The Rugby Championship returns this weekend with the All Blacks hosting the Pumas in Hamilton and Australia welcoming the Springboks to their favourite venue of Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane. The French Top 14 is in full swing, the ITM cup continues to set the standard for entertaining rugby and domestic club rugby seasons come to a close in Australia. It was a mixed bag last weekend, but due to the short durations between matches, make sure you follow me on Twitter (@S15_TheProfits) for last minute tips, game coverage, expert insight or just for a chat. Fingers are crossed for another fascinating weekend of rugby as the giants of the southern hemisphere rugby battle it out for supremacy.
Best Bet 1: Counties Manukau +8 @ $1.90 – Sportingbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand Team Total Over 38.5 @ $1.86 – Bet365
Best Bet 3: Either team by 7 or Less @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 4: New Zealand -9.5 (HT – PYOL) / South Africa +12 @ $2.06 – Sportsbet
ITM Cup – Hawkes Bay ($1.40) versus Counties Manukau ($3.00) – Ranfurly Shield
The ITM Cup is New Zealand’s premier domestic rugby competition and in my opinion, the best advertisement for rugby. Although it has had several name changes over the years, the competition began in 1976 as the NPC. The competition is split into two divisions: The Premiership and The Championship. Similarly to Super Rugby, there are inter-divisional matchups and cross-divisional matchups, and given the wealth of talent that exists in New Zealand, the standard and quality of rugby is of the highest calibre. New Zealander’s have always had the ability to beat a defender one-on-one and for that reason, coupled with some weakened defences due to the quick turnarounds between matches, the total tries and total points are markets that I pay a lot of attention too. Canterbury are the reigning ITM Cup champions and this isn’t surprising given their depth and their larger contingent of All Blacks that generally return towards the latter stages of the tournament.
Hawkes Bay:
After a 44-year wait, the Ranfurly Shield returned to Hawkes Bay last weekend after a thrilling one-point victory over Otago. For those of you that don’t know, the Ranfurly Shield, also known locally as the ‘Log o’ Wood’ is one of New Zealand rugby’s most sought after trophy. The Ranfurly Shield is based on a challenge system and is essentially a subplot within the competition, so teams that won’t necessarily feature in the playoffs might get the opportunity to gain some silverware through the season. The holding union of the shield defends the Log o’ Wood at any of their home fixtures, so this week the Magpies welcome the Steelers, last season’s Championship (second division) winners. Hawkes Bay have had a strong start to the season, except for a second half capitulation against the Steamers, where the blue and yellows won the rights to be known as ‘the bay’ in this year’s competition. Hawke’s Bay rely heavily on their forwards like Mike Coman and Brendan O’Connor to lay the platform for their exciting backs to run riot. Young fly half Ihaia West has had a strong start to the season and he has the luxury of orchestrating one of the most dangerous outside back combinations in the league in Zac Guilford, Telusa Veainu and Sevens expert, Gillies Kaka.
Counties Manukau:
As a result of winning the Championship last year, Counties were promoted into the Premiership division and have found the going tough in the first few weeks of the tournament. Three losses to Wellington, Tasman and Auckland haven’t been ideal, but a victory in Napier could turn their season right around. Hooker Hika Elliott made the switch from the Magpies to Counties during the offseason, so it will be a strange occasion for him, but his team will need him to lift, as their forwards have been relatively ineffective in recent weeks. Counties have one of the most dangerous backlines in the competition, however, if the forwards don’t do the work upfront, it is very hard for backs to be effective when they are retreating. Besides Toni Pulu, the Counties backline are accomplished Super Rugby players, although there are injury clouds hanging over Baden Kerr and Frank Halai. If both of them take the field, I give the men from Pukekohe a real chance to win their first ever Shield.
