Welcome to the The Profits Crown Oaks Day form. What a Melbourne Cup day! Green Moon was massive winning while losing a late and having a rider more than 0.5kg over his running limit. As you can see by our photo taken after his win, Brett Prebble was very happy. The card for today is less classy than Tuesday but that can be expected with a large number of Group races to be held on Saturday. There are still some nice races on and some value to be extracted. As always, do your own form and compare to ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.
Race 4 Isabella Snowflake
Race 5 Arinosa
Race 8 Zaratone
Race 4 Shamal Wind
Race 5 Specter
Race 8 Winter King
Betstar is offering double fixed odds for Group 1s from 8am in the morning. If you are new to Betstar, use the referral code 23703. With the fields today, you would be mad not to be using up the Double Fixed odds on offer.
Sportingbet are offering best exotics payouts.
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Moreau: A very strong run last start behind Kazanluk at Moonee Valley over the 1600m distance. Extra 100m today will suit but you do have to worry about her not being able to win a maiden this prep.
Gladius: Two very strong runs this prep in good times. Step up to 1700m seems to not be an issue and does map well into it.
Abdaan: Won a slowly run 1400m race last start in the country. Needs to improve today to win this.
Joplin: Good run first up when blocked and won easy second up leading start to finish in a much easier race walking out the front in a slow time.
Keep De Rose: Needs a slow pace on times to have a chance. Back to 1700m does suit but needs to improve.
Royal Amati: Broke through last start in an easier race over the 1600m trip in a solid time. Does need to improve today.
Triquetra: On previous runs has the ability. Will slot in well from barrier 1 but will need to be ridden for luck.
Ready Diva: Good win last start in much easier grade. Needs to improve big time today to stand a chance. Not sure good enough.
Biatreasure: On previous form is one of the worst in the race. Happy to be against.
Exotics: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Strategy: Not very keen this race. May have a small go at Gladius as times are sound and should be suited today with a saver on Triquertra. 0.5 units Gladius. 0.15 units Triquertra.
Flemington Race 2
Ulundi: Hasn’t won in over a year and to be fair was at a similar distance in a much harder race. Has been fairly poor this prep but in much harder races. Looks safely held off 60kg
Pelicano: Very strong over the distance and longer last prep and ran 2.5L behind Eclair Surprise last start. Form was franked with Eclair Surprise winning a much harder race on Tuesday and should be better off down in grade (won 3 from 5) up 200m. Will go very close.
Commanding Time: Keeps putting in solid runs over the distances. Weighted very well for this class of race. On form can go close.
Orbital Motion: Hasn’t had the best form this prep but last start coming home late behind Callanish is strong form lines. Barrier 16 so will go all the way back. May get too far back today but has the ability.
Whisper Downs: Ignore last start where wasn’t himself and look to three previous runs. On those runs back 200m will go very close. Barrier 7 suits.
Above: On form from last prep doesn’t stand a chance today. Will need to have improved big time.
Sambora: Form is too poor here.
Verification: Strong second to Lord Wimble last start. Previous two runs before that been fairly poor. Could run very well today at a price
Zaamore: Huge run last start at Geelong and down 3kg today could produce an even better run up 300m. Looks suited but will need to do a lot of work.
Picture Editor: Outclassed on first two runs this prep.
Micken: Good first up win after coming over from New Zealand. Has the ability but this is a big step up.
French Tang: Up in class and never won at track or class. Will have to do a bit of work early to get across for a slot but could run very well.
Niconoise: Never run a place in 8 attempts at this class. Looks outclassed.
Mont Dane: Outclassed on previous runs. Can’t even win a maiden.
Exotics: 2, 3, 5, 10, 11
Strategy: Strong form lines in this race and our picks seem to be the winners. Wouldn’t be surprised if something else from our exotics got up though. Not overly keen to bet hard here. 1 Unit Pelicano, 0.75 units Zaamore, 0.5 units Verification.
