The stage is set for The International 2016 and the largest prize pool in E-Sports history. Last year, teams shared in $18,429,613 in prize money and that record has already been beaten with an ever growing pool that is expected to reach $20,000,000 this year – with around $9,000,000 for first place.
Dota2 is a very simple game. Two teams of five compete against each other to destroy the opponents base. There is a drafting stage where teams can pick from a pool of more than 100 heroes to create their team, with the opponents having the opportunity to ban heroes through the picking process. It’s import to realise how critical this stage is because you can go into a game already knowing the result when a team is heavily out drafted. Tactics starts from the picking stage.
Once teams have been picked, players fight each other on a set map (which doesn’t change), taking down the opponents nine towers (you only need to destroy three in one lane to then take the opponents base) to finally destroy the opponents base. Creeps assist in the pushing of these lanes and for every creep a player kills from the opponents team, they gain experience to level up and also gold to spend on advancing items. Furthermore, killing an opponent will result in experience and gold gain, while the opponent will lose money.
Past winners
2015 winner EG came in as 3rd favourites to the hottest favourite we have seen in a long time in Team Secret. Secret had won the two lead in tournaments and The Summit 3 that year while EG’s two victory’s were much earlier in the year when they won the highest prize tournament of the year outside of The International. EG made three finals after that including a defeat to Secret at ESL One. EG were clearly a top team leading in with 2 wins and 3 finals loses and the form did stack up. Most importantly, they showed form in June heading into the July event.
2014 winners Newbee were outsiders for the event coming in and were fairly new on the scene coming up through what was the leading division in the Chinese scene. They did have a tournament win on the board from May that year over one of the tournament favourites in LGD.
Key factors
The rules and skills of each character changes every few months, so recent success is one of the strongest determining factors when looking to bet on a team in Dota2. When looking at this form, I want to be selecting teams that have proven themselves from the Shanghai Major onwards which means I’ll be discounting all form before March.
Teams
OG – $3.75
Region: Europe (Denmark, Jordan, Canada, Israel, Sweden)
Last Premier Event Win: 19 June 2016
Winners of The Manila Major taking home over $1,000,000, OG then went on to win ESL One Frankfurt 2016. Their lead up tournament saw some very solid play but they did fall to Wings Gaming in the final at The Summit 5. It must be stressed that The Summit 5 is a much more relaxed tournament. OG won The Frankfurt Major 2015 last year as well and have the highest ranked player in the world currently on the team. This is a team with the runs on the board and most importantly, a team that delivers under pressure at the big moments.
Team Liquid – $6.00
Region: Europe (Finland, Germany, Bulgaria)
Last Premier Event Win: May 15 2016
Team Liquid are probably the most consistent team of 2016. They made the final at both majors, but failed to get a win with loses to Team Secret at Shanghai and OG in Manila. They did get a premier tournament win this year at Epicenter beating Newbee 3:2 in the final. They played at The Summit 5 as a lead in and played well for 3rd overall. Just like OG, they have a team that is flexible and can switch up playstyles. I’m just not sure they are able to deliver the goods on the biggest stage there is after 1:3 defeats in both major finals this year.
NewBee – $6.00
Region: Asia (China, Malaysia, Australia)
Last Premier Event Win: 10 July 2016
This is a team that went from winning The International 2014 in sensational style to the unknown in 2015, failing to win a tournament or even make a final. 2016 has been a much different year for Newbee and they have really been building up to this tournament. Their first major leap back to form was a 2nd to Team Liquid at Epicenter. Newbee then also lost at The Manila Major in the grand final play-off to Team Liquid again, finishing 3rd and taking home $315,000. Newbee come into this tournament with a 3:2 win over Wings Gaming in the Nanyang Dota 2 Championships Season 2, taking home first prize.
Wings Gaming – $6.00
Region: Asia (China)
Last Premier Event Win: July 17 2016
A fairly new team, Wings Gaming burst onto the scene with a 4th placing at the World Cyber Arena 2015 in December. Since then they have won ESL One Manilla and The Summit 5 with a second placing at the Nanyang Dota 2 Championships Season 2. They were expected to make a splash at The Manilla Major 2016 but failed to advance past the loser bracket. That was their first big lan event and they will take a lot from it. They will be better for the experience and put in a very solid showing beating a selection of the worlds best teams at The Summit 5. Wings play with absolute aggression which is their biggest strength and weakness.
