Welcome to The Profits form guide for Day 2 of the Warrnambool Carnival on 30 April 2014. The first day of the Carnival worked out quite well ending with our Best Bet getting up to finish the day strong. The card today looks a little tougher, but there is always value to be found. Hopefully we can snag another couple of bets! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Warrnambool Race 8 Tombola SCRATCHED – No Replacement
Yes, I’m aboslutely LOCO today! Tombola won first up last prep and continued on with it with 2 more wins after that including a very impressive win at Mornington over 1600m. His only run on heavy was for a win and from barrier 2, he is the only clear leader in the race for mine. I expect he will get every chance from his position out the front today and will be hard to get past. The price is more than double what I have him rated here.
Next Best
Warrnambool Race 6
Five horse play which should end up with about $4 odds if any of them win the race. Backing the Resistant, Bedisguised, Ilgattino, Lucky Striker and Scarlet Billows for stakes to end up with an equal win across the board.
Best Value
Warrnambool Race 7 Alpha Proxima
Alpha Proxima is absolutely flying based on last start run. Barrier today is a concern but doesn’t look a HUGE amount of speed and should get a forward position. Great value on the E/W
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Warrnambool Race 1
A very average way to start the day. Maiden form, lack of wet track form and non-winners.
The only horse who stands out on form lines to me is Danouli. He showed promise running 2L 5th in 3YO class but did disappoint as favourite last start.
Comments: No need to get involved here.
Warrnambool Race 2
This race isn’t much better than the first, but there at least are some types who show some promise.
Captain Angry went close when blocked for runs two back and then was simply too far back last start. Barrier 1 today will mean he gets the right spot today. Has handled heavy in the past.
Lord Carter went close last start over this distance on a slow track at Geelong. These do look a little better than what went around that day… but we know he likes it wet.
Smokeytown clearly handles the wet weather on last prep… but the first up run showed nothing.
Still My Friend has gone around at shortish prices the last few runs. Should run well.
Cherry Dancer is a short price today based off the improvement and close runs she showed this prep. No real wet track form to speak of though.
Ten Torinos ran ‘ok’ here on Slow at this track two back. Up in distance today, looks a little potential.
Comments: It’s hard to have a large amount of confidence in this race today, but it’s hard to go against Weir’s runner in Captain Angry. Weir looks to have one hand on the handle to the car!
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Captain Angry to win.
Warrnambool Race 3
Believe Me ran on very well last start at Bendigo on a Slow track over a similar distance in a very nice time. Looks to have improved and can run well today.
Benray ran a very good race last start at Donald. Only run three back at course over 1400m on slow was a close 2nd. Can improve today and looks the type ot handle it wet.
Danzadoozie has gone around a short priced favourite the last two runs. Only two runs on record on slow were fair at best.
Music To Midnight ran a good 2nd at Sandown last start. Comes into this well off. Barrier the only issue.
Wanna Dance was average at best first up compared to only run the previous prep. Has to show much more today.
Miss Yearn was ridden from the back last start at Caulfield over 1400m and finished off nicely without threatening. A wet track could be exactly what she needs and from barrier 2 will get a nice spot in running.
Speed to Bern showed promise her first two runs this prep but was still 2.8L and 3L off the victory. Looks to be slightly under the odds today on those runs.
To Do Was unlucky not to win a very poor maiden last start at Donald. Needs to show more than that run to win this though, but did show some potential.
Comments: A few form lines hard to line up here but two stand outs on my ratings.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Believe Me to win. Smaller bet Miss Yearn.
Warrnambool Race 4
Mossale is a wet tracker and two back showed this on Heavy at Sale.
Most Husbands last two runs have been very solid off the 60kg. Gets it again today but back to home track. Goes well at distance and goes ok on a wet track.
Gotta Love Darci has some nice form lines with a solid 2.5L 7th to Leadfoot last start at Bendigo. That was a hor race in my opinion. Only run on heavy was for a place and from barrier 2 looks very well in here today.
See What I Bring has shown he has some very big class. 3L win in his maiden from the back.. next start on slow was a forgive when lame. Then won by nearly 4 lengths next start at Donald. Disappointing last start but just have to simply forgive… has the knock out finish it seems.
Cash to Splash was very disappointing on Heavy last start. Hard to have today on that run for mine.
Wolfpack ran quite well last start at MV in harder class than this. Not sure what to make of him.
Anvil Green won his maiden two back and then last start at Geelong on the Slow ran ok. Can improve today after that run.
Sonntag is a horse who has measured up in 2YO grade last prep. Won his Sale maiden well last start on Slow from the back but didn’t handle a Heavy last prep it seemed… this horse went around $3.80 in his first prep against Long John!
Comments: Tough race. Quite a few form lines to go off but two runners outside of the favourite that I think should measure up here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Equal size bet on Gotta Love Darci and See What I Bring
Warrnambool Race 5
Gotta Take Care got the job done for us on the flat at Flemington last start. He is the top weight here over the hurdles but has proven to me he is fitter than any horse in this race. He handles the wet and is the obvious chance today!
MayTheHorseBeMagic proved me be a good horse over the Hurdles last prep and loves it wet wet wet. Looks a great knockout chance.
Dumosa doesn’t have much form on wet. Has won in much easier class than this over the hurdles this prep, he certainly has to improve.
Gimme Some Savings was a surprise winner last start at Oakbank. Poor form on wet tracks and hard to suggest he wins this.
