How are our tips going?
Since October 8, we are up 125 units (betting 1 unit E/W on every tip up – we have changed this slightly this week). What is a unit? A unit is the standard amount you bet (for example: If you bet $25 E/W on every race, 1 unit = $25).
Pick of the day
No.13 Masthead at $5.10 to win
Leg 1 – 13, 3, 9
Leg 2 – 4, 8, 9
Leg 3 – 1, 3
Leg 4 – 1, 4, 9, 11
Leg 5 – 2, 4, 9
Leg 6 – 3,4,7
$97 for 10%
Normally a race we are happy to miss, we are tipping up Andre Roo Hoo ontop in the first. Watch out for the money around Vital with Mc Evoy onboard and a good trial win, could run very well.
Back Andre Roo Hoo 1 unit $4 to win and 2 units $1.60 to place
Placed – 3rd. +0.2 Units
Another open race for a Melbourne meeting. There are five quality chance son this race and we have chosen one on time in Combat Kitty.
Won very well last up when checked near the 400m being forced back and coming home huge late. Has ran some quality times over this distance and is running well not losing by more than 0.4L the last 3 runs. Last up win was on same distance also.
The next horse we really like is Miss StellaBelle who has finished 1st x2 and 2nd x2 in it’s last four starts. Got struck with a bit of interference at the start last up which cost it the desired positon in the race and the 0.5L loss. Will go close. Only concern is first start over 1400
The other three with big hopes are Shopaholic, Ever the Same and Anise.
Back Combat Kitty 1 unit at $4.20 to win and 2 units at $1.62 to place
Back Miss Stellabelle 0.2 unit at $5.40 (Saver Bet)
Unplaced. -3 Units
2nd. -0.2 Units
Hate this race. Very hard to pick a winner but it’s hard to ignore the 5L win of Jumpin Jack Cash last up and a record of 2 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds from it’s last 8 starts.
Back Jumpin Jack Cash 0.5 Units $6.10 to win and 2 Units $1.90 to place
Didn’t run well at all. -2.5 Units
Back Crafty Cruiser 0.5 Units at $28 to win and 0.5 Units $5.50 to place
Great run very unlucky not to place. -1 Unit
We like two horses in this race. The first horse is Masthead. Has been against some VERY handy horses and unlucky to not have won at least one of it’s last 5 starts. Three of those were against Sepoy so forgive those and the two others it lost by 0.2L. The great news? Masthead is 3.5KG better off than any of those runs in lesser quality fields. Big value in this race.
The other horse we like is Soul. The weight of 59kg will be hard to deal with but on times, Soul is going to be very hard to hold out. Will loom very late and expect a closer up run than normal with this weight.
Back Masthead 1.5 Units at $5.10 to win and 3 Units at $2.00 to place
2nd. +1.5 Units
Back Soul 1 Units at $16 to win
Won. +15 Units
There are two big hopes in this one with a minor chance also. Under The Eiffel is a quality horse who has brought home the bacon both starts recently. Up in class but down 5kg in weight, this looks suited and we have UTE ontop on times.
Launay has recorded a better time recently but with weight differences we have UTE still on top.. but Launay is a very big shot. Even though this is still a Group 3, there are less quality horses in this one and Launay should run on well.
The final horse is Nine Tales with good form behind Facile Tigre and hes an Angel is the last two. Down in weight, expect a good run.
1 Unit Under The Eiffel to win $2.60 and 2 Units at $1.45 to place
Won +2.5 Units
0.2 Units Launay to win at $5.60
4th -0.2 Units
Americain deserves to be ontop here but we like the look of Manighar in this race at a great price. Will run close to the front and run on well. Was only a small distance behind Americain in the Melbourne Cup and beat Americain home over in France off similar weights.
Back Manighar 1 Unit Win at $17 and 1.5 Units to Place at $4.10
2nd: +3.65 Units
Galah is FAR too short in this race and we cannot touch him. He has won his last 4 with 3 of those by under 0.3L and goes from his highest weight ever (lost by 0.2L with it first run ever).
We backed Mahisara last up but are concerned about the 1600 coming out of a More Than Ready breeding.
We have this down to four horses are good odds.
The first is Saint Etienne. Lost by 0.3L last up to Galah. Starting from Barrier 3, should run on well at big odds.
The second horse is Highly Recommended that finished 0.1L behind Galah last start. Considering this, you are getting great odds.
First Course ran a good race but we expect a middle of the race run this time up.
Finally, we like Niagara who recorded some great times recently and was unlucky two starts back in a quality race.
Back Highly Recommended at $14 to win for 1 Unit
Back Highly Recommended at $3.50 to place for 1 Unit
Given a horrible ride and made to come from about 10-15L back (got within 2L at finish for 4th) -2 Units
Back Niagara at $12 and First Course at $25 to win for 0.5 Unit each – 2nd and unplaced -1 Unit
Once again, a number of chances in a quality race. We have taken it down to two main chances.
We have an outsider on top here. Having won 2 from 2 at this Distance and running well first up recently, expecting a quality run closer to the front from barrier 5. On times, will be there at the end and has performed in quality fields in the past.
The other horse we like has been one we have backed it’s last two starts in Extra Zero. 1L and 1.3L loses in second recently, this one looks an easier field for Extra Zero and the distance suits.
Back Folding Gear at $13 to win and Extra Zero at $8 to win – Both for 1 Unit
2nd -1 Unit, Unplaced -1 Unit
Back Extra Zero to Place at $2.50 to place for 1.5 Units
Unplaced -1.5 Units
Our value pick that got up at 30s the other week in Sophie’s Spirit starts again her off 57.5kg which for us is just too much over an extra 1500 so we are going to look elsewhere considering she will lead up.
Our top pick of this race is a speccy. Dasqudi has ran very well in much higher quality races so forgive it’s last run over a distance that doesn’t suit and as it’s got a terrible record first up while it’s second up is 3 starts 1 win 1 place.
The other two we like in this race are Hinemoa and Hi Belle. Hinemoa won for us at 28s the other week and ran VERY wide and took a horrible line last up. Forgive that start and it rates well in this race.
Hi Belle has finished first x2 and second x2 in it’s last 5 runs. Barrier suits and will run a great race.
Back Dasoudi at $18 for 0.5 Units to win and Hi Belle at $5.5 and Hinemoa at $10 for 1 unit each to win.
Unplaced -0.5 Units, Won +4.5 Units, 3rd -1 Unit
Back Hi Belle to place at $2 for 1 Unit
Won +1 Unit
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.