Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 4. Yesterday got us back on track at Royal Ascot with a B A N G! Both our Best Bets won at very strong odds while we hit the trifecta (including our top pick on top at nice odds) in the first of the day. Overall it was very successful especially if you followed our confidence factors with only one of the four over 70% being winning races (2nd at nice odds in the other). It was amazing to see the Queen’s horse take out the Gold Cup yesterday (also helped we had it as a Best Bet) and her reaction was priceless. Good on her and it’s great to see her involvement in the sport. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Ascot Race 5 Leading Light
Ascot Race 2 Mutashaded
Ascot Race 6 Bertiewhittle
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 1
Arabda: Hard to see the progression from Maiden to Group 3! No thanks.
Heart Focus: Ran well enough last start in a Listed event but step up to group 3 needing to find a few lengths looks a stretch.
Iseemist: Hard to see the progression to win this type of race.
Joyeuse: Half-sister to Frankel who is only a maiden winner. You have to believe the price is simply only so short due to being half-sister to Frankel. Obviously has the breeding to go close though.
Kidmenot: Took four runs to win a maiden. Hard to see placing.
Kiyoshi: 4th of 17 first up in a Newmarket maiden and then next start won well at Goodwood. Has ability.
Lady Lara: Very hard to see this filly measuring up on debut.
Lucky Kristale: Won two in a row and certainly isn’t out of this but does need to show a lot more than those two starts.
Midnite Angel: Looks to have progression but needs to show much more today.
Princess Noor: Only won an average maiden.
Race Hunter: Won very well first up last start and looks to have progression. Big chance.
Rasheeda: Hard to see the win on first up run form.
Red Lady: Very strong win last start in a maiden and should run well today.
Sacred Aspect: Beat home Heart Focus last start and Heart is 1/3 the odds today. Looks overs on that alone and showed enough.
Sandiva: Won very well last start at Naas and shouldn’t be underestimated.
Sleepy Sioux: Couldn’‘t win on debut at Newmarket. Hard to see placing.
Suite: Not up to this today.
Wedding Ring: Looks a strong future prospect and should be respected even if just won a Newmarket maiden.
Wonderfully: Has scope but not a fan of her in this race today.
Strategy: Race Hunter looks a solid prospect here today while Sacred Aspect is huge overs to win this.
Ascot Race 2
Battle Of Marengo: Won 4 in a row until finding a few too good in the Derby but was still a very strong run. This looks much easier and is the top hope today.
Contributer: First up won a much easier 5 horse race before not getting the win the last two starts including in a two horse race. Hard to have today.
Fantastic Moon: Very poor firs tup after a very strong season last prep. Looks too far for the runner I would suggest.
Greatwood: Ran very well first up on return behind Windhoek who ran ok yesterday. Failed next start at York though.
Havana Beat: Not up to this on recent form. Only won a maiden and hasn’t really gone close since.
Hillstar: Won a maiden last prep and straight up in distance this prep when running two seconds in listed races. Has to improve today but has ability.
Mutashaded: Returned very well last start at Sandown winning a listed race over 2018m. Comes into this race unexposed and looking to make his mark. Big chance.
Tha’ir: Returned fairly last start when placed in Listed company but certainly has to step up once again today.
Strategy: Mutashaded looks the runner who has the most to gain from today and is big value while Battle of Marengo is the one to beat and has to be savered.
Ascot Race 3
Agent Allison: Hard to see Agent Allison going close to a win on previous form.
Big Break: Strong 4th in the Irish 1000 Guineas last start and looks solid. Did win a Group 3 last prep at 2.
Just The Judge: Draw looks to be the only issue with this strong runner. Could have a flawless record but lost by 1/2 a length in the 1000 Guineas. Will be there at the end. Big chance and price is right.
Kenhope: Won a Group 3 and then placed in a Group 2 last time out. Needs to improve again but can place today.
Lovely Pass: Looks to be massive value today when you consider the 1000 Guineas win in Meydan and won well at C&D at 2 years old.
Masarah: Hard to see her going close here.
Maureen: Can’t see the win on last two runs. Others better.
Mizzava: Needs to find a few extra lengths to even place today. Has some ability.
Ollie Olga: Very poor first up but if somehow finds last prep form can go close.
Pavlosk: Won a nice Listed race last start but is very questionable if will measure up here. Happy to bet around at the price.
Puur Along: Showed some fairly strong form winning a Group 3 three runs back. A win really wouldn’t shock.
Rehn’s Nest: Very strong run in the Irish Guineas last start considering poor previous run. Can place and could win.
Roz: Shown nothing at 3 years old. Can’t have here.
Siyenica: Went from a minor event to Group 1 and was put up favourite and failed. Big money for it but geez that is short for a horse with no real form.
Sky Lantern: Won very well in the Guineas beating home The Judge. Has the ability to win today, no doubt.
Snow Queen: Not good enough on recent form.
Viztoria: Won a Group 3 first up and looks progressive enough.
Strategy: Just the Judge looks the runner to beat while Lovely Pass is big overs to considering the Meydan form. Very hard race all things considered with 8 chances.
