Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Friday 16 November

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits Moonee Valley form. We went massive at ‘Money Valley’ two weeks back picking 6/8 on top. Suspect that will be very hard to repeat but we went close last Friday at Cranbourne (Both best bets winning)! That was followed up by our two best bets on Saturday getting up which was a very nice change considering how tough the carnival has been for everyone. As always, do your own form, compare and good luck!

Best Bet
Race 3 Conferre

Next Best
Race 5 Flash Of Doubt

Best Value
Race 6 Louisville Dancer

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Hollywood Gothic: Big run first up and was super last start at course from the back. Hopefully decides to sit a little closer to the front today.
Star O’Reilly: Ran a game race in a decent time last start. Will do a bit of work early to get foward and be there at the finish.
Eye The World: Nice trial win but this is a step up today.
Longeron: Market only guide
Wild Erp: A little disappointing not to win last start. Down 1kg here today and a big chance but needs to improve.
Hermosa: Strong third on a heavy track last start. Could have trained on even more and be suited today.
Valrouz: Best in the race off 2YO form. Blocked for run last start and was very disappointing that she didn’t win. Needs to step up again today.
I’m Wicked: Needs to improve.
Lustful: Needs to improve on last run.
Mystery Creek: Unknown how he will run today. Market will guide.
Beneficiary: Good 3rd behind King Krovanh last start but this seems a step up in class.
Unique Ruler: Will be going forward today and can run decent times. Very disappointing last start but has the ability.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 2
Sean Baile Mor: Weighted well today but simply not good enough in this class. Never placed from 4 starts at track.
Lucky Angel: Meets Orbicat 3L better off today and he shouldn’t get such an easy run today. Has a chance if ridden a little more forward today.
Mr Consolidator: Brave win last start in much easier company. Weighted poorly here but should still run well.
Orbicat: Won last three and was super impressive last start. Even lost a plate during the run. Got away with a murderous pace for most of the race. Will go close.
Arch Fire: Meets Orbicat 3.5kg better off today. Form around Garud is strong and if there is a truer pace today, will go close.
Altonio: Needs to find 4-5L today.
Quick Bond: Weighted out of this today. Worse off than Orbicat today and lost by 5.8L
Eleuther: Looks like he has come to the end of prep on last two runs. Needs to improve a few lengths today.
Sliced: Outclassed on runs this prep.
Confidence 75%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Model To Nite: Runs well at the track and is weighted nicely today in this class. Could run well.
Yuka Joy: Strong start to finish win last start. Will push forward again today and should get the run of the race out the front. If Apres or Mr Consolidator wins the previous race, the form is certainly franked.
Help: Unlucky second last start to an improved Hollywood. Weighted to win from barrier 5 today. Big chance.
Magic Pulse: Down in class but will sit a long way back today. Has the ability on previous runs and seems to like the distance.
Rock Robster: Needs to improve today but weighted well.
Conferre: The class runner of the race, Won very well beating Yuka Joy two back by 3.3L and meets today only 1.5kg worse off. Will get a super run from barrier 3 and will sit forward. The one to beat.
Prussian Dancer: Never a long distance off but never in striking distance either. Never won at class or track.
Vivacious Miss: Has ability but is outclassed today.
Silver Coin: Good win last start but outclassed today.
Confidence 85%

Moonee Valley Race 4
Duke of Cornwall: Weighted harshly today but will sit further forward today. Won in class but not at track or distance. Needs to find a few lengths.
Vatican: Last two runs at track have been ‘big’. Very solid form, down in class today and weighted nicely. A big chance.
Johnny Fiasco: Never won first up is a big issue for the horse. Has won 1 from 8 at track and 2 from 27 at class. On last five runs last prep has the ability to win today.
Bon Genre: Won 3 from 4 at distance but times are fairly poor. Step up in class today. If trained on will run well.
Chelembra: Poor run first up but down in class today and down 3kg after claim. Weighted to win if produces best. Needs to do a lot of work early from barrier 13.
Halle Rocks: She does rock. 2 from 2 first up. Way down in class today and weighted nicely. Barrier 1 suits. The one to beat.
Mr Obvious: Barrier 7 will be going forward. First up run ran a very slow time out front and produced a nice run. Weighted well today. Up in class only issue.
Ogunde: Look elsewhere on first up run.
Spirited Addition: Weighted nicely after claim but needs to have trained on big time today. Not suited by speed map.
Locke’s Choice: Big run last start when rider lost whip. Can improve today.
Grippet: Will work hard early to get across and put some pace into the race. Weighted nicely.
Pakari Toa: Needs to have trained on something massive to have a chance today.
Confidence 80%

