Horse Racing Form for Rosehill, Caulfield and Oakbank Saturday 30 March 2013

Welcome to The Profits form for Rosehill, Caulfield and Oakbank! There are some very strong fields on offer today. Most of the races are very competitive, so don’t go crazy. Pick a few races you think you have an edge in today and bet hard into those. I’m not a huge fan of place only bets, but there are two or three races today that stick out where a runner is $3.80-$6 and may find one or two too good, but should be taking that place more than their odds suggest. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting.

Best Bet
Rosehill Race 5 Crafty Irna

Next Best
Rosehill Race 1 Ichihara to place

Melbourne Best
Caulfield Race 6 Budriguez

Adelaide Best
Oakbank Race 7 Avoid Lightning

Best Value
Rosehill Race 8 Havana Rey

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Caulfield Race 1
King Diamond: Top weight. Never won first up. Won 3 times at distance previously. Was HUGE last prep so win wouldn’t shock.
Gold Sand: Improved when running in Morphetville but that was in a lesser class race. Off 55.5kg after claim and has a chance.
Prizum: Positioned well last start at Bendigo. Only up 0.5kg today after claim and if you believe Jet Away is a superstar, then he will go very close here.
Cosmic Causeway: Keeps running well. Up 2.5kg today on previous runs but in lesser company. Probably the one to beat. Never missed a place from 4 starts here.
Goldoni: Ran well enough first up but needs to show much more. Going up in the distances and is probably looking for 2000m+.
Anudjawun: Hard to have in this class of race today. Just keeps not winning and has struggled to place recently also.
Muirfield: Was sent off over the longer distances last prep. One could suggest that he is better off over 1600m-2000m. Never won from 10 attempts in class but does have a chance off weights.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Both runners would prefer a dead track and if we had that for race one, then I can’t see these two not finishing one and two. If the track comes up good (which is rare for R1 Caulfield), then there is no bet here.

Caulfield Race 2
Hard Stride: Ran well enough first up. Up 2kg today but in with a chance.
Trust In A Gust: Same form lines as Hard Stride. Hard to separate them.
Self Sense: Ran second to Diamond Glow who has a 2nd to Miracles of Life on record. From barrier 1 speed maps well enough and might be value.
Star Realm: Missed start and won a maiden in very slow time. Very questionable to measure up here.
Weinholt: Huge win in maiden company first up, but then something looks to go wrong last start? In with a big chance if you forgive that run.
Churchill Dancer: Blocked for run last start and could find better today.
Mio Dio: Probably not classy enough for this.
Rocknest: Half-sister average at best. But they seem confident bringing him here. Won’t dismiss.
Sonntag: Didn’t look good enough trialing.
Australia Day: Not sure she is good enough on last start run.
Storm Approach: Down from Sydney. Didn’t look good enough first run to win this.
Kievann: Hard to have.
Fantome Gris: Wasn’t the worst run last start but needs to improve 2-3L today.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Not much confidence here at all. If anything, Self Sense to place looks the right odds.

Caulfield Race 3
Family Crest: Disappointing last start at Moonee Valley when ridden against normal trends. Off 57kg today after claim, has a win in her but needs to show much more. Barrier an issue.
Rose Pattern: Brave to the line last start at Flemington but is probably better suited here back to 1400m. Only issue is 58kg which is far above what she has been winning with this prep.
Manhattan Maid: Not sure she has returned in good enough form to win this. Couldn’t win an Echuca race. 59kg hard.
Biancon Rose: Hard to see the progression here.
Dowager Queen: Hasn’t won since 2011 over in NZ and is looking for further. May also need it wet.
Sweet Ella: Ran on very well in lesser company behind Ninth Legion last start but harshly treated by weights today. Still a chance.
Minnie Downs: Progressive this prep and finally broke through last start. Only up 1kg today and looks value.
Aneto: 2kg better off against Minnie Downs today and should position slightly further forward today.
Captivating Lady: Unlucky last two starts and will run on well again today. Will get a very solid run but big questions on if she is up to this.
Plucky Belle: Hard to see the progression today off last two runs, but did win 3rd run in last prep so never know!
Essence: Speed mapped to lead this up, average win last start in Adelaide and up in class here. Not for me.
Orlando’s Bridge: Decent enough win last start but hasn’t measured up to this class previously.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: Rose Pattern has the ability go win this one even off the weights while Minnie Downs will be hitting the line very hard.

