Welcome to The Profits Friday night form for Moonee Valley. Last week was certainly a ‘so close’ week. Tuscan Fire went painfully close at $8 as the Best Value pick run down in the final 20 metres, but the punters who took the $2.50 place were never worried. The next best in Avoid Lightning won as expected at a nice time and franks a fair bit of form for this weekend. Tonight’s bets are of lower confidence than normal with very average races to bet into. We will be on course so check our twitter for updates during the night. On a bright note, there seems to be a few good races tomorrow. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Race 3 Manila Jewel
Race 8 Delegance to Place
Race 6 Day Procedure to Place
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Grand Ducal: Down in class today but up 5kg. Hasn’t shown anything this prep so hard to be on today at all. Never placed from 3 starts at track or twice at distance.
High Kingczar: Good win at distance three runs back in equal class at Sandown but since down has put in two fairly poor runs at the track over 2500m. Equal weight today and if produces the run of three back, can go close.
Platinum Jack: Good run up in Sydney two back in much easier class and then failed last start at Kembla. Weighted ok today but this does look much harder today.
Phizup: Good win last start in easier company. Will be sitting further forward today than run at Sandown and is a big hope today. 1 win 1 place at this distance.
Toranos: Up against it big time on weights today compared to Phizup. Can’t have on that alone.
Sexy Magic: Not the worst run last start but doesn’t seem to have enough progression for this today.
Steiglitz: Not good enough.
Strategy: Fairly average race at best. Doesn’t look to be a great race to bet into at all, but if I was to touch anything here, it would be Phizup to place, but we still don’t know how the prices for the race will turn out.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Best In Town: First prep ran some very solid races but the owners may have gotten the horses name incorrect. This looks much harder today but if trained on can run well.
Venomous Clive: Solid runs last two starts but times suggest outclassed.
Prince Of Perilla: Breeding is VERY strong. Four brother/sisters with all four having competed in city class with all four placed in city (we are talking Morphetville, Caulfield, Warwick Farm etc). Love to see the horse in the yard before I put any money around it.
Rubens: Ran nicely first up but will be too far back today on speed maps.
Star Darci: Breeding seems to be average, but market and yard will guide.
Catered: Will be getting a little too far back today it seems and better suited by 1400m, but has the ability if gets a lot of luck.
Lonhspresso: Big run last start but will be getting far back from barrier 14. Needs luck.
Pitch Perfect: Will be sitting forward enough to contest today but times suggest this may be a little hard.
Young Girl: Hard to see her winning this today after not being able to win last start.
Khatam: Newitt booked, but looks to find this tough.
Our Swagman: Not good enough.
Mighty Light: Has shown promise but this is much harder than what he has previous been up against.
La Reve: Good first up run but times don’t look good enough.
Strategy: Not very keen on this race until I see the price Prince of Perilla is put up and how he looks in the yard.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Manila Jewel: Looked to be back to her best last start at Flemington running 2nd behind Lucky Angel. Down 2kg today in equal class with Schofield claiming and from barrier 3 will get a very solid run. Big chance today.
Classic Elle: An excuse horse that is due a win. Down in class today and off 55kg seems to be giving the horse a fair leg up on weights. The issue is that she just keeps getting back in races and needs luck. Has never raced over 2000m before but should get the distance.
Aliberani: Up in class today after a nice mid-week run and seems to be suited by the extra distance. Key form lines to follow with last start 3rd to Gogonski and Durnford who came out and franked the form.
Crystalised: Poor last start at course, distance and class. Down 1kg today but on previous run will find it fairly hard, even from barrier 2.
Princess Mossman: Average at best last start and will find it hard to turn around the two back form behind Crystalised.
Pentimento: Not good enough on first two runs this prep. Gets too far back.
Sophie’s Tryst: Not the worst in this race. Does look very much outclassed today but was an ok run two back.
Strategy: As the market suggests there are four chances in this race. We are happy to bet around Classic Elle who just keeps finding ways to lose and the horse who looks best speed mapped here today is Manila Jewel who can control the speed, get away with murder up front and use the rail to find an extra length or two to win today.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Chill Joy: Hard to see the progression to win here today.
Commander Bond: Can’t see enough from last few runs to suggest a win.
Make Us Richo: Weighted nicely today but first run this prep was average at best.
Solsbury Hill: Breeding looks to be average. Market will guide.
Great Game: Keeps finding one too good for him, but last start run was very very strong. Hard to beat today from barrier 1.
Pleasant Harmony: Can’t have on first two runs.
Willis: Decent breeding but market will be your guide. Trial was ok.
Aubaine Bel: Not good enough on last four runs to win this.
Merging: Not good enough here.
Panarea: Not good enough.
Strategy: Great Game should be winning this today. It all comes down to the price and how the first starts look in the yard.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Shamal Wind: You would expect from barrier 1 that she will try and kick up and lead today. There are concerns that she might not have the gate speed to lead this up and get stuck on the rail, I suspect not. Either way, she is better than the rest of these with 3 legs, but it is all about the jump.
