It was another great day yesterday, with the best bets going 2/3, the next best 2/2, and the Betfair multi for the men saluting. As we said on twitter yesterday morning it really felt like that men’s multi was the strongest we had, so it was great that it could get over the line.
There are a few matches today I like the look of, but they have the ability to be danger games, so tread a carefully compared to the last few days. The main reason for this is these were the guys that slogged it out in the extreme heat on Thursday, so it can be difficult to assess how they will back up today.
Kirilenko -2.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)
Kohlschreiber h2h at $2.21 (Sportsbet – 5 set refund)
Marin Cilic -4 games at $1.95 at Sportingbet
Robson over 11.5 games @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
Kuznetsova\Suarez-Navarro – Under 20.5 games @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)
Men’s Betfair Multi
Del Potro 3-0
Pays $6.49 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo
Women’s Betfair Multi
Date Krumm\Jovanovski under 21.5 games
Azarenka\Hampton under 17.5 games
Pays $6.22 and is eligible for the Betfair 50% promo
Milos Raonic vs Philipp Kohlschreiber
Playtime: 4th on Show Court 3
Review of Round 1 Matches
|Player (Opponent)||Milos Raonic (vs Jan Hajek)||Philipp Kohlschreiber (vs Steve Darcis)|
|Score||3-6 6-1 6-2 7-6||6-2 6-3 6-4|
|Time on Court||145 minutes||106 minutes|
|1st Serves in||67/107 (63%)||50/76 (66%)|
|1st Serves pts won||55/67 (82%)||46/50 (92%)|
|2nd Serve pts won||25/40 (63%)||12/26 (46%)|
|Break pts saved||4/5 (80%)||3/3 (100%)|
|Break points won||4/15 (27%)||4/9 (44%)|
Review of Round 2 Matches
|Player (Opponent)||Milos Raonic (vs Lukas Rosol)||Philipp Kohlschreiber (vs Amir Weintraub)|
|Score||7-6 6-2 6-3||6-2 7-6 6-4|
|Time on Court||108 minutes||109 minutes|
|1st Serves in||52/81 (64%)||53/88 (60%)|
|1st Serves pts won||45/52 (87%)||48/53 (91%)|
|2nd Serve pts won||17/29 (59%)||23/35 (66%)|
|Break pts saved||2/3 (67%)||3/3 (100%)|
|Break points won||5/8 (63%)||3/6 (50%)|
- Milos Raonic has lost 5 of his last 6 when priced between $1.50 and $1.99
Through the first six sets of tennis for the tournament for Kohlschreiber, he has only committed 33 unforced errors compared to 65 winners, meaning he is playing some great quality tennis this week, as well as holiding his serve incredibly well based on the statistics above.
When you switch to look at Raonic’s statistics in the same fields, you start to see just how good Kohlschreiber is going at the moment. Raonic had 50 unforced errors in his first match alone, cancelled out by 57 unforced errors. The statistics provided out of the 2nd round match look at though they are incorrect from the Aus Open website, so it is hard to gauge how round 2 went.
Working your way through the last few tournaments of Raonic, you see that he hasn’t exactly been performing at his best. His last solid win was knocking off Andy Murray at the start of October, but since then he hasn’t beaten any notable hardcourt players.
In that time, he has lost when priced at $1.57, $1.43, $1.27, $1.85, $1.49 and $1.66. Doesn’t make for great viewing does it? The $1.85 there was a loss to Sam Querrey 6-3 7-6.
The reason I mention Querrey here is Kohlschreiber knocked Querrey off in straight sets 6-4 7-6 only a week or so ago in Auckland. That was in a Semi Final in Auckland, where Kohlschreiber had a great week only to fall to David Ferrer in the final. We all know how David Ferrer is striking it, so to narrowly lose a first set tiebreak is a feat in itself.
If you haven’t already figured it out, I’m on Kohlschreiber today. I think this is a perfect opportunity to take adavantage of the 5 set refund promotion. That being said, I truly think Kohlschreiber takes this one out anyway, it is nice to have that refund sitting there as a little bit of security.
Suggested Bet: Kohlschreiber h2h at $2.21 at Sportsbet
H2H: No previous meetings
Marin Cilic vs Andreas Seppi
Playtime: 2nd on Show Court 2
Review of Round 1 Matches
|Player (Opponent)||Marin Cilic (vs Marinko Matosevic)||Andreas Seppi (vs Horacio Zeballos)|
|Score||6-4 7-5 6-2||6-2 6-4 6-2|
|Time on Court||142 minutes||89 minutes|
|1st Serves in||58/106 (55%)||43/71 (61%)|
|1st Serves pts won||44/58 (76%)||37/43 (86%)|
|2nd Serve pts won||29/48 (60%)||61% (17/28)|
|Break pts saved||11/11 (100%)||3/3 (100%)|
|Break points won||4/10 (40%)||5/12 (42%)|
Review of Round 2 Matches
|Player (Opponent)||Marin Cilic (vs Rajeev Ram)||Andreas Seppi (vs Denis Istomin)|
|Score||7-5 6-2 6-4||7-6 5-7 6-7 7-6 6-2|
|Time on Court||119 minutes||247 minutes|
|1st Serves in||43/76 (57%)||111/183 (61%)|
|1st Serves pts won||39/43 991%)||84/111 (76%)|
|2nd Serve pts won||22/33 (67%)||47/72 (65%)|
|Break pts saved||0/0||6/7 (86%)|
|Break points won||4/13 (31%)||2/7 (29%)|
Summary: Here we have a matchup with two players who had two very different round 2 matches on Thursday. Let’s start with Seppi. He was on court from around 11am until 3:30pm on one of the hottest days in recent memory. He played 5 incredibly gruelling, long sets, and although he looked good on his serve, he also wasn’t overly threatening on the serve of Istomin for long periods of the day. When it is all said and done, just how well can Seppi come back today?
Cilic got the opportunity to cruise through his second round match-up, facing no break points on his way to defeating Rajeev Ram in straight sets. Although his first round match may not have been as easy as the scoreline suggests, he did play some solid tennis to defeat Matosevic and the boisterous Australian crowd.
Some people are questioning the form of Cilic, but when I look at a player like Cilic, I like to dig a little deeper. Cilic is one of those players that thrives on the Grand Slam stage. He made the quarter finals at the US Open last year, and don’t forget that as little as three years ago, Marin made the Semi Finals here in Australia, defeating the likes of Tomic, Wawrinka, Del Potro and Roddick along the way. At 24 years of age, there is no reason to suggest that Cilic isn’t wiser or a better player for a performance like that.
Cilic loves the big stage and the Grand Slam arena, and if the past is anything to go by, he also loves to play in Melbourne. He has never been knocked out before the 4th round here, and his scalps over the years really are quite impressive (Ferrer, Almagro, Anderson, Tipsaravic, Gonzalez just to add to those mentioned earlier).
I like Cilic to win here, and I think the -4 handicap available at Sportingbet at $1.95 is a very solid option for today.
Suggested Bet: Cilic -4 games at $1.95 at Sportingbet
H2H: Cilic leads 5-4 (No meetings since Oct 2011)
Y Wickmayer v M Kirilenko
Suggested Bet: Kirilenko -2.5 @ $1.80 (Sportsbet)
S Stephens v L Robson
Suggested Bet: Robson over 11.5 games @ $1.77 (Sportsbet)
S Kuznetsova v C Suarez-Navarro
Suggested Bet: Under 20.5 games @ $1.67 (Sportsbet)
Photo By Carine06 from UK (Marin Cilic) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons