Horse Racing Form for Warrnambool Carnival Day 1 on 29 April 2014

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form guide for Day 1 of the Warrnambool Carnival on 29 April 2014. The carnival is set to be an action filled three day event and there are certainly a few races that stick out on the opening day. Don’t be fooled, there are some absolute rubbish races, but with 10 to choose from, we can still find 3-4 worth having a bet in! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 10 Akavoroun
Stands out today. Proven on a slow track and won a 3YO race at Caulfield in a very classy fashion before spelling. Looks to have been set for this race today and while there are a few who look like they could have promise going forward in the race, Akavoroun wins this 50% of the time on my ratings.

Best Place Bet

Warrnambool Race 1 Tambo
Ran very well 2nd behind Valediction last start at course and distance on a wet track. Should repeat that effort at a minimum today and that should have him right in the placings, if not winning.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au

Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.

Warrnambool Race 1
Tenby Lady is the short priced favourite and has only ever won or placed on good, with only 1 run on dead and 0 on slow or heavy. She certainly has to be respected on form, but so do the two $5 chances in Tambo and Campeao.
Campeao has Pateman onboard today which says more than enough about his chances. He has a good record at the track and is a proven stayer. Most importantly, he has won on a heavy track previously.
Tambo is the one who sticks out to me. Barrier 2, so you know he will get a positive position in running and he ran a brave 2nd behind Valediction last start at course and distance on a slow track.

Confidence 70%
Strategy: Tambo E/W

Warrnambool Race 2
Very average and tough maiden hurdle.
King Of The Gods showed enough in his first attempt this prep on slow after being 4L slow out of the barriers to suggest he can improve onwards with that run today.
Republic Lad comes into this as the favourite and on previous form will handle a slow track. His run last start was a big of a concern though over the 2600m where we should have seen him staying on late, but he fell out of it. He should be better over the jumps, but at the price, he looks a lay to me.
The two outsiders with chances for me are Clangor and Funded backed on their two back runs at Sandown. Clangor is less well weighted today, but should handle a wet track more than Funded.

Confidence 0%
Strategy: Better races. Would go with a small place bet on Clangor if playing.

Warrnambool Race 3
Big Ben Chimes has some solid enough slow and heavy form lines.. runs ‘ok’ over the distance and I can see potential.
Elms has placed in only ever run over a similar distance, no real wet trakc form but Pateman on suggests no drama.
Rich Heritage ran ok last start over the hurdles but needs to improve to win this.
Thubiaan stands out like a sore thumb. He loves these distances with 4 places from 5 on the flat at similar. As long as he jumps well, he should win this I’d say.

Confidence 75%
Strategy: Thubiaan to win

Warrnambool Race 4
A big lack of wet track form on the cards today in this race.
Notonyourlife can be forgiven for being too far back first up on heavy I reckon, still finished off ok enough. Next start ran well 3rd at Flemington in a classy field. Will go forward again today and should be hard to beat.
Mossbeat proved to be a solid filly with two runs at Sandown and Caulfield. No wet track form but times were ‘ok’ but nothing ground breaking.
Times for Arizona Skies race at Seymour were actually decent, but Oliver getting off says more than enough. Trialed ok.
Dyletta hasn’t been able to win a maiden from two runs so hard to suggest she wins this.
Spiderbite didn’t really measure up in her first prep but is bred well enough to run well today.
Already Leica got easy splits out the front last start at Geelong but just still lost. Not good enough.
Miss Mayflower was fairly average in her trial. I couldn’t have today.
Onedayson gets Rawiller on and is a Weir runner… first up at the bool.. he loves to win here and he probably saved her you have to expect. No trial but current favourite for a reason.

Comments: I wouldn’t fault you for wanting to back the first up Weir runner, but I like to go off what i’ve seen, and NotOnYourLife showed me enough to suggest she beats these home today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: NotOnYourLife to win

Warrnambool Race 5
Junk race with first runners to those with 19 starts. I can’t tip here.

Warrnambool Race 6
Markets have this as Palmero‘s to lose and off a 6.5L and 6.5L victory, that is true.
Cat’s Fun meets Palmero 3.5kg better off today for a 18.5L loss. He may just find better on a slow or heavy track with 2nds to Bashboy backing that form up… if the degrade of the track to heavy occurs, may be a bit of value.
King Triton meets Palmero 3kg better off today, but the last two starts has been convincingly beaten. Yes, the rain may help, but 6.5L and 8.5L? I can’t see him overcoming that today this far into prep.
Universal Sound ran well enough last two runs to suggest he can run well again. Equal weight today though and this looks a tad more difficult to me.

Comments: Palmero looks very hard to beat today. I think Cat’s Fun is the one who could do that today, but only if we get a heavy track.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Palmero to win on a slow 7. Cat’s to place on a Heavy 8+

Warrnambool Race 7
A very poor race on paper. I think Beliveau is a fake favourite today. His last race was the worst Open class race i’ve seen in a very long time and has to be wiped off his form. Yes, the 2nd to Signoff three back is noticeable, but at the weights, a few look better off here.
I like two at nice odds today.
McNulty has a reputation for being a cat, and i understand that, but a 2nd to Instrumentalist by 0.2L isn’t bad form at all. Off 52.5kg and does go well enough on a slow track, he has every chance today.

Comments: I was really keen on Space in this race with McNulty a clear 2nd pick. With this scratching, I think McNulty is the one to beat at a great price, but the horse does have to improve on what was shown on the first up run.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: McNulty 2 units to place 1 unit to win

Warrnambool Race 8
Evenmoreaction has won 3 of his last four, but has been winning in much easier races than these. Top weight certianly looks a little tough today for mine… but goes very well on heavy.
Flying Hussler has won 2 from 4 on heavy previously and ran home well enough last start at Caulfield on a slow track. Could improve again today.
Shiny Buttons has good wet track form and was a close 2nd last start behind Compound who has proven to be a classy runner. Keep improving this prep and could be hard to beat.
Lord Wimble hasn’t shown a lot this prep. Ran home ok but needs to improve at these weights to place for mine.
Base ran a very strong 3rd in the Group 2 over in Morphetville after a 2nd in Group 3 company. Don’t discount him, especially on a wet track, but the jump back in distance is alarming.
Me Hungi won a fair race last start at Bendigo in wet conditions from out the front. The runners here are a little classier than that field and he has to improve. Looks a chance.
Streaky Fella runs best well into his preps and looks to just be going around for a run today at this distance if you ask me.
Ace Or Joka has been battling in the lesser races recently. This looks a big step up in class.
Lethal Arrow went around last start as favourite at bendigo on a wet track but was highly disappointing. Did overrace but still no excuse. Can’t have today.
Hinchley Wood is a horse who has shown a great amount of potential. A 2nd to Akzar over 1600m this prep, his settling back in his runs has been his undoing if you ask me. They have been playing around with his distances also which i can’t understand at all, but he should handle the wet and is best over this distance. Looks a great chance at odds.
Caroun is looking for further than this today.
Chicanes has to prove to be in this class, and from what i’ve seen, he shouldn’t place today.

Comments: I keep thinking back to last prep when Flying Hussler destroyed a classy open class field by over 5 lengths from out the front and beat home Precedence who ran 2nd in that race. His run last start was good, but I think the ground today should suit him even more and he can carry weight. He looks the one to beat. I also feel Hichley Wood is a big chance at odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Flying Hussler to win. Lesser bet Hinchley Wood

Warrnambool Race 9
This level of class isn’t exactly my type of race. Too many form lines i’m not 100% familar with to be quite honest and I don’t feel overly confident in suggesting who will and won’t win. I will give a quick run down on a few I do like due to form.
Digby Road’s run firs tup last prep on slow was an eye-catcher. Ran home in good time behind a very classy horse in Five All. Then won at course 2nd up as well and has a very good record on this track.
Heisenberg‘s win first up was in a very strong time. 2nd up he failed to handle such a firm track and this suggests to be he will love the wet track on offer today. Barrier is an issue but Beriman should give him a good forward ride.
Mio Dio has some solid enough form lines to continue onwards. Times have been sound enough and only win was on heavy.

Comments: If i was to have a bet here, I would be taking a chance on Heisenberg.

Warrnambool Race 10
A clear standout in this race is Akavoroun. He won his maiden  on slow at course over 1400m. He then won a 3YO race at Caulfield very well on a dead surface and he was even blocked for a run. Showed so much promise in his first prep, the price looks value today.
Heavenly Hop ran home well enough last start at Caulfield and is a Weir runner at his home track where he has never missed a place. Unknown on wet.
Dare I Ask has some solid enough form lines from last prep. Goes well enough on wet tracks.
Tiger’s Cub should have beat Mandla at Geelong three runs back.. his next few runs were ok and previous to that were ‘ok’ also. Last win was on heavy.
Flirtatious Girl is a progressive type but is she really good enough to beat all of these? I have my doubts.

Comments: I can’t pass up the price on Akavoroun today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Akavoroun to win.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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