After another round of The Rugby Championship, provincial rugby once again takes centre stage as the southern hemisphere superpowers have a well-deserved week off. With two rounds of the tournament to go, the All Black’s are in the driver’s seat to take out the trophy for the second year running, after beating the Springboks in a match embroiled with controversy. Without going into too much detail, rugby fans across the world were robbed of what could’ve been one of the biggest matches since the Rugby World Cup in 2011, when French referee Romain Poite became trigger happy with his yellow cards. I will elaborate further next weekend, but the stage is set for one hell of a clash at Ellis Park in just over two weeks time. The other match involved the Wallabies and Argentina in a game that failed to reach any real heights in torrential conditions in Perth. When the referee blew the final whistle, to the relief of the Wallabies and their fans, the home side was victorious by a solitary point in a low scoring contest. The Currie Cup, ITM Cup, Top 14 and the Aviva Premiership are in full flight this weekend, so in addition to the following Best Bets, I may announce further plays on Twitter. So, don’t forget to follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat and fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of provincial rugby.

Best Bet 1: Clermont +4.5 @ $1.84 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: Counties Manukau -3.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Canterbury to win @ $1.90 – Sportingbet

*Additional plays may be posted later

French Top 14  – Montpellier ($1.47) versus Clermont ($2.66)

The Top 14 is France’s premier domestic rugby competition that has over 121 years of history. Hence the name, the fourteen best rugby teams in France compete for this prestigious trophy every year. The Top 14 has arguably some of the best rugby players in the world given the club owner’s deep pockets large, which attract a number of international players, predominantly towards the end of their rugby careers. Approximately 40% (250 players) of the Top 14 are foreign rugby players and in doing so, they generally forfeit the ability to play for their national side. As you would expect, matches are slightly more intense and are played with a lot more width than what you see in the UK, although the weather often plays a key part in determining the entertainment value of a fixture.

This week, Montpellier welcomes the undefeated at home, but vulnerable on the road Clermont to the Stade Yves Du Manoir (Saturday morning Australian time) in what many expect to be a confrontational matchup.

Montpellier

With Rene Ranger a few weeks away, Montpellier are certainly shaping up to have one of their strongest campaigns in years. After a first-up draw to last year’s runners up Toulon and a bonus point loss to Biarritz, Montpellier turned the corner with three successive wins over Brive, Bordeaux Begles and a 25-0 thumping of Toulouse. Last week, they were brought back down to earth as Perpignan produced a breathtaking opening twenty minutes by running in three tries and as a result, they eventually went down 28-16. After resting a few players in last week’s defeat, coach and ex-Les Bleus great Fabian Galthie has recalled internationals Anthony Floch (France), Thibaut Privat (France) Anthony Tuitavake (New Zealand) and Timoci Nagusa (Fiji). However, this weekend they will be without the services of Scottish flanker and hard-man Johnnie Beattie and the tough as nails Jim Hamilton from Scotland. Fulgence Ouedraogo retains the captaincy, Francois Trinh-Duc continues at fly half and Yoan Audrin is always a threat and their current leading try-scorer having crossed the chalk on three occasions.

Clermont

Sitting at the top of the league after a calculated start, Clermont are only one of five teams that have managed to win away from home in this year’s competition. Their most impressive performances to date were when they shutout Bayonne 55-0 and comprehensive defeated an underperforming Toulouse. However, losses to Stade Francais and the newly promoted Oyonnax have kept their opponents within reach. Wesley Fofana is dangerous in the midfield and in my opinion is the best inside centres in the game at present. But, when you look at the names he has both inside and outside of him in Nalaga, Stanley, Sivivatu and Byrne, it isn’t really a surprise to see why. While many other teams have lost players and recruited heavily in the offseason, Clermont have been developing this squad for the past few seasons and as a result, their confidence and trust in each other is high.

News coming out of Clermont this week is that Chiefs number eight Fritz Lee has signed a three-month deal (after ITM Cup) adding to an already very rich Polynesian culture in the south of France. His combination with the competitions second top try scorer and open side flanker Gerhard Vosloo will be lethal, but first they will have to worry about a strong Montpellier outfit this weekend.

Prediction:

There is a logjam at the top of the competition ladder with no less than four points separating the top nine teams, so a victory for either side would consolidate their position at the top. With Montpellier missing two of their key forwards and the Clermont backline looking top notch, I expect Clermont to either get a rare road win or at worst, cover the handicap.

Predicted result: Clermont to win @ $2.66 – Betfair
Best Bet 1: Clermont +4.5 @ $1.84 – Sportsbet

ITM Cup – Counties Manakau ($1.60) versus Waikato (2.33) – Ranfurly Shield

The ITM Cup is New Zealand’s premier domestic rugby competition and in my opinion, the best advertisement for rugby. Although it has had several name changes over the years, the competition began in 1976 as the NPC. The competition is split into two divisions: The Premiership and The Championship. Similarly to Super Rugby, there are inter-divisional matchups and cross-divisional matchups, and given the wealth of talent that exists in New Zealand, the standard and quality of rugby is of the highest calibre. New Zealander’s have always had the ability to beat a defender one-on-one and for that reason, coupled with some weakened defences due to the quick turnarounds between matches, the total tries and total points are markets that I pay a lot of attention too. Canterbury are the reigning ITM Cup champions and this isn’t surprising given their depth and their larger contingent of All Blacks that generally return towards the latter stages of the tournament.