Caulfield Race 4
Bradman: Big win last start. Can go forward or back. How he was $51 last start I will never know. After all, 3L behind Fiveandahalfstar last prep isn’t bad form lines. Up in weight today to 58.5kg after claims. Still a big chance here.
Maybe Discreet: Disappointing first up but this looks much easier. Will appreciate the extra distance up to 1400m and from barrier 2 has a chance. Issue is the 60kg.
Pronto Pronto: Ran very well last start behind Bradman when slowly away and blocked for runs. Don’t dismiss.
Crystal Web: Was huge last start at Moonee Valley. Didn’t expect he could get that close from the back of the field. May position slightly further forward today, but either way, will be hitting the line hard.
Last Day: Ran ok last start but not good enough. Looks unders here.
Such Hope: Won 3 of last four and up in class today. Has the ability to go very close.
Transonic: Disappointing first up but not suited to this distance. Needs further and more runs.
Floatmyboat: Meets Bradman 5.5kg better off today. Does speed map average at best but is weighted to go close.
Forget: Ran very well two back behind Philippi then last start went amiss. Weight may have played a part and first up doesn’t go well. Could go very close today at the weights. Good value?
Churchill Express: Poorly mapped today but has chances here if somehow gets the right run.
Murcielaga: Won well on heavy first prep. Has ability if trained on.
Royal Island: Big win first up but how will he go up in this class on a non-slow track.
Delagos: Huge run last start at Bendigo. Lost a plate and was slowly away. Should position slightly further forward.
Arsenal Power: Not good enough.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: 8-10 runners have a chance to win this. May have a small win bet on both the runners above.. but probably smallest bets of day if we do.

Caulfield Race 5
Amaethon: The last thing you should do is underestimate him. 60.5kg is very hard to hold, but this is winable if returns in best form. Barrier is a concern but if positions well enough, should go well.
General Truce: BIG run last start. Will need to position more forward today or get a split at the right time, but off 57kg, comes in very well here.
Stratcombe: 2.5kg worse off today against General Truce and will find it hard. Does seem map ok though.
Winter King: Struggles to win first up and only placed once from 4 tries at track. Is weighted ok today but would rather in another race.
Rescue Mission: Ran well enough in Group 1 company last start and after claim is only up 0.5kg. Speed maps very well and will be one to beat.
African Pulse: Love this horse. Been waiting for him to return for a long time and he comes back today off 52.5kg. Will take a sit most likely and with the weight, only needs to get out at the right time to win. big chance.
Esprit De Bullet: 3.5kg worse off today against Rescue Mission. Speed maps last and will be hard to win this.
Corvidae: hard horse to rate. Never won first up previously or even placed, but won 3 of last 5 runs and the other two were 2nd. This is much harder but if trained on can run well.
Galbraith: Couldn’t run out the furious pace last start at the Valley and would run better here if jumps ok. Likes the track.
Fab Fevola: Huge runs the last four runs. Needs to not miss the jump but off 54kg has every chance.
Jayconi: Big win last start over King Cotton who then won very well next start. Off 52kg, speed maps very well.
Livigno: Ignore first up run where favourite and didn’t get a run. Down 3.5kg today but never placed in this class or at this track.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 6, 7, 12, 13
Strategy: Word is that African Pulse has been working a treat and off 52.5kg should get out and win this. General Truce is big overs.

