8
Perturbo: Very good runs his last two starts. Will need luck from this far back today but has every chance if ridden for luck!
Zedi Knight: Won here two back and then went close last start. Will he have the speed to jump and lead today? He may and would be hard to beat if that happens with Katie on board off 56kg.
Go The Knuckle: How many chances do you have to give this horse? Not for me today. Is a non-winner.
Speediness: First up run had A LOT of merit but this looks to be a hard task from so far back. Still a chance!
Club Command: Will be pushing forward today and you would expect the pace will be a little harder today. Never won 2nd up or ran at track previously. Meech given ride is a good sign. Goes well at distance but may be better suited to 1400m?
Vatican: Just keeps running well here. Last start unlucky not to win over 950m. Never won over 1200m ever!
Hollowlea: Hasn’t won since 2010 behind a horse I liked called Run For Levi at course but over 1600m. Hard to see a win here.
King Cotton: Equal weight agian today against Vatican. Will find it hard to position well enough again today and up to 1200m may not suit. Still a chance.
McClintock: You know he is a horse we love to follow. First and second up last prep went painfully close! He is SUITED to this track and off 51kg should be winning if gets a good jump.
Le Bonsir: Poor run last start (didn’t like the dead track?) Back on Good today? Off 52kg.. everything looks set for a win. Rates to win here and is overs.
It Is Written: Just keeps running well without winning and is poorly weighted against others who beat last few starts. Still a massive chance.
Youbolt: Hard to have on last start.
Rusambo: Form behind Lonhspresso has worked out well. Don’t Dismiss.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 15
Strategy: The times on Le Bonsir are VERY sound and McClintock as long as gets across is going to be very hard to pass. Both are solid betting options.

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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