2013 Australian Open Day 6

It was another great day yesterday, with the best bets going 2/3, the next best 2/2, and the Betfair multi for the men saluting. As we said on twitter yesterday morning it really felt like that men’s multi was the strongest we had, so it was great that it could get over the line.

There are a few matches today I like the look of, but they have the ability to be danger games, so tread a carefully compared to the last few days. The main reason for this is these were the guys that slogged it out in the extreme heat on Thursday, so it can be difficult to assess how they will back up today.

Best Bets
Kirilenko -2.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)
Kohlschreiber h2h at $2.21 (Sportsbet – 5 set refund)

Next Best
Marin Cilic -4 games at $1.95 at Sportingbet

Other Bets
Robson over 11.5 games @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
Kuznetsova\Suarez-Navarro – Under 20.5  games @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)

Men’s Betfair Multi
Del Potro 3-0
Tsonga 3-0
Federer 3-0
Cilic H2H
Simon H2H

Pays $6.49 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo

Women’s Betfair Multi
Kirilenko H2H
Wozniacki H2H
Date Krumm\Jovanovski under 21.5 games
Azarenka\Hampton under 17.5 games

Pays $6.22 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo

Milos Raonic vs Philipp Kohlschreiber

Playtime: 4th on Show Court 3

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Milos Raonic (vs Jan Hajek) Philipp Kohlschreiber (vs Steve Darcis)
Score 3-6 6-1 6-2 7-6 6-2 6-3 6-4
Time on Court 145 minutes 106 minutes
1st Serves in 67/107 (63%) 50/76 (66%)
1st Serves pts won 55/67 (82%) 46/50 (92%)
2nd Serve pts won 25/40 (63%) 12/26 (46%)
Break pts saved 4/5 (80%) 3/3 (100%)
Break points won 4/15 (27%) 4/9 (44%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Milos Raonic (vs Lukas Rosol) Philipp Kohlschreiber (vs Amir Weintraub)
Score 7-6 6-2 6-3 6-2 7-6 6-4
Time on Court 108 minutes 109 minutes
1st Serves in 52/81 (64%) 53/88 (60%)
1st Serves pts won 45/52 (87%) 48/53 (91%)
2nd Serve pts won 17/29 (59%) 23/35 (66%)
Break pts saved 2/3 (67%) 3/3 (100%)
Break points won 5/8 (63%) 3/6 (50%)

Notable Trends:

  • Milos Raonic has lost 5 of his last 6 when priced between $1.50 and $1.99

Summary: 

Through the first six sets of tennis for the tournament for Kohlschreiber, he has only committed 33 unforced errors compared to 65 winners, meaning he is playing some great quality tennis this week, as well as holiding his serve incredibly well based on the statistics above.

When you switch to look at Raonic’s statistics in the same fields, you start to see just how good Kohlschreiber is going at the moment. Raonic had 50 unforced errors in his first match alone, cancelled out by 57 unforced errors. The statistics provided out of the 2nd round match look at though they are incorrect from the Aus Open website, so it is hard to gauge how round 2 went.

Working your way through the last few tournaments of Raonic, you see that he hasn’t exactly been performing at his best. His last solid win was knocking off Andy Murray at the start of October, but since then he hasn’t beaten any notable hardcourt players.

In that time, he has lost when priced at $1.57, $1.43, $1.27, $1.85, $1.49 and $1.66. Doesn’t make for great viewing does it? The $1.85 there was a loss to Sam Querrey 6-3 7-6.

The reason I mention Querrey here is Kohlschreiber knocked Querrey off in straight sets 6-4 7-6 only a week or so ago in Auckland. That was in a Semi Final in Auckland, where Kohlschreiber had a great week only to fall to David Ferrer in the final. We all know how David Ferrer is striking it, so to narrowly lose a first set tiebreak is a feat in itself.

If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m on Kohlschreiber today. I think this is a perfect opportunity to take adavantage of the 5 set refund promotion. That being said, I truly think Kohlschreiber takes this one out anyway, it is nice to have that refund sitting there as a little bit of security.

Suggested Bet: Kohlschreiber h2h at $2.21 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 65% 
H2H: No previous meetings

Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi

Playtime: 2nd on Show Court 2

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Marin Cilic (vs Marinko Matosevic) Andreas Seppi (vs Horacio Zeballos)
Score 6-4 7-5 6-2 6-2 6-4 6-2
Time on Court 142 minutes 89 minutes
1st Serves in 58/106 (55%) 43/71 (61%)
1st Serves pts won 44/58 (76%) 37/43 (86%)
2nd Serve pts won 29/48 (60%) 61% (17/28)
Break pts saved 11/11 (100%) 3/3 (100%)
Break points won 4/10 (40%) 5/12 (42%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Marin Cilic (vs Rajeev Ram) Andreas Seppi (vs Denis Istomin)
Score 7-5 6-2 6-4 7-6 5-7 6-7 7-6 6-2
Time on Court 119 minutes 247 minutes
1st Serves in 43/76 (57%) 111/183 (61%)
1st Serves pts won 39/43 991%) 84/111 (76%)
2nd Serve pts won 22/33 (67%) 47/72 (65%)
Break pts saved 0/0 6/7 (86%)
Break points won 4/13 (31%) 2/7 (29%)