Team Secret – $15
Region: Europe (Estonia, Sweden, Canada, USA)
Last Premier Event Win: 6 March 2016
Team Secret came into The International 2015 at the odds on favourite after winning four premier events in a row heading into the tournament. Unfortunately, the star studded line-up failed to deliver and were knocked out in 7th. Since then, the team has seen a number of key personal changes and the team that comes in today looks much different to that of a year ago. Since then, Team Secret has been very off and on, with a 2nd at The Frankfurt Major 2015 and winning The Shanghai Major 2016, they have the ability to win on the biggest stage, but they failed hard at the Manila Major 2016 with a 13-16th placed finish. Making more changes to the team, they had to go through the open qualifiers and then won their qualifier spot directly into the tournament. A second placing to Na’vi in the StarLadder i-League StarSeries Season 2 suggests they are playing well enough to be a team with a chance… but for mine.. it’s all a little too fast for this team that failed so hard just a month and a half ago in Manila.
Evil Geniuses (EG) – $17
Region: America (USA, Sweden, Pakistan)
Last Premier Event Win: 13 December 2015
Winning The International 2015 and taking home $6,634,661 in prize money last year, EG made some sudden roster changes that simply didn’t work. They were a respectable 3rd at The Frankfurt Mjaor 2015 and 3rd at The Shanghai Major 2016, but a poor result at The Manilla Major 2016 with a 13-16th place finish saw them make more roster changes and forced to qualify for the event, which they did with ease. They have the players and they have the previous results, but unlike last year when I did have a bet on them, I couldn’t touch them this year.
Natus Vincere (Na’vi) – $17
Region: Europe (Russia/Ukraine)
Last Premier Event Win: July 24 2016
Winners of The International 2011, they placed seconds in 2012 and 2013 before. In 2014 they had 4 1st placings but failed to beyond top 8 in the 2014 International. 2015 saw a major breakup of the team and no wins during that period, but with a new line-up, the 2016 team has looked the goods with a 2nd place at ESL One Frankfurt 2016, defeated by The International 2016 favourites OG. Navi come into this with a win in the past 30 days beating Team Secret at StarLadder i-League StarSeries Season 2. Na’vi have an all-round fighting style that is build on winning lanes and solid drafting.
MVP Phoenix – $23
Region: Southeast Asia (South Korea)
Last Premier Event Win: July 24 2016
Predicted to be a team to watch in 2014, MVP Phoenix finished a respectable Top 8 at The International 2015. Since then, MVP Phoenix has won four premier events including the Pro Gamer League 2016 – Summer just a week and a bit ago. MVP Phoenix finished 4th at The Shanghai Major 2016 and 5th at The Manila Major 2016. On their day, they can beat anyone and they have shown this in the past. This is a dangerous team with a setup that allows them to mix up position 1/2 roles depending on the strategy required, a flexibility not many teams share or can account for.
Vici Gaming Reborn (VG) – $29
Region: Asia (China, Macau)
Last Premier Event Win: 17 April 2016
Just the one premier tournament win this year and failing to make the finals in any other, Vici Gaming Reborn are the 2nd tier team of the VG teams, with the main team failing to qualify. VG Reborn finished a respectable 7th at The Manila Major 2016.. but their 5th at the Nanyang Dota 2 Championships Season 2 is certainly concerning form heading into this. Hard to see a youth side taking the big prize here.
LGD Gaming – $29
Region: Asia (China)
Last Premier Event Win: 23 May 2015
LGD Gaming made a very deep run in this tournament last year. Topping their group, they made it to the Grand Final play-off where they were defeated and took home $2.2million in prize money. Since their win at i-league Season 3 in May of 2015, the team has failed to make a final. They finished 9th at Shanghai and 4th at Manila. This is a team that can make a deep run once again, but i’m not convinced they have the skills or drafting to make a run where they will take down more than 2 of the world’s best teams in best of 3/5 games.