Prediction:
The Ranfurly Shield is the biggest crowd puller in the ITM Cup and as a result, has potential value of about $1 million for the shield holders throughout the course of a season. Hawkes Bay have held the edge over Counties throughout the history of this competition, however, Shield games are generally tightly contested affairs, so it might come down to the battle of the boots: West versus Kerr. This will be a fascinating fixture to watch and the will players put everything on the line, but with the Shield changing hands twice already in this competition, I am going to go out on a limb and say it’ll happen again this week. However, due to the question marks hanging over some of their players, I would steer away from the match result and choose Counties with the handicap instead.
Predicted result: Counties to win @ $3.00 – Bet365
Best Bet 1: Counties Manukau +8 @ $1.90 – Sportingbet
The Rugby Championship – New Zealand ($1.01) versus Argentina ($19.00)
The third round of The Rugby Championship kicks off in Hamilton on Saturday evening as New Zealand hosts the travelling Argentinians. Both teams have had contrasting starts to the tournament, with the All Blacks comprehensively outclassing the Wallabies and the Argentinians feeling the wrath of the Springboks on both occasions. The All Blacks have never tasted defeat against the developing South American rugby nation and anything less than a comprehensive victory this weekend would be considered as a disappointment. In saying that, the corresponding match last year was played in treacherous Wellington conditions and before Julian Savea and Cory Jane grabbed late five pointers, the match was well in the balance. It will be cold in Hamilton, but rugby fans will be treated to much better conditions than what the Wellington faithful received last year.
New Zealand:
The All Blacks have hit the ground running in 2013 having won their first five fixtures. At home, they are almost impossible to break down and the Wallabies witnessed this first hand last week. The All Blacks have now won 62 of their last 65 home fixtures; a record that I believe will never be bettered by any other test nation. Their game-breakers continue to win matches and their new faces seem to make the transition onto the global stage with ease, with Steven Luatua being a case in point. The obvious performer so far in the competition has been Ben Smith having notched up five tries in the past two games and seven in his last four. In recent fixtures, he has been a catalyst in extending the All Blacks streak of scoring at least one try in every Tri Nations/Rugby Championship game to 45. This statistic reiterates the attacking and opportunistic prowess that the All Blacks have in spades. To further highlight their accuracy in attack, the All Blacks did not drop the ball against the Wallabies until the 51st minute of the match, even though a shower crossed the ground during the first half. When watching the All Blacks, their composure and patience is second to none and for that reason they never look like they are out of a match, even when they are down on the scoreboard. The belief that has been instilled in the team since the Rugby World Cup triumph in 2011 continues to build and with the amount of quality and leadership on the pitch, it is hard to see a team dominating the All Blacks physically, let alone mentally.
With the Bledisloe Cup wrapped up for another year, the All Blacks turn their attention to The Rugby Championship, one of many trophies that already sits in their cabinet at Eden Park. Recent newcomers Argentina won’t necessarily threaten the All Blacks home record, but they generally play with a lot of pride and passion and like the South Africans, rely heavily on their big, abrasive forwards. Coach Steve Hansen has named three changes to his starting 15, with Dan Carter returning, Charlie Faumuina taking Owen Franks’ in the front row and Francis Saili set to make his debut for the men in black. Although it has been long awaited, it hasn’t been until recently that I believed Saili could be a long-term All Black. Last week in the ITM cup fixture playing for North Harbour, he singlehandedly took apart a Counties team with some incisive runs and some thunderous defence. Much like Tom Taylor a few weeks ago, Saili’s baptism of fire will be that much easier with the likes of future hall of famers, Dan Carter and Conrad smith on his inside and outside respectively.
Argentina:
After an impressive first season campaign in The Rugby Championship, the Argentinians have taken a step backwards in 2013 and things will only get harder as they come up against the All Blacks and the Wallabies over the next fortnight. Still searching for that illusive first win having never beaten the AB’s and never having won a game in this tournament, their grace period is slowly coming to an end. After a humiliating 60-point defeat in Soweto in round one, the Pumas were much improved in chilly Mendoza, with their defence around the fringes and at lineout time substantially better. They stifled the Springboks, albeit using illegal tactics at times and looked a completely different team to the week prior. It is imperative that they get off to a good start and put the home side under pressure in Hamilton, otherwise things could get pretty ugly, very quickly.