Caulfield Race 6
Budriguez: Got a little lucky last start to pinch a dead heat with Puissance De Lune. You do have to suggest that the 0.5L 3rd to Foreteller is great form now though and previous to that won the previous two. Back to 1400m not sure if that is good or bad but he will be hard to pass!
Precedence: Looking for further distances than this. Never won first up.
C’Est La Guerre: Good horse who has won 3 from 8 at this distance but 0 places from 8 at this track.
Launay: Big win last start at Flemington, but may find it hard today to slot in from the outside barrier. Only won once from 8 at track is an issue, but was impressive last start. Weighted nicely today also meeting British General 1.5kg better off today.
Parthian: Average run first up but has the ability to win this. Speed maps very well and should sit further forward today.
Under The Eiffel: Big win last start but doesn’t speed map as well today. Needs to find a better run but still a big chance.
Freereturn: Doesn’t seem to be going good enough this prep.
Sertorius: Quality runner who won five or six last start and looks better suited by this trip than previous attempts over further. Issue for mine is the quality of the runners here. Weighted nicely and speed maps well, but will he get the sit he needs?
British General: Will push forward from an outside barirer to most likely sit outside of Bud. Never count him out and nearly got his first win last start at Caulfield. In this big time.
Shout Out Loud: Not good enough for this on previous runs.
Blackie: Can’t see him getting up here. Does go well 2nd up though and loves the distance.
Proliferate: Talented horse who may need a few runs to get his best. Probably needs further.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 4, 6, 8
Strategy: He is carrying a fair weight, but you cannot question Bud’s form! Big odds here today. Launay is the next best for mine on speedmaps and weight. May have a saver on Sertorius.

Caulfield Race 7
Wall Street: Ran well enough last start but isn’t good enough off this weight in my opinion. Also better suited to a lesser distance.
Jet Away: Expected to run even better up to 2000m. Was super last start. Up 2.5kg today. Issue for mine is barrier 2. Will the horse get caught back? May position further forward. Not been advised as of yet.
Folding Gear: Ran well enough last start when blocked for run. Meets Jet Away 3kg better off today and has won 4 placed 3 at distance 3rd run in (won third run in last two preps as well. Big chance.
Callanish: Improved the last two starts but needs to find more today. Never run 2000m but should be fine. All depends on the pace he runs it.
Mutual Trust: Showed enough first up but has never run this distance. Others look better.
Vatuvei: Gains 2.5kg going up in distance today on Callanish. Looking for further it seems though.
Keep Cool: You know we love him, and we give him a huge chance today off 54kg. The sectionals don’t lie and he is in with a huge chance. Speed maps well enough to either take a sit or be along side callanish (hoping 1 out 1 back). Don’t overlook like most have!
Zabisco: Meets Jet Away 2.5kg better off today but does speed map poorly. Will struggle to get out and get a run.
Mourinho: Doesn’t look good enough to win this today off previous starts, but if Gold Sand wins very well in the first, may have more of a chance than we give him.
Whisper Downs: Another big win last start at Caulfield. Won 4 and placed 2 from 8 at this track. Meets Keep Cool 0.5kg worse off today and was 1.3L off him. Will go well but hard to see the win.
Red Shift: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 3, 7
Strategy: Jet Away and Keep Cool are the stand outs here for me. Can approach this in two ways. The first is to big bet Jet Away and medium bet Keep Cool. The other is to simply bet Keep Cool to place. Both look solid options but I most likely will opt for the first.

Caulfield Race 8
Bass Strait: Injured during race last start so forgive that run. Should run very well today. Has the ability to win.
Kerthos: Big win last start when slowly away and blocked for run. Will be going forward today and is a big chance. Only issue is extra distance.
Perfect Length: Good win in lesser class last start, but hard to see him measuring up here.
Shoreham: Weighted ok today but this looks a little harder than previous runs. Hard to see progression.
Chicharito: Poorly weighted today. Could improve but not this much I suggest.
White Sambuca: Speed maps go forward and looks very handy. Could go close.
Kings Palace: Need to show a lot more than last start. Has claims. Did run 1.3L behind Royal Haunt in maiden class!
The Principal: Hard to see on last two runs.
He’Snotthemessiah: Good win first up but this is certainly another huge step up.
The Cotch: Not good enough
Bel Thor: Hasn’t shown enough
Good Thinking: Had to go to country to get a win. Showed a little bit three back behind Hai Lil but needs to find 2-3L.
Northern Journey: Hard to see the progression.
Ginger’s Gem: Won well enough last start but this is another step up in class beyond her.
Precious Jewel: Very good win last start up in distance. Win wouldn’t shock.
Proserpina: Keeps running well without winning.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 6, 9, 15
Strategy: No chance I could bet here.

