Horse Racing Form – Sandown – Wednesday 20 February 2013

Horse Racing - Australia

Welcome to The Profits Wednesday racing form. We are looking to recover today from a very poor weekend where nothing seemed to go right. Anyone who saw the way Keep Cool was ridden can agree that the horse should have won and we got unlucky. That is simply racing, the kid will learn and next time won’t make the same mistakes (hopefully). Onwards and upwards I say. Today is a fairly tricky card and there are only three races we are keen to bet into.. and there are some fairly big IF’s around some of those, mainly around prices.  As always, I hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!

Best Bet
Race 1 High Kingczar to place

Best Value
Race 3 Smooth General

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports

Index
Red
means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Sandown Race 1
Grand Ducal: Three back in equal class started a $101 shot and finished 0.3L behind High Kingczar. Down 1.5kg today on that run (0.5kg better off vs High). Last start showed enough to suggest was suited by the extra 500m, but there is a lot of questions to still be answered. Looks awfully short for a horse that hasn’t won since May of 2009!
Heaven’s Riches: Four starts this prep and hasn’t finished within 4L of a win. Never ran over 3000m and previous runs suggest is better suited at 1600-2000m. Hard to have today even on weights.
High Kingczar: Simply ignore last start. Was ridden with some aggressive moves that didn’t suit the horse, also pulled up with an issue or two. Look to two back run behind Platinum Jack where from an inside barrier ran much better. Should go close today.
Our Rockhampton: Three runs this prep and been 9.5L or more away each start. Can’t have even though he is wanting the distance.
Xaar Best: Not the worst horse in the race and could run very well. Was fairly successful last hurdle season which suggests she should be able to go well at the distance.
Sayangku: 2nd favourite and it is hard to see why. Up in class today and only down 0.5kg yet this prep hasn’t ran within 3.3L of a win over five runs. Has never gone this distance either and up in distance hasn’t helped.
Steiglitz: Only placed once from 15 starts. No chance.
Confidence: 70%
Strategy: I am happy to avoid Grand Ducal and Sayangku here. Depending on the prices put up on Betfair, my bets in this race will change. If I can lay Sayangku at the prices being bet around the traps right now ($3.50), I am happy to take it on. If it gets out to around $4.50, then my bet will be around High Kingczar to place. If you are keen on the form of Xaar Best in this race, I couldn’t tell you not to touch it… but best to see the support come for her.

Sandown Race 2
No prices up on this race and it is hard to match up the form in this race, but Willis is certainly the one to beat and will come up a short priced favourite. If they bet over $2 (HIGHLY DOUBT) then he is certainly value. Will probably start a $1.55 favourite and I just simply couldn’t touch that.

Sandown Race 3
Chile Express: Ran on well last start and if sits further forward today should have a chance today on weights.
Cavallo Nero: Storm form lines and got the job done last start at course and distance. Up 1.5kg today and should be hard to beat again today.
Two Hills: First three runs this prep have all been decent and up in class today will need to find much more. Hard to see a win at the weights and distance.
Kuhreihen: Down from city Saturday class races where has been close to winning. Never out of it and will be positioned to win today. Weighted nicely and the only issue is if he gets a run from the inside barrier. Other issue for me is that I suspect is better suited to going back which is hard from the barrier.
Aashiq: Improved significantly last start at Flemington but it is hard to see him run on like that here today. Still, weighted nicely but happy to bet around.
Messene: If you are forgiving and backed him last start, then it is hard to jump off. Something simply went wrong and on form, should be up to this today.
Tower of Lonhro: Resuming after a fair time off the track. Showed promise two preps ago and then returned poorly last prep before going straight out for a spell. Could surprise but does need to show a lot to win today.
Smooth General: Weighted nicely today down to 52kg (6.5kg below last start Pakenham 2L win). On that form can go close today at a very big price.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Smooth General seems huge overs here off the weights and speedmaps to get a sit 1 out 1 back for what looks like the perfect run while Cavallo Nero is certainly the one to beat. 1 unit win Smooth General 0.75 units win Cavallo Nero and 2.5 units to place Smooth General.

Sandown Race 5
I was keen on Princess Rock here, but they seem to have scratched her. Vine shortens even further in betting now. Not a huge fan of the race anymore as Vine should be winning this with Magical King and Scotchontherocks seeming to be slight hopes.
Vine: Angola form lines have been strong, even if it was 6.5L behind the horse so when Vine won in a 14 horse maiden last start by 4.5L, it was not a surprise. Having a look at the form of those horses he beat, it is hard to see why he is $1.80 today. Down to 54kg is nice, but shouldn’t get it as easy today.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Princess Rock scratched, not touching.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

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The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

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