Horse Racing Form – Randwick & Caulfield – Saturday 21 April 2012

Horse Racing - Australia

What a weekend we had. Put Master of Design up last week on twitter at $61 and followed it as the best in the race last week on our write up and got the chocolates. Not sure we can give you a $61 winner this week but we are very confident on a $15 horse that put down sectionals better then Black Caviar.. on it’s first ever run. Enjoy and have a great weekend punting!

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=34608&raceid=302225
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Randwick

Race 1
Dear Demi looks well suited here by the extra 200m in the race. The only query will be the ground after a 2.5L lose in similar company over 1200 on a slower track. Tactics on the ride didn’t help either though and last time out given a better ride closer to front. Will go very close.
Rowie is a horse that is hard to position. Barrier 10 looks to be a challanege and the horse will be taken mid to mid back and will have to sit 2-3 wide. Did look really good on debut in the win and will be hard to beat.
Proverb is very interesting. Ran well on slow first up in an ok time. Ran a decent second up when too far back and last start ran ok once again. May be looking for the extra 200m.
Finally, Honorius is a classy horse who you can expect a consistant run from. Looks suited by extra distance but slow ground is the concern. They will be taking it more forward in this run on the slow track to give it a good test.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 2
More of an interesting race than you may think.
Driefontein deserves to be the favourite but the 60.5kg is VERY questionable at this price. Was a great run last start but is giving 2kg to Agueda for example on their last run against each other.
Agueda ran well last start but found a horse too good for itself in Dance On Stars. It has to be said Ishihara would have beaten both if it could find a way out also. Agueda has a massive shot here.
Meidung is a horse with huge potential. Beat Dance On Stars first up easily (which beat Agueda last start) and then ran a very handy 2nd behind Samaready at last start. Keep your eye on it.
Medusa’s Miss is the one we are most keen on here. A MASSIVE 56.4 over 1000 first up winning by 4.3L. Comes into this with Williams onboard and only a 0.5kg raise in weight. Barrier 1 also very good. You can watch the first up run in bad quality here – www.youtube.com/watch?v=bndNx1fonpw – The horse ran a 32.61sec 600m sectional.. that is insane.
Confidence Factor – 90%

