Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 3 on 19 June 2014. We started Day 2 with a very nice win but ended with only the one win for the day. Treve was super disappointing and the money for The Fugue was telling. Sky Lantern was very disappointing as well. We move onwards and we are going for value today. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Best
Ascot Race 4 Estimate
Next Best
Ascot Race 2 Barley Mow
Best Value
Ascot Race 1 Baitha Alga
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Free UK form from Timeform – http://www.timeform.com/free/
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Royal Ascot Race 1
Baitha Alga was eye-catching last start winning by a strong 2 lengths in a very positive time. Has come up a very good E/W price.
Mukhmal impressed in both his two runs this prep and has to make another step up today. Has the ability.
The Great War hs gone up an odds on pop after winning as $1.30 and $1.10 favourite the past two starts. Deserves our respect, but at the price, not our money.
Comments: Very happy to take a chance on Baitha Alga improving again.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Baitha Alga E/W
Royal Ascot Race 2
Barley Mow is the one to beat today. Certainly did a lot wrong first two runs this prep before getting the win. Ran well last start on the slow but is better with less give in the ground like today. Has to be respected.
Cannock Chase has to be respected on the last two runs but I believe will find a few too good today.
Cloudscape was super poor two back but back in class last start ran ok but still couldn’t get the win. Similar form lines to Cannock Chase.
Mutakayyef ran a close 2nd to Barley Mow two runs back and then won by a lazy 7L in maiden class to get that out of the way. Always in it at the finish. Has to be respected.
Obliterator on first up run was solid but last two runs were fails. Hard to have at the price today even though back on Good.
Spark Plug has been going through the fairly easy grades. Big step up here but can run nicely.
Comments: Hard to go past Barley Mow today. Will be in it at the end for sure.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Barley Mow E/W
Royal Ascot Race 3
Four runners stand out from the rest.
Final Score won very well on the wet and then transitioned to the good last start to take out a similar grade race nicely. Will run well today.
Bright Approach was up in class last start and ran as well as could be expected. I liked the horses movement and should run nicely again today.
Inchila’s race was over from the start in harder company than this last start but ran well for 4th with a lot going wrong. Looks to have some class.
Vazira is the stand out runner today and Sea The Stars are flying at Ascot this year. Shown best on wet, but going gangbusters.
Comments: Small win bets on both.
Confidence 70%
Startegy: Vazira to win. Smaller bet Final Score.
Royal Ascot Race 4
Ahzeemah: Very disappointing first up run and to be honest the two to finish last prep were poor as well. Hard to have in this quality race today.
Altano: Very easy win firs tup in Group 3 company but this is certainly much harder. Last prep did win well in Group 1 company over 4000m. Shown his best recent form on tracks wetter than this is the issue.
Brown Panther: Showed his best runs early on in prep the last four preps and just seems to fall away when put into the harder levels. First two runs have been very solid but up in class today and up in weight, he will have to improve AGAIN.
Oriental Fox: Hasn’t shown us anything to suggest could even place today.
Royal Diamond: Group 3 winner last prep at this course and has some nice form lines that have to be respected. First up run was solid, but poorly weighted today against Leading Light is an issue.
Saddler’s Rock: A much better horse than we have seen all prep. Not sure how we can give the horse a chance on what we have seen.
Simenon: All three runs this prep have been average at best. Crying out for this distance but hasn’t won since 2012 for a reason.
Tac De Boistron: Shown his best on the wet but does go well over this distance. First two runs this prep were solid but has to find another gear today without the wet.
Havana Beat: Can’t see measuring up here.
Leading Light: Won here last year and showed his class. One of my favourite horses of 2013 and for good reason, he has class. First up win was very very good over the 2800m and he certainly needed the run to be able to turn up in this class. He excels on this surface is the key for mine and shouldn’t have an issue with the distance.
Ralston Road: Measured up in handicap class but not in this level. Not here.
Shwaiman: Couldn’t win a listed race last start but does want further.
Estimate: Won this race last year and only run since was on slow. Have to just simply ignore that run and rate on two previous runs which were very very good. Shown best on Good tracks. Sensational value again this year.
Missunited: Listed winner but not Group class.
Pale Mimosa: Last run of last prep was solid. First up this prep well beaten by Leading Light but will appreciate the extra distance today.
Comments: I’m a little confused on how to play this race. I would be backing Leading Light at around the $3 quote and I think the horse is the real deal, but $2.10? I can’t take it. On the other hand, I think Estimate is the clear value today. Won this race last year as $4.50 favourite and it was a great win. Similar track today and won 3 from 4 at track, I can’t see any reason to oppose her here at double figure odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Estimate E/W
Royal Ascot Race 5
Horribly open race. Horrible.
Magnus Maximus on top here based on last start run. Was very solid.. but this race is crazy open. Not going any deeper on form than this for you, don’t bet here!
Comments: Don’t bet here.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Magnus Maximus E/W
Royal Ascot Race 6
Several chances in this but I have it down to 4.
Truth of Dare with a 3kg claim today comes into this very well off a nice 3rd last start. Has to improve again but is classy enough to win.
Elite Army comes in as the favourite after a strong win over Gold Trail last start. Has the ability.
Personal Opinion is a good horse who has always been close at every start. Ran a close 2nd last start to Arab Dawn.
Continues to progress through the grades and has to step up again but is 3 from 3 this prep for a reason.
Comments: Small stakes at best.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Elite Army on top. Trust or Dare smaller bet.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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