What an exciting day of racing. We won’t be doing much tweeting as normal from @TheProfitsComAu – as we will be at the track! We will be adjusting our bets in play as usual and hopefully we can get some 3G to at least put some important changes up on twitter if they are needed! As you can guess, Red is our first pick in a race, Blue is second and Green is equal third (only used in one race).
**Best of the day – Race 8 No.1 – Anabandana – Currently $4.20 fixed** – Valid run but finished 2nd
Our Spirits Way made it’s way into our ‘Don’t Back’ book last start not being able to beat Go Katrina home, who failed to place last night at MV.
On the other hand, Spirit Song (WON paying $1.90) has been delivering for us with 3 wins from the last 4 starts. I have heard people suggesting she might not make the 1800 trip but that’s just stupid. She lost that race to a VERY handy horse.. and they were 3-4L clear of any others at the end. She is currently $2.15 fixed and will probably jump around $1.90. Ask yourself, how often does she win here? We have her winning 7/10 and are happy with the price. Let’s look at the others with a chance outside of those two. With rain on the cards, Orchard Street comes in as an interesting runner. Has times of a good runner, started Fav in last two starts with MANY excuses. If has perfect race, in this at a massive price. Finally, Tellora shouldn’t be overlooked off a reasonable weight with Mallyon onboard. Won over 1600 by 7L two back, expect to go to front and try do the same here.
I wish we could avoid these types of races but sadly you get one every major race day. Two first timers and 5 with a maximum of 2 races.
Let’s start from the top. Cambiaso’s last two races suggest it wants a wet track so avoiding as not expect to get past a dead track at this type of day.
Ferment ran a decent time 1100 first up and was poor second out. May run on but others more favourable.
Andre Roo Hoo (4th) will be there at the end, that is for sure. A fast tempo will suit and we are not sure there will be a front runner trying to get them both in 57’s.
Rusambo is the favourite at $2.84 as we write this and we are shocked. It has the worst times of all the horses and will be tested even more here. Will admit we haven’t seen a trial but we much prefer the others.
Of all the horses that have raced, Planet Voyage (Unplaced) starting from the barrier 4, a nice 3rd to Jimando last up even after hanging in. Bred well and from Moody stable with Nolen onboard. Will be our pick but for the very minimal amount.
Probably our best tweet tip last week was to Lay Diamond Earth at a very low price as it would die in the final 100m. We got against it at $1.02 for a large amount, it died in the final metres and we won big! So did many others
Time to stop bragging and look at the race!
There are some very very very handy horses here with BIG futures ahead of them.
The cream rises to the top so lets start there. Samaready (Won paying $4.20) won first up over 1000 in an amazing 56.8 on a dead Flemington track by 1.3L. There are two differences in this race, A very fast tempo isn’t a sure thing, a dead track isn’t a sure thing and the horse is jumping from barrier 10 not from barrier 1.
Three others jump out at us. Real Stole (Did not back due to Andre Roo Hoo fail previous race) – Unplaced won a 16 horse 1000m race at Flemington by 1.3L. If Andre Roo Hoo wins the previous race, this is good form line to think about.
Formidable has been ridden two ways, out front and from the middle. It seems to be able to do both and I would expect it to go forward from barrier 4 today and be in with a good shot.
Finally, Malasun won a handy 11 horse Caulfield race by 1.3L first up in good times.
Real Stole is great value at $18 fixed and is a nice E/W bet here but Samaready is the one we are really liking the look of.
A great way with a good lineup. Expect it to be completed in the 1:35’s.
Let’s start with the West Australian invader. Ranger (Unplaced – poor ride, waited too long) is a brilliant runner FAR down in class here even though it’s up against some of the best. Has proven it can run a 1.35 time.
Shadowfax is a talented horse that has a chance but is just too unpredictable here.
At The Heads is an unknown really over this distance. It’s last four runs have been magical but excluding last start, they ahve been in lesser company. Love the horse but can’t have it on top here.
Vivid Vixen (Unplaced) is an interesting runner. Excuse first up, it never goes well but has a 2 wins 1 place from 3 second up. Add that to it’s 4 wins 3 places from 8 starts over distance and 3 wins 2 places from 8 starts in class and it has your interest, from a low 55kg.
Shout Out Loud has some ok form but is up 2kg and 200m from last run.
