Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Friday 21 December

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome back to night two at Moonee Valley.. or as last night was, Money Valley. Suspect a few bookies have gone to the bank today to secure a loan after they were cleaned out. Our Best Bet last night got up at $3.80 and our next best at $4.40 if you got the early money ($3.70ish later on). Remember to follow up on twitter as we tweeted when the price was posted! So what did we learn from last night that can be brought forward to tonight? As normal at Moonee Valley, there was a clear rail Bias. If your horse was good enough and was given the rail, it was very very very hard to run down! Both our best bets found the rail, hit the front and just stuck on to win well. Look to be on a horse out the front or if good enough form, close to the front (no more than 2-3 back). Good luck and as always, we hope our form matches up with yours!

Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 And Rock

Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Lady Krovanh

Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 5 Dimi The Dancer

Best Lay
Moonee Valley Race 6 Point Made

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Abdaan: Top rated and will be hard to beat today. Ran a strong race last start at Caulfield behind King Krovanh who is a handy horse. Noonan road her four runs back to a nice victory and can do it again today. Barrier 5 means will position in a handy spot… may even try take up the running with the way the rail played last night. One to beat.
Evens: Showed a lot of promise last start at Caulfield in equal class and weight when 3rd 0.2L. Up 160m today which should only help. From barrier 2 will go forward and take a sit.
Perfect Offering: Ran 0.7L behind Evens at Caulfield last start coming from the back of the field. Meets Evens 3.5KG better today at the weights and has the ability to win here. Should appreciate the extra distance on breeding out of Dubawi. Set for this race and will never be too far back in such a small field. Big chance.
Wicked Enchantress: Weighted poorly and will struggle to make up that 1.7L on Evens today or 1L on Perfect Offering.
Just Bonnie: Didn’t show enough any run this prep to suggest a win.
Confidence 75%

Moonee Valley Race 2
Master Troll: First two runs at Geelong showed nothing. Can’t have today on any of those runs.
More Bling: Showed enough to suggest has improvement first up but not in this class.
Runs for Fun: Has gone close twice this prep with 1L and 1.5L away (one of those was last start). Gauci could be the difference today. Can give great rides. May just not find enough today from barrier 8.
Battle Pact: Half-brother seems to be fairly unless at 4YO having won a total of $400 from 6 races. Even after that information, is with Hayes and you can never write off a Lonhro bread horse. Arnold could give a good ride and simply just win.
Choisziata: Looks to be a promising Gelding. Won a trial by 1.3L with breeding not telling us much. Barrier 1 to suit and get a very solid run. Looks the one to beat.
Tuned In: Beaten 0.8L first up in a slowly run race. The horse that ran 3rd came out last start and also ran 3rd again (winner not raced yet since win). Looks to have ability but this looks a step up again today.
She’s Ellie: Not sure that she is Elite like her name suggests. Beaten 0.3L last start by a horse who has had 15 starts since for 0 wins (has gone twice quite a few times). Has shown enough to suggest could win today but will need to have trained on very well. Will be sitting forward like we want her to.
Madam Petite: First filly from Zancudo. Market only guide. Not very keen this one.
Confidence 60%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Bouledogue: Not the worst run first up but got away with murder up front and still couldn’t win. Hard to have today even though barrier 1 and will try take up lead. Will find more pressure today.
Colicchio: Didn’t show alot in trial when unplaced and half-brother doesn’t have any good form.
Game of Thrones: Very average first up in much harder grade. 5 months off and down in class, could find a good run today. Market is your guide for this one.
Hard Romp: Nice run two back, but disappointed last start over the 950. Looks to be better suited to a slower run race over the 1200m today and down in class (down 1.5kg) looks absolutely suited. Hard to beat.
Mandla: Form of 2nd behind Fire Thunderbolt first up is always nice to go from but lost a $1.50 favourite second up and up in grade last start ran a handy 4th. Has the ability to win today from the 6th barrier.
Prince Stratum: Nice form lines behind the likes of Crystal Web and Elite Elle (2.3L both of them). Didn’t show as much as expected first up at Mornington last start but will have trained on. Can run very well.
Regan: Market your only guide. Hawkes stable is flying so may get backed hard late.
Sunburnt Lad: Market only guide. Not a huge fan of gear first up.
Rasmeyaa: Full sister not the worst going around having ran 2nd to Gonski Girl and Asheerah (Beat Juliet’s Princess) in early days (4th at Flemington also). With Hayes yard and 1.5kg from Lane is a massive advantage. Barrier 5, if goes forward, could threaten.
Winta Chiller: Solid run at Sale first up. Will improve again and go close.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 4
Ivory Cross: Super ride and win last start at the Valley. Course and distance again today from barrier 3, deserves to be the favourite. Up 5kg but down in class big time. May be wanting a little rain tomorrow to make it dead again.
Doctor Hill: Progressive type out of the Smerdon yard. Has the ability to win today if finds best.
Aggregator: Been winning in lesser grade. Step up once again today but Kent wouldn’t send here without thinking he had a chance.
Andronica: Strong second to Akzar last start in Adelaide in much harder class at distance. Off 56kg today which looks very respectable. Akzar dead-heated last night in a much harder race than this. Only issue is that she will be sitting far back.
Ingalla Angel: Weighted to win today. Meets Doctor Hill 4.5kg better off today when ran 0.3L second last start. Has shown enough ability to be a threat today off this low weight.
Hold For Applause: Down in class again today but hasn’t shown enough to suggest that the 2500m can be ran out for the win. Gauci is the only positive for this ride, he does have the ability to turn horses into stars with perfect front rides.
Readings: May have found an easy race last start with only 5 runners. Happy to remove that form and look to previous runs. Has some ability but off 53.5k may still need to find another 2-3L.
Try Pickle: Good run last start in much easier company. 52kg today looks nice but has to find a lot more on previous runs against tougher horses.
Dance Crew: Doesn’t look good enough today off weights.
Confidence 75%

