Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 1. It has been a long wait but we are here for our first Royal Ascot carnival and super excited! The day starts off with a Group 1 with the winner of the richest race in the world Animal Kingdom the short priced favourite. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Best
Ascot Race 1 Animal Kingdom
Next Best
Ascot Race 2 Shea Shea
Best Value
Ascot Race 4 Thunder Strike
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 1
Aljamaaheer: Ran well enough last start at Newbury to suggest can run well again today but hasn’t won in a long time and needs to produce something special. Can place.
Animal Kingdom: Previous Kentucky Derby winner and this year’s Dubai World Cup winner, Animal Kingdom’s win was huge at Meydan and the price looks great today to back that up with another win.
Chil The Kite: Ran well enough last start but looks up against it. Needs to find 2-3 lengths at least.
Declaration Of War: Two good wins until last start finding a new class of horse. Hard to see a turn around on 3 better than it last start in this race.
Gabrial: Spencer not riding today which is a clear indication he thinks the horse isn’t good enough. Form not strong enough this prep.
Gregorian: Solid form lines and looks to be over the odds today. Expect a strong run as is suited by distance.
Libranno: Simply not good enough for this.
Monseiur Chevalier: Can’t see this one placing today. No thanks.
Penitent: Decent enough run last start but has to improve infront of a few of these. Doesn’t look likely.
Sovereign Debt: Improved effort for 2nd last start at Newbury. Should be peaking today and is a big chance at the price.
Trade Storm: Spencer believes this horse has all of the traits to win today and took the ride. Won 2 of last 3 at Meydan with a strong 4th in the Dubai Duty Free. Back to 1600m which suits the horse.
Trumpet Major: On recent form you would find it hard to see this runner measuring up. Could place though.
Elusive Kate: Buick likes this horse and jumps on. Hasn’t gone around since last October but has won Group 1s previously and looks the main danger of them all to the favourite.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: It is really hard to go past Animal Kingdom today. The only issue if any is the distance, but I don’t think so. I will most likely be putting down a saver on Elusive Kate as well.
Ascot Race 2
Ballesteros: Looking for a bog track and won’t get it today. Can’t see the horse go close.
Doc Hay: Not measuring up this prep and won’t place or even go place.
Heeratt: Probably has to put in a career best run just to go close today. Hard to see it really but has ability.
Jack Dexter: Not the worst run you will ever see in the Duke of York when finishing 6th. Got blocked and could have finished closer. Could place.
Kingsgate Native; Returned in awesome form this prep. Good first up and then got a close win last start. Can run well but hard to see a clear win today.
Medicean Man: Ran 4th in this last year and looks to be going better this year with a Dubai win and then Haydock win last start. Has to find much more though today. Price does look overs.
More In Time: Continues to run well this prep but would have wanted the horse to win last start in France to be winning in this class.
Pearl Secret: Hasn’t been seen since August 2012 when won 4 from 5. Certainly wouldn’t be overlooking this runner.
Prohibit: 2011 winner of this event but best looks to be far behind.
Shamexpress: Go Aussie! You have to give Shamexpress every chance today off that HUGE win over Moment of Change. Newitt will have every chance to let Sham go today and hit the line hard late. If backing, don’t go anywhere near the totes, go for Betfair or UK bookies for overs.
Shea Shea: Won a group 1 in Dubai recently over distance and comes into this very well with 4 wins from 5 last starts. Clear top pick on form.
Sole Power: Couldn’t get past Shea Shea last two runs in Meydan but did get a win back at Newmarket recently before disappointing at Haydock. A big chance today.
Spirit Quartz: Won well last start but this looks a bigger step up in class. Has the ability but not sure measures up in this Group 1.
Stepper Point: Not good enough for this.
Swiss Spirit: Was a very strong finish in the Temple Stakes last start and could suggest will be peaking today. Probably has excuses again today though.
Angels Will Fall: They sure will fall, but they won’t be winning.
Bungle InTheJungle: Well held last start and hard to see the progression required.
Reckless Abandon: Unbeaten 2YO runner and ran very well in the Temple when was just run down late. Happy to take it on today myself.
Hoyam: Hard to see the progression to match up here.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Shea Shea looks a great price today and will be the one to beat while ShamExpress is currently overs (really respect the form).
Ascot Race 3
Dawn Approach: Didn’t settle at all last start pulling the whole trip and didn’t seem to enjoy the distance. Back to 1600m today and looks suited again. The favourite for a reason. Quality runner.
Dundonnell: Slowly progressing through the grades and impressed last start.. but probably not up to this grade of race today.
Geroge Vancouver: Good form last prep but hasn’t shown anything this year or prep so hard to suggest can even place.
Glory Awaits: Looks a massive price when you consider the last start 2nd to Dawn Approach. Did peak and will probably find it hard to reproduce.. but if does.. goes close!
Leitir Mor: May just be a pacemaker in this race which is represented by the 200-1 odds.
Magician: Doesn’t need to pull a rabit out of the hat to win this today. Comes in as second favourite on last two runs but the big concern is the setback the horse reportidly had last week.
Mars: Looks to be unders today off last two runs. Certainly a good horse but surely doesn’t win this.
Mshawish: Hard to see a winning run today.