Finally you can’t discount Manighar.
Let’s start from what form may tell us. If At The heads wins the previous (doubtful) then Pied A Terre is getting shunned by us for no reason. Our current reason is that it hasn’t beaten anything good and this is too strong for it.
Another horse to strike off the list for us is Adamantium. Never run the extra 200m so doubtful for us.
Huegill is 1/1 over 1400 but that was a VERY slow time race. Didn’t show enough last start for us to back it.
Bombalatomba came with an epic run last start to claim the win over 1400 in a very fast time as one to be watched.
Sabrage has performed well in this class in the past and will be there at the end for sure. Interestingly, has won both it’s races at Caulfield but may be more suited to longer distances.
Specter (Unplaced) is a horse with great potential and is back in the grade it needs to perform. Barrier is a concern to slot in correctly but expect a three/four wide run on the corner into the straight to loom late!
After a long spell, We feel Collar (Unplaced) will be set to take this race down at a great price of around $20 (no real market value in place yet apart from $18 on Betfair and no backing money). Barrier 7 will suit and expect Collar to push up to sit top 3/4 all race. Has won 2 from 3 over distance and placed in only performance at Caulfield. Last win over 1400 on Slow track is better than quite a few’s times over 1400 on Good tracks.
Black Caviar is going to win this but Southern Speed is the value of the race for a place (Placed – 2nd – $1.45). If you can get anything around the $1.45 mark snap it up!
Eagle Falls – WON Paying $30! is a group 1 winning horse with a fast 1:02.2 run.. at Caulfield. That was 2nd up but it has a decent record first up. At $31 fixed, should be worth a spec.
One of the horses that delivered the goods for us last week was First Command (2nd). Slightly up in distance, First Command has won 10 and placed in 6 of 23 starts over this distance range. Perfect barrier draw and Arnold on board both positives. Dead or Good track both suit. 5 wins 2 places from 9 on track also!
Weekend Special (Unplaced) is a horse to keep your eye on. 2 wins 3 placings from 5 starts over distance.. it has a 100% placing record from 8 starts. It has not been beaten by more than 0.4L in it’s last five starts!
Decircles(Unplaced) may have won last start if it didn’t have so much go against it and is a threat here. Expect it to be a little closer to the front this run.
Finally the Fav Karuta Queen. Getting every favour from the handicappers with 52.5kg on it’s back. She will look the winner at some stage in the race and we hope that stage isn’t across the line. We are happy to risk her here, as we did when she got destroyed last start by African Pulse.
We have to also acknowledge Hot Spin who we don’t think will win but will run a valid race and be in it.
Anabandana (2nd) has an amazing record coming over from New Zealand. It has finished 1st 5 times, 2nd 3 times and 3rd once in all of its racing career. To add to this, Quite a few of those were GP1 class! It is down in class here and has run some amazingly fast times. It will be pretty hard to beat this horse home.
Two and three looks at the field and we can’t go past it. Even @TheSharkTweet put it up as his best of the week and we can see why. This should be your banker bet in anything today. Oh and the horse is 4 wins 1 place over this distance
Hopefully we will have had a win in the previous so this won’t be the get out stakes.
You should be hoping for it with so many great horses.
I’m going to start with one of my favs. Ravenous Lass has run some huge times over 1000 but remains a question mark over 1200. With only a placing to it’s name over the distance, must be an avoid.
There has been talk around for Irish Dream in this race but with a 1/0 from 5 first up record and poor winning times over 1200, I cannot see it winning this.
The same goes for Koonoomoo with it’s times taking it out of contention for us (and with Set The Course failing last night).
Psychologist (Won paying $19!) is an interesting runner. Down 4KG and up in class. Hasn’t been more than 1.5L away the last 3 starts, all at Caulfield. Has won in this class before.
Big raps around for Miss Octopussy. You knoo the horse if you have any interest in the sport but I cannot see how it is so short with a less than average first up record. Can’t have it!
Finally we look at Let’s Be Happy (3rd) who has won 6 of it’s last 8 starts with a second in there also to Scarf. Barrier 12 is a little bit of an issue but not much. Down in class and on equal KG from winning last up, this is a horse that just battles on! A smart time last up over 1400 will enjoy the 1200 and should be winning this!
Majority of prices quoted are from TAB Fixed Odds.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.