Summary: Here we have  a matchup with two players who had two very different round 2 matches on Thursday. Let’s start with Seppi. He was on court from around 11am until 3:30pm on one of the hottest days in recent memory. He played 5 incredibly gruelling, long sets, and although he looked good on his serve, he also wasn’t overly threatening on the serve of Istomin for long periods of the day. When it is all said and done, just how well can Seppi  come back today?

Cilic got the opportunity to cruise through his second round match-up, facing no break points on his way to defeating Rajeev Ram in straight sets. Although his first round match may not have been as easy as the scoreline suggests, he did play some solid tennis to defeat Matosevic and the boisterous Australian crowd.

Some people are questioning the form of Cilic, but when I look at a player like Cilic, I like to dig a little deeper. Cilic is one of those players that thrives on the Grand Slam stage. He made the quarter finals at the US Open last year, and don’t forget that as little as three years ago, Marin made the Semi Finals here in Australia, defeating the likes of Tomic, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Roddick along the way. At 24 years of age, there is no reason to suggest that Cilic isn’t wiser or a better player for a performance like that.

Cilic loves the big stage and the Grand Slam arena, and if the past is anything to go by, he also loves to play in Melbourne. He has never been knocked out before the 4th round here, and his scalps over the years really are quite impressive (Ferrer, Almagro, Anderson, Tipsaravic, Gonzalez just to add to those mentioned earlier).

I like Cilic to win here, and I think the -4 handicap available at Sportingbet at $1.95 is a very solid option for today.

Suggested Bet: Cilic -4 games at $1.95 at Sportingbet
Confidence
: 65% 
H2H: Cilic leads 5-4 (No meetings since Oct 2011)

Y Wickmayer v M Kirilenko

Both players come into this match having not dropped a set in their 2013 Australian Open campaign. Kirilenko has been the more convincing of the two, especially considering that she has faced 2 stronger opponents in the first and second round.Wickmayer was pushed in her last match by Cepelova, just scraping by with a 7-6 7-5 win. This is Wickmayer’s issue. While she is a talented player with a strong serve and powerful strokes, she is prone to mistakes and let’s players into matches she should be closing out.Kirilenko has proven to be a solid, consistent player and has no trouble performing on a big stage like the Australian Open. This match could go to 3 sets if Wickmayer fires with her serve, however Kirilenko will prevail here due to her reliability and consistency.

Suggested Bet: Kirilenko -2.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 80%

S Stephens v L Robson

Laura Robson confirmed her status as one of the most exciting up and comers in the WTA with a huge win over Kvitova in round 2. Robson showed off her powerful strokes to down Kvitova in a 3 hour match that finished 2-6 6-3 11-9. The only downside from the match was the number of errors from both players.Robson now meets Sloane Stephens, another promising up and comer in the WTA circuit who is only 10 months older than Robson and is already being dubbed by Americans as the successor to the Williams sisters. Stephens has been in amazing form and this promises to be a great match between two players who will no doubt meet again many times in the future.Robson and Stephens met in the first round of Hobart in January with Stephens winning 6-4 7-6. This match is going to be a tough one for both players. The value bet here has to go with Robson, who showed against Kvitova that even when the chips are down – she is a fighter.Suggested bet here is Robson over 11.5 games. This covers a variety of possible outcomes for this match including Robson winning (which she has a great chance of) or Robson pushing Stephens to tie breakers or a third set.

Suggested Bet: Robson over 11.5 games @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 70%

S Kuznetsova v C Suarez-Navarro

Suarez Navarro was probably not picked by many to make it this far. After losing out in straight sets in both the first round of Brisbane and Hobart, her first round straight sets win vs a disappointing Errani as a $6.25 underdog was very unexpected. Her second round match was less convincing however as she managed to get through in 3 sets against world number 120 Yulia Putintseva 6-4 4-6 6-2.Kuznetsova has been outstanding over the first 2 rounds, not dropping a set and having only lost 6 games all up. Kuznetsova is also on a bit of a roll in 2013 as she downed big names in Sydney in Georges and Wozniacki.Kuznetsova has the form here showing promise in both Sydney and in the early rounds of the Australian Open. Suarez-Navarro has had a great run, however she does have the ability for to lose it mentally during matches and her second real challenge in the Australian Open in the form of Kuznetsova will be too much for her here.

Suggested Bet: Under 20.5  games @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 70%

Photo By Carine06 from UK (Marin Cilic) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

Leave a Reply