Ascot Race 4
Inis Meain: In a new stable and seems to be going well on flat. May find a few too good here though.
Rewarded: Career best last start to win listed event at Goodwood but still has to find more today off the weight.
Ocean War: Hard to see going straight back into this class and winning after 2 years off.
Forgotten Voice: Been jumping since 2010 and was at a very strong level. Hard to see back to this distance specifically to measure up.. but stranger things have happened.
Mobaco: Poor first up run. Hard to see a win after that!
Albasharah: Won by a wide margin first up at Doncaster last start and looks progressive enough to compete here.
Dick Douthywylie: Hard to see the progression here off last two starts.
Genzy: Needs to find about 4-5 lengths today. Hard to see.
Fattsota: Good 2nd at Meydan three runs back but only been fair since.
Ottoman Empire: Won on All Weather but that normally doesn’t translate well. Need to find much more today it seems.
Labarinto: Won a handicap two back. Average last start at Newmarket but could place today.
Shikhzayedroad: Won by close to 4 lengths last start and looks very promising. Up in weights is only issue.
Two For Two: Hard to see a win off the last few runs.
Chapter Seven: Outclassed last start in a Group 1 and looks better suited today. Can run well.
King’s Warrior: Not up to this on recent form.
Bana Wu: Not up to this on recent form.
Strategy: Shikhzayedroad is the top pick here from Albasharah.
Ascot Race 5
Leading Light: Favourite for a reason. Won three in a row including a Group 3 last start… big issue is if the horse will stay? Looks no issue for mine.
Another Cocktail: Looks outclassed today for sure.
Baihas: Hard to see going close on recent form.
Boite: Only won a maiden. No thanks.
Chocala: Won a handicap last start but this is a huge step up.
Da Do Rum Run: Should stay but has to find a LOT more today. Not sure it has that.
Dashing Star: Won a handicap over 2500m well and will stay. Has a chance.
Disclaimer: Hard to base your bet off last start when only beat 1 other home and then previous run only beat 4 others home on All Weather. Looks unders for mine.
Federal Blue: Only won an average maiden.
Feel Like Dancing: Don’t we all? Can’t see this horse dancing to victory the form doesn’t stack up.
Hasheem: Only won a maiden.
Mister Impatience: Good 2nd in Chester Vase but only beat home 2 others really. Hard to see winning here.
Naru: Not good enough for this.
Nearly Caught: Won a maiden well enough but no way you can back on that form alone.
Nichols Canyon: Very green last start at Newbury can do better but has to find much more.
Ralston Road: Good win last start but needs much more today. Not sure it’s there.
Ray Ward: Was strong last start but not good enough to win this that form.
Royal Skies: Was our best value pick yesterday and was scratched to compete here. Looks very well in at the weights/distance and has every chance again. Value again.
Strategy: Leading Light is the top pick here. Very hard to beat while Royal Skies is a must back on the E/W.
Ascot Race 6
Dubawi Sound: Ran some solid races last three runs in Meydan but just couldn’t get the cash. Could surprise.
Santefisio: Hard to see a win on recent two runs. No thanks.
Highland Colori: Good win last start at Newmarket but this is a whole new kettle of fish today.
Bertiewhittle: Very strong 2nd in Victoria Cup at Course and Distance and could go on better today. Big chance.
Emilio Largo: Doesn’t look progressive enough on first up run. Should have found much more to win this.
Es Que Love: Ran poorly in Royal Hunt Cup which suggests can’t win this.
Anderiego: Can run well but can’t win on recent form.
Switcher: Not good enough.
Shamaal Nibras: Ran well enough first up this prep to suggest has something to give today.
Jamesie: Not good enough on 2013 form. Need to improve significantly overnight.
Redvers: Won an average 12 runner race last start. Looks unders.
Baccarat: Dead heat first up over 1200m race was disappointing. Hard to back on that run.
Mont Ras: Won 2 handicaps this prep and looking to improve on that record. Big ability.
Loving Spirit: Not a winner. Just finds ways to lose. Not good enough in Vic Cup.
Smarty Socks: Has won at C&D previously but needs to improve big time.
Mezzotint: Can’t dismiss this runner but has to pass a few who beat it last start.
Enrol: Won 3 in a row before just not getting there hitting the line hard at Newmarket last time. Can change the luck today.
Lightning Cloud: Not good enough for this on 2013 form.
Thunderball: Doesn’t appeal.
Joe Packet: Not going well enough.
Maverik: Front Runner who needs a lot of luck. Doesn’t seem to be going as well as last prep.
Campanology: Needs to run career best to compete here. Doesn’t appeal.
Nassau Storm: Too many excuses this horse. Can’t back on last two runs.
Yair Hill: Outclassed last start and hard to see improvement for this.
Powerful Presence: Won two in a row this prep but up in weight is massive issue today.
Jack’s Revenge: First up run this prep was solid enough. Win wouldn’t shock.
Dream Tune: Ran 5th in 25+ horse races last two starts. Can place today but hard to see a win.
Democretes: Two strong runs recently put him right in this. Needs to still improve though and become a winner.
Strategy: Wide-open race and Bertiewhittle appeals on top from Mont Ras
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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