2013 Australian Open Day 5

Round 2 certainly finished with a bang! 2/2 on best bets, 2/3 on next best and 1/1 on best value picks. Annoyingly the multi missed, but I am confident one isn’t too far away!

Best Bets
Stanislas Wawrinka h2h at $1.70 at Sportsbet (5 set refund)
K Flipkens 2-0 at $1.64 at Luxbet
Almagro -2.5 games at $1.74 at Sportsbet

Next Best
Kevin Anderson h2h at $1.72 at Sportsbet (5 set refund)
Cirstea/Li under 18.5 games at $1.73 at Sportsbet

Other Bets
Bartoli -2.5 at $2 at Sportsbet

Best Value
Berdych -5.5/ Tipsaravic -2.5/Almagro +1.5 at $3.56 at Sportsbet

Betfair Multi – Women
Flipkens H2H
Bartoli H2H
Zheng/Georges over 21.5
Watson/Radwanska over 17 games
Pays $6.90 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo

Betfair Multi – Men
Tipsaravic
Almagro
Wawrinka
Anderson
Djokovic 3-0

Pays $6.26 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo

Stanislas Wawrinka vs Sam Querrey

Playtime: 3rd on Margaret Court Arena

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Sam Querrey (vs Munoz-De La Nava Stanislas Wawrinka (vs C M Stebe)
Score 6-7 6-4 6-2 6-4 6-2 6-4 6-3
Time on Court 133 mins 89 minutes
1st Serves in 80/116 (69%) 52/82 (63%)
1st Serves pts won 64/80 (80%) 39/52 (75%)
2nd Serve pts won 22/36 (61%) 21/30 (70%)
Break pts saved 0/0 2/2 (100%)
Break points won 4/9 (44%) 4/9 (44%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Sam Querrey (vs Brian Baker) Stanislas Wawrinka (vs Tobias Kamke)
Score 6-7 1-1 ret. 6-3 7-6 ret.
Time on Court 66 minutes 108 minutes
1st Serves in 30/47 (64%) 43/83 (52%)
1st Serves pts won 21/30 (70%) 33/43 (77%)
2nd Serve pts won 9/17 (53%) 18/40 (45%)
Break pts saved ¾ (75%) 5/7 (71%)
Break points won 1/5 (20%) 3/11 (27%)

Notable Trends:

  • Wawrinka has won 5 in a row when his opponent is a big server
  • Wawrinka has won 5 in a row when priced between $1.50 and $2

Summary: It isn’t every day you get two players meeting up having both made it through by default. Wawrinka fought back from a break of serve down in each set to comfortably lead Kamke, who pulled the pin after losing the second set tiebreak.

Querrey was trailing by a set and 1-1 when Baker, renowned for his great comeback from years of injury, tore his meniscus, forcing him to retire.

To be honest, Querrey hasn’t been overly convincing this Australian Open. Sure, he didn’t face a break point on his serve round 1, but as a $1.08 favourite you shouldn’t be dropping sets to players ranked well outside the top 100. Moving to the second round, Baker also had the upper hand on Querrey. Querrey reported that the court was the fastest and bounciest he had ever played on at the Australian Open, which didn’t play into his hands at all.

Stan is one of the purest hitters in the game. Looking through his past history here, you see that there is just something about Melbourne that does it for Stan. Querrey has never gone beyond the 3rd round here, and basing things purely on what I have seen and heard about the first two rounds, Wawrinka holds a very solid advantage here.

Add to this, Stan has a 2-0 head to head record against Querrey, including a 5 set win on one of the hottest and windiest days of the US Open in 2010. His other win came at Indian Wells in 2009, showing that he has the ability to knock off Querrey, and those two matches were in his home country.

I think Wawrinka holds a very solid edge here, and the 5 set refund only makes me more confident.

Suggested Bet: Wawrinka h2h at $1.70 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 70% 
H2H: Wawrinka leads 2-0

Nicolas Almagro vs Jerzy Janowicz

Playtime: 3rd on Show Court 3

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Steve Johnson) Jerzy Janowicz vs Simon Bolelli
Score 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-7 6-2 7-5 6-4 6-3
Time on Court 190 mins 135 minutes
1st Serves in 82/154 (53%) 59/99 (60%)
1st Serves pts won 66/82 (80%) 48/59 (81%)
2nd Serve pts won 46/72 (64%) 17/40 (43%)
Break pts saved 3/5 (60%) 3/5 (60%)
Break points won 7/15 (47%) 6/9 (67%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Steve Johnson) Jerzy Janowicz (vs Somdev Devvarman)
Score 6-4 6-1 6-2 6-7 3-6 6-1 6-0 7-5
Time on Court 101 minutes 240 minutes
1st Serves in 53/83 (64%) 104/171 (61%)
1st Serves pts won 42/53 (79%) 73/104 (70%)
2nd Serve pts won 15/30 (50%) 30/67 (45%)
Break pts saved 5/6 (83%) 14/18 (78%)
Break points won 6/10 (60%) 9/20 (45%)

Notable Trends:

  • Almagro has won 15 in a row when priced between $1.20 and $1.50

Summary: Safe to say that Jerzy wasn’t at his best on Wednesday, in one of the more frustrating matces I have ever witnessed. He let his temper get the better of him, and that is rarely a good thing. Lucky for Janowicz, he took an injury timeout and started to gain a bit more control of his temper before going on to win. That being said, he was broken to love in the 5th set when serving for the match at 5-3 in the fifth set, so he certainly struggled to put the match away.

