Australia vs New Zealand – Bledisloe Cup 3 Preview

Best Bet 1: New Zealand -12.5 @ $1.91 – Sportsbet

NRC plays to be released on Friday.

AUSTRALIA ($4.50) VS NEW ZEALAND ($1.22)

Replacements: Stephen Moore, Tom Robinson, Allan Alaalatoa, Lukhan Tui, Ned Hanigan, Nick Phipps, Samu Kerevi, Henry Speight

New Zealand: Kane Hames, Dane Coles, Nepo Laulala, Sam Whitelock, Scott Barrett, Liam Squire, Sam Cane, Kieran Read (captain), Aaron Smith, Lima Sopoaga, Rieko Ioane, Sonny Bill Williams, Ryan Crotty, Waisake Naholo, Damien McKenzie

Replacements: Codie Taylor, Wyatt Crockett, Ofa Tunga’afasi, Patrick Tuipulotu, Matt Todd, TJ Perenara, Anton Lienert-Brown, David Havili

Prediction:

The Wallabies are definitely a better team now compared to when they started off this season with narrow wins over Fiji and Italy and succumbing to the Scots in Sydney. In saying that, two wins over Argentina, two draws against South Africa, a home belting from New Zealand and an improved performance in Dunedin appears to have re-inflated the local media’s confidence. A number of players have been tried and tested this season and Michael Cheika slowly seems to be heading towards knowing what his best match-day 23 actually is. The Wallabies know they have strike power in their back line with players like Kurtley Beale, Marika Koroibete, Reece Hodge and Israel Folau all in career-best form, but alongside basic handling errors, their pack hasn’t provided them the platform to get the most out of their abilities. Michael Cheika has made just the one change to the starting fifteen by bringing in veteran Rob Simmons for the injured Izack Rodda at lock. As a result, Ned Hanigan returns to the bench with Lukhan Tui likely to cover the second row.

The All Blacks all but breezed through this year’s Rugby Championship, their fifth tournament win in six years. After a ferocious drawn Lions series earlier on in the season, they took care of their southern-hemisphere business with relative ease. Their 25-24 win over the Springboks two weeks ago, albeit a narrow one, really showcased their composure and their depth. They entered the fixture without first-choice starters in Joe Moody, Owen Franks and Brodie Retallick in the pack and Beauden Barrett and Nehe-Milner Skudder didn’t see out the first half with injuries. Their stalwarts (Kieran Read, Ryan Crotty and co.) stood up and their youngsters Rieko Ioane and Damien McKenzie showed that it’ll be almost impossible not to pick them moving forward. The Springboks didn’t really let the All Blacks get into any rhythm and the visitors were forced to make a whopping 240 tackles, relying heavily on turnover ball to make their inroads (which they did). Given their current injury toll, it comes as no surprise that Steve Hansen has opted to make just four changes to his matchday 23, giving his more inexperienced more game time ahead of what will be a tough northern hemisphere tour. There are no changes to the pack, but in the backline Lima Sopoaga, an underrated flyhalf, comes in for the concussed Beauden Barrett and the damaging Waisake Naholo replaces Nehe Milner-Skudder who suffered another horrific shoulder injury against the Springboks. TJ Perenara and Anton Lienert-Brown find themselves back on the bench.

In a match largely designed to generate additional revenue for both the ARU and the NZRU, one would think that this is the best chance for the Wallabies to sneak a win against their biggest rivals this season. I somewhat agree, however, this will be the last game of All Blacks defensive coach Wayne Smith tenure, as he will be signing off his 20-year association with the national team (both as a player and a coach) on Saturday night. Defence has always been the cornerstone of New Zealand’s success and the players will be doing everything in their power to send him off as a deserved final game winner. In saying that, Suncorp Stadium has been one of the tougher venues for New Zealand, with the last three matches resulting in a Wallabies win (25-20 in 2011), a draw (18-18 in 2012) and New Zealand win (28-29 in 2014). Wet weather has engulfed Brisbane for the past week, so I won’t be expecting fireworks from the get-go, but the All Blacks are definitely the better wet-weather team.An interesting stat is that the All Blacks have beaten the Wallabies by 20 points and 34 points respectively the last two times they have crossed the ditch. The Springboks showed that to trouble the All Blacks you have to win the physical battle and make next to no mistakes and I just don’t think Australia has that in them with their current personnel just yet. I think the Wallabies will give themselves a chance in this match, but inevitably, I think the All Blacks will have too much class and momentum to secure a double-digit victory over the Wallabies in Brisbane.