Horse Racing Tips – Moonee Valley + Ascot – Saturday 19 November 2011

Horse Racing - Australia

Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 Number 10 – Galbraith at $26
Won +45.5 Units

Race 1
A very hard race to predict to start the day. We are expecting a VERY fast run race due to so many ‘front runners’ so we are going to discount anything that has to come from the back.
After having only one start on a Good track with a ‘average to good’ time, we cannot back Roxit at the $4 being offered so looking elsewhere. She will be there at the finish and well breed.
The other three we like in this race are Rescue Mission, The Counterfeiter and Showabitofheart.
With a fast pace predicted, Showabitofheart is our value outsider in this race. Down 1.5kg from it’s fastest time of 57.9 on a dead track two back, it looks suited for this race.
The Counterfeiter has a great record against better horses than what is in this but staying at 57kg, we think Rescue Mission, who has won 2 of last 5 compared to TC who has only won one start ever, has a great shot.
Rescue Mission has progressed well and apart from a race where he suffered interference at the start and couldn’t come back from the back of the field, has been within 1.3L of the winners. The shorter distance should suit in our mind.
Back Both Rescue Mission at $7.50 and Showabitofheart at $17 to win and place 1 Unit each side
Won by Rescue Mission. Showabitofheart no place to start the day +5.8 units

Race 2
Jumpin Jack Cash won here two runs back at the same distance by 5L. The only concern is a dead track, but when you consider he has won 2 from 7 on Dead, you keep looking his way. We backed him last run and won’t be jumpin off this run. Has alot of talent.
The other chances are the other top 3 horses in Pergola, Palmero and Prussian Officer. A good run from either Brainy Boy or Count Lotus at longer odds wouldn’t shock but can’t see them winning here.
Back Jumpin Jack Cash at $3.40 to win and place 1 Unit each side
Won by Jumpin Jack Cash resulting in +2.85 units

Race 3
We have this race to four horses.
The value in this race is Serene Taine who ran well last up and gains 4kg from 2 runs back 3.3L defeat here over 100M longer. Expect the weight to play a part and Dead track to help.
Saint Angers, out of Redoute’s Choice has a 38% win rate and 88% place rate. Ignore it’s last start against a much better field, barrier 3 will help. Only question is the 57.5kg on it’s back, but expect a strong run.
The other two we think will run well are Limerock and Maquina.
Back Saint Angers at $5.30 and Serene Taine at $30 to win and place 1 Unit each side
Both unplaced -4 Units

Race 4
Lay of the race is The Fairy’s Kiss. A  great horse but expect it will find a tough ride on the Dead track and is too short at $3.30.
There are three horses that take our fancy. One is Shadow West but when taking into account the 58kg, we cannot look her way.
This leaves Reigning Lass and Florets. Both out of quality horses, Reigning Lass has been very impressive it’s last three starts. The only concern is a fastly run race but with 55.5kg, it should be able to last. Only concern is the quality in this race.
Florets has been battling against much tougher horses and knows what 57.5kg feels like on it’s back. Will be looking to go one better than last up 3rd by 0.4L.
Back Florets at $7.10 1 Unit on Win + Place and Reigning Lass at $5.10 0.5 Units Win + Place.
Both unplaced -3 Units
Bet put up on Twitter feed: Draw Forward 0.5 Units E/W at $27 – WON +15 Units

Race 5
Another race with a few good hopes.
The value for this race is Tactless who has won 1 and placed in 3 of her 5 starts over 1200. Newitt onboard always a good booking and first up after a few months off should be ready to fly.
The 2 horses with big shots here are Avionics, Cat’s Pyjamas and Fabulist.
We really liked Avionics first up run on a Dead track last start. The only query is the extra 3kg.
Cat’s Pyjamas is a great horse whose times tell us he will be there or there abouts at the end. Is it too short at $3 first up? 4 Wins 2 places from 7 starts record over distance and 2 wins from 3 first up starts.
Back Cats Pyjamas at $3.00 1.5 Units to Win and 2 Units to Place and Tactless at $16.00 0.5 Units Win + Place. Back Avionics 0.2 Units (saver bet) to win at $5.10
Unplaced -4.7 Units

Race 6
The value of this race is Light Vision. Will enjoy the drop back in distance and if producing a similar run to that in the Group 3 2.8L loss to December Draw, will be there at the finish. Only concern is weight. Last win was on similar weight, distance and track cond at Caulfield in September.
Look no further than Eraset. VERY unlucky last two starts to just not get there and enjoys another drop down in weight. 4 wins 4 places from 10 starts over distance and has the majority of it’s wins on dead tracks. Finished within 1.5L in the last 4 runs. Will go very well.
Back Eraset at $4.20 1.5 Units on Win + Place and Light Vision at $55 0.5 Units Win + Place.

Race 7
Another open race. If Saint Angers wins in an eariler race. Look towards Galileo Gold here (otherwise skip).
The value of this race is Fabriano coming into the race off 51kg, 3kg less than two back 1.3L loss to Testas Double over Course, Distance and Dead Track.
The others we like in this race are:
Finiguerra. Great run against Hes Remarkable (If the form eariler in day works out then get on here). Onyl concern is 59kg and Barrier 17 draw.
Bellissimo the bridesmaid. Never won on a dead track but Hung out 2nd last start against a handy Fawkner. Will run a true race as always and has placed in 6 of last 7.
If you can forgive Elusive King for it’s last up run, then you have to include it here. Hasn’t won since it’s maiden but has placed 6 of last 9.
Back Finiguerra at $9.10 0.5 Units on Win + Place and Fabriano at $23 0.5 Units Win + Place.
Unplaced -2 Units

Race 8
General Truce at $4.40 is our lay here. Times not good enough to win.
The value of this race is Galbraith. Down 4.5kg off last run 2.3L loss to Definitely Ready after all kinds of problems in race, a source has told us he is back to best and will go very well here. Loves Moonee Valley and we have Galbraith on top at large odds.
Definitely Ready isn’t a fan of swimming with 1 win 1 place from 6 starts over dead, slow or heavy with a massively great formline on Good. Considering the Dead 5, we just couldn’t be around him apart from a saver.
Canali is an interesting runner with only 1 non-placing from it’s last 12 runs which includes 6 wins. Has travelled the country and should find best here. Will be a very fast pace.
The last horse with a chance is Rocking Force. Up 2.5KG is the only concern but will be there at the finish.
Lay General Truce 1 Unit to win
Won +1 Unit
Back Galbraith 1.5 Units E/W at $26
Won +45.5 Units
Back Canali 1 Unit E/W at $8.10
Unplaced -2 Units
Saver bet of 0.25 Units on Definitely Ready and Rocking Force at $6.80 and $7.90
Didn’t win -0.5 Units

Please Note:
Majority of  prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not           recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet           listed above. Bet at your own risk.

Author

mm

The Profits

The Profits was first created in 2010 as a hub for owners Drew and Euan to share their knowledge. Since then, our team has expanded over the years, and we now have eight individual writers now employed to share their knowledge on specific sports. “Surround yourself with the dreamers and the doers, the believers and thinkers, but most of all, surround yourself with those who see the greatness within you, even when you don’t see it yourself.”

Leave a Reply