Almagro has just done as much as required so far. In his first match vs Johnson, there was never really a time where I genuinely thought he was going to lose, as he only lost his serve twice earlier on in the match. Admittedly his tiebreak performances weren’t flash, but Johnson played some quality tennis.

Summing up this match, I think Almagro has a clear clear advantage. His craft, ball placement and use of spin and variation should be too much to handle. From what I have seen of Jerzy, he likes the ball coming on to the racquet hard, and Almagro isn’t going to give that to him consistently.

Suggested Bet: Almagro -2.5 games at $1.73 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 70% 
H2H: No previous meetings

Kevin Anderson vs Fernando Verdasco

Playtime: 3rd on Hisense Arena

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Kevin Anderson (vs Paolo Lorenzi) Fernando Verdasco (vs David Goffin)
Score 3-6 7-6 6-3 6-4 6-3 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4
Time on Court 174 minutes 202 minutes
1st Serves in 101/134 (75%) 83/141 (59%)
1st Serves pts won 74/101 (73%) 60/83 (72%)
2nd Serve pts won 18/33 (55%) 31/58 (53%)
Break pts saved 4/7 (57%) 8/13 (62%)
Break points won 3/8 (38%) 6/9 (67%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Kevin Anderson (vs Andrey Kuznetsov) Fernando Verdasco (vs Xavier Malisse)
Score 6-1 7-5 6-4 6-1 6-3 6-2
Time on Court 106 minutes 117 minutes
1st Serves in 66/90 (73%) 53/74 (72%)
1st Serves pts won 53/66 (80%) 36/53 (68%)
2nd Serve pts won 12/24 (50%) 13/21 (62%)
Break pts saved 2/2 (100%) 4/6 (67%)
Break points won 4/9 (44) 8/15 (53%)

Summary: Going to keep this one short. Anderson is serving probably better than he ever has in his career, and that is a massive thing to do. Verdasco is going to get no cheap points today, especially on the serve of Anderson.

Verdasco zoomed through the second round matchup with Malisse, but to be honest Malisse was more of a no-show. Malisse had 14 winners to 45 unforced errors, compared to Verdasco’s 31 winners and 30 unforced errors. They aren’t great numbers by Verdasco, especially when you compare it to Anderson’s 39 winners and 16 unforced errors in his second round matchup.

Although Hopman Cup matches aren’t the best indicator, Anderson did defeat Verdasco 7-6 6-4 a matter of weeks ago. The Perth stadium is very similar in set up and conditions to Hisense Arena, the site for today’s match.

There may be a tiebreak or two in this match, but I really like Anderson to get the job done here. He will be too strong on serve, and from watching Verdasco live on Monday, you get the sense that he is going to throw in at least one dodgy service game per set. It is lapses like these that got him into trouble vs Goffin, and he could find himself in similar trouble today!

Suggested Bet: Anderson h2h at $1.72 at Sportsbet (5 set refund)
Confidence 65%
H2H: Verdasco leads 2-1 (Anderson leads 1-0 on hardcourt)

V Savinykh v K Flipkens

There’s no hiding it – I’m a Flipkens fan. What’s not to like? Flipkens is a solid, quiet achiever. Flipkens had an outstanding 2012 with some great wins over some much higher ranked players and looks very impressive again in 2013.

Valeria Savinykh, a qualifier currently ranked 159th and typically an ITF player throughout her career, has done very well to get to the third round of the Australian Open, especially winning over Cibulkova as a $5.25 underdog in the second round.

While the under 19.5 is a very tempting option, I’m going to go with a solid pick on this match. While a little short, I think it presents great value considering the amount of top level experience and talent Flipkens has over Savinykh. Flipkens to win this easily.

Suggested Bet: Flipkens 2-0 @ $1.64 (Luxbet)
Confidence: 85%

S. Cirstea v N. Li

Li has been in great form of late and this should be an easy win for the 2011 Australian Open finalist. Cirstea has had an easy run up so far however I take nothing from her – she has capitalised on every opportunity she has been given up until this point which is great to see.

Head to head, Li is 3-0 (6-3 4-6 6-3 and 6-2 6-1 and 6-2 6-2) with 1 meeting being on the hard court. (6-3 4-6 6-3 in August 2012). This match all comes down to consistency. Cirstea is at 57% for hard courts over the last 12 months. Li is an impressive 82%! Cirstea has lost 6 in a row when her opponent is a top 10 player (Li is currently ranked 6th).

Li’s impressive form should continue here and I expect this one to be over in 2 sets with Li winning easily.

Suggested Bet: Under 18.5 games @ $1.73 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 70%

M. Bartoli v E. Makarova

World number 11, Marion Bartoli comes up against world number 19 Ekaterina Makarova. Both players have been fairly convincing in the first 2 rounds with solid wins over much lower ranking opponents but this is the round where it starts to get interesting for both players in what should be a great match.

It’s round 3 in the Australian Open and it’s round 3 for Bartoli and Makarova as they have met twice in the past (2010 and 2011), both times on hard courts with Bartoli prevailing convincingly in both encounters (6-2 6-0 and 6-0 6-2).

On paper, this match looks like a close one with both players having a similar record over the last 12 months. Bartoli’s 12 month hard court record stands at 31-14 (69%) while Makarova’s is 16-10 (62%).

While the 12 month hard court percentages are the close, Bartoli has the edge here. Towards the end of 2012 Bartoli showed a lot of determination to maintain her ranking with some excellent hard court tennis. Makarova has been consistently inconsistent and any showing of that versus Bartoli and Bartoli will take the easy points each and every time.

Suggested Bet: Bartoli -2.5 @ $2.00 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 65%

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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