Flemington Race 3
Dystopia: Very good win first up even with the saddle slipping in front of Crafty Irna who won well a few weeks ago. Very disappointing in much harder grade last start when 3rd 5.5L to Ambidexter. Won 3 from 10 at Class and won 4 from 18 at Distance. Has the ability no doubt and from barrier 3 will have a prime position to win this.
Mrs Onassis: Big win last start but Serene Star has a 2kg swing on Mrs Onassis today. Barrier 14 an issue as will have to do a fair bit of work early. Will be there at the finish but may not have the best run in race.
Anise: Disappointing last start but did produce a fair bit from dead last. Needs to sit closer to the speed today to have a chance.
Serene Star: Huge chance. 2KG better off than Mrs Onassis today and Koonoomoo made the win two back look even better winning on Tuesday. Won 4 of last 6 with 3 of 5 in this class. Other who was 1.8L and 0.1L off. Will be there at the end with Williams on board.
Queen Delight: Looks outclassed at weights.
Ever The Same: Improving every race she has but just keeps being found short. 1 win from starts at class and 2 wins from 8 at distance. Barrier 11 means a little work early but shouldn’t be an issue. Will be strong to the line.
Honey Flower: Won very well last start at Geelong over the 1200m trip and speed maps perfectly into this with Boss onboard. Koonoomoo franked the form from last start also winning on Tuesday. Will go close.
Dream Face: back down to 1100m suits today but suspect the long straight won’t help. Has to do a load of work from barrier 19 also.
Royal Bender: Just keeps on going close. Down in class today and has a very very good shot. Big issue is the barrier and where she will settle.
Rosie’s Reward: Needs to improve today to have a chance. Barrier 15, it looks tough.
Folloncia: Should run well from barrier 12. 0 wins or places from 3 at the Flemington track but has returned in strong form this prep. Could run a good race.
Tykook: Outclassed at Moonee Valley last start from the back of the field. Looks outclassed.
Flash of Doubt: Game as the day is long. Will run another strong race but should be outclassed again today.
Bolisimo Miss: 2 wins 1 place at the track. 3 wins 2 places at the distance and has won second up before. Handles the straight track on previous form and could run a very good race.
Vain Attraction: Very good at start of last start then just died off in the final runs. Could come back very fresh today and run a very solid race.
Off and Laughing: On previous runs looks a little outclassed.
Exotics: 1, 2, 4, 7, 9
Strategy: About seven of these runners have very strong form lines. We feel that Serene Star is very progressive and has been all prep. Will eat up the straight track and be very hard to hold out. Dystopia speedmaps well into the race and if the track is suiting runners near the front could steal it. Royal Bender is due a win. 2 units Serene Star. 1 Unit Dystopia. 0.5 units Royal Bender.
Flemington Race 4
Cavalry Rose: Given every chance last start at Moonee Valley and couldn’t produce. Down in class but up in weight today. Will be suited by the rail but doesn’t have the ability to beat some of these.
Snipzu: Disappointing last two starts. Needs to improve today to have a chance.
Dashitude: Won easy first up but was found out in much harder company. This looks to be similar company today and will struggle.
Agueda: Brave horse who keeps on putting in solid runs. Will run a very solid race but at the weight should be found out by one or two horses here today.
Meidung: More suited by the 1200m race than previous two over 1400m and 1500m. 1.8L behind Nechita three back looks very good form now. Will go close.
Saturn Rock: Keeps putting in solid runs bad meets Agueda 1kg better off today even though was a nose behind her last start. Should go close but barrier 1 may hurt for a run.
Isabella Snowflake: Huge win first up and huge win again last start. Kolonga who was 3L behind ran in for a good place on Tuesday. Down 4kg and we know will handle the straight. Looks the best in this race on form.
Brave Soul: Ran two super races previously up in Sydney behind Urban Groove and then Better than Ready. Will be there at the finish on form.
