Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Friday 2 November

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to our Friday Night Moonee Valley form. Last weekend didn’t go as well as we hoped even though our best value in Freereturn got our day off to a flyer at $10s. It was never going to be a fairy tale when we heard Daryl Braithwaite was not going to be singing The Horses at Cox Plate day. This looks to be a fairly tricky card with a number of races with a few good chances. Don’t go over the top tonight, save your money for the Group races tomorrow at Flemington.

Best Bet
Race 6 Sabres

Best Value
Nothing sticks out tonight at a price.

Best Lay
Race 4 Barysh Quest

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Extra: Solid first up run three months ago. Horse that beat him home was Treaty who ran unplaced behind Norzita next start. Will go forward again today from barrier 3 and be hard to pass if trained on.
General Groove: Was very immature first prep when nearly won in much harder company. Four and a bit months off, should have improved and be able to run this out with no hassles. Speedmaps well from barrier 5 and Newitt should be able to control him today.
I’m Corleone: Short priced favourite first up when blocked for fun and beaten by 3L. Needs to find much more today up 2kg.
Inkjet Sprinter: Looks outclassed on previous runs
Jeepers Creepers: Strong form lines behind a good thing in Seven Degrees. Will run a strong race today but needs to find a length or two.
Real Boost: Outclassed on previous runs
Shoalhaven: Full brother to Rushworth who is a handy 3YO. Half-sister was useless. Beaten in a barrier trial and looks to need the run.
Sommelier Pete: First up form 1.5L behind Awesome Bro is a strong form line but beaten 5M by a very good thing first up. Needs to improve today but has the ability.
The Originator: Half-sister has fairly average form lines. Interesting Oliver booking out of Kavanagh yard. Could surprise.
Confidence 65%

Moonee Valley Race 2
Sensational Report: Down in class and up to 60kg. Will be going back once again and off this weight compared to others in the race will need to produce something very big. Won once from 20 starts in class and once from 10 starts at track. Look elsewhere.
Outdoor: 5.5L behind Barbie Dazzler two runs back and is up 1.5kg today while Barbie is down 1kg from that run. Jumped a $2.90 favourite last start and was super disappointing losing by 2L. Has the ability but on weights can’t have here.
Tranquera: Ignore last start of Tranquera where was still game to the line in much harder company. Down to a very respectable weight here today and has progressed nicely this prep. Will be going back but could get a very lucky run on the rails and hit the line hard.
Hollywood: Returned nicely this prep but this is a step up again. From barrier one will position out the front with speed map suggesting could take up the running. Off the weights will certainly be hard to run down.
Help: As the horses name suggests, she needs all the help she can get here today. A good second two back and a nice win last start, this is a big step up in grade. The times suggest she can run well but does look outclassed.
Prussian Dancer: The last three runs have been fairly sloppy not getting within 2.5L. Hall on board is a good start to get the horse back on track. Needs to find another length or two today.
Confidence 75%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Dreaming the Dream: Some fairly poor timed maidens but one was on heavy. Does need to produce more to win today.
Falconer: Looking to break through today after five months off and some fairly strong runs in first prep. From barrier four has every chance.
Gilgandra Jack: Went very close on a slow ground first up at Cranbourne and should improve on today.
God’s Will: Much stronger run last start but needs to improve again today to stand a chance.
Hollywood Gothic: Chucked in the deep end first up and actually ran VERY well 2L behind Sea Lord. Will improve from that run and go close today.
Canto: Ran 3rd in a trial. Full brother is useless but half sister classics has won 142k and other half-sister Tampiko 262k. Could be classy on breeding.
More Than a Song: Nothing produced yet in the blood line. No guides here.
Red Hot Shot: Full brother Regalio has won over 100k in prize money but hasn’t in a decent race. May go well on breeding.
Lustful: 0.8L two preps back behind It’s Crunch Time looks strong but on the previous two runs doesn’t rate well here. 5 months off will need to have improved 3 lengths.
Manhattan Gold: Keeps going close but can’t run a fast time.
La Fluorescent: Market only guide as no brothers or sisters.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 4
Akzar: Big run in a much harder class last start and off 58kg after claim looks suited here today. Will go close.
Lethal Dealings: Seems to be looking for this type of distance after win at Pakenham last start. Down 3.5kg from that run but certainly up in class today. Can go close but does look to be slightly outclassed.
Barysh Quest: Has been looking for a step up to this distance where he is 1 win 1 place from 2 starts. Newitt booked for ride is promising although the previous two runs have seen him produce nothing. Needs to improve.
Testas Double: Much easier class than last few runs but hasn’t shown anything this prep. Happy to be against even with 3 wins from 5 starts at track and 3 wins from 7 at distance.
Quick Shakes: A nice strong run in the Horsham Cup. Weighted nicely today and can go forward or back. Will need to improve but has ability.
Sean Baile Mor: A mare that was talked up as having a lot of ability last prep but didn’t fire. Has been fairly poor this prep also. Back in class today but on previous runs can’t have here.
Apres: Strong win two back in much easier class with the two previous runs also strong. Forgive last start and can go well today.
Clang and Bang: Went close in the Horsham Cup and can go even closer today. Best weighted horse in the race down to 52kg down in class and will be super hard to hold out going forward from barrier 8.
Magic Pulse: Won 3 from last 4 with two over this distance. Will be going close again today.
Eleuther: Strong for lines but didn’t produce good enough runs the last two starts. Weighted nicely but from barrier 10 can’t have today.
Confidence 85%