Rosehill Race 1
Fire Thunderbolt: Fairly average first up in WFA-G2 level. This looks much easier. Needs to show much more though.
Amorino: Not shown enough to suggest can win this on previous runs. Needs to have found 3L.
Heart Testa: Huge run last start but is 4kg worse off today against Ichihara who beat him. Hard to see the win off that alone.
Lampedusa: Ran well enough last start but 4.5kg worse off against Ichihara also.
Ichihara: Big win last start and the one to beat off weights. Needs to slot in is the only issue.
Lady Of Harrods: Ran very strongly first up. Got every chance out front controlling the pace but wasn’t good enough. Can’t have here.
Limes: Ran on well last start but Ichihara weighted too well today and from barrier 14 will be hard to get a good run. Still, don’t dismiss. May go forward?
Faustus: Not the worst form last prep but needs to have improved 2-3L today.
Chiaramonte: Just got the win last start. This looks MUCH harder.
Maximilian: Huge step up. Don’t think he is anywhere near good enough on last start.
Meidung: Ignore first up run. Was HUGE from last to first at Sandown two runs back. Sectionals were massive. Don’t dismiss here.
She’s A Fox: Came up against some very good horses last start when ran 3rd at Flemington. Weighted well enough to win today.
Brave Soul: Hasn’t shown enough to back her this prep just yet.
Secret Delight: Not good enough.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Hard to go past Ichihara to place here. Everything is screaming out that Ichihara places here more than 50% of the time which are the odds you are getting (or better).

Rosehill Race 2
Julienas: Runner with big ability but up 2.5kg today, will that do him in? Every right to win today.
Permit: Keeps running well but not on top for mine.
Dance With Her: Never won or placed on Good track… but will appreciate the extra distance. Not out of this but would prefer rain.
Pelicano: Big win last start at Rosehill. Has the ability to surprise.
Shadows In The Sun: Good run last start, but this seems harder.
Dame Claire: Very good run last start for 3rd at Morphetville and before that for 2nd at Flemington. Weighted well enough. Can place.
Coliseo: Improved two back and then again last start. Down in weights again. Looks well in here but has to come from far back on rails.
Tremec: Very good win last start. Can he measure up today? Speed maps very well.
Gazza Guru: Ran well enough last start and will appreciate the extra distance. Probably still outclassed.
Kaypers: Can’t see him measuring up here off the weights.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: 4-5 chances in this race which with this many runners generally means I need to get value or skip. Not sure this early.

Rosehill Race 3
Assail: Jumped $1.90 favourite first up when slowly away, hit the rail and just everything went wrong. Williams on, has every chance.
Bulbula: Just keeps putting in solid runs and was very good last start at Flemington. Weighted nicely again today. Will position forward. Big chance.
Brilliant Bisc: Hasn’t shown anything this prep.
Greytfilly: Ran strongly first up this prep and probably best today. Has to improve to win this.
Thump: Strong run last start. Big improvement. Still needs to find more.
Madame Fly: Can’t see a win today.
Vocalise: Can’t see enough improvement.
Scandiva: Impressive win last start in MUCH easier company. Could run well.
Sense of Hite: Ran on very well last start but got passed and couldn’t finish off. Did look to be a good thing.
Itameri: Unlucky first up at Moonee Valley. Much harder here.
Shahad: Hard to have.
Major Conquest: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Tweet: As above.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bulbula speed maps well and can win today. The place price looks juicy.