Montgomery was fairly average last start in my opinion over the 2400m. Back to the Hurdles today, he showed his best last prep on a Heavy ground. At his best he goes close here. but is he really fit enough to show that this early into prep?
Stand To Gain’s last win was over Hurdles on a Heavy track at this distance last prep. Has been aimed at these today. Better later into prep.
Valediction won his hurdle debut well enough two runs back. Handles Heavy.. but this is MUCH much harder today. Looks way under the odds.
Comments: The price for Gotta Take Care today is juicy. I can’t ignore it. Maythehorsebemagic looks the one at a longer price who is overs.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Two ways to play here. Back Gotta Take Care for large amount with a smaller bet on Maythehorsebemagic. OR. Lay Valediction.
Warrnambool Race 6
Resistant was a little disappointing last startwhen 4L 5th on slow. He loves it wet but after two good runs previous to that, did disappoint. Meets Lucky Striker 4kg beter off today and even Written Up 5kg better off today on two back run when 1L behind him with excuses. Weighted to go close.
Written Up continues to run well. Goes very well on the wet surfaces as well as proven by 2 back win.. but at weights has to find 2 lengths today.
Lucky Striker is the one to beat today. His run last start at Caulfield over 1400m on slow was big. The time ran was very sound and he won with class. This is a step back in class but he is giving weight to a few today. Looks the one to beat on form.
Bedisguised Beat Lucky Striker three runs back and meets him 3.5kg better off today. Last two runs solid without exactly impressing.. but has a 7L win on Heavy in a maiden from last prep as form. Go well today.
Ilgattino ran nicely last start at Caulfield behind The Quarterback on slow for a 3rd place. Similar run today goes close to winning.
Emira won a maiden on slow very impressively by 7L.. has to improve again today to stand a chance though.
Scarlett Billows is just a forgive job for last start. Has a win over Ilgattino from last prep on heavy on record from out the front. Go well today.
Comments: This race comes down to prices. There are several key chances, some better at the weights and prices than others. It sounds crazy, I know, but backing 5 horses here will give you around $4 odds. This represents a 25% win rate. I have these five combined at closer to a 50% win rate.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Resistant, Bedisguised, Ilgattino, Lucky Striker and Scarlet Billows to win. Should end up with around 4-1 odds for either of these 5 horses to win.
Warrnambool Race 7
This is a wide open race. I love it. So many horses I truly love.
Blackie is a good horse. His first up form isn’t that crash hot and never run on heavy.. but has won on slow. Best seen over further IMO.
Lord of Brazil didn’t show us much last prep at all. Happy to forgive that and consider his not missed a place on slow and only missed a place once from three starts on heavy. Goes well this distance as well. Have to respect but others look better weighted.
Close two back in Listed company but just ran down. Last start had every chance on slow but probably ran a little too fast out front. Best shown on Good.
Callanish hasn’t been seen for a year! 3 starts on slow 2 starts on heavy for 5 wins in total. He is a beast on wet tracks… Last prep they tried to put him further up in distance with training but didn’t work. Back to basics this prep? Over the odds.
Anlon progressed very well last prep and got two classy wins to finish his campaign. Only run on slow was a win and placed on heavy. Better over further but don’t discount over this distance!
Another Prelate just never wins for us. Goes well on wet but just finds a way to get beat by a nose. Better over further? I can’t back in this class.
Stratcombe has shown nothing first two runs this prep. No form on wet. No thanks.
Alpha Proxima went back in running last start at Caulfield in a similar grade of race and finished off very nicely on a slow track. Was blocked for runs also. Oliver goes on. I love this horse. He goes very close today.
Undeniably won well enough two back but last start couldn’t beat 5 others home at Adelaide. No wet track form. No thanks.
Don’t Get Excited goes very well on wet tracks. Ran a good 2nd to Knoydart last prep as well. Did he take the step to Listed company? No he didn’t. Under the odds today first up. Only placed once from 6 starts at this class.
Kneeling ran home nicely for 2nd to Halle Rocks last start. Up in class and up in weight today, will enjoy a wet track again and can run well from barrier.
Magnus Reign always runs well but no wet track form so hard to suggest he wins this.
Comments: Keen today on Alpha Proxima on what he showed us first up. Can be ridden with out the back, in the middle or onspeed which is what I would prefer. Only issue of concern is the barrier. Callanish has to be respected as well today back on Heavy.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Win bet on Alpha Proxima. Lesser bet on Callanish.
Warrnambool Race 8
Just the four who stand out for me in this race.
Give Me Faith surprised many with 61kg last start at Bendigo and ran home very well over what looked an unsuitable distance on slow for the win. Won it well. Can improve again today up in distance as well. Big chance.
The Ten Bob showed a lot of class winning firs tup by nearly 3 lengths on dead and has shown to be handy enough on Heavy with a maiden win.
Canna won last start in an easier race on slow. Should run well.
Comments: Tombola will lead today and rates very well while The Ten Bob looks hard to beat off first up run. Give Me Faith will be running home well late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Small bets THe Ten Bob and Give Me Faith
Warrnambool Race 9
Not sure what else I can say here – so many form lines I can’t match up, so I have to lean to the class of the race. Black Jack Boy is about 5 classes better than any horse running around here today. He loves a short distance track and off 60kg is the correct weight today. Last win was over this distance on a slow track and looks a great E/W chance.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Black Jack Boy E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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