Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley Cox Plate Day, Rosehill, Doomben and Morphetville – Saturday 27 Oc

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to our Cox Plate Day write up. It has been a good week for our Best Bets with Medusa’s Miss saluting at $3.80 on Wednesday and Sea Lord last night at $5.20. Let’s try and make it three from three this week! We want to point out once again that we don’t bet every single race we put up and that you should only use our form for what it is, a guide. Always do your own form, always read into races what you want. This looks like one of the hardest Cox Plates to pick for a long time. If the track plays like it did last night, you will want to be on a horse speed mapping into the race anywhere from first to seventh at the 300m mark. Good luck, enjoy the day and happy punting!

Best Bet Moonee Valley
Race 4 Essay Raider

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 2 Freereturn
Rosehill Race 6 Brian’s Honour
Rosehill Race 8 Guderian

Best Lays
1. Moonee Valley Race 6 Midas Touch
2. Moonee Valley Race 8 Ethiopia (to place)
3. Moonee Valley Race 9 Zurella

Betting Specials
Pick the top 8 finishing order for the Cox Plate and win $1,000,000. Sounds easy right? Well Sportingbet are giving it away. The odds are certainly not in your favour but there is a minimum of $50,000 to give away if no one picks all 8 correctly. Click the banner on our right to get started with them.

If your horse comes 2nd in the Cox Plate, Sportsbet will give your money back up to a maximum of $100

If you select the Cox Plate winner on Luxbet and back it.. you not only get paid out, you also get a Bonus Bet equal to your stake.

Sportingbet is paying Best Tote Exotics throughout the Melbourne & Sydney Spring Racing Carnival. This includes Quaddies.

As always, Betstar is offering double fixed odds for Group 1s from 8am in the morning. If you are new to Betstar, use the referral code 23703.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Direct Change: Didn’t show enough first up to make you want to back him today.
All Rigged Up: Outclassed on first up run where didn’t make up any ground.
Storm Shield: Ignore first up run if you backed him. Equal class today and should be more forward.
Crack a Roadie: Full brother to a fairly handy 3YO Road Trippin. Ran on well in the trial at Cranbourne and could run well today.
Lannister: The 5th out of the dam with only one 6YO with decent cash to it’s name. Rodd booked is interesting but from barrier 13 will need to be something special.
Pompeius: No relatives to look at, hasn’t raced so hard to place.
Ryker: No relatives to go off of apart from the fast that he is having his first start out of the waterhouse yard. Looked good winning a trial and blinkers. Barrier 1 suits a front ride obviously.
Shamus Award: Family don’t have much money to name and don’t show much class. Out of Snitzel so could be suited today but first start.
Twin Tea Bags: Poor trial form. Happy to bet around him.
Mezeray Miss: Didn’t show anything first up. Needs to improve big time here today.
Diva Dee: No information to go off apart from 2nd in a trial. Looks fair enough trial form.
Fantome Gris: Market is your only guide.
Pinova: Full sister is fairly average but half brother Straight Gold 2nd up ran third behind Satin Shoes and Elite Falls before getting injured it looks like and hasn’t raced for 587 days (in a race behind smart missile and sepoy). This seems to be some strong breeding lines.
Confidence: 50%

Moonee Valley Race 2
Kulgrinda: Very disappointing last start in lesser class. Does go well at the track 4 wins from 6 starts and likes the distance. Needs to improve on last two runs.
Freereturn: Three wins one place from 4 at the track. Freereturn just keeps putting in solid runs here. Form two back franked by Sea Lord winning last night at MV. Barrier three means he will sit a little further forward today and be right there at the end.
Obsidian Dragon: Obsidian Dragon a very good second up run. Loves the track and will go super once again today.
Winter King: Some very strong runs last prep including a second to Zaratone two back. Does go well first up with 1 win 5 places from 6 and goes well in this class. Just doesn’t win very often is the issue. 58kg does look a little harsh.
Beyond Pardon: Needs to improve big time today off previous form. Can’t have even though Rodd is riding.
Galbraith: Barrier two suits today. Was a super run last start. He actually looked like he wanted to be racing unlike the previous prep or run. Will go forward and has won 3 from 7 at the track. Still has a win in his legs. Needs to look like he wants to race in the ring.
Bigelow: One place one win from 2 starts at the distance. 2 wins from 2 starts at the track. Down to 54.5kg first up 2 wins 1 place first up from 3 starts. Big issue is barrier 1. Speed maps to need a run in the race. Has the ability to win this.
I Get Around: Won his last four races in much easier class. Interestingly, the latest run was behind Earnest Ernest who has been shown to be a decent horse. If trained on will go strongly. Can run the time to win and barrier 6 will go close.
Confidence: 70%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Extra Zero: Very strong run last week by Extra Zero at Caulfield. That was a big improvement and up 2kg here today can run strongly again. 7 starts 0 wins 2 places at track is an issue.
Shewan: Returned poorly this prep. Weighted harshly and needs to improve 3L to be a chance.
Midnight Martini: Super impressive last start. From barrier 3 can get a similar ride and will certainly be hard to beat. Issue with 0 wins 0 places from 2 at track but happy to forgive.
Texas Warney: A big reversal of form last start by Texas Warney in the Horsham Cup. Can improve again today and run a very close race.
Destiny’s Kiss: Sat in a poor position last race and should be ridden closer to the front today. Garud won at Geelong ranking the form of the horse. Can go close today.
Akzar: Akzar has been putting in some nice runs recently and off 54kg can go close here today. Only issue is where he sits in the run.
Mourinho: A solid run last start behind Sertorius but does look outclassed.
Confidence: 75%