Alliance – $34
Region: Europe (Sweden)
Last Premier Event Win: 17 January 2016
Won the tournament back in 2013. 2014 saw the team progress backwards but the end of 2015 saw the first premier win in a long time for the original line-up. 7th at Shanghai and 9th at Manila, the game back in December and January suited them, but they haven’t been able to adapt to the newer changes well enough to be a contender here.
EHOME – $34
Region: Asia (China, Singapore)
Last Premier Event Win: 1 January 2016
Failed to qualify for this event outright so has to get in via the wild card play-off where they are $1.20 favourites to go through. 2 of the 4 teams will get into the tournament. 9th at the Shanghai Major and didn’t make the Manila Major, this is a team that has been well out of form and hasn’t made a final since January. Placed 4th at The Frankfurt Major 2015 and 5th at The International 2015. I couldn’t suggest the form turn around required.
Fnatic – $41
Region: Asia (Malaysia, Philippines)
Last Premier Event Win: N/A
Failed to win a premier tournament in the past, Fnatic has been one of the most consistent of the SE Asia teams. Having been to the last three Internationals, they have failed to make deep runs. Their 2016 form though suggests they are a team to consider having made it to 5th at both The Shanghai and The Manila Major. Their 3rd at ESL One Manila was good also.. but they do seem to be the 2nd string SE Asian team behind MVP Phoenix.
Digital Chaos – $151
Region: America (USA, Ukraine, Romania, Denmark, Macedonia)
Last Premier Event Win: N/A
A fairly new team on the scene, the team has combined a number of quality players in a team with strong leadership. They played well at the Manila Major for 9th and are expected to improve for the experience. I was expecting to see better results from them though at the three lead in events but they failed to get past 5th place in all 3. Can cause some upsets throughout this event, but won’t be winning it all.
complexity – $301
Region: America (USA, Sweden)
Last Premier Event Win: N/A
The American bridesmaid behind EG, they are consistently they have been the 2nd best team in the USA region for years until Digital Chaos came along. 9th last year at The International 2015, they backed that up with a very good 5th at The Shanghai Major. The new patch has seen them fail to adjust well enough and they were only able to manage a 9th at The Manila Major and have failed to get close to a placing since. Has to qualify through the wild card stages.
Escape Gaming – $301
Region: Europe (Sweden, Germany, Denmark, Jordan)
Last Premier Event Win:
Created in March, this is pretty much the newest team to make the tournament this year. Finishing third in the Europe Qualifiers, they gained a wild card spot. Their lead in event was a bit disappointing. It will be interesting to see how well this team has jelled since the qualifiers, but it’s hard to suggest they can go far and it will be a struggle to get past the wild card stage.
TnC – $401
Region: SE Asia (Philipines, America)
Last Premier Event Win: N/A
In the lead up to the Qualifiers they made an important change to their lineup, adding star player Demon to the roster. This was the defining change that lead them to qualify directly into the event. Their best results in the past have been in Minor events and they haven’t even competed in a major or premier event this year. I think they are a better team than their odds suggest, but it will be a struggle to get out of the group stages.
Execration – $2001
Region: SE Asia (Philippines)
Last Premier Event Win:
Outsiders of the wild card event.. Execration has been around since 2014 in the SE Asia scene with limited success. Highest prize money result to date has been $5850. Safe to say, they aren’t winning.
Betting
There can be no doubt that OG are the favourites, but I have them rated closer to a $4.50 chance than the $3.75 on offer and I really just have to take them on. The short-priced value comes into this with Wings who are rated a $5.00 chance. Natus Vincere (Na’vi) are the value of the tournament, rated single figure odds while being $17 at most bookies while MVP Phoenix are also well over the odds at $23, when rated closer to $12 shots.
Due to the timezone issues, I don’t like betting on individual matches, instead, I find the best way to bet these tournaments is to take a few teams at the right odds and watching the tournament play out. I do find that a few rough shots show better form than expected during the group stages and we can get some good value in the tournament winner market throughout the event.
This is how i’m going to be playing the tournament.
1.5 units Wings @ $5.50 (Bet 365)
1 unit Natus Vincere @ $17 (Bet 365 or William Hill/Centrebet)
0.5 units MVP Phoenix @ $26 (William Hill/Centrebet)