Counties Manakau

For the fourth week in succession, Counties Manakau will run out in front of their home crowd at Pukekohe, where they will look to defend the coveted Ranfurly Shield for the second time in their history. Two weeks ago, Counties snatched the Shield from Hawkes Bay in Nelson thanks to a late try from burly replacement forward, Sikeli Nabou. The 58-year wait was finally over, but as Hawkes Bay and Otago and two other teams have experienced first hand this year, holding onto the trophy is proving to be a difficult task this season. Last weekend, Counties welcomed Taranaki and easily defended the Shield as they thumped the visitors 44 – 7 and scored six tries in the process. Their backline is full of X factor and can cut any defense to pieces, but their forwards were exceptional against Taranaki and that really allowed their backs to play with some width and freedom. Coach Tana Umaga has announced a solid squad this week, so it will be great to see a packed ECO Light Stadium in Pukekohe.

Waikato

Waikato began the season as the Ranfurly Shield holders and after a round one victory over Northland, Otago left Hamilton in possession of the ‘Log o’ Wood’ after one of the classic RS matches. The Mooloos were thrashed the following week by Canterbury, fell short against Southland in Invercargill, but turned their fortunes around with a comprehensive victory over Auckland last weekend. It is fair to say that consistency has been one of the primary issues for the men from Waikato this year, but they have enough players with ITM Cup and Super Rugby experience to bring the Shield back to Hamilton. Coach Johnny Walters has made five changes to the side that beat Auckland last weekend, most notably bringing back big Ben Tameifuna to bolster the scrum and Sam Christie comes off the bench to don the flyhalf jersey. Brad Webber scored a brace of tries from halfback last weekend and with names like Willison (captain), Tokula and Mikkelson in the back line, it is imperative that Waikato’s understrength forward pack delivers up front and controls the breakdown or things could get ugly for them.

Prediction:

Counties Manakau are on a roll at the moment and they are not going to give up the trophy without a real fight, but besides a strong victory over Auckland last weekend, the Mooloos have failed to set the tournament alight like rugby fans know they can. In a rarity, the Mooloos get the chance to avenge their disheartening Ranfurly Shield loss to Otago earlier on this season. Unfortunately, the weather forecast suggests that the conditions won’t be ideal for running rugby and in the wet, the team that wins the forward battle generally prevails. For me, Counties have the edge in that department and their opportunistic backs will capitalise on any inaccuracy from the visitors.

Predicted result: Counties Manakau to win @ $1.60 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: Counties Manukau -3.5 @ $1.91 – Sportingbet

ITM Cup – Wellington ($1.90) versus Canterbury – ($1.90)

The table-topping Wellington Lions host Canterbury on Saturday evening in the biggest match of the ITM Cup to date. Both teams head into this matchup with undefeated records through five rounds, but Wellington have the advantage after accruing an additional bonus point. With conditions synonymous with Wellington (wind and rain) on the radar, it is going to be a tightly contested affair.

Wellington

Wellington have had a cracking start to the season racking up 224 points from the first six matches and they are odds on to go at least one better than last year and make the finals. What is probably more impressive is that the home side has the second best defensive record in the competition only conceding an average of 16 points per game. However, it is important to note that Wellington have had the easier run to date and are faced with tough matches against Waikato, Auckland and Hawke’s Bay in their final three rounds. Interestingly, Wellington hold the advantage in terms of overall matches played between these two proud teams and when you run your eyes across the team sheet, it doesn’t come as much of a surprise. Coach Chris Boyd has named a powerful lineup with Schwalger, Matu’u and the ever-improving Jeff Toomaga-Allen featuring in the front row. Their back row of Shields and Savea will be future All Blacks and already capped Victor Vito locks the back of the scrum. Lima Sopoaga will call the shots from first five and Shaun Treeby and Tim Bateman form a seasoned midfield partnership. Joe Hill and Ambrose Curtis should play for the Hurricanes next year and Charlie Ngatai continues to press his claims for higher honours with every match he plays.

Canterbury

Canterbury have had the luxury of not having to play matches with short turnarounds to date, so it would be fair to say that the squad is relatively fresh. Unlike their opponents this week, Canterbury have been put under pressure from likely Championship winners Tasman (in my opinion), and more recently against Otago last week. Canterbury are generally fast starters, but when they trail on the scoreboard, they still manage to play with confidence and more often than not dig themselves out of sticky situations. Defensively, Canterbury are the form team of the tournament and former All Black Scott Robertson and current coach has put in place a solid defensive system. Winger Patrick Osborne is a player that I love watching and he continues to be a rising star for his province as he has more line breaks and beaten more defenders than any other player in the competition. The Canterbury coach has continued to rotate his players naming a squad featuring five changes to the one that beat Otago. Corey Flynn and lively outside back Johnny McNicholl take their places in the starting fifteen after featuring off the bench last weekend and flanker Matt Todd returns from the All Blacks after getting a few minutes against the Springboks. Luke Whitelock replaces Jordan Taufua at the back of the scrum and Colin Slade interchanges with Tom Taylor who has been called up to the All Blacks for their upcoming test matches against the Pumas and the Springboks.

Prediction:

The match of the tournament so far sees two provinces rich in history fight it out for early bragging rights in this year’s competition. Both teams have an abundance of talent, a huge amount of depth and players that can mix it with the best in world rugby. In what shapes up to be a finals preview, the forecasted conditions will keep things close and both teams will look to dominate up front and win the territorial battle. For me, the Cantabrians have the class and the experience and I can see them just piping Wellington, but it will be a match that will be well worth a watch.

Predicted result: Canterbury to win @ $1.90 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 3: Canterbury to win @ $1.90 – Sportingbet