Horse Racing Tips – Emirates Stakes Day – Flemington – Saturday 5 November 2011

Horse Racing - Australia

How are our tips going?
Since October 8, we are up 140 units (betting 1 unit E/W on every tipup). What is a unit? A unit is the standard amount you bet (for example: If you bet $25 E/W on every race, 1 unit = $25).

We are skipping race 1 as you are taking a stab in the dark if you bet on it. If you don’t have any insider knowledge, it is a losing bet race.

Quaddie
The following are the main runners. You won’t be able to go THIS wide so go through an exclude a few runners.
Leg 6
1,2,4,8,9,10,11
Leg 7
1, 11, 8, 5, 9
Leg 8
1, 2, 6
Leg 9
8,3,14,12,10,5

 

Race 2
The most ‘open’ race of the day with several chances. The value pick in this race is the low weight who has won 4 & placed in 3 from 8 runs. Forgive last start, gains a 5.5kg advantage going into this race and looks suited to factor in at odds. There are five other horses that could easily factor into this race due to form lines and recent good form. Of those horses, we like the form and look of He’s Remarkable with a handy Group 2, 3.3L loss to Testa My Patience who is all quality and much better than any horse in this race. Does suffer a 6.5kg penalty for down in grade but the weight shouldn’t phase. 5 starts over this distance for 2 wins and 3 places. The other two horses we also like the look of are Shenzhou Steeds, with some quality form up against Under The Eiffel recently, who is flying atm! Down 2kg and better 2nd up. The other two is Eraset who is down 2.5kg from last run where he lost to Happy Trails by 0.1L after being blocked for a run.

Horse odds as of Friday 8pm AEST
Finiguerra $24 win $6.5 place, Hes Remarkable $4.5 Win $1.75 place

Race 3
Another good race with a few different horses in the mix. The quality horse in this race for us is Pacino. Down to a reasonable 54.5kg and starting from barrier 4, Pacino will run a true race and was very unlucky last up to lose by 0.1L. A winner at course and distance, all the signs point towards Pacino. The two other horses we like in this race are Model To Nite and Daydream Charlie. Model starts from barrier two so will be able to take a rails run and sit midfield where it needs to be (any further than 7/8 back and it just doesn’t have the turn of speed). Don’t overlook Daydream Charlie at massive odds. Mc Evoy on board is an interesting ride and when you look at the form, a 0.4L loss to Lalla Rookh, a VERY handy horse and not being disgraced it’s last few runs, going down to the weight it last won off, on a R94 race, a win won’t shock. Expect a forward run from barrier 5.

Horse odds as of Friday 8pm AEST
Pacino $22 win $6.4 place, Model To Nite $17.5 Win $5.25 place, Daydream Charlie $61 Win $18 Place

Race 4
A quality race of well breed horses with Exceed and Excel, X2 Fastnet Rock, X2 More than Ready, MossMan, Lonhro and Elusive Quality showing some massive chances in this race. The best form we like in this one comes out of a More Than Ready bread runner in Mahisara who was 1.3L behind Hot Snitzel last up.. who almost ran down Sepoy at it’s last start. The next best for us is Toned who has won it’s last two starts and lost by 1.5L to a handy type of Miss Stellabelle who ran well on Tuesday.

Horse odds as of Friday 10pm AEST
Mahisara $5.30 win $2.30 place, Toned $7.40 Win $2.95 place

Race 5
Black Caviar to win. Enough said. If we were to bet on a place in this race, it would be Mid Summer Music ($3.40), who has not lost by more than 1.4L in it’s last 5 starts including races against Sepoy and Sister Madly.

Race 6
The main race is going to be an absolute cracker. Wall Street was slowly away last up when finishing 1.8L 4th coming from dead last. A great run considering the 59kg weight. Down to 56kg here, we have Wall Street on top from barrier 2. Secret Admirer has the exact same form line and similar position during race. Only down 1kg though. Jimmy Choux is very consistent will be there at the end. Worrim came with a massive run over 1400 recently and jumps from it’s lowest weight in a long time, expect a bold showing. The other two hopes are Testa My Patience and King’s Rose (forgive last up lost plate).

Horse odds as of Friday 10pm AEST
Wall Street $15.50 win $4.70 place, Woorim $18.50 Win $5.55 place, Jimmy Choux $6.20 Win $2.55 place

Race 7
There have been massive claims on a horse in this race called Lalla Rookh. Forgive for last start where it was rated to win. We are happy to risk it in this race. We are also looking towards two others with form. The first is Avienus. Forgive last start also and look to the previous runs where 0.8L second to Descarado and 0.5L 2nd to Extra Zero, both quality horses. The other horse i Dance With Her. Will be much better fo the 5kg drop in weight. Last start Dunn didn’t ride it out and cost us a place. Luckily, Melham onboard.

Horse odds as of Friday 10pm AEST
Lalla Rookh $45.00 win $15.00 place, Avienus $9.50 Win $3.00 place, Dance With Her $32.00 Win $8.50 place

Race 8
Shootoff has strong claims in this race after a respectable run in it’s last two races, especially with a 2.3L loss to My Kingdom of Fife. Macedonian also has strong claims after finishing 8th in the Caulfield Cup and most recently 2nd to Niwot, both strong form lines. Bauer has arguebly the best form line with a 3rd placing 1.5L loss to Dunaden while being blocked for a run in the Geelong Cup. At $2, it is far too short.

Horse odds as of Friday 10pm AEST
Shootoff $14.00 win $3.25 place, Macedonian $7.00 Win $2.10 place

Race 9
We have been all over Amaethon the last two runs and sadly it has fallen short twice, not even placing. The 1400 looks too far and we can’t see why they are persisting. The form in this race comes from Stirling Grove with an impressive 1200m swoop to get within 1.8L of Sister Madly and before that, 4.5L behind Black Caviar. A 3.5kg disadvantage does hurt but Amaethon suffers similar. Ego’s Dare is an interesting runner who comes back from Group 3 and Group 2 company where it has not been disgraced. Will enjoy a fastly run race.
The other two hopes in this race are Lady Mahler and Bondarchuk on form. The only problem Lady Mahler faces is the barrier 14 draw which will be hard to lead from.

Horse odds as of Friday 10pm AEST
Stirling Grove $4.20 win $2.05 place, Lady Mahler $12.50 Win $4.50 place, Ego’s Dare $14.50, $5.50

Please note
Majority of  prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not         recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet         listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

The Profits

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