Race 3
Quidnunc comes into this with an ok record over the distance and a 1 win 3 places from 5 on Slow tracks including a good 2nd over 1200 on slow two runs back in better class. Last 3 runs in winnable races have been in better classes than this and each have been 1L or less in it. Should run a true race.
Lightinthenite put down a massive run in Group 2 company last run and a very handy 2nd behind the same horse in Listed company. Two first up runs for two wins is a very good record also and the 54kg is a gift here.
Forgive the last start of Riva De Lago on a ground that wasn’t working for back markers. Look to the run before that against Title for good form. Barrier 14 will be a big disadvantage for this horse here.
Samui Lad comes into this with two good runs this prep from midfield and the front. He ran last start in a blistering 1:22.1. Didn’t handle a slow track 5 runs back is a big issue for the horse but has a shot if you forgive that.
Olinoor comes into this race REALLY well weighted and with a win on Heavy, win on slow and 2 places from 4 starts on those surfaces. This is a horse that runs well on all tracks but seems to love swimming. Will be there at the finish.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 4
Landing comes into this race off three good wins of over 2L margins and out of More Than Ready. The price looks awefully short for it though when you consider the lack of quality in those races.
Scorpio Queen comes into this race off a nice 4 month spell after a huge 3.3L win over 1800. Combine that with a good maiden win by 1.8L on a heavy track and you start to like the form of this horse who stays on very well and enjoys a wet track. The price looks way overs.
War Charm’s form suggests it can’t swim. The up in class and weight makes us want to look elsewhere but if samui lad wins the eariler race, consider.
Shadow West was impressive in some of it’s runs last prep. Not sure if it has improved enough to win here but surely they will use the normal tactics, take it back and try and go late.
Charm’s Honour comes into this well on recent form. Has put down some very good times and handles the wet grounds very well. Has been within 0.5L 4 of the last 5 starts with the only exception against Nobby Snip.
Finally, Ignore last start where Sacred Pins was blocked for a run and given a ride further back in the field than you would want. Schofield back onboard and form says it can run well on heavy grounds. Right in this.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 5
Strema deserves to be the favourite in this race after a great run against Mosheen last start. Form suggests a wet track won’t affect Streama but there are queries about the ground and the 2400 metres.
Full Of Spirit was brilliant first up in Australia, delivering on the form it has threatened to produce. This is surely a harder race but when you compare times, FOS isn’t far off Streama and breading suggests the horse will handle the 2400m.
Rock Robster is down in class here after a great run 2nd behind Backbone at Mornington. While it is down in class, we think this is really a harder race. It will run well but not sure if it has the tank to beat these.
Finally, Aliyana Tilde ran a solid race 3.3L 3rd behind Mosheen and Streama. Form suggests it will handle the heavy track so could be value.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 6
Herculian Prince was disappointing last up but you can ignore that run on a good track and look 2 back to the slow track run. He ran very well and could run well agains there on a wet track.
Snow Alert has been looking for a longer distance race for a while and finally got it last start over 200m. Was very unlucky being blocked for a run. Barrier 19 is a big disadvantage and seems to be the most hardly treated weight wise out of that race.
Fibrillation comes into this off two solid wins, one on a slow track. Will be there at the end but this does look a little harder than last start.
Dance With Her has drawn an awkward gate here. Dance With Her has VERY good wet weather form and you need to forgive the last run where it was 4kg WORSE off and on a Good track, where the horse has NEVER placed before! A BIG chance here.
Western Symbol has been running good races and won last up. Has good wet track form and is 3 wins 1 place from 4 over distance with 1 win 1 place in class. Weighted well also.
Discounting Southern Skye due to poor form on wet tracks.
Confidence Factor – 72%

