Geelong Cup day is upon us. The cup is known for tossing up Melbourne Cup hopefuls and recently, winners. This year, we see a few quality runners going around again but it is a much harder field than the previous years to pick. There is some BIG value available for the whole card and if our hot streak continues, the kitty will be filled up for Moonee Valley over the weekend. Good luck, have a great day and happy punting!
Adjustment for scratchings will be posted on twitter if there are any.
Best Bet Warwick Farm
Race 4 Medusa’s Miss
Best Bet Geelong
Race 8 Gossip Girl
Best Value
Race 9 Zaamore
Race 4 Agrippa
Best Lay
Race 7 Tac De Boistron
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Medusa’s Miss is a horse we have been following for a long time. She has some super sectionals in her legs and showed us her talent last start. Penalised for the super run last start, will run on strongly again today. The price is value. Expected at maximum $3.20 and would have backed all the way down to $2.70.
Geelong Race 1
Ignore last start of Cavendish and look to two back where was at Course and 100m more in distance in a very fast time in harder class. Can go very close again. Weight shouldn’t be an issue on run four back.
Spatha has some solid form lines but this looks a step harder today off the weight. Will need to improve.
Testaguy back down in class here again and up in weight. On three back run in much harder company can go close here today. Issue is the distance and only won once from five first up.
Wannajewel outclassed here today.
Dashalot a solid run last start but this seems a much classier race than previous start. Needs to find an extra length today.
Run Diego will be there at the end.
Lonhrotothetop is hard to place here. Seems to be wanting a longer distance and has been off over 7 months but if produces a solid run, could lead from start to finish if trained on.
Confidence 75%
Geelong Race 2
Baby Boy is certainly a hard horse to place. Six months off and they put it into a top class race last prep thinking it had the ability. Think he will be found wanting here but the 1800m 1L 4th in 3YO-75 shows a bit of potential.
Rock ‘N’ Royal comes into this after a very solid second up run. Does need to improve here againt oday and the weight of 60kg doesn’t help.
That’s The Way is a very solid performer who did disappoint last start. Back down in class again here and will run strongly.
Prior has the best form lines coming into this race. Off 58kg here looks suited to win. Times are solid.
Leaping leroy outclassed.
Tidal Command has been strong the last three runs (ignore run on heavy). Will run well again today.
Zanteco seems very profressive. Does need to improve big time today here.
Shoshonee was super last first up and on weights will be hard to hold out. The time on slow was very good. Certainly a step up but has a big shot.
Gerontius down from Sydney and into the Hayes yard. Oliver booked for the ride means they are serious here and the winner of the race he ran 1.3L 3rd in would win this with ease.
Purrplexed outclassed on weights
Mont Dane outclassed and not worth considering.
Confidence 65%
Geelong Race 3
Keep Control back into a winable race today. Last two runs were solid and could produce a winning run today.
Cry In Awe was very average the last two starts in MUCH harder company than this today. Hopefully the owners understand what type of company Cry belongs inand this is it. Has a big chance today.
Altonio is hard to place here today. Ran on strongly last start at Caulfield but previous two runs didn’t show much at all. Will enjoy a Good track today and if gets that may go close.
Arch Fire was sent out here from England. That type of move is certainly costly and there is a reason for the change. Won nicely last start over 2400m and is 1 win 1 place from 3 starts over the distance. Looks to be wanting a Good track only on previous runs. Weighted well with Nolen on board.
Garud meets Arch Fire 2kg better off today and on the last run, that is the difference today. Has ran second in three of last four races but does look suited here today.
Savour That won last prep in harder class. Went for a spell and didn’t come back in great form at all. Could run a very solid race today still.
Lucky Angel down 3kg from last run which makes her on terms with the others here today. Strong form lines.
prussian officer big time down in class but shown nothing this prep.
Amber Grey never won 2nd up and didn’t show enough first up to back here.
Circle The Globe is 1 win from 1 start at distance. Has gone backwards this prep compared to previous prep. Has never won or placed in this class interestingly from 5 starts!
Galibant is 2 wins 2 places from 6 starts at distance. Something went wrong last start and down 3kg here. On best could go close.
Bioko needs to improve here today but on this weight can.
About the Journey not good enough today.
Mr Birchy has improved the last two starts. Weighted nicely today but needs to be able to run faster times.
Confidence 65%
Geelong Race 4
This is going to be one of the best races of the day.
Under the Eiffel is a super horse but last prep didn’t come in with the best of form not winning a race. The previous prep he won all three races. He is 3 wins 1 place from 4 starts at the distance and is 2 wins 2 places first up. Interestingly, he is only 1 win 4 places from 14 starts in this class. He will certainly go close today but the weight is a big issue.
Elusive Touch has some serious claims if he has trained on. 58kg is the correct weight here. Interestingly ran 2L behind Ortensia over in WA two preps back.