Moonee Valley Race 4
Chosen Moment: A decent first up run in lesser company last start. Could improve on again today from 56kg.
Hidden warrior: Over 1000m has a 0.2L loss to a classy horse named PIERRO from last prep. Won a maiden first up and then second over the 1100m. Needs to improve to beat these today but on previous form lines has a chance.
Maury: Needs to improve 4L here today. Happy to be against.
Haussmann: Slow times ran last prep.. Down 3kg but up in class today. Needs to have trained on very well for a chance today. Snowden is the type of trainer who can achieve that.
Star In The Sky: Big win second up beating a smart horse in Sweet Little Lies over the 950. Up to 1200m from barrier 2. Speed maps nicely into it, only question is if he can run out the 1200m strongly.
Essay Raider: Lost a plate 0.2L behind Just Discreet last start. The one to beat simply. Goes forward and will be hard to run down.
Cavalry Rose: Strong run last start. Mareeza didn’t show much last night to frank the form. Should get an easy run but may find this harder today.
Vicario: First run last prep was a strongly ran 1000m 2nd. First up this prep won a maiden nicely but this is a step up.
Confidence: 90%

Moonee Valley Race 5
It’s A Dundeel: Produced one of the biggest final 100m runs i’ve seen from a 3YO last start beating Proisir. Five from five and should have no trouble making it six from six. The only query is the short straight.
Viking Star: Showed enough the last three starts to give himself a very faint hope. Does appear outclassed today obviously but can run a strong race and sneak into second/third.
If I Could: Strong form lines around horses like Lady of Harrods and Epaulette. Will run gamely today but outclassed.
Super Cool: Decent run last start. Just keeps finding ways to lose. Will go strong here today but up to 2040m can’t be near him.
Bullion Express: Ignore last start.. on previous run no where near winning still.
Prisoner Of War: On previous form, no chance today although did run well last up.
Nisos: Couldn’t win a maiden this prep.
Confidence: 100%

Moonee Valley Race 6
Unusual Suspect: Shown us nothing all three preps. Can’t have.
Precedence: Blocked for run last two starts but hasn’t been the best in those races. Comes back here today on a decent 57kg and should run on well with a 4 win from 7 starts at MV. Does like the distance.
Rialya: A game five last start at Flemington but needs to improve on that today to have a chance up 2.5kg.
Ironstein: The last two runs this horse has let down have been super solid. From barrier five will get a good midfield run and this is a very winable race.
Shenzhou Steeds: Since the 7L win last prep, has returned in fairly average order. Worst run was last start at Flemington over the 2500m. Distance looks an issue on that run.
Reuben Percival: On previous three runs not up to this.
Ibicenco: never won in this class or at distance. Will need to have trained on big time on last up run to have a chance today. If produces a run of two back, has a change as Opinion Poll is a classy horse.
Midas Touch: Happy to be against Midas Touch again today. Doesn’t have the quality or run in the legs.
Vatuvei: Has the ability but just keeps getting beaten. Needs to come from a long way back again today.
Confidence: 75%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 4, 7, 8

Moonee Valley Race 7
Rangirangdoo: Simply a forgive run last start for Rangi and look to second up behind SHoot Out where strong to the line. Will go forward today from barrier three and be right on the pace. Enjoys the track and has a great record at this distance.
Solzhenitsyn: Was given some easy sectionals while the front runners did all the work last prep and off the 52kg just gobbled them up. Back to 59kg here today. May get trapped for a run from barrier 1 today. Still, will be there at the end.
Spacecraft: On two previous runs, can’t win this.
Illo: Outclassed
Tokugawa: Goes well around this course but off 59kg is outclassed today at the weights.
Ambidexter: Meets Rangirangdo 5kg worse off today which is a huge concern.. Amdidexter is a horse who is as true as the day is long. Has never won at 1600m is a big issue although 0.8L 4th to Mosheen and 0.2L to Fat Al are not bad recent runs. Will run gamely but the weight doesn’t help.
Silent Achiever: Silent Achiever was in fine form last prep but seems to be wanting longer than this distance. Will be getting far back but in such a small field does have a good chance. Off first up run in New Zealand, happy to look elsewhere.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 6