Lady Antebellum: To have a chance here you would like to see her go more forward today (keeps missing the start). Not the worst form lines going around and won at course, distance and class two back in strong times.
Zippa The Rippa: 1.3L 3rd to Sumakaray two back is fairly strong form and could run well today.
Chinzia: Not a chance on previosu runs.
Lil Red Corvette: 6 months off. Times don’t suggest an upset is in order from her today.
Lamingtons: Not good enough on last two runs.
Arrogant Cat: Good win last start but this is 10 grade better.
Gold Rust: No.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2
Strategy: You would need to give me $1.60 to back Shamal Wind here. Lady Antebellum looks to be the value of the race for a place.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Day Procedure: Off 56.5kg today back in class big time. Won at course and in this class over 950m three back and will be pushing forward. Speedmaps suggest it will be hard to take the front but I expect him to take the front today compared to last start where Beriman didn’t get to push over.
Delagos: Up in class again today and up 1.5kg for that. Hard to see him winning this on that alone. Only positive is 2/2 at distance.
Grand Emperor: Very strong form lines. Back from 2YO class today after 8 months off. Has some ok times to his name but first up today has to step it up again.
Agulhas: Was suited by a change in strategy last start taking a sit at Flemington. Looked suited by the long straight when 2nd to Spending who then failed last start. Down 3kg today looks very strong.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Progressive type who is weighted nicely today but meets a few good horses that look too classy for her.
Later Gator: Some fairly strong form lines with a 4L win over Longport, 1L 3rd behind Epaulette, 1.5L behind Ichihara to her name before failing in the Slipper. Been off 8 months and will be hard to beat if runs best. Only issue is where she sits which looks to be about 6th.
Commentawi: Not here.
Yellow Jersey: Not up to this.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 6
Strategy: One of the hardest races of the night. The speedmap is very tricky. Day Procedure is the only of the three main hopes that will position in the first four for mine with Grand Emperor and Later Gator looking to sit further back here (although later could push up but speedmaps suggest they won’t). If Day Procedure gets a good jump and gets the lead or outside the leader, he will be very hard to pass. Place price looks value 3 places on betfair.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Elms: Down in class today but hasn’t fired a shot this prep. Hard to see the improvement today even though he is best over this distance.
Full Hand: Been putting in solid runs this prep but just finding a few too good. Should have won last start and is off equal weight today. May appreciate the extra 400m today but that is a BIG unknown.
Fabriano: Will be sitting too far back today for our liking off the weights.
Darwin: Good win last start and ran well before that. Down in class (not much) but up 4kg today. Has to find another level.
Sir Anthony: Very average last start in lesser company but should be better suited to a Good track. Has ability but needs to find a length or two more today.
Crystal Icon: Meets Darwin much better off at weights today but even with that form, may find it hard to get the win today.
Hula Lua: Showed enough ability last prep over the 2000m+ to suggest can run a solid race today. Only concern is how far back she will be.
Lady Krovanh: Suited by the up in distance to 2000m today but has been very disappointing the last two starts. May be looking for a Good track as has 2 wins from 2.
Princess Rock: Good run last start and BIG chance today. Form lines suggest best at this distance and the one to beat today.
Railblazer: Good start to finish win last start. Needs to improve today but times were solid.
Fresh Light: Didn’t handle leading up last start and will take a sit today instead. Good form lines but needs to find a few more lengths off this weight.
Quaddie leg three: 3, 8, 9, 10, 11
Strategy: Many runners here today with a chance but there are two that stand out. It all comes down to prices we get in this race and how well runners in similar distance races early in the meeting run on as our will be sitting midfield.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Tumbulgum: Has been cleaning up in the country recently and will be pushing forward to mount an assault going to the line. Big chance, but you do have to wonder how strong the country form is.
Pronto Pronto: Off for 3 months. Never ran a place from 2 starts first up but those runs would have been in much harder class than this today. Big issue is never placed from 1 start at distance and seems to be a 1400m horse.
My Survivor: Doesn’t look up to this class but last start run was promising.
Rifleman: BIG win last start at distance and class. Only up 0.5kg today and should be pushing forward.
Delegance: Fairly average first up when didn’t stay on very well BUT is down 6kg today and up in class. Never won second up but the 1000m is much better than 950m for pace. From barrier one will be hard to head.
Intreeg: Weighted nicely today but will find it hard to take the lead. Others look better.
Lone Star: Weighted better today against My Survivor but doesn’t look classy enough for this.
Planet Voyage: Has won first up previously. Has been off 5 months. Placed 6 from 7 in this class and 7 from 8 at distance. Very strong runner who should position well and be hard to beat.
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 8
Strategy: It is hard to pass up Delegance tonight on the weight from barrier one. Will kick up and lead and be very hard to pass. Key to this race is if the rail in the sprints is playing out very well, if so, then that extra length or two, plus the 6kg weight advantage today will be the key. Rifleman looks the main danger while Planet Voyage could have trained on very well (but doesn’t map as good as Delegance).
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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