Race 7
The hardest race of the day to pick.
More Joyous deserves to be favourite here. The class of the race with 57.5kg on her back. Will be taken to her normal spot in the race and given every opportunity. Has the best sectional in the race from her last run out and reproducing a similar run wins this race.
Shoot Out has been running well but the feeling is that this race is a little too hard for it. It will find one horse too good for it here.
Rangirangdoo is a horse we are wiling to risk. It preforms better over a longer distance and prefers a good or dead track.
Albert The Fat hasn’t been the same since it’s Group 1 win over 1600. Is weighted to be in this but can’t have it.
Sincero comes into this race gaining 4kg on More Joyous after finishing 1.5L behind her over 1300. Sincero could reverse the form here on weights and extra distance. Concern with the track as Sinceros best runs have been on a good track.
Secret Admirer is weighted well but has drawn a shocking barrier. May be forced to ride 3 wide the whole trip.
Hurtle Myrtle is a horse we can’t have on it’s last two runs.
Ignore last run by Monton and consider how well weighted the horse is. Is 7kg better off than last time 1.3L 2nd to More Joyous over 1300. Barrier 18 is a concern but will be given a gun run and come late.
Niagara can’t be ignored here but feeling is that it is outclassed here.
Fast Clip ran a huge run last start with a very fast time. Only question is the ground.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 8
Nobby Snip has been a very strong horse and comes into this with no weight on it’s back. It’s times have not been the best you will ever see but it has been controlling races and just stays on strongly.
Satin Shoes has been very impressive since it resumed. Off 53kg, has a massive shot here. Finished 0.3L 2nd to Rain Affair last start and somehow loses 1kg off it’s back down in class. From barrier 2, will be suited by this race.
Elite Falls comes out of the same race as Satin Shoes and finished 1.2L behind Satin. From barrier 14, can’t see the horse running a better race than last, even though it wasn’t suited by the tempo.
Zaratone won a race on a very biased front-runner track. It has to be said that Master of Design ran home very well in that race and beat Rain Affair in the next run. Zaratone also lost a plate in the run yet still won by 2.3L. Could be the value here. Only problem is very poor form on slow/heavy tracks, but stats suggest can reverse this due to form.
Hot Snitzel comes into this race well. This is a big step up in grade but should run a very good race. Barrier 15 is a big hurdle for the horse.
Bel Sprinter has disappointed this prep. Expect it to be there at the finish but not sure if you really want to take it at the price.
ThankGodYou’reHere is the most interesting runner with 2 places and 1 win in Group 3’s over it’s last 4 starts before going for a spell. First up record is sound. Not a great record on wet tracks is a big negative for us though.
Temple of Boom is known as a swimmer but we really can’t have it here. Has shown very little this prep.
Mic Mac is very unlucky to bring 58kg into this race. Was a solid run first up after missing the start. Will be there at the end but should find just 1 or 2 too good.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Race 9
A BM-85 race to end this day? Surely the organisers are on drugs. Oh well, we will give it a shot!
Dee’N’Gee comes into this race with some good times to it’s name. Will be given a solid ride and will be hard to hold out, especially if the track is biased to front runners.
Flying Empress is a VERY interesting runner. Ignore the last start of last prep and look to the two runs before that. A 1:22.8 and 1:09.8 both on dead tracks. Those are huge times for this class of horse. She comes into this off a 4 month spell with a 2/1 from 4 first up record and 3 wins from 6 at distance. Also has some great form on Heavy tracks. Barrier 4 is perfect. Watch for this horse!
Startrusse has had excuses in it’s last three starts. This is a horse with all the talent in the world with a 1.5L loss to foxwedge in it’s form line. It did come from dead last in it’s last run after being slowly away and pulling hard to get 3rd (3L). Can go close if given a good ride but horse it too erratic to back.
Next the Universe will run a solid race after a 0.1L 2nd to Celts. Not sure it can reproduce such a good run on this type of track. Seems to only enjoy Good tracks.
Miss Marx may be suited by the heavy track but looks outclassed at the weight.
Falzzon is a horse in equal class yet down 4.5kg with Craig Wiliams onboard. Has a 3L win over Next the universe to it’s name and is 4th up on this prep. Should be ridden forwardish and handle the ground off this weight.
Turf Hero comes in with some form on Heavy tracks. Think it will be outclassed here though.
Finally, Disputes can’t be ignored with solid runs in better races last prep. Bad first up record is only issue.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Caulfield

Race 1
As normal, not very keen this race with so many first starters.
The favourite looks the goods with a good time first up in a quality race.
Anniversary Belle won a barrier trial by 6L. Not sure how good that form will be but is impressive for a first starter.
Confidence Factor – 0%

Race 2
Sparks Alight – Ignore last start and look to the previous run. Will run well here. Only issue is up 4kg. May be weighted out of this.
Model To Nite comes into this with a good chance off 55kg after claim. Ignore last start and hope for a slow race if youa re on this horse.
Sensational Report has been consistent and has won 3 of the last 4 races with only a lose to very much in-form Sheilas Star on the record. Weighted well  here and good barrier draw. Will enjoy a ground wit a bit of water also.
Star Of Giselle can go very close here. Ran 0.7L behind Sensational Report last start.
Finally, Tigress Joy ran well last start. Is a horse that always does something wrong and we think it needs a Good track to run well.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 3
Rue Maple is the runner we are very interested in for this race. Has some very good runs under it’s belt last prep including a WFA-G3 0.1L 2nd. After the claim 56.5kg looks reasoble and has a good record first up. Expecting that it will ahve trained on well.
Spartini is all class. Having won it’s last four runs, all of them were very impressive. This looks to be a harder race and it oculd very well win this easy.. but we can’t back it at the $2.90 quote.
Delabombell is the class of this race. Beating Miss Octopussy over 1100 in a very fast time, the horse comes into this down 2kg after the claim. Expect a massive run.
Confidence Factor – 77%

