Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 3. Yesterday while not going exactly to plan was overall a great day. There was some thrilling races and we got back into the profit with our Best Bet Al Kazeem storming home to claim the lead late and take it home at huge odds on the Exchanges. We will be on track again today and look forward to the Gold Cup! As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Best
Ascot Race 5 Remote
Next Best
Ascot Race 3 Estimate
Best Value
Ascot Race 6 Royal Skies
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 1
Ambiance: Stepped out well last start for a win at Ripon but this is another step that looks a little beyond the horse.
Coach House: Stayed on very well at Curragh last start to win a Listed race after winning the maiden the previous start. Every reason to be favourite.
Coulsty: Comes in well after a 5 length maiden win. Pull out your 5 length stick. Many love to bet on anything that won by over 5 lengths in the previous start and this is generally a profitable play. Looks to be in this big time.
Eccleston: Got into a bit of trouble first up but still managed the win. This looks a bigger step up today but if the markets like the horse, could be value.
Emirates Flyer: Won a fairly average maiden at Bath first up and hard to see the progression.
Extreme Supreme: First up runner. How will it go? Odds suggest last!
Green Door: Wasn’t the best run first up but won in good style last start at Newmarket. Don’t dismiss.
Ifwecan: Ran well enough last start from an average draw to suggest can run a good race.
Legend Rising: Won last two but they were no where near this level. Need to find 3-4 lengths more today.
No Nay Never: Won well in maiden in April and sounds like the trainer has set the horse for this meeting. Looks a massive chance.
Oriental Relation: Can’t see the win here. Couldn’t win a maiden.
Royal Mezyan: Has progression but this looks a bit beyond.
Saayerr: Won well first up but very messy win last start. Could win this but I’m happy to bet around.
Wind Fire: Very unlucky and eye catcher first up and then won well last start with 3 behind it going on to win already. Looks value.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: No Nay Never is the interesting runner of the race and sticks out on top from Wind Fire who looks massive value. Might be worth savering Coach House here who looks main threat.
Ascot Race 2
Alive Alive Oh: Been going great guns this prep. Won a maiden with ease and then backed that up with a great win over 2000m on similar ground to what we will get today in a listed race. This is the tesing material.
Cocktail Queen: Ran 2nd in a Group 3 last prep but shown little this prep and doesn’t suggest the step up is what is needed.
Elik: Looks under the odds today considering only won a maiden last time out. Has to find lengths here.
Fersah: Another step up required to place today.
Gertrude Versed: Found out last start and on that form should find this hard.
Hollowina: Maidedn winner only. Not shown anything recently.
Indigo Lady: Placed at Group 3 level last prep but was average at best first up. Could improve and place today.
Just Pretending: Could suggest better suited to 1600m but looks to get the distance today. Good runs this prep and suggest is a major player.
Riposte: Only short due to being distantly related to Frankel. Only won a maiden. Did show a bit of promise but get feeling wants further.
The Lark: Ran very well in the Oaks to finish 3rd. Form suggests the back in distance today will suit and so will the conditions. Has a chance today.
Waila: Large amount of improvement needed to even place today.
Winsili: Strong stakes class win last start stepping up to the distance and looks the one to beat today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Winsili looks the one to beat and will have everything going for her including the ground. Just Pretending looks the major threat.
Ascot Race 3
Aaim To Prosper: Doesn’t seem to be up to this flat race on recent hurdles form.
Altano: Won very well in a Group 3 last start at Hoppegarten over 3200m. This is a step up staying wise but everything in breeding suggests he can. Big chance.
Colour Vision: Won this race last year but ended the year poorly and then first up was average at best. Need to have big improvement today.
Earl Of Tinsdal: Won a Group 1 over 2400m last prep and then third to Altano first up in Group 3l ast start. Stamina looks the main issue today if you look at the form of the 3200m compared to 2400m.
High Jinx: Returned well enough last stat at Sandown and just couldn’t get a win the previous prep running 2nd in previous 4 runs. Handles any type of ground. Looks a big chance.
Number Theory: When you consider the price of this runner compared to High Jinx, looks massive value considering beat home. May have turned a corner.
Rite Of Passage: Hurdle/Flat winner who won this in 2010. Hasn’t run since winning a Group 3 over 3200m in October. Seems a long time off without a lead in run to me.
Saddler’s Rock: A little disappointing the two runs this prep at Meydan when 7th and 5th. Hasn’t placed in last 5 runs. Needs to have turned a massive corner to win today.
Simenon: Should run well today off first up run this prep 4th when a little unlucky. Appeals strongly at the weights today but has to find a bit more.
Times Up: Finished last prep winning two strong races but return this prep was very poor. Needs to find much more today.
Vadamar: Hard to see the win on previous form.
Biographer: This looks to be a throw at the stumps. Last win was a Listed race over 2800m and didn’t show me enough first up to suggest can stay this distance in this race.
El Salvador: Won 3 in a row early this year but has only managed 3rd the last two starts. Up in distance won’t help.
Last Train: Good form from France last prep and this prep also but looks a little up against it in this class for mine at the distance.
Model Pupil: Risk if the horse will stay and measure up here. Did win a Group 3 first up this prep but won’t get a Heavy track today.
Repeater: Not been seen since failing at Yarmouth. Can’t win on previous preps form.
Top Trip: One who looks suited by the distance today and was very solid in the Yorkshire Cup. Don’t dismiss.
Estimate: Her best has come over the longer distances with her two recent wins over 3200m. Looks to be open to loads of inprovement and gets the nod here today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Estimate looks juicy odds today to land the Gold Cup while High Jinx has every chance on recent form.