Moonee Valley Race 5
Diamonds at Dusk: Hasn’t won a race since 2009, but did threaten last prep. Weighted nicely today but doesn’t look to be the right horse for this race.
Night Moves: Front runner who loves a strong tempo. Weighted nicely today back in class from barrier 2. Will be hitting the front and be VERY hard to pass.
Dimi The Dancer: Won very well three back from start to finish in lesser grade. Since then has gone backwards. If produces that run three back, does win, if not, hard to have off 59kg from barrier 6 (can’t see him getting the front).
Jacopo: Down from Darwin didn’t go well first up here but at Geelong last start ran well start to finish 2nd. Can go well but not keen here.
Suvarna: Big win two back and then progressive once again last start. Weighted very well today and from barrier 8 will be going forward early like many.. Has the ability.
Ready As Elle: Won 2 of last 5 with 2 seconds by 0.1L in other races. Runs consistent times and off 54kg has a chance.. but isn’t for me here today.
TheBarwonPrince: Ran well enough last start to suggest getting back to best but has to find more today.
Wee Mac: Poor last start but on previous form has a chance.
Black Jack Boy: Form not strong enough, but off 52.5kg, may be hitting the line hard.
Monsieur Pierre: Hasn’t shown enough to win today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 6

Moonee Valley Race 6
Beer Garden: Wasn’t disgraced last start. Down in class today and down 0.5kg after claim. Has ability but needs to show a lot more today.
Gold Viper: Can’t win on form this prep.
Henshaw: Suspect Henshaw is looking for a longer straight on 3 back 4th to Sertorius. May surprise toda due to down in grade and 56.5kg but will probably find it hard to get a win today. Last win was at 1460m.
Luckycent: Disappointing last start in a much harder race (to be fair) when 2.8L off. Run two back behind Cry In Awe reads as solid form with Cry In Awe running 2L second to Apres last start here (Beer Garden was 4.3L behind Apres).
Now and Zen: Short priced favourite for no real good reason last start at course and distance and was found out ridden a little too fast out front by the apprentice jockey Sadler. Rawiller hopefully gives him a slower ride today and can get to that line. Has all of the ability to win this race.
Zuma Roc: Hard horse to rate today. 1.8L 3rd to Whisper Downs in much harder company this prep is decent form but may not simply handle these large weights (58kg today). Didn’t show enough last start to suggest will win today.
Fabriano: Has to find a few more lengths today to have a chance.
Heez Nortorious: Progressive this prep finding best two back in much easier company. This does look a stretch today.
Point Made; Not the worst in the race. Suspect they will put him up short but can’t see the price being value at all. Weighted ok today but hasn’t shown enough to suggest will be winning..
Street Eclipse: Decent run last start but has to show much more today.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 5, 7, 11

Moonee Valley Race 7
Kimiko: Progressive type winning two of last three. Barrier 11 but expect her to go to the front again today. Claim of 3kg handy to 57kg. Times ran are fairly slow compared to what is average at this track but this is a lower than normal rated race. Can win.
Mauritius: Hard horse to rate. Previous run runs suggest no chance today, but three back run shows can run ok.
