A 5 horse race that is very hard to read. Members Joy comes in as $2.30 fav for a reason, an impressive win by 2.5L in a barrier trial and is a Hussonet filly. Suggests it will go very close today and we are going to have a small e/w on it to start the day.
Back Members Joy 0.5 Units E/W at $2.40
Won +0.8 Unit
A battle of the top three horses, we can only look towards one. Down 1.5kg from last start 1.5L loss on a heavy track over the same distance, Spatha comes into thisr ace with a 1 win 1 place from 3 runs over 1400 record. Starting from gate 2, he will run to the lead and be there at the finish. His last up effort suggests he will handle a slow track.
Back Spatha 1 Unit E/W at $5.00
One of the hardest races of the day to pick. Dasoudi was highly disappointing last up when we had it as an outsider with a chance. You have to ask yourself, is this the race she has been looking for considering she was racing in group 1s in NZ.
Let’s be happy comes in with two impressively close wins over 1200 but is 0/0/2 over 1400M. What works in her favour is the 1 win 1 place from 2 starts on Slow. Having won 4, 2nd in one and unplaced in 2 from last 7, you can’t discount this horse.
The other two with shots are She’s Gifted who can go the distance and looks well suited, only question is the ground. Finally Tariana comes in with great times and form off a great barrier draw and weight. If leaders are winning the first two, look towards Tariana, Shes Gifted and Lets be happy who will all be at the front.
*Bet undecided, will watch first 2 races* –
We like three horses in this fight. We like Diamondsondinside in this race. Down in class, same weight with an impressive win last up over Tube. Also a win before that. Only concern is the track.
Niptious is huge value in this race. His last 3 runs have been on Good or Dead track, which he has never won on. He has 4 wins on Slow tracks including a 9L 4 back win in Open company. Off 53kg, he will go VERY close here.
Finally, Shezaten is huge value off 50kg. Has the times to win and very unlucky last up. Don’t overlook her!
1 unit E/w on Shezaten at $9 and 1 unit E/W Niptious $32 and 0.5 unit E/W diamondsontheinside
Snitza deserves to be the favourite here but should he be this short? We don’t think so. Certainly has claims off the last run but if you look at the two before that, including one on a SLOW track, we don’t think he should be this short and are happy to take him on.
There are two horses we really like here. The first is Abitofado. Down in class and off 55.5kg, he will run really well here. won 3, placed in 2 from 10 on slow ground helps alot and has won 2 placed in 4 from 9 on this track. When you also look at 4 wins 6 places from 16 starts over distance, can’t discount this horse.
The other is a horse in form. This is a big step up in class for Full Peal but on times, it can be there at the end. On recent form, suggests it will hold the ground and will appreciate the 4kg drop in weight.
Back Abitofado 1 unit e/w at $5.50, Back Full Pearl 0.5 unit to win.
What a massive race. There are so many good horses with a shot here.
We have a New Zealand horse on top here in Chinon. Was very unlucky last up when interfereced with at 200m and would have most likely won. Down 3.5kg and over a longer distance, looks well placed here. Enjoys the distance and has the most wins on a slow track.
The two we have behind it are quality horses. The first was defeated by 0.1L two back by December Draw which is quality form. Has won it’s only start on a slow track and coems in off it’s lowest weight ever in 51kg. Expect it to be there at the end. Should have trained on.
The other two we have in this are Freereturn and Dash for Viz who both come in off good wins. Freereturn beat Dash last up who was disappointing but Dash comes in with 2 wins 1 place on slow compared to Dash a big unpon on slow track and 0 wins on heavy.
Back Chinon 1 Unit E/w at $15 and Back Under the Hat 1 Unit E/w at $6.80
There are two horses with great form lines and recent times. THey are Happy Joker and Emma Princess.
If we had to split these two we would put Emma Princess on top, but we are happy to back both of them as it will be a close race.
Back Emma Princess 1 Unit E/W at $10 (should start higher) and Happy Joker 1 Unit E/W at $10
A very hard race to pick a winner. We are looking towards Cadenzia who is down in class, 3kg better off and has a 1/2 record from 4 starts over distance and 1 win from 2 starts on a slow track. Should be better for a 7 month lay-off.
We are happy to lay Riceman here. The 11 year old has had a great career but we can’t see it getting up.
Back Cadenzia 1.25 Units E/W at $7.00
Majority of prices quoted are from Betfair.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.