Focussing on this week’s match, coach Santiago Phelan has been able to recall their inspirational skipper Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and fullback Juan Martin Hernandez, another player that is capable of creating some magic on the field. Lobbe replaces the suspended Leonardo Senatore who was handed a nine-week ban for biting South African lock Eben Etzebeth midway through the second half of the Mendoza test match. Given that Senatore was also yellow-carded in Johannesburg for a tip tackle, his discipline will surely be of concern to coach Phelan and technical advisor, Graham Henry. Any ill-discipline against the All Blacks in Hamilton will get punished, and once the Kiwis get a lead, they are exceptionally difficult to peg back, especially in front of their home crowd.
Prediction:
This match is simply a case of David versus Goliath. Although there is a slight chance of rain, no one gives Los Pumas a chance and no level of New Zealand complacency could see them drop points to the South Americans on Saturday. There are a number of Chiefs players who will be playing on their home track and the All Blacks will be looking to build on their momentum with the Springboks arriving next week. Although the tourists might put up a spirited performance in the first stanza of the match and the inclusion of Lobbe will provide the tourists with some much needed direction, I expect the All Blacks to romp home in a match reminiscent of the Soccer City clash in Johannesburg and it wouldn’t surprise me to see the four-try bonus point collected before or just after half time.
Predicted result: New Zealand to win @ $1.01 – Sportsbet
Best Bet 2: New Zealand Team Total Over 38.5 @ $1.86 – Bet365
The Rugby Championship – Australia ($1.68) versus South Africa ($2.68)
Suncorp Stadium and the Wallabies will play host to the undefeated Springboks on Saturday evening in an important clash where both teams need to win to keep the pressure on the All Blacks, who are well and truly favoured to win the tournament. Australia head into this matchup without a solitary point to their name after two bone-crunching encounters against the reigning Rugby Championship and World Champions, and with one win to their name in 2013, things are sitting pretty. The pressure is slowly mounting, but an entertaining and complete performance this week will certainly supress the emotional distress that Wallabies have experience this year. Conversely, the Springboks sit atop the competition ladder having had the luxury of playing Argentina both home and away in two very contrasting fixtures. The tourists are currently riding an eight match win streak, but it is well documented that Suncorp Stadium is one of their least favourite grounds in world rugby, so it will take a monumental effort to keep their streak alive.
Australia:
Australian coach Ewen McKenzie and his squad were always going to be up against it over the past two weeks despite the pre-tournament hype and newfound expectations on the team due to coaching and player changes. The All Blacks are the best team in the world by a country mile and this is reiterated by the IRB world rankings, so the thought of the Wallabies bursting out of the gates during the McKenzie reign were always premature. Although the Wallabies tightened up their defensive structures that completely failed them in week one, the All Blacks retained the Bledisloe Cup in the return match for the eleventh consecutive season, when the Wallabies went down 27 – 16. It was a match where Australia dominated the majority of the key statistics, but New Zealand simply made more of their opportunities. Israel Folau was one of the shining lights for the Wallabies as he scored his first try against their biggest rivals, thanks to an intercept try where he had to bypass a covering Israel Dagg en route to the try line. Will Genia had a match to forget and had three of his box kicks charged down, so he will need to be more careful given the tall timber that the Springboks possess.
The Springboks game plan is not one that offers many surprises week-in and week out. They play a forward oriented, confrontational game and rely on their brute size and strength to put Australia under pressure. If the Wallabies concede any penalties in their own half like they did against the All Blacks, it must be expected that Morne Steyn would slot them, so their discipline could very well play a large part in determining the outcome of this match. One area the Wallabies will have spent a lot of time on this week is defending a rolling maul. This has been one of the Springbok’s biggest weapons for a number of seasons and they will need to have analysed footage on how the Argentinians managed to disrupt the maul so successfully in Mendoza.
