Horse Racing Form – Sandown and Launceston Cup Day – Wednesday 20 February 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits form for one race at Sandown and two at Launceston on Cup day. Very slim picking, especially with a large amount of rain around in both states. Always lower your confidence on days like today which means lower amounts bet. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy mid-week punting!

Best Bet
Launceston Race 7 The Cleaner

Best Value
Launceston Race 8 Banca Mo

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Sandown Race 7
Eight Cards: Last prep won at Moonee Valley on a distance 400m up from this. Never won or placed first up but has won 3 from 5 second up. Doesn’t let that first up record fool you, he is weighted nicely today and could run well, especially considering 3 from 8 on a heavy track.
Rifleman: Never run on a slow or heavy track before but is 1/1 on dead. Ignore only start at distance where was lame after race. Been running VERY WELL in city class recently and won last start here in higher class. Weighted well enough to win today.
Zevada: Strong 2nd last start at lakeside course in higher class. Been off a long time but did trial well. Will be running on once again but is poorly weighted today. Still, has a big chance.. but may need further.
Lightenuff: Not the worst run first up but must find more today. Should be suited more to the distance and off 55kg has a good chance.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Blocked for run last start and had race run to suit. 55kg today up in class, could surprise.
American Dream: Showed enough last start to suggest is better than first up run where lead up and wasn’t suited. Could be value.
Daybreak: Very good win first up over a well fancied horse in Esprit Rossa. Has run well on heavy last start.
Tiryns: Snowden runner who showed enough last prep to suggest progression. If cash comes, follow. .
Aneto: Seems to get away slowly. Another resumer today. Can’t seem to win first up but does run well at the distance. Weighted nicely.
Racer’s Dream: Not good enough for this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Very open race, it all depends on track conditions and if there is any track bias. I think the price being bet for Rifleman is overs and Daybreak will speed map well enough to contest the finish.

Launceston Race 7
Geegees Blackflash: Big run last start and does run very well on wet ground. Could be value in the race today weighted better off against Hurdy.
The Cleaner: Looks to be the horse with the most upside today. Weighted equally from last start and better suited today by the track choice. Won 4 from 9 at track and has won 5 from 6 on slow ground. From barrier 5 finds the lead. Value for sure.
Hurdy Gurdy Man: Good win first up, up 2kg today, but has won once from 4 on slow or heavy which is a concern. Should be there at the end, but hard to back at the price on giving up so much weight.
Norsqui: Hard to see the improvement to win today on this ground off recent starts.
Dream Pedlar: Didn’t show enough last start although is much better weighted today against GeeGees Blackflash.
Fieldmaster: Preformed rather poorly last start and doesn’t seem to have the progression over other horses here today.
Lucky Angel: Big run from the back. Expect to position slightly further forward today, but not suited by the track. Still, a good chance.
Catwen Boy: Not good enough on recent runs.
Unoaked: Won last four in a row but this is a big step up.
Gee Gee’s La Quita: Could be suited by step up in distance today, but like some others, out of this league.
Sandeep: Not good enough for this.
Ollie’s Gold: Hard to rate on recent runs but hard to see the progression from CL1 three runs back to this.
Richoman: Not the worst run last start and will position forward, but not rated well here.
Neil’s Gold: Not good enough.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Happy to bet The Cleaner to win today with a saver on Hurdy Gurdy. 2.5 Units win 1 Unit saver

Launceston Race 8
Youthful Jack: Big progression here last start and is unders today. Will run well agian today but will be hard to swoop this.
Under The Eiffel: Strong form lines, but was found out last start. No real wet form to speak of. Still, a good chance.
Cellarmaster: Unlucky not to win last start and has strong form lines coming into this. Never won on heavy or slow a big issue.
Lord of Brazil: Loves a wet track and will position perfectly today. Up 3kg and up in grade today, this is a test, he looks awefully short.
Banca Mo: Missed the start last start but still battled on very well. Up to 1600m today will suit but most importantly eats up the wet. If the ground is slow, he will be very hard to beat.
Success Dostta: Not good enough on last two runs.
Barysh Quest: Ran well enough last start to suggest can run ok today. Barrier 1 a big negative.
Jakcorijim: Not good enough for this class on last start.
second Dozen: Big step up today. Hard to see it.. but will run well.
Rahveel: Not good enough.
Beautiful Buns: Very strong win over Rebel Bride last start. Has ability and can go close today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: If there is still a slow track by Race 8, then Banca Mo looks to be HUGE overs on previous form lines. Ran well enough to suggest has the progression. Lord of Brazil can’t be taken on today so requires a saver and we want to be having a small bit of money on Beautiful Buns with a progressive form line.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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