Moonee Valley Race 8
Shoot Out: Suited by barrier four today and against horses on equal weights for once. Never won over 2000m distance with three places and never won at track from 2 starts. Was very game two back but didn’t show much last start. On best will be there at the finish and you can’t discount him due to a good speed map position.
Sincero: This is a horse that simply isn’t a 2000m horse. Last start first place at distance from 4 tries in what was a very average field. Barrier 12 not ideal at all. Needs a good track to have any chance.
Glass Harmonium: Won 4 and placed 3 from 13 at distance. A very game horse but looks outclassed here only two runs into prep.
Green Moon: 4 wins 1 place from 6 at distance is very solid. The major issue is 0 wins 1 place from 5 off 59kg. Has the talent to go close today but off the 59kg and the form line of Seville who ran second last start questionable, we are happy to be against Green Moon today.
Rekindled Interest: Two back run finishing strongly behind Happy Trails and Green Moon was nice but hasn’t shown anything else this prep. Barrier 1 will get trapped for no run.
Linton: Outclassed here and weighted out of it.
Happy Trails: Two wins, a second to sincero and a 5th to Green Moon this prep. Won at course off 59kg two back beating Green Moon. From barrier 8 can speed map well into the race. If trained on, will be staying on strongly to the line.
Ethiopia: Outclassed here off first two runs this prep. Needs to find lengths.
Ocean Park: Super runs two and three back when blocked and still finds a way to win. Last start looked a little average but did win by nearly a length. Barrier 9 to suit and will be coming home hard late.
More Joyous: Apart from going too hard early, it looked like something went wrong with her. Barrier 11 an issue obviously but she will be pushing forward and off 57kg, she is certainly one to beat here. 5 wins 1 place in this class is hard to ignore.
Southern Speed: Ignore last start and look to two previous runs. Can go strongly again today on those two runs but has never won at distance or at track. Against it today.
Pierro: Super run last start. You can’t fault him on that ride and off 49.5kg up front will be super hard to pass.
All Too Hard: Gets too far back today for my liking. Strong run home last start but was helped by the pace early.
Proisir: Showed enough this prep to make you think he can win today if given a solid ride. May be found out by classier horses today.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 7, 9, 10, 12, 14

Moonee Valley Race 9
Pretty much the hardest race of the day outside of the Plate.
Spirit Song: A very game run last start and looked like she was back to her best. Up 7kg here and should find another strong run from barrier 4.
Skyerush: Super unlucky not to win last start and on form should be winning here today if gets a solid run from barrer 6.
Zurella: Excuses the last two starts but simply just seems to have been outclassed last two runs and finds itself outclassed again today from positioning.
Hi Belle: Not shown enough the last two starts to back her today.
Star of Giselle: Super runs the last three starts. Lead start to finish last start and will try and do the same again today. At the weights is suited.
Pretty Pins: Ran on strongly last start but can’t back due to no weight advantage.
Sean Baile Mor: Outclassed
Tavarnelle: A smokey in the race at a price. Went close last start behind a solid horse in Moriarty up inb Sydney. This race is much harder today but at the price can be backed from barrier 1. At the price, you need it ridden on the rails for luck. Could steal it.
Confidence: 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 5, 9

Rosehill Race 1
A fairly strong race. Rowie seems to be the strongest horse in the race and at the price looks value.

Rosehill Race 2
Better races to bet in today. Skip this one.

Rosehill Race 3
Three clear chances in this race with Hoylonny, Cantonese and History No Hurdle. No bet race here.

Rosehill Race 4
Rebel Dane looks the top hope here. Field Marshall some nice form lines and Mount Nebo the value of the race.

Rosehill Race 5
Arinosa has won by 4L and 2.8L her last two starts. Down 0.5kg from last run and even lost an iron. The price looks value.

Rosehill Race 6
Brian’s Honour was big last start at Flemington. Looks suited here today at the weights.

Rosehill Race 7
Diamond Jim is massive overs today. 52.5kg makes this a very winable race. Will be sitting far back and coming late. Has the ability

Rosehill Race 8
Guderian can be forgiven for last start. Look two and three back where won and 1.8L behind Rolling Pin. Down to 52kg today and certainly a big chance.

Doomben Race 4
Celtic Dancer comes into this off a huge last prep. At best simply just wins this. Need to saver Funtantes here.

Doomben Race 7
Flying Jet up in class today but down 3.5kg. Seems suited at a good price.

Morphetville Race 5
Justify That a super run last start unlucky not to hold out Classy Chloe. Meets Verco Road much better off today as well on weights from two back run.

Please Note:
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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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