Horse Racing Form – Moonee Valley – Thursday 20 December

Horse Racing - Australia

Thursday night races at Moonee Valley mean only one thing, Christmas is nearly upon us! With a Thursday and Friday card at MV this week, it will be interesting to see how the ground plays with the rail out 7 metres. The first two races are really the guide this evening and may set the tempo for tomorrow as well (will certainly shape our form). As always, we hope your form matches up with ours, don’t bet every race, and most importantly, good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 5 Day Procedure

Next Best
Race 7 Lamingtons

Best Value
Race 7 Manor Lady

Best Lay
Race 2 Star of Jeune

Please note that our ‘Next Best’ and ‘Best Value’ are both in the same race. It is hard to see anything outside of these two winning. Both have great form lines, will speed map nicely and are weighted well. It is also hard to get a guide on the market 18 hours out from the race with not all the prices being posted yet.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Moonee Valley Race 1
Danarule: Has key form lines behind Emergency Ward last start at course and distance. From barrier 1 will be going forward again and be very hard to pass. Only issue the rail.
True Brave: Disappointed last start from the back of the field. Expect a closer to the front run today.
Optical Illusion: Two back ran a solid race from the front. From barrier 7 is expected to push forward again. May find a few too good today.
Drink Me: Looks outclassed.
Oakford Lass: The same form line from last start as Danarule. Got a very strong run during the race and from barrier 8 will be pushing forward and in once again. May find it harder today to get a good spot, but has the ability to win today. Big chance.
Green Roller: First up run not the worst form behind Adjuster. Weighted well enough to improve today.
I’m Wicked: Ran on strongly last start and looks to be wanting the 1600m. Only issue is position in race.
Shivers: Need to find more today.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 2
Akzar: Good win last start over in Adelaide and down in class big time today. Weighted to win. Only issue is didn’t run well here last run but previous to that solid. A question mark over the 3000m, but handled the 2500m so no issue for me. Mc Cabe not the best jockey around though.
Star of Jeune: Solid run last start 4L 2nd. Has to find more today to beat Akzar but should go well.
Geeceegazza: Big step up in class today. Won well last start. Must find 4-5L to win here.
St Roper: Will appreciate the extra distance but looks outclassed today.
Le Point: Good maiden win last start but needs a much easier class race than this.
East Verses West: Ran 0.3L behind Star of Jeune last start yet is $12 compared to $2.35. Certainly the value of the race and from barrier 1 will get another strong run.
Confidence 75%

Moonee Valley Race 3
Always and Always: Shown nothing last prep and is 5YO now. Needs to have found new legs.
Circadian: Couldn’t last out on a slowly run 1200m. No thanks.
Lindana: Not the worst run first up. Could run better today but fancy others.
Rainbow Dane: Barrier 2 suits to take a nice sit today. Ran on very well last start and will be one of the horses to beat.
She’s Got Grunt: Barrier 1 with Gauci on board and will be looking for the lead. If the rail plays out to be a strong advantage in race one then She’s going to go close. Hard to be against today although up 1.5kg may be the difference.
Tinderbel: Hard to know what to make of her form. Doesn’t seem suited by the 1200m
Waldorf: Looks to have ability on first two runs, but just hasn’t settled in running. Will be sitting a little too far back from barrier 6 today for my liking unless the first race suits the outside lanes around the corner.
Gold Heist: Market is your only guide here. Rawiller on board always a good factor out of Kent yard. Half-brother won 140k in racing career.
Metro Park: Strongly breed half-brother to Gnarly who looks to be set for decent wins this prep. Arnold booked is always strong and barrier 4 a bonus. Market will be your guide again and same with how it looks in the ring.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 4
Midnight Fury: Looks to be a swimmer with her only win on heavy. Hugely down in class today but hasn’t been showing enough previously. 6 months off so may have trained on enough to win today.. but find it hard off the weight knowing she will be sitting at the back of the field.
Papillon: Suited from barrier 3 today claiming 3kg. A few months off and should be able to run a solid race. Issue is her consistancy.
Octavia: Super front running win second up this prep and was solid at Caulfield last start running 3rd to a handy horse in Miss Softhands. Claiming 3kg today down to 55.5kg. Will put in a solid run.
Nella Fantasia: Progressive type who needs to find more again today off 55kg.
Noisette: An excuse horse. You are sure to get another excuse after this run.
Paris Secrets: Times too poor for here today and already beaten by Octavia two back easily.
Schussing: Outclassed.
Zarzing: Probably the most interesting runner. Never a chance two back and won a maiden last start from start to finish. Looks held on weights but has ability.
Confidence 70%