Toronado: Could take this field by storm late. I do think the horse isn’t value at the price though. Others better on recent form.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Hard to go past Dawn Approach here. Glory Awaits looks a nice E/W chance also.
Ascot Race 4
Bahamaian Heights: Hard to see how this runner even got into the race.
Championship: Maiden winner only but was a decent win. Stable seem to be confident and always target this race. Could go well.
Dubawi Fun: Hard to see the progression from that maiden to win this.
Jallota: Took three runs to break maiden status. No thanks.
Lanark: Won well enough last start but the first up loss makes you look elsewhere.
Mawfoor: Happy to ignore first up with this runner. Was very good 2nd up and well breed.
Parbold: Looks to be progressive but for far can he go? Not sure this is for him.
Riverboat Springs: Really liked last start 2nd run when wasn’t in a great position and came home well. Will be better suited by track today also.
Rogue Wave; Debut? Can’t have here.
Rosso Corsa: Took three attempts to break maiden. No thanks.
Sir John Hawkins: Didn’t impress me first up considering the odds today. Others look better value.
Stubbs: Looks the one to beat on form but is winning a 4 horse listed race really enough to enstill you at $4 here? Not so sure!
Thrtypointstothree: Look past this one.
Thunder Strike: Very impressive all three starts this prep and looks crazy overs today.
Wahaab: Very strong win when green first up. Could sneak in today. Big chance.
War Command: Looks decent first up but doesn’t stand out for mine.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Thunder Strike looks to be a great price today while Wahaab also sticks out. This is a very tough race.
Ascot Race 5
Blue Bajan: Got in the preperation run first up and should be able to run well considering the distance.
Well Sharp: Good win first up this prep on Heavy. Won’t get that ground today but last prep form on Good and Soft is great. Looks a very big chance today at the odds.
Softsong: Hasn’t had much luck since 2011 and don’t see that changing today. Can place.
Investissement: Not going well enough to suggest can win today. Need a miracle.
Suraj: Going well enough to suggest could threaten but others rate higher.
Midnight Oil: Going well enough but suggest won’t measure up here today. Price looks wrong to me.
Tiger Cliff: Big question today is if the horse stays the 4000m. Suggest on previous runs no issue. Come back very well after gelding and looks a top hope.
Junior: Not in this today off last five runs.
Justification: Gone well recently but I thought the run in the Chester Cup was average at best. Many excuses but geez.
Big Easy: Intersting runner here. Goes very well on the flat and has been Hurdling with a good win last start. Could go close.
Mubaraza: Ran well the last three starts but has to find much more once again. Will enjoy the distance.
Apache: Needs to improve significantly to win here today.
Roman Flight: Looks over the odds today but does need to improve again to win. Probably better over 2400m.
Mawaqeet: Not enough quality to win here.
Homeric: Looks good on form but not at the same level as these runners.
Marchese Marconi: Major issue first time over 2mile. Has ability and if measures up goes close.
La Estrella: Not in this race.
Mysterious Man: Looks to have enough improvement to go well today. Could place at good odds.
Lieutenant Miller: Goes well and handles the distance. Good win last start. Only issue is the quality of this.
Tantalising: Not good enough for this on recent form.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Geez this is a tough race. Tiger Cliff on top but not confident here at all. Thought Well Sharp could go close also.
Ascot Race 6
Andhesontherun: Only won a maiden and couldn’t get within 3L last start. No thanks.
Anticipated: Won well both starts this prep and looks progressive. Low odds for a reason.
Beau Nash: Big odds for a reason. Couldn’t win two maidens and finally got an easy one.
Ben Hall: Only won a 5 runner maiden last start. Not good enough.
Der Blaue Reiter: Hard to see the progression on first up win.
Extortionist: Good win in maiden but poor last start. Could surprise for a price.
Fiftyshadesofgrey: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Finflash: Couldn’t win maiden.
Fountain Of Youth: Couldn’t win first up and got an easy win last start. Looks good on ability but wrong price today.
Haikbidiac: Could go close today. Looks overs on prices but needs to improve.
Jazz: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Justice Day: Looks good enough to place today but others look more progressive.
Mr Dandy Man: Not good enough on recent form. Big odds for a reason.
My Catch: Looks under the odds considering couldn’t win first up. Needs to find big improvement.
Ogermeister: Very strong win last start in very easy company. Very strong breeding.
Peterkin: Not good enough today on recent form.
Sacha Park: Ran well enough last start but needs to improve again today to have a shot.
Sleeper King: Progressive type worse off at the eights today. Looked good last start.
Steventon Star: A strong chance today if you forgive last start. Good win two back.
Supplicant: Ran well enough last start but looks up against it here.
Tableforten: I actually though this horse was over the odds today and had a decent chance to place.
Treadstone: Not in this considering last start.
Wilshire Boulevard: Well backed up until now and looks to be a good chance today. Expect a better run, very progressive.
Zalzilah: Can’t win on recent form.
Intense Feeling: Only won a seller. No chance.
Kodafine: Only won a maiden and not good enough on form.
Sefaat: Couldn’t win a maiden and not good enough
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Another tough race. Ogermeister, Wilshire Boulvevard and Tableforten are the ones who appeal here in that order.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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