Essintgon on both runs this start can’t win. Has to improve 4-5L.
Sadalbari outclassed here.
Agrippa is a HUGE chance here today. Runs well first up and last prep was simply super. 55.5kg is suitable.
From The Terrace a nice win last start but the time was way too slow.
Port Vell not classy enough to win this today and has never won first up or at distance.
Dash For Viz never won 2nd up and never won in class. Has to improve 4 lengths.
Confidence 80%
Geelong Race 5
Newitt jumps onto Brewski who is down in class here. Has won once first up and once at distance. Looks suited to longer distances but is weighted well today. If trained on a big chance.
Beacons can be ignored for last start when blocked for run. Down 1.5kg today and on previous form can win this. Take beating.
Hammer Time was very solid first up but this is a much classier race today.
Harry’s Magic has won 2 placed 3 from 5 at distance. Was very solid first up but next two starts didn’t produce enough. Needs to improve today.
Safari looks outclassed although you can never discount a Kent runner. He seems to place them perfectly and with one year off, you never know. Seemed to be very solid in New Zealand.
Famous Finnish on weight looks to be held here.
Rollerball outclassed.
Rose Pattern a big bhance today. Strong Caulfield runs in form line and two previous runs nice and solid also.
Whisky Four needs luck from barrier 1
Oriental Ruby looks a chance here after the 3kg claim. Goes well at this distance.
Another Blue Boy needs to improve today to have a chance from the barrier.
Felidea can go close today on previous form.
Zuckerberg has disappointed both runs this prep at short prices. Could run well here at a better price today.
Tatt’s Girl no chance today on previous tow runs.
Confidence 70%
Geelong Race 6
Road Trippin’s 2.5L run behind Hvasstan three runs back looks promising here today. Could run a solid race.
Escado put in two big runs the last two runs. Only issue is how far he will get back today.
Danas Best is taking a big step up in class today. Happy to be against.
Solemn has some nice form lines but seems outclassed here today.
Correggio was very strong winning last start. Moody seems to have the horse placed nicely and will run on today.
Our Desert Warrior out of the Waterhouse yard is a BIG chance today. Seems to be crying out for the extra distance and hopefully Rawiller can give a solid ride today.
Bunchloch outclassed.
Tronador outclassed.
Malabar Man outclassed.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 6, 7
Geelong Race 7
MaLuckyDay but in a solid run last start over the 2520m trip. Comes in today outclassed.
Tac De Boistron has never won OR placed first up. Has never won and only placed once from 8 starts at this distance and from 10 starts on Good has never won or placed. Happy to be against!
Brigantin has some very solid form lines on his last two runs. Ignore the first up run behind Tac De Boistron when on a slow track. Will appreciate the 57.5kg weight, likes a Good track and likes the distance. Expect him to go very close today.
Gatewood will be absolutely tested here today. I didn’t see much in the first up run in Australia but that being said, Gatewood will sit on the speed today and be given every chance. Has won 3 and placed 3 from 8 on Good and is weighted nicely off 55.5kg. Form around Masterstroke and My Quest for Peace are strong.
Exceptionally keeps putting in very solid runs from the back of fields. Was massive when blocked for a run last start and will improve on that again today. The only issue is the fact that Geelong isn’t suited to swoopers.
Chateau Margaux is outclassed here today but will be able to sit forward today and could run a very solid race.
Back in Black shouldn’t even be getting a run here today. Outclassed.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 4, 5
Geelong Race 8
Aerobatics didn’t show enough last start to be winning here today. Needs to improve on that run.
Gossip Girl looks suited here today. Will be able to go forward (as she should) and run on unlike last start. On best, simply wins this.
Koonoomoo put in a massive run last start and could improve on that today.
Sensational Report didn’t show enough last start. Happy to ignore here.
Florets has won both runs this prep and is going along nicely. Could improve enough to win today.
Stacey Lee outclassed here but did run well last start.
Louisville Dancer a chance here today but should get too far back and get stuck from barrier 2.
Streets of Seattle no chance.
Spot on Maggie will get too far back today but is due to put in another solid run.
Honey Flower outclassed
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9
Geelong Race 9
Studley Park too far back today to win on this weight.
New York improved big time last prep. From barrier 1 needs a massive ride from Boss. Happy to be against.
Intencion solid form two back but needs a wetter track.
Nice and Neat outclassed.
Sabres solid last two starts and could run on again today. Has solid sectionals.
Chatrang outclassed.
Eight Cards outclassed.
Zaamore is super value here today. Ignore first up run where so many things went wrong and look to back down in this class today weighted nicely.
Cross Street looks outclassed today.
Grand Sunday can be ignored for last start failing but should run better today. Issue is the ground.
Verification on first two runs this prep can’t win.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 5, 9, 11
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