Queenera: Won a very easy race two back and wasn’t disgraced last start at Sandown in harder company. Three back decent form behind Empress Zakynthos. Claiming 3kg today, can run well as long as gets in from barrier 13 (questionable).
Lady Krovanh: 4.3L 3rd to Silent Achiever in 3YO-GP2 seems decent form to me!!! Hasn’t raced in 8 months but was going well in this class at this distance. Off 57.5kg, should be winning this out of Moody yard.
Amalgamate: Showed enough form previously to suggest can run strongly at this distance today. Big issue is that she will be sitting far back. On last start can run well.
Bona Fides: Hard to see her winning from barrier 14 today off this weight.
Arboreta: Nice win last start but doesn’t seem progressive enough to win today.
Princess Mossman: Good 2nd to Champagne Ruby last start. Down in class but not poorly weighted after claim. Can run a good race.
Spelldancer: Not good enough to win this today at weights.
Chicago Miss: Form around a few runners in this race. Weighted nicely but will need to produce a better run today to be in with a chance.
Come By Sunday: Never too far off the win in all starts this prep. Finally got the maiden win and ran well last start. Has to find much more today though.
ClarabelleJoel: Has ability but not in this class.
Angela’s Dream: Just keeps finding a few too good for herself and has cost us a fair bit recently. Get a decent run from barrier 4 but this track doesn’t suit her.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 4, 8

Moonee Valley Race 8
And Rock: Super form lines as you know. Had as our best value last Saturday until scratched. From barrier 5 will get a very nice run and with Lady Antebellum winning last Friday in much harder company than this, the form lines look super. 58.5kg looks to still be a gift.
Midnight Pearl: First up off a distance that seems to be too short for her these days. Barrier 3 will give a nice run.
Spin The Bottle: Progressive horse. Not sure I really rate a win over Bia Diamond (many horses done that recently) but off 57kg will certainly be running well. Barrier 10 a slight issue.
Aces and Angels: Found out last start at Caulfield and back in class today. Weights a little harsh today IMO. Will try and go forward from barrier 12 it seems.
Miss Zoom: Shown enough in lesser grades but off 59.5kg may find a few too classy today. Barrier 4 is the one advantage and can go forward.
Music Shop: One of the main threats today. Big win last start over Valrouz which was very unexpected on previous form.. Up in class today but still weighted nicely. Needs to find a spot from barrier 9.
Belaruski: Ran second to Music Shop 0.2L and today meets 2kg better off. Barrier 14 the major issue. One of the many to have a win over Bia Diamond!
Queen’s Ransom: Didn’t show enough last start sitting far back in the field. Will go forward today again and be able to show best. One to watch at a nice price.
You Can Dance: Good runs last prep with 2nd to Spot on Maggie to name in similar class to this. Nole on board and will give a strong ride.
First Print: Can run well weighted well today. May just be too far back though.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 4, 8, 10

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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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