Ascot Race 4
Law Enforcement: Ran very well last prep including a Group 1 win.. but last two starts have been average at best. Still does look over the odds if you take on trust.
Ayaar: Won a Group 3 last year but returned with no form this time around.
Ebn Arab: Not good enough to win this.
Cape Peron: Looks horribly unders today. Won a 16 runner MAIDEN and then a 7 horse handicap… against Group winners. Horrible odds.
Newstead Abbey: Running well enough to suggest could sneak a place but in all reality, hasn’t been tested in this grade.
Haafaguinea: Hard to see the progression even though won the Esher Cup last start.
Roca Tumu: Only won a Handicap. A lot to prove to even be in this race really.
Maputo: Won two handicaps in a row but back in class and in a 30 runner field instead of 6. Not for me.
Jalaa: Not good enough on recent form.
Won Diamond: Needs to find a fair few lengths to be in this.
Queensbury Rules: Very disappointing last start and hard to see measuring up here.
String Theory: Hard to see the progression on recent form to get this home.
Wentworth: Looks awefully short today considering has only won a maiden and a minor event at Newbury and only ran 3rd last start over 1200m.. this is a further distance. Looks a lay.
Fehaydi: Not good enough on recent form.
Red Avenger: Ran wlel enough last two starts to suggest could sneak a place.
Shebebi: Good win in May in the Silver Bowl at Haydock but certainly needs to improve to win this.
Sea Shanty: Keeps winning small events. Not good enough form lines for mine here today.
So Beloved: Ran well last start at Haydock after failing at Newbury. Hard to back today.
Secret Talent: Ran well enough last start to suggest can run well here and might get a place. Just can’t see the win.
Cape Rosso: Not good enough on recent form.
Tarikhi: Only won a maiden.
Market Town: Looks to have progression but has a fair way to go to win this today. Still, a chance.
Llaregyb: Won the last two races very well and comes in this one well again today. Could surprise many.
Machete Mark: Not good enough for this today.
Homage: Ran well last start at Sandown but up in weight today and up in class hard to see progression.
You Da One: Good 3rd last start and can’t see the horse progressing to win this. Place chance.
Prophets Pride: Hard for us to go past ‘The Profits’ and this is a horse whpo has won 4 in a row.. all on All Weather though. First time on Turf but is certainly weighted to win.
Kyllachy Rise: Only won a maiden.
Le Deluge: Not a winner here on recent form.
Granell: Hard to see a win here.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Interesting race. I think the two favourites are under the odds and like the look of two outsiders in Prophets Pride and Law Enforcement here.
Ascot Race 5
Chopin: Huge win two back in Group 3 at Krefeld and just ignore last start when the distance was probably a touch too far. Back in distance today and looks suited in every way. Big value in the price.
Centurius: Good run last start in listed event but others much better here it seems.
Elkaayed: Certainly deserves to be here after last start win but there are more than 2 runners to beat today. Price looks unders.
Hoarding: Finally got a good win on the board last start but the runners behind look sub-par. No thanks.
Ideal: Won 2 of last 3 runs in lesser company and is up in distance today which shouldn’t be an issue. May be a bit of value?
Indian Chief: Hood goes on this costly horse and showed enough promise to suggest has the ability to go close.
Kitten On The Run: Good form out of Italy but stepped up in trip last start and didn’t measure up. No thanks.
Remote: Dominant win in a maiden two back and then won a Listed race very well last start at Doncaster. Looks the real deal.
Secret Number: May be overs today if you forgive last start. Has ability.
Shikarpour: Doesn’t seem progressive enough for this and looks unders.
Van Der Neer: Ran well enough two back in the Guineas at Newmarket to suggest has ability to win today.
Windhoek: Last run at York is the teller of how good the horse is. Looks solid but probably not as good as the others here today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Remote looks a class above the others here on previous runs while Chopin’s form looks solid and should stack up here today.
Ascot Race 6
Cap O’rushes: Ran well enough last prep to suggest can run well but first up run was average.
Excellent Result: Only won a maiden but did seem to have progressed.
Soviet Rock: Up against it at the weights today off 3 good wins in a row but still looks to be in this big time.
Eshtiaal: Good win last start at Yarmouth in what proved to be an only fair race. Good place chance but struggles to beat the whole field here.
Royal Skies: Absolutely turned a corner the last two starts winning by a combined total of 15 lengths! This is a step up but looks to be going great guns and can measure up for sure. Big chance at odds.
Another Cocktail: Didn’t handle the heavy going last start and previous run was solid for 2nd. Need to find a bit more today though.
Shrewd: Hard to see the progression to this grade. Avoid.
Space Ship: Only won a maiden. Excuse kind of horse. Not flying.
Pether’s Moon: Ran well last start but this is a step up. Not sure has the progression this run.
Bold Sniper: Last two runs been solid but get the feeling is wanting further to compete in this type of grade.
Pasaka Boy: Good win last start at Epsom and even though poorly weighted today, can certainly get a place on that form.
Spillway: Should run well once again this trip but had to win last start. This is a step up.
Elidor: Hasn’t wona maiden but useful form lines. No thanks.
Carry On Sydney: Not going well enough to improve enough here.
Blue Wave: Hard to see the horse being good enough on recent form.
Greeleys Love: Last two runs have been very poor. Hard to back.. but if back to best can place.
Salutation: Hard to see the progression on recent runs to measure up here.
Number One London: A non-winner who just keeps placing and running well… keeps running well in handicaps. Don’t dismiss be there at end again.
Red Runaway: Two good stakes wins in small races and then found out last start. No thanks.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Royal Skies stands out here. Looks big odds off last two starts and will be hard to beat.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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