2013 Australian Open Day 9

Day 8 was a great way to start week 2 of the Australian Open, with 3/3 on plays posted on site and the tweeted suggested play of Simon/Murray under 27.5 games all winning.

Best Bets
Berdych vs Djokovic – Tie Break WILL be Played $1.77 at Sportingbet (you may get higher closer to match time on Betfair)
Radwanska H2H @ $1.57 (Sportsbet)
Nicolas Almagro vs David Ferrer Over 33.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet
*Update*: The line seems to be gone and the new line is 35.5 at $1.61. Ace feels that even the 37.5 at $1.90 is value for the overs in this game.

Tomas Berdych vs Novak Djokovic

Summary: A quick little stat for those who love a trend: Tomas Berdych has played 13 hardcourt Grand Slam matches that are either in the 4th round or deeper into the Slam. 11 of those 13 matches were against players ranked 12 or better. In 11 of those matches, there has been at least 1 tiebreak.

Going further to all Grand Slam matches at Round 4 or deeper, Berdych has had at least 1 tiebreak in 17 of his 27 matches.
Tomas loves to serve big and play big. In his last 11 Grand Slam matches in the 3rd round or deeper, all 11 have had a tiebreak.

Suggested BetTie Break WILL be Played $1.77 at Sportingbet
Confidence
:
75%

Nicolas Almagro vs David Ferrer

Playtime: 2nd on Rod Laver Arena

Review of Round 1 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Steve Johnson) David Ferrer (vs Olivier Rochus)
Score 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-7 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-2
Time on Court 190 mins 110 minutes
1st Serves in 82/154 (53%) 48/71 (68%)
1st Serves pts won 66/82 (80%) 37/48 (77%)
2nd Serve pts won 46/72 (64%) 15/23 (65%)
Break pts saved 3/5 (60%) 3/5 (60%)
Break points won 7/15 (47%) 6/15 (40%)

Review of Round 2 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver) David Ferrer (vs Tim Smyczek)
Score 6-4 6-1 6-2 6-0 7-5 4-6 6-3
Time on Court 101 minutes 158 minutes
1st Serves in 53/83 (64%) 65/108 (60%)
1st Serves pts won 42/53 (79%) 48/65 (74%)
2nd Serve pts won 15/30 (50%) 24/43 (56%)
Break pts saved 5/6 (83%) 7/10 (70%)
Break points won 6/10 (60%) 7/21 (33%)

Review of Round 3 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Jerzy Janowicz) David Ferrer (vs Marcos Baghdatis)
Score 7-6 7-6 6-1 6-4 6-2 6-3
Time on Court 125 minutes 117 minutes
1st Serves in 51/91 (56%) 54/85 (64%)
1st Serves pts won 44/51 (86%) 37/54 (9%)
2nd Serve pts won 29/40 (73%) 18/31 (58%)
Break pts saved 0/0 3/5 (60%)
Break points won 2/9 (22%) 6/9 (67%)

Review of Round 3 Matches

Player (Opponent) Nicolas Almagro (vs Janko Tipsaravic) David Ferrer (vs Kei Nishikori)
Score 6-2 5-1 ret. 6-2 6-1 6-4
Time on Court 62 minutes 130 minutes
1st Serves in 22/43 (51%) 65/96 (68%)
1st Serves pts won 19/22 (86%) 45/65 (69%)
2nd Serve pts won 13/21 (62%) 15/31 (48%)
Break pts saved 1/1 (100%) 11/13 (85%)
Break points won 4/9 (44%) 7/11 (64%)

Summary: Two Spainards who have been playing some high quality tennis. Since the 5 setter round one, Almagro has definitely played himself into form, playing some high quality tennis on his way to the quarter final. David Ferrer has been finding some trouble on his serve at times, but a mark of a quality player is how they can play themselves out of trouble. Ferrer has done that, although facing 33 break points through the first four rounds isn’t ideal, compared to just the 12 on the serve of Almagro.

This is sure to be an incredibly entertaining match to watch.

Previous Meetings

Ferrer leads 12-0 (4-0 on hard)

Of those hardcourt matches, Almagro won a set on 2 occasions, and pushed 4 sets out of 11 to tiebreaks and 2 other sets to 7-5.

The Final Word

This line will move. I can almost guarantee it. Almagro is playing too well for this line to be this low, regardless of what kind of head to head record between them. Almagro is serving better than I have witnessed for some time. He is serving bombs, and following it up with some incredibly impressive groundstrokes.

Ferrer isn’t playing as well as the statistics and scorelines suggest. Nishikori was horrible the other day, and injured or not his head wasn’t in the game for the majority of the match.

The 12-0 h2h is big to overcome, but when you focus in on the hardcourt matches, this match is a lot closer. The serve of Almagro is a definite weapon in the hardcourt surface compared to the clay, and he has been serving magnificently, dropping it only three times through the first four round. He has only dropped 2 sets for the tournament, and both of them have been in tiebreaks.

Whilst I agree that Ferrer is one of the best return of serves in the game, I will be mighty surprised is Almagro doesn’t get his fair share of opportunities on the serve of Ferrer too.

The only way I can see this losing is if Almagro loses the plot mentally. He has been playing some magnificent tennis of late. I have stopped short of tipping up Almagro at $5+, but I genuinely think he will do more than hold his own.

This line should be around the 37-39 line, not 33.5.

Suggested Bet: Over 33.5 games at $1.83 at Sportsbet
Confidence: 70% 
H2H: Ferrer leads 12-0

A. Radwanska (4) vs N. Li (6)

What a great match this is promising to be! 2 top players in top form going head to head for a place in the 2013 Australian Open Semi Final. Let’s start with arguably the hottest WTA player of 2013 so far – Agnieszka Radwanska.

Agnieszka Radwanska is currently on an impressive 13 game winning streak. Of those 13 games, Radwanska has not dropped a single set. The last time Radwanska dropped a set was back in October 2012 in her loss to Maria Sharapova. All 13 wins have been on the hard court. One of those wins was against today’s opponent, Na Li, in the semi final of the Sydney Apia International where Radwanska won 6-3 6-4.

One of the most impressive things about Radwanska throughout the Australian Open has been her ability to maintain her composure while under pressure. While the results of her wins on paper don’t reflect this, Radwanska has actually had some tough matches during the Australian Open however her ability to maintain her mindset and close out matches has been the highlight of her success.

Na Li has been playing some good tennis, however apart from her previous match vs Goerges has had a relatively easy run up until this point. Similar to Radwanska, Li has not dropped a set so far in her Australian Open campaign which is an impressive feat. Head to head, Li has beaten Radwanska 5/9 times (4/5 on hard court).

Here is Li’s problem. In the Australian Open so far, Li averages 26 unforced errors a match. In comparison, Radwanska averages 12. In their last meeting in Sydney, Li had 46 unforced errors to Radwanska’s 14. Li will try to power her way past Radwanska in this match however typically when she tries to do this, she overplays her shots and errors begin to appear. With Radwanska’s ability to play great tennis and handle pressure, Radwanska should see herself through to the 2012 Australian Open Semi Final.

Suggested Bet: Radwanska H2H @ $1.57 (Sportsbet)
Confidence: 80%

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Photo By Carine06 from UK (Nicolas Almagro) [CC-BY-SA-2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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