Moonee Valley Race 5
Locke’s Choice: A very solid run last start from the front at Sale. Barrier 12 will make it hard to go forward today especially with the speed in the race. Does look suited with 57.5kg to go close. Has never won at MV before from 6 starts.
Paaratte Pat: A horse with a load of ability. Last prep ran a super fast 55.9 to win over 1000m by 4L leading from start to finish. First up this prep in equal class won well on slow. Looks more suited to a dead/good ground and will go very close today.
Stratumspehere: Good win two back but failed due to track condition last start. Happy to be against today at the price.
Cyclone Andy: A horse with a load of ability who if trained on will run very well today. Arnold is a solid rider and will give a good ride. Could be value.
Peninsula Dane: Nice win first up in an easier race by 2L. Slots in nicely today with Oliver on board. Never won at track from 3 starts but has the ability.
Henwood: Was very progressive last prep breaking his maiden title and also finishing with a 1.8L win at Bendigo. Up in class here today up 2.5kg. Rodd booked is a bonus. Will need a bit of luck or a lot of class to come from where he will be in the run.
Shiny and New: Nice win last start but needs massive improvement to win again here today. Barrier 1 will mean she gets a nice position and given every chance.
TheBarwonPrince: Last prep just kept on producing and going close. Won 2 from 6 first up and has placed 4 from 5 at track. Never won at Class is a major issue and will most likely be sitting too far back today.
La Bella Roo: Needs to improve 2L here today from 57kg.
Arkiboum: 3L win first up in a MUCH easier class race in a very poor time.. has to find much more today.
Suvarna: Never won in class from 10 starts but does have a nice 2w 1 place from 5 first up. Placed 2 from 4 at track and isn’t the worst in the race. Will be going forward from wide out.
Rockshaft: Once a horse with a load of ability bit on last start run can’t have.
The Counterfeiter: On past two runs needs to find a few lengths. Has produced a strong run this prep 5 runs back but the form hasn’t held up.
Grippet: Will be going forward from the outside barrier today. Can set a solid tempo and will be there at the end.
Raks Mclaren: Spelled for 190 days after winning first two starts. Needs to run faster times today than those two runs.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 3, 5, 6, 7

Moonee Valley Race 6
Sabres: A super win at Geelong by Sabres. Was a very gutsy win. Given an extra 2kg here today and Arnold takes the ride. Suited by barrier three and obviously suited by Moonee Valley. Won 2 from 3 at distance and won 1 from 2 at Track. Handles any condition track. Will put on a fast tempo and be super hard to pass.
Snitza: On previous runs last prep Snitza seems to be looking for further than the 1600m. That being said, has been off nearly a year and this is a much weaker race than what he was competing strongly in. Has run well at course before and also at distance. Will go forward and be there at the end if trained on well.
Allanthus: Never won second up and looks to be wanting further. Weighted nicely for this class but only won twice from 32 starts at class.
Angelology: First start after 5 months off over from New Zealand. Suited by the distance on previous form and won in class before. Weighted nicely.
Eight Cards: Disappointing run last start and 2kg swing doesn’t seem enough.
Street Crier: Strong run in the Horsham Cup. On previous two runs behind in form Sertorius can go very close. Don’t discount at all today.
Meteor Shower: Up in class today but down to 52kg. Weighted to win here even if horse lines are not super impressive. Will get a nice sit and if gets out at the right time could strike.
Northern Jet: Vet exam first two starts this prep. Seems to not have progressed after 7 months off. Needs to find more today.
Dangarway: Never won at distance and never placed in class from 3 starts. Needs to improve head and shoulders today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 4, 7

Moonee Valley Race 7
Arch Fire: A simple forgive run last start at Bendigo. Will slot in nicely today and be hard to hold out.
Quick Bond: Doesn’t seem to be wanting the extra 500m on last few runs. 2kg claim will help. Interestingly 2nd to Puissance De Lune after Wednesday’s win seems a very good form line to follow. May be the one to beat.
Lucky Angel: Given every chance last start at Geelong but not good enough. Does rate well here today and will sit close to the speed from barrier 4.
Savour That: Outclassed unless finds something we haven’t seen the last three starts.
Orbicat: Much haredr race today but the form lines are strong for Orbicat. Two back win off 60kg at Geelong by 3L was in a very strong time on Slow. If reproduced wins here.
Amber Grey: Outclassed on last two runs.
Gold Lining: Nice strong run behind Orbicat last start. Has to find more but could go close today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 3, 5, 7

Moonee Valley Race 8
Florets: Form around Honey Flower has been holding up recently and if you look to two previous runs, Florets is going to be very hard to beat today. From barrier one will get a VERY nice run and after claim jumps from 56kg. Suited by this distance and weight.
Classic Elle: One win one place first up previous and is 1 win 3 places at track and 2 wins 1 place from distance. A super consistent mare who just keeps producing strong runs. Much weaker company than what she is used to today and the 2.8L run behind Moment of Change last prep does look strong. Will struggle to slot into a good position early is the only issue from the wide barrier.
Our Mimi: Ignore last start where got FAR back and was blocked for run and was lame after race. May probably get blocked again here but previous three runs were all solid. Will be swooping late.
And Rock: Stepped up last run in Adelaide and down 4kg from that run today. Needs to improve but can run close here today.
Lady Antebellum: One of our favourites who can be ridden more forward than the speed map suggests. They have been trying to position further back than previously this prep which has resulted in two decent runs. Up to 1200m today and should position slightly further forward with cover than previous two runs. Could go very close.
Aneto: Strong 3YO form and can run strong here today.
Incredulous: Poor run last start and looks outclassed today.
More Than Smooth: Has the ability but would need to produce something special to win here today.
Ombra Sierra: Had nearly a year off and came back strong. First step up into city and will struggle even with 52kg.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 4, 6

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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