It is no surprise that Suncorp Stadium is the Wallabies favourite ground. With a large contingent of the squad Queensland based, the atmosphere will be electric and their record speaks for itself, remarkably never losing to the Springboks at their hallowed ground. The Wallabies even managed to steal a draw from the All Blacks last year with an injury-depleted squad. On Wednesday, coach Ewen McKenzie announced four changes to the team that faced the All Blacks two weeks ago, with the mercurial Quade Cooper taking over the playmaking role, Israel Folau shifting to fullback with Nick Cummins on the wing and Sekope Kepu bolstering the scrum in the tighthead jersey. It has been well publicized that Israel Folau wants more ball and with the Springboks likely to adopt a territory first mentality, coupled with Cooper’s astute long passing game, his requests look likely to be answered on Saturday. The frizzy Nick Cummins has been the Western Force’s best for the last two seasons and he will look to carry over his autumn international form into his first match of 2013. Unfortunately for the Wallabies, inspiring captain James Horwill has been ruled out late and his presence in the lineouts and around the field will be missed, but Kane Douglas gets a great opportunity to stake his claims. Jake Schatz has also been ruled out and Liam Gill, who in my opinion is probably better player, will take his place on the bench.
South Africa:
After a comprehensive routing of the Argentinians in Soweto three weeks ago, South Africa returned to Mendoza, the venue of last year’s draw, and were brought back down to earth when the home side scored a try inside the opening two minutes. Thanks to a flawless kicking display by Springbok fly half Morne Steyn, who had a match tally of 17 points, the Boks were forced to come from behind and eventually prevailed 22 – 17 in a tightly contested encounter. It was a match where very little went the Springboks way, when two tries were denied by the TMO and two counts of illegal play went unpunished due to a communications problem with the referee and his television match official. In all honesty, the Springboks have come a long way and mightn’t have won this match in recent years, but inconsistency continues to be a burden on the squad and anything but their best will see them fall short of their main southern hemisphere rivals over the next few weeks.
Coach Heyneke Meyer has made five changes to his starting 15 this week, most notably bringing in Bismarck du Plessis in place of vice-captain Adriaan Strauss and Zane ‘sideshow bob’ Kirchner in place of Willie le Roux who moves to the wing, relegating Bjorn Basson to the bench. I think the Springboks have missed a trick by naming Flip van der Merwe over Juandre Kruger, who statistically has been South Africa’s best lineout forward this year. The forward pack looks menacing and will look to grind down an already bruised and battered Wallaby outfit. Their backs are an area in which the Wallabies will target them, with Ruan Pienaar’s slow service and Zane Kirchner’s inability to offer anything outstanding on both attack and in defence, glaring weaknesses. Nevertheless, the Springboks know that if the match turns into a ‘kickathon’ they have one of the best in the business to lead them in Morne Steyn, but it will be interesting to see if the Springboks recent attacking mindset buries itself when the going gets tough at Suncorp. This season alone, the Springboks have scored 27 tries in five matches, which is substantially higher than their teams of yesteryear. However, their selections for this match are certainly more conservative, which must worry Springbok fans, but when you have Genia, Cooper, O’Connor, and Folau opposing you, can you risk turnovers in open space? Probably not.
Prediction:
South Africa have an enormous challenge ahead of them this weekend at Suncorp Stadium, where they have never beaten the Wallabies and lost seven of their last nine fixtures against the home side. Despite this, they are on an eight game winning streak with impressive victories over England, Samoa, and Argentina. To date, Australia has had a year to forget and is spiralling down the world rankings, but the inclusion of Quade Cooper and the shift of Israel Folau to fullback, certainly instils more confidence in terms of attacking potency. If the Wallabies can gain parity in the set pieces and not suffer from the South African’s blunt force trauma at the breakdowns, they could run in a number of points, but that is easier said than done. The Suncorp Stadium factor is well and truly against the Springboks and Saturday’s test will truly reveal how far the Springboks have come as a unit. Are they good enough to break their drought in Brisbane? At their best, yes, but I think the Wallabies will edge it to the delight of the home fans.
Predicted result: Australia to win a close one @ $1.68 – Betfair
Best Bet 3: Either team by 7 or Less @ $2.20 – Sportsbet