Seaside: Super progressive horse and if trained on will be going close.
Burndiniburn: Some good runs but not good enough today.
Sumakaray: Won well first up in a very slow time and then a nice medium speed won very well last start. Progressive and will go well today.
Sheza Single Girl: Outclassed
Shamal Wind: Good maiden win but not good enough here.
Exotics: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: One of the hardest races of the day in terms of depth from Melbourne and Sydney form. We are very very keen on Isabella Snowflake who hasn’t looked like losing any of her preps. Will handle the trip, straight track and is weighted nicely. We believe it is a hard race but the price is value. We will be going very hard with a bet also on Brave Soul who is in with a chance. 5 units Isabella Snowflake. 1.5 units Brave Soul.
The best value in the race though has to be Isabella Snowflake to place. We will be getting above $2 for it and that is simply value.
Flemington Race 5
The Big Steel: Never won first up and suited to longer distances. Weighted harshly and would need to have trained on brilliantly for a chance today.
Vilakazi Street: Hasn’t finished within 2.8L this start. Has put in some nice runs and is down in class today but up to 58kg. Needs to improve to win today.
King Cobweb: Outclassed on previous runs and first up didn’t show enough.
New Beginning: Ignore last start and look to two and three back. Solid runs in close to or better races than this. Last start was run in slow time and front runners given no chance. Will go well today.
Specter: Much better this prep than previous but doesn’t seem to have the quality.
Emboldened: Good up in Darwin and come down and won first up at Bendigo in a easier race. Will be tested today but should run well.
Dash for Viz: Nice second behind Elusive touch in a slow time. Will need a bit of luck to win today from barrier 18.
Jakcorijim: Up from Tasmania. Very hard to tell how he will go today but the times being run have been ok.
Palmyra Boy: Outclassed on previous runs.
Arinosa: Super prep and Mosse Diva going close on Tuesday franks the form. Weighted to win today.
Translation: Outclassed on first up run.
Keep it Moist: Much harder race today than what he has won in up in Queensland.
Run Diego: Much harder than last start. Should still run well.
Wannajewel: Weighted nicely today but does look outclassed.
Ametsis: Decent run last start. Could run on well today.
Exotics: 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 17
Strategy: Very keen in this race that out of our top two is the winner. Arinosa should be the one but New Beginning isn’t close behind at all on our ratings. 2 Units Arinosa. 1.5 Units New Beginning.
Flemington Race 6
Dear Demi: Should be suited by the wide barrier today and hopefully pushes further forward than last start. Should run out the 2500m with no issue. Meets Zydeco 2.5kg better off today.
Zydeco: Super win last start due. Barrier 7 means she may not get a perfect run like last start but chances are she will. Will be coming hard late.
Mama’s Choice: Outclassed on previous runs.
Alzora: Won very well last start over the 2000m and should handle the 2500m no problems. Should get a perfect run from barrier 5.
Transonic: Nice run last start from the front. Will run well again today.
Maraatib: Ran a big race at a big price. Wants further and from barrier 3 will get another good ride.
Ireland’s Teardrop: Blocked for runs last start and should run well again today.
Summerbliss: Good run last start. Needs to improve again today from barrier 1.
Kate: Looks outclassed.
Tyanna: Didn’t show enough last start. Didn’t seem to handle the distance.
La Zuma: Not classy enough on previous runs.
Zuccotto: Not classy enough.
Ten Black: Not classy enough.
Gondokoro: Not classy enough.
Finnegan Beginegan: Has some ability but outclassed today it seems. Interesting that Newitt is booked for the ride.
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 4, 6, 15
Exotics: 1, 2, 4, 6, 15, 7, 8
Strategy: Only touching this race due to Double Fixed odds with Betstar for Zydeco. Dear Demi should improve and go close but the price on Zydeco is value. Maraatib was huge last start and will run well today. Could sit further ahead and be there at the line. Curious about the No.15 with Newitt on board. Small E/W on it. 2 Units Zydeco. 0.5 Units Maraatib. 0.25 units E/W Finnegan Beginegan.