Rosehill Race 4
Fuerza: Ignore last start. Huge runs first two runs from the back and was further forward than should have been last start. Hitting line hard.
Good Job Bro: Big win two back but last start was simply poor. May be wanting it wet?
Dothraki: Been well backed to win here. Ignore last start where ran well enough.
Sidestep: Rider fell off last start. Before that close 2nd to Criterion. Big chance.
Flak Jacket: Not sure good enough. Will get stuck the rail.
Diamond Oasis: Won a maiden.. Hard to see step up.
Raise No Doubt: Wasn’t good enough last start and won’t measure up.
Senior Council: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Drago: Decent trial win. Hard to see win.
One Step Beyond: Trial was average. No thanks.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Looks a tricky race but SideStep is the one to beat.

Rosehill Race 5
Never Forget: Up 3.5kg today and hasn’t gone within 3.3L this prep. No thanks.
Crafty Irna: Unlucky not to win last start. Down 2kg today while Thy is up 2.5kg. Weighted to win.
Fibrillation: Ran well enough last few starts. Appreciate the distance increase but hard to see win on Good.
Thy: Looks to be weighted out of this today.
Aliyana Tilde: Huge run last start, but 3kg worse off against Crafty Irna? Has the chance either way.
Shamardani: Up 1kg like others in this race. Has a chance on previous runs.
Sindarin: Keeps putting in solid runs. Could be the one to beat.
Dolly Dolly: Good win at Gold Coast but this looks much harder. Has progressed ok this prep but outside barrier makes it hard to slot in.
Epingle: Big win last start at Flemington when blocked for run. Could sneak the win.
Natch Catch: Hard to see a win here.
Sables: Didn’t show enough last start.
Bold Sari: Good win last start as Gosford. Weighted ok but much harder company.
Out Girl Charlize: Not up to this.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Keep looking back over the video of the race most of the chances here are out of and on weights, I just cannot see Crafty Irna losing. Speed maps perfectly today.

Rosehill Race 6
It’s A Dundeel: The one to beat. Not sure I need to say much more. Only question is if he handles the track. Wasn’t suited by the longer straight (gets going better around a bend) at Flemington or here two back.
Tatra: Ran well enough last start when you consider he ran it out in a fairly speedy time. If McEvoy can slow the pace, has a big chance.
Hvasstan: The main danger for mine to It’s A Dundeel. Big run two back and then last start was quite impressive. Can either take a sit or position outside Tatra.. and if they run it slow out front, will be the one to beat.
Sacred Falls: Ran well enough last start but hard to see him winning this.
Solemn: Not classy enough.
Twisted Emotions: Last two runs were goos enough but this is much harder.
Kingdoms: No thanks.
Bloodbuzz Ohio: Not even in the lesser races today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg One: 2, 4
Strategy: Sure, It’s A Dundeel is the one to beat here, but I am very happy to be backing Hvasstan to place.

Rosehill Race 7
Sea Siren: Huge last prep in Melbourne. Weighted well enough to win this today.
Decision Time: Huge run first up! Can go close, but others preferred.
Temple of Boom: No thanks. Not at the weights.
Snitzerland: The one to beat. Was massive last start, but significantly worse off today at the weights. Can win, but is unders.
Atomic Force: Didn’t show us enough firs tup to suggest can win this.
Bel Sprinter: Seems to miss starts. Never lost first up (4/4) but speed maps badly.
Howmuchdoyouloveme: Ran well enough last start and meeting Snitz 4.5kg better off today, has every chance. Speed maps to lead today.
Tiger Tees: 4.5kg better off today against Snitz but would need to find another length or two to win this.
Title: Ignore first up run where was given a stupid weight first up. Will position further forward today being DOWN 10.5kg haha! Yes I said 10.5kg! Ran 3rd to Moment of Change last prep and 3rd to Were Gonna Rock also… has the ability and maps very well.
Golden Archer: Weighted much better today but probably won’t measure up to this class.
Pampelonne: Won a Group 2 last prep first up (didn’t really beat much). After that did run on well. Weighted very very well today, but will he get in? I have my doubts. Still, a very good chance at weights.
Dystopia: Should measure up to this class this prep. 1 win 1 place from 2 at class. 52kg.. weighted to win. Only issue is where she speed maps.
Unpretentious: Huge last prep and always goes well first up. Off 52kg, has the ability to go close today.
Isabella Snowflake: Huge win last start in equal class. Down 2kg today and speed maps well enough. Big chance. Ready To Rip who ran 2nd, then won next race..
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg two: 1, 2, 5, 10, 12, 13, 15, 16
Strategy: So many chances here. Small win bets if anything. I do want to see the price of Isabella closer to the race. I think she is WELL over the odds and may be a very good E/W bet.