Race 4
Not very keen on this race but have it down to two.
RoxIt is a horse with massive ability. Got injured during a race 5 months back and has finally recovered. Will run well.
Vain Attraction has some very good form and with Mallyon onboard will run very well. Down in class after winning first up. Expect to improve.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 5
Rock Hit seems to be outclassed here but may surprise. Wouldn’t be entered without a hope.
Happy to pass by Livigno off the first two runs. They were good but times not impressive yet.
Fast and Free seems to be going well but looks outclassed on weights.
Festina Lente can be forgiven for last up run due to the fast pace and Good track. Will run a good race.
Sir Fernando can also be forgiven for last start. Finished 1.5L ahead of Festina Lente. Has the best jockey at the track onboard for the race.
Cash Bound will be right in this race also. Barrier may be a slight issue. Think 1 or 2 may just be too good.
Finally, Amah Rock comes in off a good first up run. Should improve second up and has won in this class previously. Expect a bold run.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 6
Seville is probably the most interesting runner of the day. 6 months spell and taken from racing in Britain to Australia. The horse has finished 2nd in two runs in 3Y-G1 company. Only win is over 1400 so does look suited. Has placed in 5 of 7 in class also.
Testa My Patience has really tested our patience. Up 2kg from it’s last run, the weight just looks too much for it here.
Under The Eiffel ran a very true race last start and is on the way to winning. Up 2kg is a big concern here but may find best.
Pago Rock is a horse with lengths of quality in it’s legs. Was given a better ride last start and took out the win. Could once again find a good run.
Dusty Star has a 3Y-GP2 win by 1L over Under The Eiffel to it’s name in good times. Ran well first up and should be fitter after never winning first up but having won 2nd up. Barrier is an issue but will still go forward with a huge weight deduction.
Elusive King has never won first up but has won over 1400m. Does have a good record in class with 2 wins 1 place. Get the feeling this may just be too short for it though.
Zubbaya can’t be discounted. Beat home Spirited Eagle 2 runs back over 1400.
FreeReturn is a Big chance in this race but boy it is short for the price. Will try and go forward.
Finally, Sheila’s Star probably won’t get a run, but if it does, will be VERY hard to beat.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 7
Scelto Ran a very good race last start and comes into this 4.5kg better off than Red Typhoon who beat it by 1.5L. Could run well.
Red Typhoon looks to be harshly handicaped here. Up 4.5kg from last start 1L win.
Chieftain Jack ran a quality timed race last start and should improve here. Last 3 runs all been solid.
Tower Of Lonhro has won it’s last 3 runs. Weight ma ybe an issue but will give you a run for your money.
Finally Zabeelionaire. Won by 8L in it’s maiden but didn’t live up to the hype. Down 1.5KG due to claim this run but will be up against it again.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 8
Zedi Knight looks well treated here in the weights with 57kg. It’s last win was at Caulfield over the 1200 with 57.5kg onboard from a wide barrier. This race does look winable.
Rocking Force didn’t impress us much with it’s last run and is somehow up 2kg for it. Very happy to be against it here.
Curtana has put in 3 good runs this prep even though it hasn’t placed. This is a very winable race for it and down to 54kg gives the horse every chance.
Prince Obama is a very interesting runner. First up after a 7 month spell. Ran 3rd 0.8L to Whobegotyou off 59kg in a WFA-G2. Heavily down in class and has 1 win 5 place from first up runs.
Stratcombe is weighted to win this race. Runs well over the distance and course but is yet to break through for a win in 3 starts here. Will certainly be there at the end.
Waltez can’t be discounted.
Finally, Alpha Proxima has a good first up record of 2 wins from 4. Could win this.
Confidence Factor – 75%

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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