2013 Australian Open Day 4

Wednesday was the day the tide started to turn our way, with some very solid results. Both Best Bets were winners. They weren’t the easiest of winners, but they pay just as well as a demolition job. Flipkens, put up as Best Value, was absolutely dominant winning 6-1 6-0 paying over $2.20. Wawrinka was looking brilliant up 2 sets to 0 when Kamke decided to retire.

An ankle injury to Ana Ivanovic cruelled the Next Best and Women’s multi, which were both looking brilliant until that second set. Tipsaravic was also looking great up 2 sets to love and a break, however he lost his composure and ended up going to 5 sets.

On to today. Tread a bit more carefully than yesterday.  A few tricky matches, and a very exciting round 3 coming up over the next two days.

For those on Duckworth Top Australian (tipped up at $23 pre-tournament, hoping for a split with Tomic Rd 3), if you think Tomic will lose to Federer, I would suggest a small play on Kavcic at around $1.60. If nothing else, bet to get your stake back. If Ducky wins, you are still looking great. If Ducky loses, you won’t have lost any $$.

Best Bet
Gilles Simon -1.5 sets at $1.72 at Sportsbet
Wozniacki/Vekic under 19.5 games at Sportsbet

Next Best
Falla/Gasquet over 31.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet
Gael Monfils over 19.5 games at $1.81 at Sportsbet
Vinci/Amanmuradova under 19.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet

Best Value
Tsonga 3-0/Del Potro 3-0/Kohlschreiber 3-0 at $2.52 at Betfair Multi

Betfair Multi – Men
Simon
Monfils
Raonic
Granollers
Tomic
Mayer/Berankis over 39.5 games

Pays $7.70 and is eligible for Betfair 50% bonus

Gilles Simon vs Jesse Levine

Playtime: 4th on Court 6

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Jesse Levine (Vs TommyRobredo) Gilles Simon (Vs FilippoVolandri)
1st Serves in 98/159 (62%) 54/93 (58%)
1st Serves pts won 71/98 (72%) 36/54 (67%
2nd Serve pts won 32/61 (52%) 26/39 (67%)
Break pts saved 10/12 (83%) 2/5 (40%)
Break points won 4/5 (80%) 6/12 (50%)

Summary: The odds here don’t seem to add up here in my opinion!

Jesse Levine didn’t beat a player in the top 50 in 2012. He hasn’t beaten anyone notable for quite some time. Tommy Robredo used to be notable, but his first round win over Tommy can hardly be considered a massive feat now.

Something that worries me regarding Levine is the number of break points he allowed on his serve, even with his first serve in percentage sitting above 60%. Considering Simon is a very solid return of serve, Levine could find himself in a lot of trouble consistently on serve.

Although not the best way to analyse players, both players have played a common opponent this year in Alejandro Falla. Simon defeated Falla in two tight sets, whereas Levine lost 1-6 6-7.

A major disadvantage for Levine here is the Melbournehardcourts aren’t actually that fast compared to the standard hardcourts found elsewhere in the world. He is going to struggle against Simon, who should be far more consistent and played some brilliant tennis after trailing a set and a break early vs Volandri.

The -1.5 sets allows a slight hiccup along the way for Simon. I spent a long time tonight tossing up whether to take the -1.5 sets of the -4.5 games available for Simon. In the end I have gone for the -1.5 sets.

NOTE: Simon has won his last 4 meetings against LeftHanders

Suggested Bet: Simon -1.5 sets at $1.72 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 70%
H2H: No previous meetings

Alejandro Falla vs Richard Gasquet

Playtime: 4th on Show Court 3

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Alejandro Falla (Vs Ouanna) Richard Gasquet(vs Montanes)
1st Serves in 81/114 (71%) 41/68 (60%)
1st Serves pts won 59/81 (73%) 36/41 (88%)
2nd Serve pts won 18/33 (55%) 17/27 (63%)
Break pts saved 12/12 (100%) 0/1 (0%)
Break points won 3/8 (38%) 6/10 (60%

Summary: I am in no way here disputing the fact thatGasquet should win this match. A lot will need to go wrong for that to happen. That being said, things might end up a little bit closer than people think.

Falla has the ability to step things up a level when he finds himself at Grand Slam level. A quick look at his recent Grand Slam Record shows us that before the Aus Open this year, 12 of Falla’s last 14 Grand Slam matches went over the total on offer here today, and this includes matches against top 20 players. He just seems to lift another gear.

In a perfect world, Falla will take a set of Gasquet to ensure this goes over. However, the advantage of the total on offer is it will only take a tiebreak and a couple of close sets to get this one over the line.

A pretty major key to the game of Falla is his serve. He probably won’t replicate that 71% of first serves in that he managed round 1, but if he can go somewhere in the mid 60% range, Gasquet will find it difficult to break him.

A last comment. Every game counts in betting. In fact, every half a game counts. That is why it is important to look around and get the best line possible. At the time of writing (1am), this is the market available at Pinnacle, one of the most respected betting sites out there:

As you can see there, the over 33.5 is starting to be favoured, sitting at $1.917 compared to the under 33.5 at $1.971. That suggests that people agree with us, and that the money is coming for the over 33.5 games.

That’s where our good friends at Sportsbet come in:

For the sake of 8 cents of winning per dollar staked, 2 whole games is a massive difference. Massive.

Suggested Bet: Over 31.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 65%
H2H: Gasquet leads 1-0

Yen-Hsun Lu vs Gael Monfils

Playtime: 4th on Hisense Arena

Review of Round 1 matches

Player (Opponent) Yen-Hsun Lu (vs Ramirez Hidalgo) Gael Monfils (vs AlexandrDolgopolov)
1st Serves in 53/87 (61%) 81/133 (61%)
1st Serves pts won 41/53 (77%) 67/81 (83%) 
2nd Serve pts won 24/34 (71%) 23/52 (44%)
Break pts saved 2/3 (67%) 3/7 (43%)
Break points won 7/11 (64%) 7/16 (44%)

Summary: It is safe to say that Gael Monfils is not onlyback, but he is back with a vengeance. The match played on Tuesday night suited his style in the end. He outplayed Dolgopolov at his own game, ultimately winning in 4 sets.

That doesn’t mean he didn’t give Dolgopolov any look-ins to take advantage. Even when Monfils found himself in complete control, leading 2 sets to 1, he found himself being broken. Lucky for him, Dolgopolov was playing well below his best. His serving was a thing of beauty, sending down 26 aces, mostly in bunches of 2-4 aces at a time!

Lu put together a very respectable performance. When you are winning over 70% of points on both your first serve and second serve, you know you are doing something right.

Lu is a tricky customer. At 28, he has been around the ATP long enough to know he needs to bring his A game right from the start to hang around with Monfils. Ideally, he will get a jump on his opponent and improve his chances. Hopefully Lu can hold his own here. I personally think he is a great chance to snag a set ofMonfils, but probably only one set at best. If not, then I have confidence in his ability to at least find his way to 5-5 in two sets of the match to ensure we get over the 19.5 line offered for Monfils.

NOTE: In his last 15 Grand Slam hardcourt matches,Monfils has gone over the provided line of 19.5 points 10 times.

Suggested Bet: Monfils over 19.5 games at $1.81 atSportsbet
Confidence: 60%
H2H: Monfils leads 1-0

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Carine06 (Flickr: Bernard Tomic) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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