Rosehill Race 8
Carlton House: Looks to be under the odds now. Should run well, no doubt, but will the horse run as well first up? Didn’t show enough last two starts for me to go crazy here.
Lamasery: Speedmaps out the back. Has the ability on last start but is probably better further into runs. Still a chance today.
Voila Ici: Ran a close second to Ocean Park 2nd up last prep. Has ability.
Monton: Unlucky not to win losing a plate. Down 1.5kg today. Big chance.
Skyerush: Big win first up. Will struggle to get a good position today but is every chance.
Triple Elegance: Good run last start behind Bello but needs to find a few more lengths.
Centennial Park: Won’t measure up here. Was good last start but race was run to suit.
Rainbow Styling: Not up to this class.
Riva De Lago: Sat a little to far forward last start. Extra distance will suit and should be hitting the line super hard.
Havana Rey: Up against it last start at the weights. Down 4.5kg today. BIG chance!
Lightinthenite: Won’t measure up to this class.
Stout Hearted: Looking for further than this first up. Win wouldn’t shock but I can’t have.
Willy Jimmy: Not up to this.
Beaten Up: How will this international runner go? Doesn’t seem good enough to me.
Famous Seamus: Very good last start, Will take a sit today. Weighted nicely.
Strike The Stars: No thanks.
Maules Creek: Not up tot this.
Scream Machine: Didn’t go as well as expect first up. Need to see late into preps.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 5, 9, 10
Strategy:

Rosehill Race 9
Miss Stellabelle: Blocked for runs but should speed map better today. A horse who doesn’t like winning.
Soft Sand: Different yard today. Looks under the odds IMO as last start was helped by the speed. Better over 1400m.
Altar: Big run last start and speed maps well enough to win today off weights. Don’t dismiss.
Arinosa: Just keeps running well. Has even more improvement to come from that first up run. Big issue with barrier.
Catkins: Huge win last start. Down 2.5kg today is big also.
Emotional Circus: Ran well enough first up but can’t see the improvement.
Aerobatics: Not up tot this.
Ever The Same: Not up to this.
Choice Words: Big run last start but can’t see her passing Arinosa today.
Brightest: Ran well enough last start but speed maps poorly here.
Shamal Wind: Down in class today and down 1.5kg. Was a huge run and if reproduces that today, will be winning.
New Beginning: Hard to back today on first up run.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 5, 6, 7, 13
Strategy: Hard to go past the two picks.

Oakbank Race 7
Hidden Value: A perfect 5 from 5 last prep. Up 1kg today but beat some very strong runers last prep. Goes well first up and could be value.
Avoid Lightning: Huge run last start.. will she have pulled up well enough? I suspect yes. Can win, and well.
Dream Face: Fairly average first up. Needs to find a few more lengths.
Periduki: Ran well enough last start. Can improve but needs to find more.
Classy Chloe: Never won first up but always goes well. has ability to win.
Riziz: Can’t see the progression.
Piolet’s Lane: Disappointing first two runs this prep.
Dee Bee Nine: Ignore runs in Tasmania and looks to runs previous to that. Has the ability and weighted ok.
Hollyweird: Good runs in Queensland but this is beyond her.
Katunga: Goes well at the track and ran a strong 2nd in Moonee Valley behind Fab Fevola. Could be her day?
Tykook: Very strong run two back but last start poor. Hard to tell.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Avoid Lightning very strong here and should be hard to beat. Have to saver Hidden Value.

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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