The last week and a half at Caulfield, the lead up horses have been dominating. On Wednesday, the swoopers did get a few but the saturday before, it was a lead out horse winning all day.
Following the form, we are looking for horses who will be leading or near the front going around the final turn. We expect a Dead track for the first 2-3 races then hopefully the track will be upgraded to a Good track.
Florets – 3L and 3.8L loses to Atlantic Jewel (Who is that distance better than all in this race) in previous races. Expect an impressive run
We were going for Spatha but it has been scratched 🙁
Now we cannot go past the favourite in Masthead – some close finishes behind Sepoy and foxwedge enough for us. If you can back in play, don’t back until 50metres in as the horse misses the start quite a bit!
Roma Giaconda – We rate Manawanui highly and a 1.8L loss after a slow start two runs back is good form
Niagara had an impressive win over 1550 by 6L on a slow track a few weeks back. Down 2kg and should handle the distance.
Isopach next best and worth a look into also, especially if front-runners don’t go well in the first 3 races.
No one can doubt Sepoy in this race and he deserves to be favourite.. but there are a few other great horses in this race and he is too short. We will outline 3 you should back to take on Sepoy.
Mid Summer Music. In it’s last 6 runs, it has won 4 and lost 2 by under 0.3 lengths. Will be there in the end. Only query is the track and msm isn’t a lead up horse.
Buffering – Lead up horse from barrier 4. Won 4 of 8 on Good track and has won at 1000 and 1200. Has the ability
Perturbo – Great horse on it’s day. Will be coming from midfield with a big run at the end. First up query but feel it started well last up (4th against black caviar by 6.5length is decent form).
Amaethon always had the ability and came back in massive form last up winning in 1:08.2 which is a massively fast time. Expecting Good track and for Amaethon to continue. Will be in the first 4-5 horses going around the bend and will always look a chance.
We are tipping up two horses here. One is a lead up and one is a swooper so make sure you understand the ground before betting on this one.
Midnight Martini was great in it’s last up 4th and should improve on. Will appreiciate the ground and a first 4 run around the final bend jumping from barrier 3.
Extra Zero can be forgiven for the last up run. Was taken further forward than normal to try and battle the quality of December Draw in a Group 1. Will find this Group 3 a little easier and stay mid pack and be there at the finish.
December Draw deserves to be ontop in this race but once against, it’s too short and we want to take it on.
Lucas Cranach is a very interesting international horse. If you go with its WFA G-2 win off 60 KG, it goes down 4 kg in this race and has a great time over the distance on a good track. Concern with it being a swooper and first up record of (3-1-0). Could be value at 18’s.
Hawk Island has had two great runs recently. Coming from a Group 1 second place in a 17 horse field over the distance eariler this month, he is up for the challenge. This is the lowest weight he has been off all year. Will go around midfield and end well. Currently trading at 23’s.
Southern Speed is starting from barrier 4 and will be better positioned against December Draw this time as it suffered interferance last start. Backing up off a WFA-G1 2nd to Lion Tamer at Caulfield, SS could go very close.
Roughie: Dream Pedlar won’t be far off in the end and should be close to the lead the whole race. Worth a small sneaky e/w.
The price for More Joyous in this race is a joke. There are a number of horses in better form right now, especially when you consider the 58.5kg being carried.
Sister Madly is the top hope for an upset. She always runs a true race and will be there in the finish. Finished 3 lengths infront of More Joyous last up.
Sistine Angel is a quality horse and will be there in the end. A big swooper so remember if the course is set up for swoopers, get on it! Only concern is 57.5kg.
Born to Rock. Won a good race at MV two weeks ago and will from barrier 1 will lead this race from the start. Expect a strong tempo and for Born to Rock to stay.
Wishing i could be on Jesse’s Girl!!! But I can’t thanks to a song
I can’t believe Satin Shoes is so short AGAIN in another race
Rue Maple is our top hope and will be there at the finish. Will be travelling mid to front of field.
Don’t dismiss Miss Elvee who on times, could factor into the race.