Moonee Valley Race 5
Flash of Doubt: Last start run behind Honey Flower was absolutely huge when blocked for run. Should have finished at least 3rd that day. Expect her to sit further forward today and to be pushing late. Has the ability to tough it out. 5 wins 5 places from 12 at distance.
Kisrak: Very poor first up. Needs to improve today to have a chance.
Gold Zero: Won’t measure up to this grade as per last start fail in a lower class.
Peninsula Dane: Big run last start and weighted well today. Can go close with dream run from barrier 1.
Shiny and New: Gives weight to Peninsula Dane today who beat her last start. Will run a solid race once again.
Arkiboum: Worse off for weight today than Peninsula and Shiny. Will run well again.
Melba: Gives Shiny and New 3kg today. On these weights, needs to have improved at least 2L from two back to win today.
Gotta Laugh: Disappointing last two starts. May be coming to end of prep but does have a chance off 52kg today.
Suvarna: Outclassed on first up run.
Viva La Show: Outclassed here.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 4

Moonee Valley Race 6
Outstandingly: Ran on ok last start in much harder grade. Weighted nicely here today from barrier 1 and if shows ability of last prep, will go close today.
Clanga’s Glory: 3L loss to Lord of Brazil only start last prep is solid form. If produces first up can run well.
Umgeton: Good first up run this prep but after that hasn’t measured up in higher grade races. Last start injured in race. 57kg and barrier 4. Could run well today.
Arctic Flight: Ignore last start and look to first up in much harder class where 0.8L 3rd. Ran a very brave race and can improve today. Weighted very well. Barrier draw annoyingly poor but can work across.
Muchos Respectos: Good first up win but this is a big class step up today. WIll still run well.
Tigress Joy: Huge win off 60kg last start over the 1100m.. Should be suited today by 1200m but will be hard to come hard late. Will still be coming!
Louisville Dancer: Two big runs this prep behind horses that have progressed. From barrier 2 may sit slightly further forward today and be there ready to hug the rails at the finish.
Backen Lay: Needs to improve big time today. Happy to avoid.
Falconer: Big maiden win first up. Has the ability to progress and win today but this will be a big ask.
Prety Almaher:  Outclassed in this race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 6, 9, 11

Moonee Valley Race 7
Under The Leaner: Unlucky not to win first up behind Peninsula Dane and something just didn’t work last start. If produces best, can go very close.
Fringed: Weighted very harshly today. Won very well last start. Can improve but is up against it.
Jarrah Twist: Off weight needs to improve today.
Magnus Reign: Resumed well this start. May get a little far back today but has a good chance.
General Groove: Impressive win first up for us in much easier class at $9. Measures up on 2YO form and from barrier 4 maps well into it today.
Shambles Street: Was ok last prep and if trained on will run very well. Has a good chance.
Tiger’s Cub: Looks outclassed.
Laohu: Nice win first up but has to improve a few lengths today.
Vicario: Ignore last start in much harder company. Has the ability to win today by going forward.
Office Bearer: Moody stable runner who won well in a very easy race first up. Can go close today but needs to run a much faster time.
Assertive Miss: Average win first up. Can’t have.
Righteous Ruler: Happy to be against today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 6, 9, 11

Moonee Valley Race 8
Snitza: Never won at distance and only ever ran a 2nd (at track). Never won at track but has won once in class. Needs to improve today.
Nice and Neat: Good run last start but this is a harder race once again. On weights is in it.
Danz Boy: Up in class again today but has won many races at distance and won at track. Could go close.
Testaguy: On first two runs this prep looks outclassed.
Tube: Finally broke through this prep. Is a horse that slowly trains on and then starts to win deep into preps. Will be going out front and be hard to run down. Big chance.
Verification: Never won at distance from 9 starts but should run much better today in this class. Will need a super run to factor.
Alrouz: Very good win two back and ran on very well last start at Flemington. Will be in this at the finish.
Grand Sunday: Super disappointing first up. Never won or placed second up before. Looking for longer it seems.
Meteor Shower: Brave run first up at course and distance. Barrier one today and will be going forward again weighted nicely. Up 1kg today but will be there at the end.
Northern Jet: Will be too far back again today but will be given another nice ride.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 5, 7, 9, 11

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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