2013 Australian Open In-Play Betting

The first day of play is still underway but already we have seen a few upsets and a few big comebacks. There are always opportunities to make money with in-play trading and there were two that stuck out. All odds quoted below are from Betfair.

Australian Matthew Ebden was facing number 23 seed Mikhail Youzhny. Ebden has lost 4 in a row on hardcourt coming into this match and has been beaten by Granollers in Sydney last week in what could only be described as a choke. Youzhny at his best is a top 25 player, there is no doubt about that, but seems to simply be inconsistent. He was outclassed in the first two sets going down 6-4 and then 7-0 in a tie break in the second. Our Tennis guru Ace tweeted out after the second set was won by Ebden that all he could think back to was the capitulation vs Nishikori last year up 2-0. At that stage Ebden was $1.27 to win, the same odds Youzhny started the match. With Ebden’s history of choking which was backed up by his loss last week, this was a really good point to get a bet on Youzhny who traded in-play out to a maximum of $5.10. Youzhny went on to dominate the third set 6-2 and win a tight fourth set in a tiebreak 7-4. Youzhny traded out to $4.90 again during the fourth set with the Australian Open app even listing Ebden having won the match! Once winning that fourth set, it was all but over with Youzhny serving the match out winning 6-3.

The second was a little riskier but provided you with a very good reward. Fernando Verdasco seeded number 22 was facing unseeded and little known David Goffin. Verdasco was able to win the first set fairly easy 6-4. There were two main factors in the first set that were to follow. Goffin only won 15% of first serve returning points while Verdasco won 40% and 60% of his own first serve points while Verdasco won 85%. At this stage, Goffin was performing below his average and if you were gutsy, a lay of Verdasco could have been on the cards (we wouldn’t have). In the second set, Goffin switched on and picked up to 31% and 68% winning the set 6-3. The figure was even more damming in the third winning 35% and 81%. David Goffin in the 4th went up 2 games to 0 and there is where we look at the in-play markets. Verdasco traded out to $11 here with Goffin trading at a low of $1.10 with more than $38,000 matched at that price ($430,000 at $1.20 or less). There was one key statistic from our write up that made anything around the $10 price value at this stage to back Verdasco. This statistic was that in his last game, Goffin had 5 break points against him (against a lesser opponent) and he was unable to save any of them. He is a solid player but ends up choking in these types of positions. Verdasco had the ability to come back on his best form shown in the first set. Luckily, he was able to not only win his next service game, but also break Goffin’s next serve to go on and win the set 6-3 and the final set 6-4.

You will never get all of your in-play bets correct and yes it is annoying having to call up to place a bet, but there is some serious cash to be made, especially early in these Grand Slams, to jump on seeded players who trade out to big odds in bad positions. Just remember, if you are taking odds that are over what they should be, you will end up profiting in the long run.

Follow @Ace_TheProfits on twitter who will be discussing all things Tennis throughout the Grand Slam.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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Author

mm

Ace

I've had a passion for Tennis since I was young and haven't missed a Grand Slam ever since I can remember. I'm always happy to talk Tennis on twitter and respond to any queries so feel free to tweet me your questions.

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