Moonee Valley Race 5
Day Procedure: Progressive type who can front run today. 58.5kg after claim with one of the leading apprentices on board. Didn’t seem to enjoy a slow ground last start last prep but two before that over the 1000m was super winning by 2L in much harder company. From barrier 3 can take the lead and never be headed.
Tabasco Force: After first up loss just keeps progressing. Won the 950 at course and distance last start in a solid time. Up in class today and down 0.5kg after claim. From barrier 5 will most likely get a nice position outside of Day Procedure and be there at the end.
Benedictus: Keeps on finding one too good for her. Has the times and ability to win today but from barrier 8 will be taking a sit. May appreciate this way of going today.
Snip The Dancer: Not in this class today.
Good And Hot: Beat Alices Virtue two back who then progressed onwards. Disappointing last start at Caulfield but off 52kg today may go close (will try and lead this up).
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 4

Moonee Valley Race 6
Highness: Previous run solidly in this class with a win. Down to 56.5kg today which suits and from barrier 6 can sit in a winning position.
Signor Socks: Not the worst in the race today 3.5kg better off than last start 3L loss. Has the ability and seems to be progressing this prep. Barrier 3 suits.
Tiger Stripe: May appreciate the 1200m more than 950m today. Was fairly unlucky last start when blocked for run. Has the ability on previous runs and has won second up before. Barrier 1 means a strong forward sit.
Jamaican Warrior: Disappointed last start at Bendigo before a 8 month break. Back today with 1 win from 1 in this class (was on a slow track). If we get a slow or worse track due to rains, this is the one to beat.
Hygeld: Well weighted today but seems to be wanting further.
Strato Mostro: Has won second up and likes this distance. Step up in class again today an issue.
Star Bender: Nice win last start in what looked like much easier company. Will be sitting a little far back from barrier 7 for my liking.
Centuron: Not classy enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 5, 8

Moonee Valley Race 7
Champagne Esprit: Slightly down in class today but this company looks a little harder. On previous runs has ability and looked ok after spell, but needs to find much more today.
Frankly Fast: Won well last start but will find the barrier 11 an issue today to get a good sit. Up 3kg also an issue even thoiugh down in class. Has the form to win for sure.
Gold Rust: Meets Frankly Fast much better off on weights today but can’t win on last run.
Manor Lady: The form line to watch. 1.5L behind Vibrant Rogue last start who has gone on and won VERY WELL last saturday for us at Flemington. Manor Lady is down 3kg today with claim from barrier 8. Will be a little further back than we like (got interference last start due to this) but happy to risk her today. Everything in her favour..
Valuable Star: Meets Frankly Fast 1kg better off today. Needs to find more today though.
Gypsy’s Best: 0.5kg better off today with a lesser apprentice onboard today. Meets Manor Lady 2.5kg worse off today finishing within half a head last start. From barrier 1, will be positioning in a winning position and will be there at the finish.
Sierra De Oro: Poor run last start at the valley and will find it hard from barrier 10 today. Down 3kg after claim but still 0.5kg worse off than Gypsy’s Best and 3kg worse off than Manor Lady.
Comical Time: Strong win two back but this looks too classy for her.
Ransom Moment: Showed nothing last prep. Can’t have here today.
Lamingtons: The class runner of the field. Been off 4 months and finds herself claiming 3 down to 53kg (never been off that weight in 2YO class). From barrier 6 will be going forward and has won first up previously. Has ability, no doubt, but questionable none the less if the form will play out well here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 10

Moonee Valley Race 8
Bel Rhythm: Keeps on running strong races. Equal class today. Just keeps finding a few too good and dosn’t run the fastest races. Will probably get stuck in traffic again.
Quatra Valve: Strong run second to Beacons two back. Last start ran further back than expected. Down 3kg today after claim and from barrier 3 should go to the front and try and lead this from start to finish. Big chance.
Seeyasoon: Decent first up but was found out last start at Sandown. Slightly down in grade today up 0.5kg. Has ability.
Danzoya: Looking for further.
Milensnake: On two back form has ability to go forward and win but on last start, looks up against it today.
Burlington: Has ability but is suited to 3000m not 1500m.
Kinesthetic: Not the worst form lines coming into this race off 53kg after claim. If posts forward has a chance today.
Astro damus:  Decent first up run and could imrpove again today. Has the ability to be winning.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 4, 11

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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