Flemington Race 7
Flemington Race 7
Kazanluk: Big win last start at Moonee Valley. Up 3kg today and is a chance but will find it hard off the weight.
Scapolo: Won very well last start in much much much easier company. Needs to find lengths today.
Pharomac: Nice runs this prep but up in class today. Just keeps going close and missing. Speedmaps well.
Road Trippin: Ignore last start. This is the easiest race in a long time for him and could run well if produces a career best run.
Real Stolle: Ran very well two back behind A Time for Julia but was back to normal last start. Outclassed.
The Principal: Good win last start over the 1600m. Could run well today if produces similar.
Bay Flyer: Looks outclassed today.
Gerontius: Gone close last two starts but outclassed today.
Host of the Party: Outclassed
Ali Vital: Good last run last start but does look outclassed. May go forward as a surprise.
Flying Skipper: Needs to improve lengths today.
Bloodbuzz Ohio: Outclassed.
Arousing Suspicion: Outclassed
Hey Big Bender: Outclassed
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Exotics: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Don’t like this race. Small win bet if anything this race but chances are we will skip. 0.5 units Road Trippin.
Flemington Race 8
Golden Archer: Ran nicely last start but is more suited to the 1000m which he gets today. Won 6 placed 3 from 10 at distance and won 3 placed 1 at track. Weighted nicely today.
Zaratone: Ran a super brave race first up and should be better suited to the 1000m today. Will be hard to run down.
Winter King: Good last prep but needs to improve today to win first up.
Canali: Ran very strong behind howmuchdoyouloveme first up in a good time. Up 2kg today, should run on well.
It’s Crunch Time: BIG win at Moonee Valley last start. Has won 5 of last 8 with other three positions being second. Is a big chance today.
General Truce: Always produces a solid run and should again today. Can go close.
Beyond Pardon: Strong firs tup run but needs to improve again today.
Kulgrinda: Down 3.5kg today so weighted to win. Can run very well and go close.
Stratcombe: Very poor first two runs this start. Can’t have today.
Outstandingly: Down from Queensland, needs to produce a career best run to win today. Has the ability and could be value.
I Get Around: Some might say a moral beaten first up. Up 1kg today and will run well.
The Minister: Good first up but found out last start in classier field. Has the ability.
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11
Exotics: 1, 2, 5, 8, 11
Strategy: Super hard race. Zaratone was super first up and happy to stick him out. 3 Units Each Way Zaratone. 1 Unit Golden Archer & It’s Crunch Time
Flemington Race 9
Prizum: Great win two back and beaten by a very classy horse in Sertorius last start. Suited today.
Lord of Brazil: Very poor last start for no reason. Has the ability and has beaten majority of this field in some race previously. Will be there at the end.
Its Prince: Doesn’t have the ability this prep.
Lord Wimble: Big win last start at Moonee Valley. Question marks if he is suited by the straight track but we will find out. Weighted nicely.
Magic Me: Should run well on the form lines of last start. May still not be classy enough.
New York: Unlucky not to win last start. Should run on strongly again today and down in weight big time today.
Streets of Seattle: Looks outclassed at the distance.
Alrouz: Good win last start but outclassed today.
Chile Express: Has some ok form but didn’t show enough first up to win this.
Renegade Arrow: Strong behind Chilly Reception last start. Could run a good race.
World Domination: Looks outclassed.
Rare Bear: Form not strong enough.
Quaddie leg four: 1, 2, 4, 7
Exotics: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7
Strategy: A few good chances in the race today but Prizum speed maps perfectly into this race. Should be able to handle the weight. We are savering the best weighted horse in the race New York. Hoping Lord Wimble doesn’t handle the ground and outside the rail doesn’t provide enough ground for LW to swoop. 2 units Prizum. 0.5 units New York.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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